FPMA Bulletin No. 6 - July 2015Price warning level: High Moderate food Price Monitoring and analysis...
Transcript of FPMA Bulletin No. 6 - July 2015Price warning level: High Moderate food Price Monitoring and analysis...
10 July 2015
monthly report on food price trends
bulletin
Food Price Monitoring and Analysis
#6
Key messages ↗ Export prices of wheat and maize mostly increased in June on concerns
about the impact on crops of unfavourable weather during the month in major producing countries. By contrast, international prices of rice weakened further, mainly because of weak import demand. In general, cereal prices in June remained well below their year‑earlier levels, reflecting the overall continuing positive outlook for this year’s production.
↗ In East Africa, maize prices in Kenya, the United Republic of Tanzania and Uganda declined in June, after sharp increases in the previous months, as a result of recent imports and the ongoing 2015 harvests, which are, however, expected at below‑average levels.
↗ In Southern Africa, maize price increases persisted in June in the main producer, South Africa, as markets continued to respond to the tighter supply outlook in the marketing year 2015/16, following the sharply‑reduced maize production this year. Elsewhere in the subregion, prices decreased seasonally, reflecting new supplies from the nearly‑completed 2015 harvests.
↗ In West Africa, strong increases in cereal prices were recorded in coastal countries in recent months, reflecting uncertain prospects for the 2015 first season crops, due to delayed rains, as well as depreciation of the national currencies.
↗ In Central America and the Caribbean, prices of maize generally increased in June and remained significantly above their year‑earlier level. Prices of beans strengthened in most countries and in the Dominican Republic reached record levels, underpinned by a reduced 2014 harvest and low imports.
Price warning level: High Moderate [Based on GIEWS analysis]
Contents
IntErnatIonal cErEal PrIcES ............................. 2
DoMEStIc PrIcE WarnInGS .................................. 3
WESt afrIca ........................................................... 7
SoutHErn afrIca .................................................. 8
EaSt afrIca ............................................................ 9
EaSt aSIa .............................................................. 11
cIS - aSIa anD EuroPE ......................................... 14
cEntral aMErIca anD tHE carIBBEan ............. 16
SoutH aMErIca ................................................... 17
Colombia | Rice
Dominican Republic | Beans
El Salvador | White maize
Honduras | White maize
Indonesia | Rice
Myanmar | Rice
Nicaragua | White maize
South Africa | Maize
Tajikistan | Wheat flour
Uganda | Maize
United Republic of Tanzania | Maize
Domestic price warnings
The designations employed and the presentation of material in the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal or constitutional status of any country, territory or sea area, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers.
2 Food Price Monitoring and Analysis 10 July 2015
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INTeRNaTIONaL CeReaL PRICes
Export prices of wheat generally increased in June, after steadily declining in the past several months. the benchmark uS wheat (no.2 Hard red Winter) price averaged uSD 242 per tonne, 5 percent higher than in May, but still more than 20 percent lower than in June last year. the increase in June reflected harvest delays and concerns about crop quality of the 2015 wheat crop, due to heavy rain in key growing areas of the united States of america. Worries about the impact of dry conditions on crop yield potential in canada and the European union provided further support. By contrast, in the russian federation and ukraine, wheat export prices declined for the fifth consecutive month in June, reflecting overall favourable production prospects for the 2015 wheat crop, currently being harvested, and also limited trade activity.
International prices of maize also rose in June, with the international benchmark uS maize (no.2, Yellow) price averaging uSD 170, slightly up from May. this mainly reflected excessive rains in
June which slowed planting progress early in the month and caused some deterioration in crop conditions in the main producing areas of the united States of america. Slow export demand and ample global supplies, however, prevented further price increases. In general, maize export prices were well-below their levels of June last year.
In June, the fao all Rice Price Index (2002-2004=100) fell for the tenth consecutive month, shedding 1 percent from May. the market weakness was pervasive, dominating all rice market segments and virtually all origins. among the various varieties, aromatic rice prices were again under the strongest pressure, falling by 1.7 percent on large production surpluses and continued weak import demand. Prices of Indica and Japonica rice also edged lower. In thailand, the benchmark thai 100%B white rice was down 9 points, or 2.2 percent, reflecting the general tendency of falling rice prices in the country, which only spared the fully broken thai a1 super. Prices also softened in India and Viet nam as well as in the americas.
export prices of wheat and maize increased in June; those of rice continued to ease
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
International wheat prices
Percent Change
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
US (Gulf), Wheat (US No. 2, Hard Red Winter)
EU (France), Wheat (grade 1)
Black Sea, Wheat (milling)
Argentina, Wheat (Argentina, Trigo Pan, Up River, f.o.b.)
