Fragmentation:

The Future of the UK

A Meeting of Minds: Advisory Distributors

Fragmentation in the UK

Local Elections

2016

Intergenerational conflict?

Source: YouGov

29%

46%

60%

64%

71%

54%

40%

36%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

18-24

25-49

50-64

65+

Leave Remain

Blue Walls and Brexit: The Precariat

Uneven Recovery

-9.0%

-8.0%

-7.0%

-6.0%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Total GDP, Quarterly Change After Pre-Recession Peak

80s recession

90s recession

Great Depression

Recent downturn

Source: ONS/Trajectory

Fragmentation in the UK

Inequality: Problem Solved?

34%

33%

34%

35%

34% 34%

33%

34%

32%

33%

32% 32%

31%

31%

32%

32%

33%

33%

34%

34%

35%

35%

36%

2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 (p)

UK Gini Coefficient, 2003/04 to 2014/15

Source: Office for National Statistics; Nowcasting household income in the UK: Financial Year Ending 2015

Across the UK, the story is different

Source: Parliamentary Briefing Paper; Regional and Local Economic Growth Forecasts

102.8 103 103 103.1

95.5 93.7 93.4 93.9

81.8

79.2 77.2

75.9

70.9 71.2 72.5

71.4

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

2008 2010 2013 2014

Gross Value Added per head: Indices where UK = 100

England

Scotland

Northern Ireland

Wales

London: A Nation Apart?

167.1 166.8 170.6

173.4

108.8 109.8 110.6 109.7

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

2008 2010 2013 2014

Gross Value Added per head: Indices where UK = 100

North East

North West

Yorkshire & Humber

East Midlands

West Midlands

East of England

London

South East

South West

Source: Parliamentary Briefing Paper; Regional and Local Economic Growth Statistics

Internal Migration

Age Driven Migration

-6000

-1000

4000

9000

14000

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90+

Internal Migration moves into and out of London by age;

year ending June 2013

net inflow outflow

Source: ONS analysis of the age and sex of internal migrants into and out of London for the year ending June 2013

London and the South

0.0% 0.5% 0.7%

2.1%

3.8%

7.4%

0.0% 0.0%

-0.7% -0.3%

0.8%

4.1%

0.0%

-0.8% -1.2%

-1.5%

-0.5%

2.1%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Change in employee levels for northern and southern England regions; 2009-

2014

Southern regions

Southern regions

without London

Northern regions

Source: Office for National Statistics; Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES), 2015c

The UK’s new class system

The Elite – 6%

Established Middle Class – 25%

Technical Middle Class – 6%

New Affluent Workers – 15%

Traditional Working Class – 14%

Emergent Service Workers – 19%

The Precariat – 15%

Source: Mike Skinner/BBC; What is your 21st Century Social Class

Clusters of Elites across the UK

Fragmented Provision UK Tech Businesses

Source: Tech City/Nesta; Tech Nation 2016 Source: Ofcom; 2014 Infrastructure Report

Life Expectancy

Source: Office For National Statistics

Life Expectancy at birth by local authority district;

England and Wales 2012-2014

82.2

87.3

81.0

84.6

80.4

80.4 84.0

83.4

84.6

84.6

87.9 85.9

82.9

82.9

84.0

80.9

80.9

79.9

81.7

80.3

82.7

81.4

79.6

80.4

79.1

Source: London Datastore; Ward Atlas

Lives on the Line

Room in the Centre vs. The Hunt for Meaning

The UK’s seen political shifts too…

27%

59%

15%

25%

46%

29%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Left (1-4) Centre (5-6) Right (7-10)

Political identification, on a 10 point scale

2000 2014

European Fragmentation European Population Change 2001-2011

Big Data and Fragmentation

Continued Fragmentation

Implications

Trajectory

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