12/3/2014 Freak climate in North India may damage crops; fears of El Nino phenomenon rising - Economic Times

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-03-11/news/48118098_1_climate-change-climate-scientists-extreme-climate-events 1/3

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Freak climate in North India maydamage crops; fears of El Ninophenomenon risingUrmi Goswami & Madhvi Sally, ET Bureau Mar 11, 2014, 07.24AM IST

NEW DELHI: Snowfall in the middle of March; heavy

showers in the drying-up phase of the monsoon;

catastrophic floods before the rainy season; searing heat in

parts of south India — extreme climate events seem to be

the norm in the past year, deepening concerns about

climate change.

The unusually cool and rainy weather currently prevailing in

the north is raising concerns about potato and sugar

production while mustard and wheat harvests, which were

earlier headed for a record, would be lower. To make

matters worse, the dreaded El Nino phenomenon, in which

changes in temperature in the Pacific Ocean disrupt global

weather patterns including Indian monsoon, seems more likely

than earlier forecasts.

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The bad news is that unusual weather conditions are casting a shadow on farm output and winter tourism in

snowy regions as the erratic weather changes are not predictable. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change says the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events is rising.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, however, says it is difficult to link any single season or

event to climate change. "Hence, we are likely to see such events occurring more often and with greater

intensity due to climate change in the future," IPCC Chairman RK Pachauri told ET.

Ajit Tyagi, at the ministry of earth sciences, says such phenomena need to be studied. "While the current

weather events may be a part of the natural cycle, it is possible that these are being aggravated because of

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12/3/2014 Freak climate in North India may damage crops; fears of El Nino phenomenon rising - Economic Times

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-03-11/news/48118098_1_climate-change-climate-scientists-extreme-climate-events 2/3

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climate change, which, as climate scientists have said with increasing certainty, is due to human activity."

So what can Indians expect next? To start with, "you will still have to take a hot water bath after Holi", said a

meteorologist, referring to the general expectation that summer sets in after the festival, and the current

forecasts of snow in the Himalayan states in the days ahead. "Rainfall will continue across north-west India

and gradually the temperature will increase by April-May," said DS Pai, director (long-range forecast), India

Meteorological Department.

"The winter coldwave this year is much colder than normal. Abnormal winter rainfall has covered Tamil Nadu,

Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and other states," Pai said. Parts of Uttar Pradesh are still reporting

a minimum temperature of 8 degrees Celsius, the level usually seen in January or early February.

Ladakh andPoonch saw a deficit of over 60% in precipitation this season but snowfall was excessive in

Shimla, Kullu and Mandi, which is good news for apple orchards. However, other crops would suffer.

Harvests are being delayed by one or two weeks while parts of the crop have been damaged. Mustard crop

across nearly 25,000 hectare has been damaged by rain in Rajasthan and parts of Haryana. "We were

looking at a bumper crop of 8 million tonnes this year. Now, we should be closer to previous year's production

figure of 7.82 million tonnes," said Dhiraj Singh, director of the mustard and rapeseed research institute in

Rajasthan.

Farmers had tostall harvesting of chana across Maharashtra. "More than 1.08 lakh hectare under pulses has

been damaged in Maharashtra," said a pulses trader from Mumbai. Chana, which was selling 10% below the

minimum support price of Rs 3,100 per quintal a fortnight ago in mandis, has now crossed that level.

Last week, the Indian Sugar Mills Association scaled down its sugar production estimate to 23.8 million

tonnes, from 25 million tonnes, for this season. "Due consideration has been given to weather conditions

prevailing in the past several months, including heavy rainfall in certain parts of UP as well as availability of

water in Maharashtra and north Karnataka and scarcity of water in Tamil Nadu," it said.

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The wheat crop is expected to be 1-2 million tonnes less than previous estimates. Output is now expected to

be close to 93 million tonnes, despite higher area under cultivation. The crop has been sown over 31.5 million

hectare this year, compared with 29.82 million hectare last year.

Crops may suffer much more this summer if the El Nino phenomenon disrupts monsoon rains as it often, but

not always, does. The phenomenon is watched globally as it causes excess rain in some parts of the world

and droughts in others, including South Asia. The Australian weather office had issued an alert that some

climate models suggest El Nino will affect the weather this year, but it said forecasts made at this time of the

year are not very accurate.

Last month, the Japan Meteorological Agency said there was a 50% chance that an El Nino would set in this

summer. On Monday, the agency said the probability of the phenomenon had increased. (With inputs from

Shreya Jai in New Delhi and Jayashree Bhosale in Pune)

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12/3/2014 Freak climate in North India may damage crops; fears of El Nino phenomenon rising - Economic Times

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-03-11/news/48118098_1_climate-change-climate-scientists-extreme-climate-events 3/3

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Readers' opinions (70)

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12 Mar, 2014 09:08 AMSb Nalam (india)

weather to be dismissed away as freak....lot of hopes centre around a good monsoon...if not materialising.....letus look for the expertise on el nino.....

12 Mar, 2014 03:50 AMNiladrinath Mohanty (Bhubaneswar)

I have two hybrid mango trees. My emperical observation over the years is that when the flowering is more therainfall is goof and vice versa. Last year the flowering was profuse This year the mango flowering is scanty and Ifear less rainfall.

11 Mar, 2014 06:49 PMDavidNutzuki (Toronto)

News editors must be clear on what the scientific consensus actually is; "climate change is real and ishappening and COULD lead to unstoppable warming." Never have they "believed" or agreed beyond; COULD bea climate crisis so don't be so eager to "believe". Find us deniers one scientist anywhere that is as certain thatthe end is near from their own crisis as they are saying evolution and comet hits are, as in; "inevitable" or"eventual" or "proven". A consensus of "maybe" is a consensus of nothing. Deny that and be happy any crisiswas an exaggeration and stop telling children science "believes" as much as you do.

11 Mar, 2014 05:28 PMBumper (Kolkata)

Are these due to HAARP conspiracy??? Who knows! (Search HAARP in google).

11 Mar, 2014 07:06 PMDavidNutzuki (Canada) replies to Bumper

Help an oil exec and a conservative are holding guns to my head and stuffing my pockets withcash and telling me what to think and type...help!!

11 Mar, 2014 04:46 PMrahim gautm (gurgaon)

our rulers dont know El Nino effect...its after effect...because only they are busy in ticket setting....

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