USD per tonne
Source(s): International Grains Council
242.00
200.20
194.20
226.00
4.6
4.8
0.6
-0.7
-3
-2.7
-10.6
-0.9
-22.9
-21.6
-24.8
-38.1
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
International maize prices
Percent Change
150
170
190
210230
250
270
290
310
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
US (Gulf), Maize (US No. 2, Yellow)
Argentina, Maize (Argentina, Up River, f.o.b.)
Ukraine, Maize (o�er, f.o.b.)
Black Sea, Maize (feed)
USD per tonne
Source(s): USDA; International Grains Council; APK-Inform Agency
169.95
173.20
173.00
174.80
2.4
2.9
0.4
1.9
-2
2.4
0.9
2.3
-15.8
-15.1
-27.6
-26.6
Price warning level: High Moderate
3Food Price Monitoring and Analysis
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DOmesTIC PRICe WaRNINgs
Prices of rice at high levels despite recent declines
Rice prices remained up to 54 percent above their year-earlier levels in June,
sustained by low domestic availabilities following a sharply reduced 2014
output. Prices, however, declined from the record highs of March as recent
imports, mainly from the united States of america, began to supply the markets.
Colombia | Rice
countries where prices of one or more basic food commodity are at abnormal high levels which could negatively impact access to food
el salvador | White maize
Dominican Republic | Beans
Prices of white maize continued to increase in June and were well
above their year-earlier levels
White maize prices strengthened in June and were well above their year-earlier
values. uncertain prospects for the forthcoming 2015 main season crop,
affected by dry spells, and tight market supplies following last year’s reduced
production underpinned prices.
Red bean prices increased in June after remaining stable in the previous
month and were slightly higher than in June 2014. Prices were supported by a
reduced 2014 production and low regional availabilities, as the country depends
on imports to meet its consumption requirements.
Prices of beans increasing and at record levels in June
retail prices of red and black beans increased markedly for the fifth
consecutive month in June and were at record levels, underpinned by a
reduced 2014 harvest and low import levels partly due to increased prices in
the international market.
to 06/15 Same periodaverage
3 months
12 months
Growth Rate (%)
3.2
-1.2
Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Colombia, Bogotá, Wholesale, Rice (first quality)
0.5
0.0
to 06/15 Same periodaverage
3 months
12 months
Growth Rate (%)
1.7
-0.5
Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: El Salvador, San Salvador, Wholesale, Maize (white)
3.0
-0.2
to 06/15 Same periodaverage
3 months
12 months
Growth Rate (%)
2.9
7.5
Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Dominican Republic, Santo Domingo, Retail, Beans (red)
-0.4
0.0
Price warning level: High Moderate
4 Food Price Monitoring and Analysis 10 July 2015
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DOmesTIC PRICe WaRNINgs contd.
Honduras | White maize
Indonesia | Rice
Prices of white maize increased sharply in June
White maize prices rose sharply in June, erasing the price decline of the
previous month. uncertain prospects for the forthcoming 2015 main season
crop, affected by dry spells, and tight market supplies following last year’s
reduced production underpinned prices.
Red bean prices followed mixed trends in June, increasing in the capital,
tegucigalpa, and declining in the important San Pedro Sula market. Prices
were lower than their high levels of a year earlier, but more than twice those
of June 2013.
to 06/15 Same periodaverage
3 months
12 months
Growth Rate (%)
1.5
3.9
Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Honduras, Tegucigalpa, Wholesale, Maize (white)
4.9
-0.2
Rice prices stable in June but at high levels
the average price of medium quality rice remained unchanged in June and was
only 4 percent below the record level of March. Despite good supplies from the
recently-completed 2015 main season harvest, significantly lower rice imports
in January-May this year compared to the same period in 2014 have supported
prices in recent months. Higher fuel prices have also provided support.
to 06/15 Same periodaverage
3 months
12 months
Growth Rate (%)
0.4
-2.0
Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Indonesia, National Average, Retail, Rice (medium quality)
-0.8
0.1
myanmar | Rice Rice prices on the increase and at record levels in June
Prices of emata rice, the most commonly consumed variety, rose sharply in
June, continuing the upward trend of the past months, and reached record
highs, 16 percent above those of a year earlier. the increase in prices reflects
strong export demand, particularly from china, supported by the depreciation
of the national currency against the uS dollar.
to 06/15 Same periodaverage
3 months
12 months
Growth Rate (%)
0.9
5.9
Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Myanmar, Yangon, Wholesale, Rice (Emata, Manawthukha)
1.7
-0.1
Price warning level: High Moderate
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DOmesTIC PRICe WaRNINgs contd.
