Foundations of Research 1 Introduction to critical thinking and science This is a PowerPoint Show Click slide show to start it. Click through it by pressing any key. Focus & think about each point; do not just passively click. To print: Click File then Print. Under print what click handouts (3 slides per page). This is a PowerPoint Show Click slide show to start it. Click through it by pressing any key. Focus & think about each point; do not just passively click. To print: Click File then Print. Under print what click handouts (3 slides per page). Dr. David J. McKirnan, 2014 The University of Illinois Chicago Do not use or reproduce without permission Part 1. Cranach, Tree of Knowledge [of Good and Evil] (1472) Foundations of Research 2 Core components of science What is science? Content Facts & findings Content Facts & findings Methods Rules for collecting evidence Methods Rules for collecting evidence Values An approach to understanding. Values An approach to understanding. What makes an idea or a statement about the world scientific? We will think about three elements of a scientific approach: Foundations of Research 3 Core components of science What is science? Values: Science combines Critical thought with Empiricism We strive to understand the Natural World The core purpose is Theory: how do natural processes work? Theory development rests on Evidence : What empirical findings support your hypothesis. Scientific thinking is Skeptical : how do you know that?, is that logically coherent. Scientific Integrity demands honest reporting and interpretation of empirical findings. Values: Science combines Critical thought with Empiricism We strive to understand the Natural World The core purpose is Theory: how do natural processes work? Theory development rests on Evidence : What empirical findings support your hypothesis. Scientific thinking is Skeptical : how do you know that?, is that logically coherent. Scientific Integrity demands honest reporting and interpretation of empirical findings. Statements about ultimate purposes or meaning are beliefs, not scientific facts. Many scientific studies describe the world, but the bottom line is to understand how things work. If nothing else, a scientific statement is grounded in observable facts or findings. Critical thinking is the core of a scientific or empirical attitude. Personal values underlie the integrity of science as a whole. Foundations of Research 4 Core components of science What is science? Content Empirical findings: Facts Ways of classifying nature Well supported theories Content Empirical findings: Facts Ways of classifying nature Well supported theories Methods Objective approaches Measurement & observational studies Experiments Methods Objective approaches Measurement & observational studies Experiments Values: Critical thought + Empiricism Values: Critical thought + Empiricism Of course, the core of science is factually describing the natural world. Classification systems or taxonomies e.g., diagnoses, personality types, genus and species are important elements of scientific description. Basic theories learning theory, evolution are well enough established to represent facts. Objective, empirical data collection methods are designed to overcome personal biases and error. Measurement or direct observation e.g., tracking disease rates is one major stream of scientific research. Experiments are often the gold standard of scientific research. Foundations of Research 5 Content Facts & findings Content Facts & findings Methods Rules of evidence Methods Rules of evidence Values How we understand. Values How we understand. We will use this frame work for these introductory modules: Active Actively explain the world. Skeptical; Critically evaluate explanations. Creative Develop alternative explanations. Part I will address the Values component . We mostly talk about Critical Thinking We will use a critical thinking perspective to understand the basic process of scientific (or empirical) thought. Part II will introduce Content and Methods. Foundations of Research 6 Core components of science What is science? Content Empirical findings: Facts Ways of classifying nature Well supported theories Content Empirical findings: Facts Ways of classifying nature Well supported theories Methods Objective approaches Basic experimental design Specific research procedures Science is public Methods Objective approaches Basic experimental design Specific research procedures Science is public Values: Critical thought + Empiricism Understand the Natural World Theory: How or Why? Evidence: How do you know? Values: Critical thought + Empiricism Understand the Natural World Theory: How or Why? Evidence: How do you know? Science and empiricism are about explaining things events in the world. How do we explain something? What makes a good or bad explanation? How do we determine if an explanation is valid or meaningful? Being clear about how we explain things is called Critical Thought ; Science and empiricism