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LU Biofuels DayLund, Sweden, May 29, 2015

Fossil fuel free road transportation in Sweden

Thomas B Johansson

Professor em, Lund University

Commissioner, Fossil Fuel free road transport, SOU 2013:84

BackgroundGov’t Bill to Parliament 2008/09:162

• Presents the vision of a Sweden with a sustainable and resource efficient energy system without net emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere 2050. 

• States the long term priority that Sweden 2030 shold have a vehicle fleet that is independent of fossil fuels. This shouldbe seen as a stepping stone towards the 2050 vision.

• In July, 2012, a Commissioner was appointed to proposemeasures and actions to realize the priority 2030 as art of reaching the vision 2050

• 6 expert groups, secretariate of 5 FTE, intensive consultations,final Report in December 2013.

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The work of the Commission

• Håkan Johansson (secretary –general from 2013‐10‐08)

• Hillevi Hejenstedt, Kristina Holmgren, Olle Hådell, Lina Jonsson, Jonas Westin, Per Wollin (Secretariate) 

• 23 official experts

• 5 Expert groups with some 60 experts

• 30 reports commissioned.

The Commission’s home page: http://www.sou.gov.se/sb/d/17384/a/213336

Explore five areas of measures to see how far measures couldcontribute towards fossil fuel independence:

1. Stimulate continued societal transition towardsreduced and more efficient transport

2. Infrastructure investments and change of trafficmode

3. More energy efficient vehicles

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100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Koldioxidutsläpp (g/km) Tyskland

Finland

Sverige

Storbritannien

EU‐15

Norge

Spanien

Italien

Frankrike

Danmark

EU target for 2015

EU fuel efficiencyEU fuel efficiency

EU target for 2015

1. Stimulate continued societal transitiontowards reduced and more efficienttransport

2. Infrastructure investments and change of traffic mode

3. More energy efficient vehicles

4. Electrically powered road transport

5. Bio fuels

Explore five areas of measures to see how far measurescould contribute towards fossil fuel independence:

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Swedish potential* of increased biomass production (TWh / yr)

Short termLong

term(30-50 yr)

Tops and branches (GROT) from final felling 3-10 10-17

Stumps from final felling 19 27

GROT from thinning 7-8 11-12

Thin stem wood from early thinning 2 3

Pulp wood – excess (50% of current amount for newsprint paper production) 5-7 5-7

Stem wood – general long-term increase in productivity and standing volume (75)

GROT and stumps – Optimised and site-specific fertilisation on 5% forest land 4-5

Stem wood - Optimised and site-specific fertilisation on 5% forest land (22)

Mix of energy crops on current fallow arable land - 150 000 ha 4-5 4-5

Mix of energy crops on excess arable land not needed for feed production - 250 000 ha 7 7

Fast growing broad-leaf trees on abandoned agricultural land - 100 000 to 200 000 ha 2-6

Straw 4 4

Waste and residues for biogas 3-5 3-5

Total 54-67 80-96

(177-195)Börjesson, Lundgren, Ahlgren & Nyström (2013)

* (Including technical, ecological & economic limitations, excluding current biomass utilisation)

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From biomass to products

Source: J. Lundgren

Börjesson, Lundgren, Ahlgren & Nyström (2013)

Production chains for biofuels

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Kritiska utvecklingslinjer

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Fossil fuel use for road traffic, with and without measures

Traffic forms by mode of propulsion

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Biofuels

To increase the use:• Enhanced quota obligation

To support new technology and new raw materials:• Framework for the support of certain biofuels  (the price premium model)

Both proposals are well developed.

• National coordinator to facilitate the introduction of biofuels.

Obligated quotas

• The Commission proposed implementing the G’t proposal through 

2019,  possibly with increased levels of biofuels use 2017, 2018 and 

2019. 

• The G’t proposal was rejected by the EU Commission and the Ministries

are now working on a revised quota/taxation scheme

• The Commission proposed a more ambitios quota system be introduced

by 2020 that would include also pure biofuels and high blends based on 

reduction of  GHG emissions, or, alternatively, on energy units,  and 

allowing for trade.

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New technology using new raw material

• Biofuels from waste products, by‐products, cellulose, lignin and hemi‐

cellulosa 

• Challenges: technical, political, oil market, product market, finance, raw 

materials ….

• EU Directives: energy taxation, fuel quality, state aid, renewable

energies ….

the price premium model

• Aims at reducing political risks and oil market risks for producersand to reduce high initial costs

• Framework that guarantees a price premium on the production of biofuels for the first 12 years of the facilities’ production

• The price premium is the difference between a predeterminedstandard price and the price of diesel fuel in N Europe, incl the carbon tax in Sweden

• The standard price will be phased out by 2025

• The price premium is paid for by the fuel distributors i proportion to their sales

• Implies a somewhat enhanced fuel price during the period the model is in use

• The income of the producer will be the market value of the product + the price premium.

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The Climate Council

• In order to coordinate and engage all important parties, a national council for reduced impact on climate from road traffic is proposed.

• Relevant national authorities, local and regional authorities, the national coordinators for biofuels and electrification, relevant business organizations, academies and research institutions. 

• Proposal is inspired by the impact on road safety from  the Road Safety Council created in the mid‐1990’s.

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Systematically exploited synergies

• Significant parts of Swedish industry have world class competencies and can both contribute to and benefit from a targeted climate mitigation effort

• Providing opportunities for Swedish process industry to develop advanced biofuels can increase the offering of fossil free fuels

• Swedish vehicle industry has solutions for improved energy efficiency, engines for biofuels, and electrification. Important to continue to support that development.

The larger picture: multiple benefits

• More secure energy supply 

• More job opportunities

• Improved accessibility in cities

• Reduced emissions of air pollutants and noise

• Increased physical activity and health

• Increased basis for public transport

• Reduced land requirements for transport 

• Improved social integration and equality

• Improved road safety

• Reduced costs lover time

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Thank you!

Eller googla: Fossilfrihet på väghttp://www.regeringen.se/sb/d/17075/a/230739

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