Nicaragua | White maize White maize prices relatively unchanged in June but above their year-
earlier levels
White maize prices eased in June but were well above their year-earlier levels.
uncertain prospects for the forthcoming 2015 main season crop, affected by
dry spells, and tight market supplies following last year’s reduced production
kept prices at high levels.
Red bean prices declined in June, as a result of recent imports from
Ethiopia and the united States of america. Prices were well below the high
levels of June last year.
to 06/15 Same periodaverage
3 months
12 months
Growth Rate (%)
0.7
1.5
Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Nicaragua, Managua (oriental), Wholesale, Maize (white)
4.6
0.1
south africa | Maize Maize prices increased further in June and were well above their year-
earlier values
White and yellow maize prices continued their overall increasing trend in
June, despite the progress of the harvest and were well above their year-earlier
levels. Markets continued to respond to the tighter supply outlook in 2015/16
(May/april) due to an estimated 30 percent contraction in this year’s output.
Prices of white maize increased faster than those of yellow maize in the past
few months and were comparatively higher, reflecting a steeper production
decline. However, substantial stock levels of over 2 million tonnes and low
international prices limited the upward price pressure.
to 06/15 Same periodaverage
3 months
12 months
Growth Rate (%)
3.5
2.6
Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: South Africa, Randfontein, Wholesale, Maize (white)
-3.4
0.0
Tajikistan | Wheat flour Wheat flour prices relatively unchanged in June but at record or near-
record levels
Prices of wheat flour, the main staple in the country, remained relatively
unchanged in June, but at record or near-record levels, more than 20 percent
above those of a year earlier. the country normally imports around half of its
wheat consumption requirements and high prices mainly reflect the strong
depreciation of the national currency in the past months, as well as relatively
high export quotations from Kazakhstan, the main source of imports.
to 06/15 Same periodaverage
3 months
12 months
Growth Rate (%)
1.2
0.5
Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Tajikistan, National Average, Retail, Wheat (flour, first grade)
-0.4
0.2
Price warning level: High Moderate
6 Food Price Monitoring and Analysis 10 July 2015
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Uganda | Maize Maize prices still relatively high despite declines in June
Wholesale prices of maize declined in June with the 2015 first season harvest,
currently underway. Prices, however, were still up to one-third higher than their
levels three months ago, supported by an anticipated reduction of this season’s
crop, adversely affected by below-average rainfall particularly in eastern and
central bi-modal areas. Strong export demand from neighbouring countries
contributed to the relatively high prices. Maize prices in June were, however,
still below the high levels of a year earlier.
to 06/15 Same periodaverage
3 months
12 months
Growth Rate (%)
-2.5
8.3
Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Uganda, Kampala, Wholesale, Maize
1.6
0.3
United Republic of Tanzania | Maize
Maize prices still relatively high despite declines in June
Wholesale prices of maize declined in June with the progress of the 2015 main
msimu season harvest. Prices, however, were still up to nearly 70 percent higher
than their levels three months ago, supported by an anticipated reduced output,
strong export demand from neighbouring countries and uncertain prospects
for the masika season crop, about to be harvested. to 06/15 Same period
average
3 months
12 months
Growth Rate (%)
-0.4
9.6
Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: United Republic of Tanzania, Dar es Salaam, Wholesale, Maize
-5.5
-0.1
DOmesTIC PRICe WaRNINgs contd.