are about explaining things events in the world. How do we explain something? What makes a good or bad explanation? How do we determine if an explanation is valid or meaningful? Being clear about how we explain things is called Critical Thought ; thinking about how we think. Foundations of Research 7 Emotions and critical thinking Why is our culture so partisan? Why does it seem that Liberals and Conservatives cannot see eye-to-eye on anything? Read two articles: First, by Nicholas Kristof in the New York Times; liberals and conservatives may differ in core emotional dispositions.New York Times Lets begin with an exploration of why or how critical thinking may be important. Write a few paragraphs: How strongly does each author make his point? What evidence or logic did (did not!) convince you of the authors points. Second, by Lane Wallace in The Atlantic; our partisan impasse will only be solved by critical thinking; discussing emotions is a distraction.Atlantic Click for CivilPolitics.org: Fight Club Politics, a history of partisanship in U.S. politics.CivilPolitics.org Shutterstock Foundations of Research 8 Values: Critical thought + Empiricism Values: Critical thought + Empiricism Critical thinking Core question for critical thought: What is the question? What actually needs explaining? Does this explanation really fit the question? What assumptions are you making? Are you making assumptions you are not aware of that may not be appropriate. What empirical evidence is there? How do you know if the evidence is valid and reliable? Does it make sense? Is it logically coherent? Does it jibe with what we already know about the world? What other explanation or interpretation makes more sense? What is the most simple way to explain this? How do you know that? Foundations of Research 9 What is the question; What needs explaining? Critical thinking; How do you know that? Here is an interesting question. Which might be the major factor responsible for the rise in carbon dioxide ("greenhouse gases") in our atmosphere? (There is not likely to be much consensus as to the 'correct' answer. Think critically and objectively about this issue.) b. c. d. Sometimes the stated question is not what the explanation is actually addressing This is from a critical thinking (?) quiz. How does it show sloppy thought? a.A hole in the ozone layer. Excess carbon dioxide due to the loss of tropical forests. The carbon dioxide from utility power plants. The major source of carbon dioxide is likely coming from volcanoes, vents in our earth's crust, the oceans, and weathering of the earth's crust. Look at it for a minute and try to figure it out Foundations of Research 10 What is the question; What needs explaining? Critical thinking; How do you know that? Here is an interesting question. Which might be the major factor responsible for the rise in carbon dioxide ("greenhouse gases") in our atmosphere?? (There is not likely to be much consensus as to the 'correct' answer. Think critically and objectively about this issue.) b. c. d. Sometimes the stated question is not what the explanation is actually addressing This is from a critical thinking (?) quiz. How does it show sloppy thought? Click on each answer letter in turn to see what is going on here: a.A hole in the ozone layer. Excess carbon dioxide due to the loss of tropical forests. The carbon dioxide from utility power plants. The major source of carbon dioxide is likely coming from volcanoes, vents in our earth's crust, the oceans, and weathering of the earth's crust. Foundations of Research Here is an interesting question. Which might be the major factor responsible for the rise in carbon dioxide ("greenhouse gases") in our atmosphere?? (There is not likely to be much consensus as to the 'correct' answer. Think critically and objectively about this issue.) A hole in the ozone layer. Excess carbon dioxide due to the loss of tropical forests. The carbon dioxide from utility power plants. The major source of carbon dioxide is likely coming from volcanoes, vents in our earth's crust, the oceans, and weathering of the earth's crust. a. b. c. d. Critical thinking; How do you know that? Not correct. The loss of ozone increases ultraviolet light, which is harmful but does not affect climate change. Return to the question Return to the question Foundations of Research Here is an interesting question. Which might be the major factor responsible for the rise in carbon dioxide ("greenhouse gases") in our atmosphere?? (There is not likely to be much consensus as to the 'correct' answer. Think critically and objectively about this issue.) A hole in the ozone layer. Excess carbon dioxide due to the loss of tropical forests. The carbon dioxide from utility power plants. The major source of carbon dioxide is likely coming from volcanoes, vents in our earth's crust, the oceans, and weathering of the earth's crust. a. b. c. d. Critical thinking; How do you know that? Both of these are important sources of C0 2 increase. The