FORWARD-LOOKING AND - KP Tissue · PDF fileFORWARD-LOOKING AND ... Readers are cautioned that...
Transcript of FORWARD-LOOKING AND - KP Tissue · PDF fileFORWARD-LOOKING AND ... Readers are cautioned that...
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FORWARD-LOOKING AND
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS
This Presentation on behalf of KP Tissue Inc. (the “Corporation” or “KPT”) does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or solicitation of any offer to buy orsubscribe for any securities nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with, or act as any inducement to enter into, any contract orcommitment whatsoever.
The information contained in this Presentation does not purport to be all-inclusive. This Presentation is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not bereproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part by any other person. Neither this Presentation nor any copy of it may be taken or transmitted into ordistributed any other jurisdiction which prohibits the same except in compliance with applicable securities laws. Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute aviolation of securities law.
No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company or any of the directors, officers or employees of any such entities as tothe accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this Presentation and no responsibility or liability is accepted by any person for suchinformation or opinions. In furnishing this Presentation, the Company does not undertake or agree to any obligation to provide the attendees with access to any additionalinformation or to update this Presentation or to correct any inaccuracies in, or omissions from, this Presentation that may become apparent. The information and opinionscontained in this Presentation are provided as at the date of this Presentation. The contents of this Presentation are not to be construed as legal, financial or tax advice.Each person receiving this Presentation should contact his, her or its own legal adviser, independent financial adviser or tax adviser for legal, financial or tax advice.
Certain statements in this presentation about the Corporation and Kruger Products L.P. (“KPLP”) as it relates to their current and future plans, expectations and intentions,results, levels of activity, performance, goals or achievements or any other future events or developments constitute forward-looking statements. The words “may”, “will”,“would”, “should”, “could”, “expects”, “plans”, “intends”, “trends”, “indications”, “anticipates”, “believes”, “estimates”, “predicts”, “likely” or “potential” or the negative orother variations of these words or other comparable words or phrases, are intended to identify forward-looking statements. The forward-looking information is based oncertain key expectations and assumptions made by the Corporation or KPLP, including the continued growth of the U.S. private label market and the continued growth insales of TAD products in the U.S., orders for the TAD machine’s products, the amount and timing of distributions made by KPLP, and Kruger Inc.’s (“Kruger”) cashrequirements. The financial outlook that KPLP Management provides concerning the potential incremental Adjusted EBITDA generated by TAD products may be consideredforward-looking information and is based on additional key expectations and assumptions, including but not limited to (i) limited incremental overhead relating to theoperation of the TAD machine and distribution and sale of products, (ii) the TAD machine operating at near full capacity, (iii) a cost of pulp and energy and a selling price offinished products based on recent prices, adjusted for inflation and (iv) a foreign exchange rate between the Canadian and U.S. dollars approximating current levels. Thepurpose of the outlook is to provide the reader with an indication of management’s expectations, at the date of this presentation, regarding KPLP’s future financialperformance. Readers are cautioned that this information may not be appropriate for other purposes. Although the Corporation and KPLP believe that the expectations andassumptions on which such forward-looking information is based are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on the forward-looking information since noassurance can be given that such expectations and assumptions will prove to be correct.
Unless otherwise stated, references in this presentation to market shares or KPT’s market leadership are based on Nielsen dollar market share data and managementestimates.