7Food Price Monitoring and Analysis
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WesT afRICa
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of sorghum in Western Africa
Percent Change
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
Niamey
Ouagadougou
Bamako
CFA Franc per kg
Source(s): Afrique verte
165.00
165.00
160.00
3.1
3.1
6.7
10
17.9
6.7
-17.5
10
0
Latest Price(May-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of white maize in Benin
Percent Change
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15
Cotonou
Malanville
Abomey
Djougou
CFA Franc per kg
Source(s): Ministère de l'agriculture, de l'élevage et de la pêche, O�ce national d'appui à la sécurité alimentaire
230.00
185.00
215.00
150.00
9.5
19.4
26.5
13.6
39.4
48
30.3
30.4
4.5
12.1
13.2
-14.3
Latest Price(May-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of coarse grains in Kano, Nigeria
Percent Change
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15
Maize
Millet
Sorghum
Naira per tonne
Source(s): FEWSNET
48300.0
55600.0
45700.0
5
3
-12.1
0.6
6.9
-8.6
-19.5
-18.2
-23.8
Coarse grain prices relatively stable in the sahel, while strong increases were recorded in coastal countries
Prices of locally-grown millet, sorghum and maize, the main staples
in the subregion, have shown mixed trends in recent months. In the
Sahel belt, coarse grain prices showed moderate seasonal increases
in June in some markets in Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali, after
remaining mostly stable in the past several months. In Chad, millet
and sorghum prices were relatively stable in May. although prices
of coarse grains rose in some countries, they remained generally
below their year-earlier levels, reflecting abundant supplies from last
year’s good production. In coastal countries, maize prices increased
significantly in May in Benin and Togo after several consecutive
months of stability and were higher than at the same time last
year. Seasonal price increases in these countries were exacerbated
by uncertain production prospects for the 2015 crop due to delayed
rains. Similarly, in Ghana, cereal prices were on the rise, driven by a
steep depreciation of the national currency causing the consumer
price inflation rate to more than triple over the last three years. By
contrast, in Nigeria, sorghum prices declined in May and were well
below their year-earlier levels driven by good supplies from the 2014
harvest.
In the countries affected by the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), while
a significant recovery of marketing activities was observed in Liberia,
market disruptions continued in Sierra Leone. Markets have remained
open and functional in Guinea. In these countries, prices of local and
imported rice remained stable or declined in May.
8 Food Price Monitoring and Analysis 10 July 2015
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sOUTHeRN afRICa
Latest Price(May-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of maize in Zambia
Percent Change
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15
National Average, Maize (white)
National Average, Breakfast maize meal
National Average, White roller maize meal
Kwacha per kg
Source(s): Central Statistical O�ce
1.76
2.77
2.08
-10.9
-0.6
-1.8
-4.3
-2.3
-4.9
-1.7
-7.2
-10
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of maize in Randfontein, South Africa
Percent Change
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
South Africa, Wholesale, Randfontein, Maize (white)
South Africa, Wholesale, Randfontein, Maize (yellow)
Rand per tonne
Source(s): SAFEX Agricultural Products Division
2884.18
2502.23
5.2
4.7
8.9
2.6
57.2
28.6
Prices of maize declined seasonally but remained high in most countries; in south africa prices continued to strengthen
In several countries of the subregion, prices of maize decreased
seasonally in June reflecting improved supplies from the
nearly-completed 2015 harvest, despite the estimated below-average
crops. While prices in Mozambique and Malawi remained well above
their year-earlier levels, reflecting reduced outputs this year, maize
prices in Zambia in May were below the levels of the previous year
on account of large carryover stocks following the record production
in 2014. In South Africa, strong price increases persisted in June, as
markets continued to respond to the tighter supply outlook in 2015/16
due to an expected 30 percent contraction in this year’s output. Prices
of white maize increased faster than those of yellow maize in the
past few months and were comparatively higher, reflecting a steeper
estimated production decline. In the import-dependent countries of
Namibia and Lesotho, maize meal prices continued to rise, mainly
as a result of the increased cost of importing from South africa, their
main supplier, and unfavourable domestic production prospects. In
Swaziland, maize meal prices remained stable and around their
year-earlier levels, due to the regulated price system.
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of white maize in Mozambique
Percent Change
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
Nampula
Montepuez
Angonia
Chokwe
Metical per kg
Source(s): Sistema De Informação De Mercados Agrícolas De Moçambique
9.00
9.52
8.43
10.69
-1.5
-16.7
-18.4
-10.4
-19.3
0
-6.3
-18
21.1
0
47.6
104.8
9Food Price Monitoring and Analysis
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easT afRICa
Coarse grain prices generally declined in June
In several countries of the subregion, coarse grain prices decreased
in June with the new 2015 harvests and increased imports. In
Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania, prices of maize
declined substantially in June, after the sharp increases in previous
months, with the ongoing 2015 harvests, which are, however,
expected at below-average levels. In Kenya, prices of maize declined
or remained relatively unchanged due to increased imports from
uganda and the united republic of tanzania, easing the upward
pressure on prices from the below-average short-rains harvest,
gathered in february. Maize prices decreased also in Rwanda with
new supplies from the 2015B main season harvest. In the Sudan,
prices of locally-produced millet and sorghum declined in June and
were well below their year-earlier levels, as a result of ample supplies
from last year’s bumper crop. By contrast, in Ethiopia, prices of
locally-produced cereals increased in June, following the reduced
output from the secondary 2015 belg season harvest. However,
despite the recent increases, prices in June were still generally below
their year-earlier levels reflecting good supplies overall from the
bumper 2015 main meher harvest, concluded earlier in the year. In
South Sudan, prices of cereals increased sharply in april and May in
most markets due to the escalation of conflict, the devaluation of the
national currency and fuel shortages. In the capital, Juba, between
March and May, prices of maize and sorghum increased by 44 and
60 percent, respectively, while prices of wheat more than doubled.