question designer considered both to be false (not the major source). Return to the question Return to the question Foundations of Research 13 Critical thinking; How do you know that? 19. Here is an interesting question. Which might be the major factor responsible for the rise in carbon dioxide ("greenhouse gases") in our atmosphere?? (There is not likely to be much consensus as to the 'correct' answer. Think critically and objectively about this issue.) A hole in the ozone layer. Excess carbon dioxide due to the loss of tropical forests. The carbon dioxide from utility power plants. The major source of carbon dioxide is likely coming from volcanoes, vents in our earth's crust, the oceans, and weathering of the earth's crust. a. b. c. d. This item is scored as being correct. See if you can figure out why it is not. Does the answer actually address the question? Foundations of Research 14 Critical thinking; How do you know that? 19. Here is an interesting question. Which might be the major factor responsible for the rise in carbon dioxide ("greenhouse gases") in our atmosphere?? (There is not likely to be much consensus as to the 'correct' answer. Think critically and objectively about this issue.) A hole in the ozone layer. Excess carbon dioxide due to the loss of tropical forests. The carbon dioxide from utility power plants. The major source of carbon dioxide is likely coming from volcanoes, vents in our earth's crust, the oceans, and weathering of the earth's crust. a. b. c. d. The answer tells us where C0 2 comes from at all volcanoes etc. However, the question does not ask about where C0 2, comes from generally.... If you read closely you can see it asks about the rise in C0 2. Since these general causes of C0 2 have been stable since the industrial revolution, they cannot account for a rise in C0 2. Foundations of Research 15 Another frame for these options is: Why is there climate on the planet at all, vs. Why is the planets climate changing. By giving a correct answer to the wrong question..the writer steers us away from recognizing empirical evidence C0 2 levels have been rising substantially since the late 19 th century, coincident with the industrial revolution. Global temperatures have tracked perfectly with increasing C0 2. Theories of Global warming are strongly supported by both temperature observations* and counts of extreme weather events. Critical thinking; How do you know that? *including ocean temperatures Foundations of Research 16..the writer steers us away from recognizing empirical evidence...and distracts us from more substantive questions. How do we precisely gauge human contribution to C0 2 increase? How do air temperature increases relate to ocean temperature? Are climate change theories predicative as well as descriptive? Another frame for these options is: Why is there climate on the planet at all, vs. Why is the planets climate changing. By giving a correct answer to the wrong question Critical thinking; How do you know that? Foundations of Research 17 What is the question; What needs explaining? There are lots of examples of explanations that do not actually address the questions. From a recent radio show where people call in their answers to common questions: Why does my cat suddenly show up and hang around when I am sitting on the toilet? Because cats like to lay on bathroom floor tile. Answer : Question: What is the caller really asking? Does this answer actually explain that? Click for the answer. Of course not. The questioner wanted to know why cats hang around specifically at that time. The answer explained why cats may generally be in the bathroom (particularly on a hot day), not why they magically appear when you are sitting on the toilet Being clear on what the question actually is may seem obvious, but can take some thought to get right Of course not. The questioner wanted to know why cats hang around specifically at that time. The answer explained why cats may generally be in the bathroom (particularly on a hot day), not why they magically appear when you are sitting on the toilet Being clear on what the question actually is may seem obvious, but can take some thought to get right Foundations of Research 18 What is the question? What assumptions are you making? What empirical evidence is there? Does it make sense? What other explanation or interpretation makes more sense? How do you know that? Critical thinking; How do you know that? Foundations of Research 19 What assumptions are you making Assumptions often critically affect the inferences we make. Imagine a situation A man is lying in the gutter What Inference might you make about it? That man is a vagrant. That man needs help. Example taken from The Critical Thinking Community.Critical Thinking Community What is the question? Critical thinking; How do you know that? Foundations of Research 20 Assumptions often critically affect the inferences we make. Imagine a situation A man is lying in the gutter What Inference might you make about it? That