Fragility and Conflicts Kornelia Kiss Fragility and Crisis Management Unit 2014 January.
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Transcript of Fragility and Conflicts Kornelia Kiss Fragility and Crisis Management Unit 2014 January.
Outline of the presentation
1. Understanding conflict & fragility2. Fragile States Principles3. Where are we now?4. New Deal for engagement in fragile states5. Monitoring fragile states 6. What and how to do differently?
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Understanding conflict Conflict is an inherent and legitimate part of social and
political life.
Conflict is often a precursor to positive change.
Understanding the causes of conflict: Motive Means Opportunity Triggers
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1. What is your understanding of fragility?
Definition of fragile states“A fragile region or state has weak capacity to carry out basic governance functions, and lacks the ability to develop mutually constructive relations with society. Fragile states are also more vulnerable to internal or external shocks such as economic crises or natural disasters. More resilient states exhibit the capacity and legitimacy of governing a population and its territory. They can manage and adapt to changing social needs and expectations, shifts in elite and other political agreements, and growing institutional complexity. Fragility and resilience should be seen as shifting points along a spectrum”
Which states are fragile ? • A World Bank/ADB list• An OECD list• The Commission Crisis Declaration list
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Definition of fragility by g7+ – a more dynamic point of view
"A state of fragility can be understood as a period of time during nationhood when sustainable socio-economic development requires greater emphasis on complementary peacebuilding and statebuilding activities such as -building inclusive political settlements, -security, -justice, -jobs, -good management of resources, and -accountable and fair service delivery."
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Linkages between Fragility and Conflict?
Conflict as a symptomsymptom of fragility
Conflict as a causecause of fragility
Conflict as a consequenceconsequence of fragility
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Specific features of fragile states
• Deficits in governance/lack of government capacity/legitimacy• Multiple priorities• Few implementing partners • Inability to maintain security• Inability to ensure that the essential needs of its population are met• Ungovernable flows of aid• Opaque decision-making by a small elite• Erosion of the people’s trust in the state’s formal institutions
Are the Paris Declaration principles applicable?• Ownership?• Harmonisation?• Alignment?• Managing for results?• Mutual accountability?
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FSP- can’t we do better?- 2011 analysis
Broadly on-trackPromote non-discrimination as a basis for inclusive and stable societies (6)
Partly on-track Align with local priorities in different ways in different contexts (7)
Partly off-track
Take context as the starting point (1)
Focus on statebuilding as the central objective (3)
Prioritise prevention (4)
Recognise the links between political, security and development objectives (5)
Off-track
Do no harm (2)
Agree on practical co-ordination mechanisms between international actors (8)
Act fast… but stay engaged long enough to give success a chance (9)
Avoid pockets of exclusion (10)
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DEVCO Managed external assistance Budget + EDF Disbursements to fragile and crisis countries vs other partner countries (2012, in billions €)
DEVCOTotal disbursements
2012 that can be allocated to countries:
4.9 billions €
Table 5.11 Country breakdown of European Commission development aid in 2012(Part I.- ODA + Part II non-ODA)•Does not include regional, multilateral and "unallocated" disbursements that cannot be attributed to a country.11
DEVCO managed external budget+ EDF disbursements to fragile and crisis countries by DEVCO region (2012, in millions €)
Haiti only
Total disbursements that can be allocated to fragile
countries 2012:
2.7 billions €
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Half of the aid to fragile and crisis states goes to only eleven countries (2012)
Data based on Europeaid budget+ EDF disbursements 13
DEVCO managed external budget+ EDF disbursements to fragile and crisis countries by DAC sector(2012, in million €)
sorted by biggest
Total disbursements that can be allocated to fragile
countries 2012:
2.7 billion €