In Somalia, prices of cereals remained unchanged or increased in
most monitored markets in June as the lean season progressed.
However, they declined in the capital, Mogadishu. Prices were well
below the high levels of June last year.
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of maize in Uganda
Percent Change
200300400500600700800900
10001100
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
Kampala
Lira
Busia
Uganda Shilling per kg
Source(s): Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network
664.38
650.37
701.25
-18.4
-17.2
-16.1
31.1
26.3
20.8
-21.5
-20.6
-25.1
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of maize in the United Republic of Tanzania
Percent Change
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
Dar es Salaam
Arusha
Iringa
Tanzanian Shilling per kg
Source(s): Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network
492.67
575.00
491.77
-27.6
8.6
-31.6
33.9
67.3
32.6
1.1
18.2
-10.2
10 Food Price Monitoring and Analysis 10 July 2015
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easT afRICa contd.
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of millet in the Sudan
Percent Change
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
El Gedarif
Khartoum
Port Sudan
El Obeid
Sudanese Pound per tonne
Source(s): Food Security information for Action (SIFSIA)
3491.18
3382.50
4647.50
3942.95
-7
-8.9
-1.7
-1
-11.8
-14.6
-3.4
-6.4
-38.2
-45.1
-29.6
-37.6
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of maize in Ethiopia
Percent Change
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
Bahirdar
Diredawa
Addis Ababa
Mekele
Ethiopian Birr per tonne
Source(s): Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise
4200.00
5733.30
5246.70
5000.00
5
7.5
21.2
13.7
1.2
8.2
19
6.8
-20.8
2.7
-0.6
-13
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of maize and sorghum in Somalia
Percent Change
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
Baidoa, Sorghum (red)
Marka, Maize (white)
Mogadishu, Sorghum (red)
Mogadishu, Maize (white)
Somali Shilling per kg
Source(s): Food Security Analysis Unit
5560.00
9825.00
8000.00
10600.0
3.9
7.7
-14
0
5.3
9.8
0
0
-10.6
-4.3
-14
0
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of maize in Kenya
Percent Change
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
Nairobi
Nakuru
Kisumu
Kenyan Shilling per tonne
Source(s): Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network
35159.0
28111.0
34691.0
1.9
-9
0.3
51.8
44
26.7
0.5
-19
-8.4
easT afRICa contd.
11Food Price Monitoring and Analysis
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10 July 2015
easT asIa
Prices of rice and wheat flour generally stable in June
In most countries of the subregion, domestic rice prices showed
little change in June compared to the previous month. In India, the
downward pressure from the recently-harvested 2014/15 secondary
season crops was offset by a decline in output following unfavourable
weather and a recent increase in the Minimum Support Price
(fPMa food Policies). In Indonesia, average prices of rice remained
stable in June but close to their peaks of March. Despite the good
supplies from the recently-completed 2015 main season harvest,
significant lower rice imports in January-May this year, compared with
the same period in 2014, have supported prices in recent months.
Higher fuel prices have also provided support. In Sri Lanka, prices
remained relatively unchanged for the third consecutive month in
June and were only slightly higher than their year-earlier levels. Price
declines were reported in Bangladesh, with good supplies from
the 2015 boro and the onset of the aus harvests and in exporters,
Viet Nam and Thailand, mainly as a result of sluggish export
demand. By contrast, rice prices continued to increase in Myanmar
and reached record highs in June, mainly underpinned by sustained
export demand, coupled with the depreciation of the national currency
since mid-april. Strong exports in recent months also supported
prices in Cambodia. Wheat and wheat flour prices in the subregion
remained overall unchanged in June and below their levels at the
same time last year. In Pakistan, ongoing procurement purchases and
in India a reduction in this year’s output provided support to prices
and offset the downward pressure from the recently-completed 2015
main season harvests. In China, wholesale prices of wheat declined
markedly in June as a result of improved supplies from the 2015 main
harvest, just completed and estimated at record levels.