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Growing US platform with significant potential upside from private
label/TAD Products
Strong customer relationships - #1 in CPG survey for 4 consecutive years
Away-From-Home (AFH) – Extend and leverage AFH N.A. platform
Solid track record of EBITDA growth – YTD up 14%
Leading Canadian tissue brands with #1 overall market share
Strong free cash flow with attractive dividend yield
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INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
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CORPORATE STRUCTURE
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Scott Paper Limited
Commences Operations
Kruger acquires 100% of Scott Paper Limited
from KC for $450 million
Acquisition of
Memphis Plant
Successfully completes
transition of KC brands
KP Tissue IPO
Commercial launch
TAD Project
1923 1997 2002 2007 2012 2013
Acquisition of
Metro Paper
2014
CORPORATE TIMELINE
5
Focus on high-return
CAPEX including Crabtree
expansion
2016
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C O N S U M E R AWAY - F R O M - H O M E
Not included in the revenue above is the “Other” segment which had revenue of $19.3 million in FY2014 6
BUSINESS SEGMENTS
LTM Revenue - $950 million
(1) Included is the “Other” segment which had LTM revenue of $17 million
Consolidated LTM Revenue - $1.2 billion (1)
LT M R e v e n u e $ 9 5 0 m i l l i o n LT M R e v e n u e $ 2 2 2 m i l l i o n
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Canada61%
U.S.35%
Mexico4%
Canada U.S. Mexico
$37 million+49.2% yr/yr
$537 million+1.8% yr/yr
$314 million+9.8% yr/yr
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GEOGRAPHIC REVENUES – YTD FY2016
($C millions)
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Reaching over 80% of the North American population KPLP represents one-third of total Canadian capacity
New Westminster, BC
Memphis, TN
Crabtree, QC
Sherbrooke, QCGatineau, QC
Mississauga, ON Scarborough, ON
Trenton, ON
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MANUFACTURING AND DISTRIBUTION
Optimal shipping rangeapproximately 500 miles
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CANADA’S LEADING TISSUE COMPANY
• Leading brands: Scotties, Cashmere,
Purex, SpongeTowels
• In 2016, once again, Cashmere was the
best-selling bathroom tissue in Canada.
In Western Canada, Purex
was again the top brand
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Source: Nielsen; dollar market share for the 52-week period ended September 17, 2016.
Bathroom Tissue Facial Tissue Paper Towel
#136.8%
#131.5%
#223.8%
21.1%
10.2%
4.4%
20.3%
1.0%
18.2%
9.8%
32.3%
2.6%
CANADA’S LEADING TISSUE COMPANY
CONSUMER MARKET SHARE
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of all branded tissue product sales in
Canada(1)
of all branded tissue product sales at the 5 largest Canadian
Grocers(1)
(1) ACNielsen data – October 15, 2016, on a dollar basis. 11
STRONG CUSTOMER/RETAILER
RELATIONSHIPS
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Out of over 20 of the Largest CPG Companies in Canada(1)
Vendor in 2010
1
Vendor in 2011 and 2012
Vendor in 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016
1
2
(1) Third-party survey evaluating, amongst other things, quality of personnel and services 12
STRONG CUSTOMER/RETAILER
RELATIONSHIPS
(1) Third-party annual survey of Canadian retailers, evaluating amongst other things, quality of personnel and services
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SO
FT
NE
SS
B U L K
A significant portion of KPLP’s consumer tissue is manufactured using SRC technology
• Recycled fibre, better quality
• Lower production costs
TAD – Through-Air-Dried
• Softer, bulkier, premium products
• Cost advantage
TADProcess
LDC
WC
Note: WC, LDC, SRC and TAD are the acronyms for wet crepe, light dry crepe, single recrepe and through-air-dried, respectively.
SRC
Objective: Optimum Softness while Maximizing Bulk to reduce unit cost
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TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANTAGE
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AWAY-FROM-HOME (AFH)
• Canadian market share leader with approximately 30%
• 19% of Total Company LTM revenue
• AFH covers multiple market channels:
– Foodservice, property management, lodging, health care, public facilities, education and manufacturing
• Our business is split approximately 2/3’s in Canada and 1/3 in the U.S.
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AWAY-FROM-HOME (AFH)
MARKET SHARE IN CANADA
15
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Source: Industry data and management estimates 2016, based on total Canadian market
KPLP is the Canadian market leader in the AFH segment.
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PULP INPUT PRICES
• Pulp prices (NBSK) rose sequentially in 2016 in both USD and CAD and also year-over-year in CAD. Eucalyptus prices (BEK, not shown here) were lower however
• Based on industry information, management expects pulp prices in USD to remain relatively stable in the near term. The continuing weak and volatile CAD will further create fluctuations in pulp input costs during 2016.