(Note: analysis per DAC code results in a different total figure (2.9 DAC code file vs 2.7 billion EUR-Annual Report ) For the purpose of this analysis adjustment was made in the case of Occ. Palestine Territory+ Somalia)
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DEVCO managed external budget+ EDF disbursements to ALL countries by DAC sector(2012, in million €)
sorted by biggest
Total disbursements that can be allocated to fragile
countries 2012:
7.2 billion €
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EDF 10 initial allocation vs. EDF 11 allocationShare of fragile states in the allocation
Total 14,907million €
EDF 10 initial allocation on 7 year projection
EDF 11 final allocation
Amount allocated to fragile states increased by 9% 16
Dili Declaration 2010
Conflict and fragility are major obstacles for achieving the Millennium Development Goals
(MDGs)
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Analytical tools
New Deal country: fragility assessment Done by the nationals of the countries- only!5 days workshop usually, but need long time for validation
Conflict analysis 2 day workshop with DEVCO EAAS and acedemics
(Political Economy Analysis- discontinued in its current form)Deeper, can take 3-4 months, done by international consultants asking a lot of questions
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Why to do things differently? "Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but
expecting different results"
A. Eistein
Only 10% of the fragile countries have reached the MDGs
By 2015 half of the world's poor will be living in fragile countries
Eu Allocations to fragile and conflict affected states will increase
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The New Deal
- Fragile states, grouped in the g7+ and Donor community - set an International Dialogue on Peacebuilding and Statebuilding
- 4th High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness (Busan, 2011) launched the New Deal - a new way of engaging in fragile states, with the statebuilding and peacebuilding at the core
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PSGsPeacebuilding and Statebuilding Goals
FOCUS terms of
engagement
TRUST commitments for results
Legitimate politics Foster inclusive settlements and conflict resolution
Security Establish and strengthen people’s security
Justice Address injustices and increase people’s access to justice
Economic foundations Generate employment and improve livelihoods
Revenues and services Manage revenues and build capacity for accountable and fair service delivery
Fragility assessment
One vision, one plan
Country compact
Use the PSGs to monitor
Support political Dialogue
Transparency
Risk sharing & risk management
Use & strengthen country systems
Strengthen capacities
Timely and predictable aid
3.The New Deal (Busan)
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7 pilot countries 1. Afghanistan2. Central African
Republic 3. D.R. Congo4. Liberia5. Sierra Leone6. South Sudan7. Timor-Leste8. + Somalia
7 pilot countries 1. Afghanistan2. Central African
Republic 3. D.R. Congo4. Liberia5. Sierra Leone6. South Sudan7. Timor-Leste8. + Somalia
18 members (Union of Comoros : New Member)
(Chair)24
Pilot countries of New Deal
"Pilot" Country "Lead" Partner What happened
Afghanistan UK, Netherlands, Denmark
The Tokyo mutual accountability framework regarded as compact
Central African Republic France, EU Slowdown due to political situation
DRC Fragility assessment done
Liberia Sweden and USA
Fragility assessment done- compact in process (but on 1 PSG only)
Sierra Leone Fragility assessment done, compact forming in the background
South Sudan Denmark, UK, Netherlands
Fragility assessment done, compact was planned end of '13- situation?
Timor Leste Australia, (+EU offered)
Fragility assessment done
Somalia EU +NW: financial
1st New Deal compact endorsed, fragility assessment ongoing
Chad UNDP active25
New Deal Pilot countries and other g7+ member countries
Colour coding: New deal Pilot countries, Possible New Deal Pilot Countries, Other New Deal countries (members of g7+)
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The New Deal process
Fragility assessment workshopAnalysing the country's fragility along the 5 PSGs and their sub-dimensions
Fragility spectrum
Outputs
Fragility assessmenttext
Draft Indicators
Help: Menu of indicators(indicators working group)
Help: Guidance how to conduct a fragility assessment
Agree on priorities and form a Transition compact
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7 pilot countries have self-nominated themselves to pilot the new deal until 2015 five countries undertaken fragility assessments (Sierra Leone, Timor Leste, DRC, South Sudan, Liberia)
Fragility Assessments
The assessment asks four key questions:
1. Where are we now?
3. How do we get there?
4. How do we measure progress?
2. Where do we want to get to?
The Assessment
One Vision
One Plan
Indicators 29
Fragility assessment and spectrumDRC example
PSGPhase 1
Crisis
Phase 2.Rebuild &reform
Phase 3.Transition
Phase 4.Transformation
Phase 5. Resilience
Inclusive politics 2,2
Security 1,9
Justice 1,5Economic foundations 2
Revenues&Services 1,730
Inclusive politics
1.1 Political SettlementDiversity in representation (by gender, region and social groups) in key-decision making bodies (legislature, government, military, judiciary)Perception of representation (and its effectiveness) in government
1.2 Political Processes and Institutions Participation in elections and political processes by region,
gender and social groups
1.3 Societal Relationships Number of intra-group disputes that produce violence
Note: examples only, list is not comprehensive
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Security2.1 Security Conditions
-Violent deaths per 100,000 population (including homicides, mob violence, violence against civilians)-Incidence of rape and sexual violence-% of people that feel safe (perception survey)
2.2 Capacity and Accountability -Timely payment of police salaries-Recruitment practices and vetting processes
2.3 Performance and Responsiveness Level of confidence in police/security (%, disaggregated by gender, region, social group)
Note: examples only, list is not comprehensive
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Justice 3.1 Justice Conditions -% of victims who reported crimes to the authorities -Public confidence in the performance of justice systems
(formal and customary) including human rights mechanisms
3.2.Capacity and Accountability of Justice Institutions
Prison population in pre-trial detention past the legal limitation
3.3 Access to Justice Proximity to formal and customary justice institutions to the
public (basket indicators)
Note: examples only, list is not comprehensive
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Economic Foundations 4.1Productive Resources and Prospects for Growth % of population with access to useable and serviceable transport
networks, communication, water and energy (multiple indicators)
4.2 Jobs, Livelihoods and Private Sector Development % of labour force under- and unemployed (by youth, gender, region)
4.3 Natural Resource Management Existence and enforcement of regulatory framework for natural
resource management
Note: examples only, list is not comprehensive
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Revenues and Services 5.1 Revenues State monopoly and capacity to collect and administer tax,
customs and fees across the territory Tax revenue as a share of GDP
5.2 Public Administration Quality of public financial management and internal
oversight mechanisms (indicators from PEFA)
5.3 Service Delivery Distribution of services by region and social group Public satisfaction with service delivery
Note: examples only, list is not comprehensive
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What's new for EU programming and planning ?
Fragility elements taken into account: PEA, conflict analysis, fragility assessments;
PSGs as sectors of intervention;
Flexibility - Additional intervention to the three sectors!
Support to transition compacts or equivalent;
Ensuring synergies: ECHO, IFS, EDF/DCI, CSDP;
Using new tools (EU joint programming, JFDs, etc).
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What is a New Deal compact? A simplified, flexible mutual accountability framework:
• WHAT are collective priorities?
• HOW can these can be delivered?
A commitment by national and international partners to be:• Transparent
• Realistic
• Compliant
A forum for strategic partnership that:• builds ownership
• delivers results
• facilitates collective risk management 42
Questions when considering a compact
Is the political environment right? Is there a commitment to FOCUS & TRUST? Who should be involved? How would the compact link to other
initiatives? What are likely risks and opportunities?
Compacts require political and strategic decision making
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What is a New Deal compact?