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of rice in India
Percent Change
25
26
27
2829
30
31
32
33
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
Chennai
Mumbai
New Delhi
Indian Rupee per kg
Source(s): Ministry of Consumer A�airs
30.00
30.00
31.09
0
0
0.3
-3.4
0
7.2
-6.2
0
6
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of rice in Indonesia
Percent Change
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
National Average, Rice (medium quality)
Rupiah per kg
Source(s): Ministry of Trade
9929.62 0.4 -4.3 12.9
12 Food Price Monitoring and Analysis 10 July 2015
for more information visit the fPMa website here
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of rice and wheat flour in Colombo, Sri Lanka
Percent Change
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
Rice (white)
Wheat (�our)
Sri Lanka Rupee per kg
Source(s): Department of Census and Statistics
70.04
86.30
-0.3
0.4
-4.6
-0.2
2.3
-12.8
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of rice in An Giang, Viet Nam
Percent Change
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
An Giang, Rice (25% broken)
An Giang, Rice (20% broken)
Dong per kg
Source(s): Agroinfo
6740.00
6810.00
-2.3
-2
-4
-5.2
-7.9
-8
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of rice in Bangkok, Thailand
Percent Change
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
Rice (25% broken)
Rice (5% broken)
Baht per kg
Source(s): Department of Internal Trade, Ministry of Commerce
10.77
11.31
-0.7
-2
-3
-5.5
0
-3.2
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of rice and wheat flour in Dhaka, Bangladesh
Percent Change
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
Wheat (�our)
Rice (coarse- Guti/ Sharna)
Taka per kg
Source(s): Department of Agriculture Marketing (DAM), Bangladesh
29.40
31.18
0.6
-3.1
-6.9
-8.9
-8.4
-12.2
easT asIa contd.
13Food Price Monitoring and Analysis
for more information visit the fPMa website here
10 July 2015
easT asIa contd.
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of rice in Cambodia
Percent Change
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
Phnom Penh
Kampong Chhnang
Banteay Meanchey
Battambang
Riel per kg
Source(s): Cambodia Agricultural Market Information System
1600.00
1663.00
1350.00
1300.00
0
4.3
3.8
4
0
4.5
3.8
9.9
0
-6.4
-25
8.3
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of wheat in China
Percent Change
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
Hebei
Jiangsu
Yuan Renminbi per tonne
Source(s): China National Grain & Oils Information Center
2465.00
2305.00
-5
-9.1
-5.1
-9.6
-0.9
-4.4
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of rice in Yangon, Myanmar
Percent Change
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
Rice (Emata, Manawthukha)
Kyat per kg
Source(s): E-Trade Myanmar
443.97 11.8 21.1 16.9
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of wheat and wheat flour in Pakistan
Percent Change
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
Karachi, Wheat
Karachi, Wheat (�our)
Lahore, Wheat
Lahore, Wheat (�our)
Pakistan Rupee per kg
Source(s): Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
35.00
40.31
32.38
36.30
0
0
-0.9
-1.8
0
-2.4
-7.9
-6.6
2.9
-5.8
-1.9
-3.5
14 Food Price Monitoring and Analysis 10 July 2015
for more information visit the fPMa website here
CIs - asIa aND eUROPe
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of wheat flour in Tajikistan
Percent Change
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
Dushanbe
Khatlon
Sughd
National Average
Somoni per kg
Source(s): Statistical Agency under President of the Republic of Tajikistan
3.50
3.50
3.28
3.43
0
1.4
0.9
0.9
1.4
4.5
3.8
3.3
20.7
22.8
23.8
22.5
Domestic prices of wheat and wheat flour generally stable in June but higher than the corresponding period last year
In importing countries of the subregion, prices of the main staple,
wheat flour, remained overall unchanged in June but at levels above
those of a year earlier, especially in low-Income food-Deficit countries,
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, after sustained increases in the past
year due to the depreciation of the national currencies. In exporter
the Russian Federation, domestic prices of wheat and wheat flour
were also stable in June, after the declines of the previous months
and were above their values at the same time last year. In Ukraine,
domestic prices dropped further in June with the approach of the new
harvest and ample availabilities from the 2014 record wheat output,
but they remained 30-50 percent higher than their year-earlier values.
However, in these countries, export prices of milling wheat declined
for the fourth consecutive month in June, mainly reflecting favourable
production prospects for the 2015 winter wheat crop, about to be
harvested. overall, export prices of wheat were one-third below their
levels a year earlier. In Kazakhstan, wheat export quotations in June
remained relatively stable, as a result of reduced import demand from
neighbouring countries due to the beginning of the 2015 wheat harvest.
