French Maritime Cluster Le Faire-Savoir Maritime The Maritime Voice Presentation Mare fORUM.

10
French Maritime Cluster Le Faire-Savoir Maritime The Maritime Voice Presentation Mare fORUM

Transcript of French Maritime Cluster Le Faire-Savoir Maritime The Maritime Voice Presentation Mare fORUM.

Page 1: French Maritime Cluster Le Faire-Savoir Maritime The Maritime Voice Presentation Mare fORUM.

French Maritime Cluster

Le Faire-Savoir MaritimeThe Maritime Voice

Presentation

Mare fORUM

Page 2: French Maritime Cluster Le Faire-Savoir Maritime The Maritime Voice Presentation Mare fORUM.

FranceA maritime nation

It is ahead of many other traditional and dynamic sectors in all respects

Has exports and turnover twice as big as those in the wine and spirits industry

Employs 120,000 people more than the banking sector

Has a bigger turnover than aeronautics

Has a bigger turnover than fashion industries

Employs as many people as the entire car industry

In France, the maritime cluster:

Présentation Chiffres Appui Final

Page 3: French Maritime Cluster Le Faire-Savoir Maritime The Maritime Voice Presentation Mare fORUM.

19 500 40 000 39 000 27 100 46 000

59 750 56 000 3 300 6 000 11 000

FranceA maritime nation

311,650 direct jobs

Présentation Chiffres Appui Final

Merchant fleet

Shipbuilding and maritime equipment manufacturers Ports Offshore

Nautical industry

Fishing and seafood

Stateaction at sea

Research institutes

Organisations and training Other activities

Turnover of € 53.7 bn

12

6.37.6

8.56.24.5

1 0.6 2

5

Page 4: French Maritime Cluster Le Faire-Savoir Maritime The Maritime Voice Presentation Mare fORUM.

GROWTH & TRADE FORECASTSGROWTH & TRADE FORECASTS

o World trade overreacts to global economic trends (-11% in 2009)

o Strongest decrease in seaborne trade since the early 1980s (-2/3%)

o Growth forecasts for 2009 & 2010 are regularly revised downwards by financial institutions

-15,0

-10,0

-5,0

0,0

5,0

10,0

2007 2008 2009 2010

World GDP Growth vs TradeWorld GDP World Trade Seaborne trade

%

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LEVEL OF FLEET RENEWALLEVEL OF FLEET RENEWAL

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 June 09

Percentage of the active fleet on order by type

Oil Tanker Bulk carriers Containerships

% dwt of fleet on order

67%

41%

36%

o Percentage of ships on order still very high despite absence of new orders, and cancellations (49% of world fleet on order)

o Containerships: first to react but still overbuilt in the overpanamax segment

o Tankers: a less exposed segment -renewal justified by 2010 phase out

o Bulk carriers: the crisis is ahead of us

Page 6: French Maritime Cluster Le Faire-Savoir Maritime The Maritime Voice Presentation Mare fORUM.

DELIVERIES vs CANCELLATIONSDELIVERIES vs CANCELLATIONS

o Should be cancelled or

delayed

o Reasonable level of

deliveries required

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

DELIVERIES vs CANCELLATIONS

Cancellations as at June 2009

Total deliveries

(000 dwt)(Based on f irm orders June 2009)

0.1%0.6%

4.7%

6.6%

4.4%

5.2%

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IMPACT OF FULL ECONOMIC RECOVERYIMPACT OF FULL ECONOMIC RECOVERY

1 000

1 100

1 200

1 300

1 400

1 500

1 600

1 700

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Scenarios for the futureDelays & Cancellations = 30+30 M dwt/yr 2009-2011Surplus of deliveriesFleet required (@ +6% Seaborne 2011+) Fleet required (@ +4,5% Seaborne 2011+) Fleet required (@ +3% Seaborne 2011+)

M dwt

Full recovery to limit period of

oversupply

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OUTLOOK FOR 2009OUTLOOK FOR 2009« They died not all, but all were sick. »« They died not all, but all were sick. »

• Extreme volatility of the charter marketExtreme volatility of the charter market

• Order book surplus has not yet fully impacted the market Order book surplus has not yet fully impacted the market due to delaysdue to delays

• The real shipping overcapacity crisis is still ahead of usThe real shipping overcapacity crisis is still ahead of us

• Risk of bankruptcy of shipyards could lead to nationalism Risk of bankruptcy of shipyards could lead to nationalism and protectionist measures in the Far East.and protectionist measures in the Far East.

• Opportunities will rise and cash-rich owners will be ahead of Opportunities will rise and cash-rich owners will be ahead of the gamethe game

• Growth recovery potential of BRIC and other developing Growth recovery potential of BRIC and other developing countries may bring stronger relief than expectedcountries may bring stronger relief than expected

In shipping, the worst is never certain!In shipping, the worst is never certain!

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French maritime cluster

310 000

315 000

317 500

311 800 311 650

290 000

306 600

43,8

5453,7

48,5

37,638,8

43,4

280 000

285 000

290 000

295 000

300 000

305 000

310 000

315 000

320 000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Est. 2009

Em

plo

ymen

t

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Tu

rno

ver

B €

Page 10: French Maritime Cluster Le Faire-Savoir Maritime The Maritime Voice Presentation Mare fORUM.

French Maritime Cluster

Le Faire-Savoir MaritimeThe Maritime Voice

“embark with the CMF”

Thanks for your attention!

www.cluster-maritime.fr