What + How = New Deal Compact
HOW?Build mutual TRUST with donors, through:
• Transparency• Risk-sharing• Use and strengthen country systems• Timely and predictable aid
WHAT?FOCUS on the PSGs: • Inclusive politics• Security• Justice• Economic foundations• Revenue and services
A mechanism to deliver on the New Deal
Figure developed by the g7+ at the working group meeting on New Deal implementation and indicators in Copenhagen, March 2012 44
Steps to prepare a compact
Overview of resources available for collective prioritisation
Regular reviews and revisions to ensure relevance
Political & strategic dialogue between national and international partners
BUDGET ENVELOPEBUDGET ENVELOPE
• National budgets
• Bilateral funding
• Multilateral funding
• Non-ODA (if relevant)
PRIORITIESPRIORITIES
•Based on available resources
Drawing from: • national visions• national development strategies• fragility /risk assessments• other plans
DELIVERY STRATEGYDELIVERY STRATEGY
•Division of labour
•Instruments for aid delivery
•Priority capacity needs
•Transition to country systems
ACCOUNTABILITYACCOUNTABILITY
•Timeframe from regular reviews
•Limited number of performance indicators
•Principles for compliance
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Somalia: the first New Deal compact 16th September 2013, signed in Brussels Led by the Somalis, with lead support of the EU and the
donors working together – and reach out to and involvement of all donors (Incl. Turkey and Arab countries)
Parts: 1. Priority actions identified along each peace building and
state building goals 2. Principles for partnership- mutual accountability partnership
with new financial architecture for Somalia 3. monitoring arrangements +Annex: list of actions by PSG
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The New Deal is an opportunity to… learn more about the partner country through the
fragility assessment; consolidate partner countries' ownership and
leadership; work with other donors closely and coordinate; use "tailor made" indicators for fragile states; conduct political dialogue on some of the root
causes of the conflict;
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Synergies Joint Programming - New Dealin Fragile StatesNew Deal Compact Joint Programming
Similarities:
Increase aid effectiveness Increase aid effectiveness
Joint analysis Joint analysisPossible synergies/links:
Focused on subset of priorities JP and ND can "cross-fertilise" each other Development focus
Joint government/donor strategy
JP may prepare ground for a joint EU dialogue in ND with the government Joint donor response
Donor-wide…and coordinates EU
position among ND donors Mainly EU(+)Coordination – with possible division of labour (different engagements around priorities)
Deeper division of labour makes both processes
more effectiveBuilt upon division of labour/ donor comparative advantage
Indicative allocations by priorityCompatible definition of
priorities and sectors Indicative allocations by sector/donor
2-3 years timeframe – revisited yearly
Compatible mid-term timeframes
Timeframe aligned with national development plan (3-5 years) but with interim, shorter phases, flexible
Entry points Joint Programming and New Deal
Potential links in following countries: Afghanistan, Burundi, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Sudan
Programming instructions for the EDF and DCI: Contain strong references on Joint Programming in fragile states: "In the case of fragile or conflict affected states, there is a particular need for a wider group of donors present in the country/region to participate in Joint Programming"
Commonalities of the two processes: Improve impact and aid effectiveness (AE issues such as "timely and predictable aid are mainstreamed in the ND); joint analytical framework and strategy
Sequence/synergies: JP could prepare the ground for joint EU TRUST donor commitments in future NDs
Resilience/Joint Programming: potential
Joint programming with EU(+) Member States has potential to play a key role in supporting the resilience agenda
Common actors: DEVCO/ECHO/EEAS, MS Missions, partner country
Investing in resilience is cost-effective, as well as joint programming
Entry points: Ø Joint programming: joint analysis / joint response to
national dev. plan to include elements of risk/vulnerability assessments?
Ø Synergies in selecting resilience "flagship countries" that are also JP countries?
Ø Joint programming donor partners as "EU MS platform" for resilience, bringing coherence/complementarity further?
Joint programming with EU(+) Member States has potential to play a key role in supporting the resilience agenda
Common actors: DEVCO/ECHO/EEAS, MS Missions, partner country
Investing in resilience is cost-effective, as well as joint programming
Entry points: Ø Joint programming: joint analysis / joint response to
national dev. plan to include elements of risk/vulnerability assessments?
Ø Synergies in selecting resilience "flagship countries" that are also JP countries?
Ø Joint programming donor partners as "EU MS platform" for resilience, bringing coherence/complementarity further?
Aid effectiveness in Joint ProgrammingAND the New Deal as well:
P a r t n e r C o u n t r y
•Ownership & alignment
•Predictability & transparency
•Aid fragmentation
•Transaction costs
D o n o r s
•Influence
•Ability & willingness to do DoL
•Pressure to do everything in
"standalone"
•Value for money
•Visibility
“Working together is not just a moral obligation to help those less fortunate, but it is an investment in the long-term prosperity of all.”
High Level Panel Report
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