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of wheat flour in Kyrgyzstan
Percent Change
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
Bishkek
Naryn
Jalal-Abad
National Average
Som per kg
Source(s): National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic
34.06
33.74
34.25
34.72
0
0
-0.2
-0.3
0.1
0.9
-2
-0.4
10.6
9.7
5.4
9.3
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of wheat flour and bread in Georgia
Percent Change
1.4
1.45
1.5
1.551.6
1.65
1.7
1.75
1.8
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
National Average, Bread
National Average, Wheat (�our)
Lari per kg
Source(s): National Statistics O�ce of Georgia
1.59
1.73
0
0.6
-0.6
1.8
2.6
7.5
15Food Price Monitoring and Analysis
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10 July 2015
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Retail prices of wheat flour and bread in Armenia
Percent Change
350
400
450
500
550
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
National Average, Bread (high grade �our)
National Average, Wheat (�our, high grade)
Armenian Dram per kg
Source(s): National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia
504.40
414.80
0
0
0
-3
5.7
-1.2
CIs - asIa aND eUROPe contd.
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of wheat and wheat flour in the Russian Federation
Percent Change
5000
7000
9000
11000
13000
15000
17000
19000
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
National Average, Wheat (Milling, 3rd class, o�er, EXW)
Volga region, Wheat (�our, highest grade, o�er, EXW)
Central Black Earth, Wheat (�our, highest grade, o�er, EXW)
Southern region, Wheat (�our, highest grade, o�er, EXW)
Russian Ruble per tonne
Source(s): APK-Inform Agency
9658.33
15500.0
14800.0
14766.6
-1.4
0
-0.3
-0.9
-11
-7.9
-10.3
-8.6
4.9
7.6
3.5
5.5
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Export prices of milling wheat
Percent Change
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
Kazakhstan, Wheat (milling)
Russian Federation, Wheat (milling, o�er, f.o.b., deep-sea ports)
Ukraine, Wheat (milling, o�er, f.o.b.)
USD per tonne
Source(s): APK-Inform Agency
270.00
193.25
190.00
0.8
-3.5
-4.9
-2.7
-12.2
-13.4
0
-31.5
-31
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of wheat and wheat flour in Ukraine
Percent Change
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
National Average, Wheat (3rd class, bid, EXW, processing)
National Average, Wheat (�our, �rst grade, o�er, EXW)
National Average, Wheat (�our, highest grade, o�er, EXW)
Hryvnia per tonne
Source(s): APK-Inform Agency
3187.50
5000.00
5150.00
-9.9
-10.3
-9.3
-18.3
-29.6
-30.4
29.2
51.6
33.8
16 Food Price Monitoring and Analysis 10 July 2015
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CeNTRaL ameRICa aND THe CaRIbbeaN
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Reatil prices of beans in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Percent Change
20
25
30
3540
45
50
55
60
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
Beans (red)
Beans (black)
Dominican Peso per Libra
Source(s): Secretaria de Estado de Agricultura
54.59
45.83
8.2
3.9
24.1
31.3
41.1
53.1
Prices of white maize and beans on the increase in most countries of the subregion
In most countries of the subregion, prices of maize and beans
increased in June with the progress of the lean season to end in
September.
Prices of white maize rose in Honduras and El Salvador in June,
while they eased in Nicaragua after the increases of the previous
two months. In these countries, prices were above their year-earlier
values as a result of tight availabilities, following the reduced 2014/15
aggregate production affected by dry weather. In Guatemala, the
largest producer in the subregion after Mexico, white maize prices
increased slightly in June after the declines in the preceding months
with the 2014/15 harvest in the northern region. Prices, however,
remained somewhat below their year-earlier levels, reflecting good
supplies from last year’s harvests and adequate imports from Mexico.
In Mexico, prices of white maize in June remained unchanged as a
result of the Government’s price support measures and were lower
compared to a year earlier.
Prices of staple red beans increased in June in El Salvador,
the main importer of the subregion, and in Honduras. By contrast,
they declined in Nicaragua, after a sharp increase in the previous
month, following recent imports from Ethiopia and the united States
of america. Prices were below or around the high levels of June
last year. In Guatemala, where black beans are the variety mainly
produced and consumed, prices continued to seasonally increase
in June, as new products will not enter the market until September
with the next harvest. In Mexico, black bean prices remain stable
and below their levels a year earlier, as a result of the 2014 bumper
harvest. In the Dominican Republic, prices of red and black beans
increased further in June and were at record highs, underpinned by
a reduced 2014 harvest and low imports.
In Haiti, prices of main staple imported rice continued unchanged
in June in major markets and were around their year-earlier values,
mostly reflecting trends in export prices from the united States of
america, the country’s main supplier. By contrast, maize meal prices
rose markedly in main markets of Port-au-Prince, the capital city,
and Jeremie and were higher than in June last year, underpinned by
reduced domestic availabilities due to a shortfall in 2014 production.