man is a vagrant. That man needs help. What assumptions underlie your inference? Only bums lie in gutters. People are wholly responsible for their fate. He is getting what he deserves Note how the inference is based on both a simple assumption and larger social values or ideology. Critical thinking; How do you know that? What assumptions are you making What is the question? Foundations of Research 21 Assumptions often critically affect the inferences we make. Imagine a situation A man is lying in the gutter What Inference might you make about it? That man is a vagrant. That man needs help. What happens when you change your assumption? Anybody in the gutter is in need of help. People suffer from personal or social problems that they cannot control. No one deserves Note how the inference changes with a different social values or ideology Critical thinking; How do you know that? What assumptions are you making What is the question? Foundations of Research 22 As people we have built-in difficulties being objective We all have a confirmatory bias ; We are most sensitive to facts that support our assumptions ( hypotheses ). This self-serving bias can make us cherry pick only certain kinds of information. We are swayed by the emotional salience of information We are particularly sensitive to information, assumptions, or conclusions that make us feel better or in control of our world. Critical thinking science demands that we overcome these sources of bias. What empirical evidence is there? What assumptions are you making How do you know that? Critical thinking; How do you know that? Foundations of Research 23 What empirical evidence is there? What assumptions are you making How do you know that? Critical thinking demands honesty. We must be willing to go with the data; accept when our assumptions are contradicted by evidence. Ignoring the larger context and citing self-serving facts is invariably misleading. To think Critically we must strive to minimize our personal or ideological biases; Evidence must not depend upon who is collecting it. You can have your own opinions, but you cannot have your own facts. No, global warming is not a myth just because it was cold last winter Critical thinking; How do you know that? Foundations of Research 24 In a logically coherent explanation causes and effects are independent and potentially be falsifiable. In circular reasoning you assume a certain cause only by observing an effect; you do not assess them independently. All behavior is due to an external, learned stimulus. But how do we know when an important stimulus is present? We see behavior occurring, so there must be an important stimulus All adult neuroses are due to problems in childrearing. Wait, this patient reports a fine childhood, but is crazy as a loon. Clearly your patient is in denial about her problem childhood These causes explain the outcomes only if we already believe the theory! They do not actually test or support the theory. What empirical evidence is there? What assumptions are you making How do you know that? Does it make sense? Critical thinking; How do you know that? Foundations of Research 25 In a logically coherent explanation causes and effects are independent and potentially be falsifiable. In circular reasoning you assume a certain cause only by observing an effect; you do not assess them independently. In a No True Scotsman type fallacy an explanation cannot be found false; No true Scotsman puts sugar on his porridge. Wait, I am an Scotsman and I put sugar in my porridge! Well, clearly you are not a true Scotsman No one who truly understands Christianity could reject it. These statements cannot be proved false; any counter- information is dismissed as not real. You are either not a true Scotsman or do not understand Christianity Does it make sense? Critical thinking; How do you know that? Foundations of Research 26 These and many of the fallacies show the danger of taking statements even (ostensibly) empirical statements at face value. Clear thinking comes only from care and work! Does it make sense? Of course a core value underlying Science and critical thought generally is honesty. Despite structures to monitor the integrity of evidence, personal integrity on the part of researchers is still crucial. We will spend time on this when we get to Research Ethics. Diederik Stapel faked 20 years of data in the largest fraud in the social sciences. Click for New York Times review. Critical thinking; How do you know that? Image: Shutterstock Foundations of Research 27 What other explanation or interpretation may make more sense? What is the real question? What assumptions are you making What empirical evidence is there? Does it make sense? How do you know that? Critical thinking; How do you know that? Foundations of Research 28 Many of our explanations including scientific hypotheses may have equally plausible alternative explanations. This is particularly the case with correlational findings. During the recent recession economists