Bean prices increased sharply in recent months due to reduced
2014/15 harvests and low imports.
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of white maize in Central America
Percent Change
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
Guatemala, Guatemala City
El Salvador, San Salvador
Honduras, Tegucigalpa
Nicaragua, Managua (oriental)
USD per tonne
Source(s): Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganadería y Alimentación; Dirección General de Economía Agropecuaria, MAG; SIMPAH
389.40
443.74
453.64
377.96
3.8
1.4
12.4
-1.7
1.3
-1.6
11
5.4
-1.5
20.6
18.8
9.4
17Food Price Monitoring and Analysis
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10 July 2015
sOUTH ameRICa
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of yellow maize in South America
Percent Change
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
Ecuador, Quito
Brazil, São Paulo
Argentina, Rosario
Peru, Lima
USD per tonne
Source(s): Sistema de Información Nacional de Agricultura, Ganadería, Acuacultura y Pesca - SINAGAP; Agrolink; Bolsa de Cereales; Ministerio de Agricultura y Riego
400.00
118.36
103.84
380.00
-14.9
-6.2
-6.5
-2.6
-18.4
-13.4
-6.4
2.7
2.6
-35.2
-32.8
-15.6
Wheat flour prices overall stable in June; those of maize generally declined
In most countries of the subregion, prices of wheat flour remained
stable in June and below their levels a year earlier. In main producer
and exporter, Argentina, prices were about 40 percent lower than
their values in June last year, as a result of the bumper production in
2014 and ample stocks. In Bolivia, which largely depends on imports
from argentina to meet its consumption requirements, prices of wheat
flour in June were more than one-third lower than their year-earlier
levels. In the capital city markets of Bogotá, Colombia, prices were
stable but higher than in June last year due to the sharp depreciation
of the national currency in recent months. Wheat flour prices were
also stable in most markets in Ecuador. In Brazil, reduced imports in
the previous months, coupled with the depreciation of the national
currency, underpinned prices for the second consecutive month in
June, when they reached record highs.
Yellow maize prices continued to decline across the subregion
in June and were well below their levels a year earlier, pressured
by good recently-concluded or ongoing 2015 harvests. By
contrast, however, in Colombia, prices strengthened in June and
were higher than a year earlier mainly due to last year’s reduced
harvest.
Prices of staple rice declined in Brazil, with the arrival into
the markets of the recently-completed 2014/15 harvest, which is
estimated at a good level. Similarly, in Colombia, rice prices declined
for the third consecutive month in June following recent imports,
mainly from the united States of america. Prices, however, remained
well above their levels in June last year, after sustained increases
in the previous months due to the sharply reduced production in
2014. In Peru, rice prices remained unchanged compared to May
and around the high levels of a year earlier. In Ecuador, prices
of rice were relatively stable in June but above the corresponding
period last year, reflecting low stocks as a result of the reduced
output in 2014.
Latest Price(Jun-15) 1M 3M 1Y
Wholesale prices of wheat flour in South America
Percent Change
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
Brazil, São Paulo
Bolivia, Santa Cruz
Argentina, Buenos Aires
Uruguay, National Average
USD per tonne
Source(s): Instituto de Economia Agrícola; Servicio de Información y Análisis de Mercados Agropecuarios, Bolivia; Bolsa de Cereales; Unidad Centralizada de Adquisiciones - Ministerio de Economia y �nanzas
662.00
506.22
310.00
670.00
2.4
0.1
0
-1.5
9.3
0.1
-3.1
-4.3
-25.3
-34
-44.6
-17.3
This bulletin is prepared by the Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Team in the Trade and Markets Division
of FAO. It contains latest information and analysis on domestic prices of basic foods mainly in developing countries,
complementing FAO analysis on international markets. It provides early warning on high food prices at country level
that may negatively affect food security.
This report is based on information available up to early July 2015.
All the data used in the analysis can be found in the FPMA Tool at: www.fao.org/giews/pricetool
For more information visit the FPMA Website at: www.fao.org/giews/food-prices
Enquiries may be directed to:Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA)Trade and Markets Division (EST) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)Viale delle Terme di Caracalla00153 Rome, ItalyE-mail: [email protected]
Disclaimer
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this
information product do not imply the expression of any opinion
whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of
the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status
of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning
the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific
companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have
been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or
recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that
are not mentioned.
The views expressed in this information product are those of the
author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO.
© FAO, 2015
Food Price Monitoring and Analysis | 10 July 2015 I4778E/1/07.15