found a strong correlation between the U.S. budget deficit and unemployment. Some politicians took this to mean that to lessen unemployment we must first lower the deficit, since deficits cause unemployment. What alternative explanation of the finding can you imagine? Perhaps unemployment and deficits are not causally related. Perhaps unemployment leads to deficits, rather than the other way around. Critical thinking As you can imagine, people with different political agendas seized on one or the other of these interpretations What other explanation or interpretation may make more sense? Marco Rubio Click to read a discussion in the Daily Kos. Click to read a discussion in the Daily Kos. Lower tax revenues; More unemployment compensation... Foundations of Research 29 Many of our explanations of things including scientific hypotheses may have equally plausible alternative explanations. It is always important to ask what else may be going on here? Critical thinking What other explanation or interpretation may make more sense? Take a critical thinking quiz here.here Foundations of Research 30 How do you know that: What assumptions are you making? What empirical evidence is there? Does it make sense? What other explanation or interpretation may make more sense? Critical thinking So, how do we think critically? What does that look like? Critical thinking is So, how do we think critically? What does that look like? Critical thinking is Foundations of Research 31 What is critical thinking? Active Seek (new & diverse) information rather than passively accepting an existing or traditional conclusion. Skeptical; Suspend belief until there is evidence Make judgments about whether something Is plausible & rational Is supported by evidence Be clear on the limitations of your and others knowledge Be prepared to change in the face of new evidence or theory Creative Develop and consider alternative explanations or interpretations Imagine different ways to evaluate or test a claim (Not simply doubting everything; click the image for a discussion.) Click for cool critical thinking site. Click for cool critical thinking site. Shutterstock Foundations of Research 32 Critical thinking is important every approach to knowledge Examples of critical thinking. Science Critically analyzing results of experiments in light of the quality of the data and existing theories. Math Selecting and evaluating strategies for modeling a problem. Humanities Putting literature and art into their historical context; critically analyzing the meaning of a work. Health fields Evaluating symptom patterns to make decisions in clinical settings. Criminal justice Weighting evidence to reach decisions about guilt and responsibility. Politics, debate Honestly analyzing others points of view, basing arguments on evidence and logic. Examples in this section adapted from: Foundations of Research 33 We engage in critical thinking all the time Examples of critical thinking. Adapted from:How concerned should I be about crime?Should I just stay home? Is this plane ticket really cheaper? How much should I believe this news story? Where did I hear it what biases do they have? Do celebrity dietary cleansings really help? What real evidence is there? Is she angry at me?or just in a bad mood?Did I do something wrong? How do I figure out of s/he is a good match for me? What are my real chances of winning the lottery? Which phone company plan is best? Images: Shutterstock.com Foundations of Research 34 We engage in critical thinking all the time in day-to-day life: Examples of critical thinking. How concerned should I be about crime? Is this plane ticket really cheaper? How much should I believe this news story? Do The Secret or diet cleansing really help? Is she angry at me? How do I figure out of s/he is a good match for me? What are my real chances of winning the lottery? Which phone company plan is best? We answer these questions by: Collecting & critically evaluating evidence Framing it in terms of what we already know about the world Forming a logical conclusion. This is critical thought in action! The more we hone our critical thinking skills..the better we are at navigating the world. We answer these questions by: Collecting & critically evaluating evidence Framing it in terms of what we already know about the world Forming a logical conclusion. This is critical thought in action! The more we hone our critical thinking skills..the better we are at navigating the world. the more we think about how we are thinking Foundations of Research 35 Critically evaluate two arguments: Click the image for a New York Times article on free speech and license plates. The case involves states allowing or disallowing certain vanity license plates: The Confederate flag vs. an abortion rights message. Should both be allowed? Neither? One but not the other? Take a position not necessarily the authors! and use your list of critical thought questions to defend it. Write a sentence or two for each thought question. Critical Thought and Free Speech How do you know that: What assumptions are you making? What empirical evidence is there? Does it make sense? What other explanation may make more sense? How do you know that: What assumptions are you making? What empirical evidence is there? Does it make sense? What other explanation may make more sense? Shutterstock Foundations of Research 36 How do the foundations of critical thought map on to scientific discovery? Here is one model of the scientific process: Phenomenon Theory Hypothesis Methods Critical thinking & Science What is it? How do I think it works? What do I predict, based on my theory? What evidence will test my hypothesis? Foundations of Research 37 One model of the scientific process: Phenomenon We begin by stating a general question; What do we not understand about some important part of the world? What needs further explanation? What gaps are there in our knowledge? What new idea or concept do I want to explore? Critical thinking & Science How or why are particular people attracted to each other? Foundations of Research 38 One model of the scientific process: Phenomenon Theory How can we best explain the phenomenon? What coherent or logical principles might underlie what we observe? What well understood physical, social or psychological processes can explain how or why this works? What principles can I adopt from a completely different field to better explain this phenomenon? Critical thinking & Science Attraction may be enhanced by cultural similarity. Attraction may be mediated by antigenic complementarity.* * Evolution has favored offspring of mates with complementary features of their immune systems, which are detectible in sweat. Foundations of Research 39 One model of the scientific process: Phenomenon Theory What concrete and specific prediction about the world flows from and tests our theory? If I manipulate certain conditions in an experiment, what measurable outcome do I expect? If I am observing nature say, in paleontology or archeology, or historical or literary research what patterns or relationships do I expect? Hypothesis Critical thinking & Science I predict that when I present research participants with: more / less attractive people who are more / less culturally similar Cultural similarity will be more important than attractiveness. Foundations of Research 40 One model of the scientific process: Phenomenon Theory What concrete and specific prediction about the world flows from and tests our theory? If I manipulate certain conditions in an experiment, what measurable outcome do I expect? If I am observing nature say, in paleontology or archeology, or historical or literary research what patterns or relationships do I expect? Hypothesis Critical thinking & Science I predict that when I present female research participants with t-shirts worn by men with more / less antigenic complementarity Complementarity will generally predict attraction. Foundations of Research 41 One model of the scientific process: Phenomenon Theory What empirical evidence will test the hypothesis? What must I measure or observe to determine whether or not the hypothesis is supported? How do I assure that the evidence is unbiased and objective? o Could anyone repeat my study and get the same results? o Are my observations well understood or standard in my field? Hypothesis Methods Critical thinking & Science How do I structure my lab experiment so that the conditions are plausible & realistic, but still controlled enough to clearly test my hypothesis How do I structure my lab experiment so that the conditions are plausible & realistic, but still controlled enough to clearly test my hypothesis 42 Psychology 242 Introduction to Research Phenomenon Theory Active ; Actively seek new or better explanations Skeptical ; Theories must be coherent and logical Hypotheses must be specific enough to be tested. Without valid empirical evidence all beliefs are tentative. New evidence can always overturn our theories or beliefs. Creative ; Every stage benefits from innovation. Hypothesis Methods / Data As critical thought, scientific process is: Critical thinking in science Values: Critical thought + Empiricism Values: Critical thought + Empiricism Foundations of Research 43 Summary; Introduction, part 1 In this module be have begun our exploration of the core elements of empirical or scientific thought SUMMARY We began by asking some critical thought questions; How do you know that? What assumptions are you making? What empirical evidence is there? Does it make sense? Are there alternate explanations? To address these questions critical thought must be Active ; We seek new or better explanations Skeptical ; Theories must be coherent and logical Hypotheses must be specific enough to be tested. New evidence can always overturn our theories. Creative ; Innovation helps develop and evaluate ideas. Phenomenon Theory Hypothesis Methods These values underlie the basic research process Go on to Part 2 after a break.