Source: Management estimate using 3 industry sources
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
Dec-
12
Mar
-13
Jun-
13
Sep-
13
Dec-
13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14
Sep-
14
Dec-
14
Mar
-15
Jun-
15
Sep-
15
Dec-
15
Mar
-16
Jun-
16
Sep-
16
NBSK North American List Prices per MT
USD
CAD
(USD average 1.30 in Q3 2016
compared to 1.30 in Q3 2015)
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KEY BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS
& STRATEGY
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BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS
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Maintained positive Adjusted EBITDA trend for our 4th year as a public company – LTM run rate improvement to $140 million vs. $126 million in FY2015
Offset pulp increase/Cdn. dollar weakness by leading a price increase in Consumer Canada / AFH
Implementing a $5 million cost reduction program
Maintained #1 market share in Bathroom Tissue and Facial Tissue and #2 in Paper Towels
Continued to ramp-up TAD Project - on target
Launched two new branded TAD products: Cashmere UltraLuxe Bathroom Tissue and SpongeTowels UltraStrong, well received by retailers and consumers
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BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS
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White Cloud rated #1 best all-around U.S. bathroom tissue brand*
Implementing action plan to improve AFH profitability
Capital Program 2016/2017 of $145-160 million:
low risk/high return
government financing at low interest rates
additional capacity to support Canadian Consumer, AFH and U.S. Private Label growth
* Based on a ranking of 21 toilet paper products in the U.S. by a leading consumer publication October 2015
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923955
1,046
1,139 1,189
2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM09/16
Revenue
111 116
122 126
140
2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM09/16
Adjusted EBITDA (1)
67.8
82.2 81.6 78.4
90.9
2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM09/16
Operating Income
12.0% 12.2%
11.6%11.1%
11.8%
2012 2013 2014 2015 LTM09/16
Adjusted EBITDA Margin
20
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE TREND
(1) Non-GAAP measure – see MD&A for the definition and reconciliation of the most comparable GAAP measure
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Maintain brand leadership and grow profitability in Canada
Drive Growth in U.S. Consumer Premium Private Label
Improve profitability and focus on U.S. growth in AFH
Continue to focus on Operational Excellenceincluding high return CAPEX projects
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STRATEGIC INITIATIVES
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32.9%
35.2%
37.1%
34.8% 35.0%34.7%
35.0%
36.2%
36.8%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Nielsen Canadian dollar market share for 52-week period data.
22.2% 22.3%
23.3%
21.9%
23.7%24.3%
24.9% 24.7%
23.8%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Ended September 17, 2016
25.4% 25.6%
29.1%
30.2%
31.9%
33.2%
31.4%
32.7%31.5%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
#1 Bathroom Tissue #1 Facial Tissue #2 Paper Towel
Ended September 17, 2016Ended September 17, 2016
BRAND LEADERSHIP POSITION IN CANADA
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Improve Adjusted EBITDA and maintain leading market share
Increase manufacturing performance and operating efficiencies
Implement additional cost reduction initiatives including Supply Chain / Logistics initiatives for freight and warehousing
CONSUMER CANADA BUSINESS
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CAPEX projects focused on capacity growth and cost reduction/automation for Bathroom tissue and Facial tissue in East and West mill sites
Advertising investment to maintain brand equity
Canadian Consumer business initiatives include:
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NET CAPACITY CHANGE
& CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Annual Population
Growth of 1.5%(1) =
+ 130,000 tonnes/year
or 2.5 machines
• Total N.A. capacity at the end of 2015 was 8.8 million metric tonnes• Industry Demand and capacity are relatively well balanced• Capacity utilization rates staying stable in the 92-96% range over the long term.• 2016-2020 capacity additions represent approximately 120,000 tonnes/year on average which
is in line with the demand growth forecast of 1.5%24
* Based on committed projects only
Net Capacity Change* and Capacity Utilization in the North American Tissue
Industry, 2002-2020
80
85
90
95
100
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Pe
rce
nt
Th
ou
san
d T
on
ne
s
Capacity Change (L)
Capacity Utilization (R)
(1) Source: RISI, tissue demand average for 2011-2015
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PRIVATE LABEL – MARKET SHARE
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
USA Canada
PRIVATE LABEL MARKET SHARE
25
Management forecast is for U.S. Private Label share to grow to 30% by 2020
Source: RISI
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TAD PRODUCT FINANCIALS
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(3.6)
1.1
3.5
7.8
6.5
9.1 9.7
11.2 11.2
13.2
10.5
12.0 12.7
(4.0)
(2.0)
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
FY2012 FY 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016
ADJUSTED EBITDA from TAD products(In millions of Cdn. dollars)
• YTD 2016 Adjusted EBITDA from TAD products of $35.2 million, up from $32.1 million in YTD 2015
• Adjusted EBITDA from TAD products for Q4 2016 expected to be higher than Q4 2015, primarily due to sales ramp-up from new customers
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TAD PROJECT
• Our outlook for Fiscal 2017 Adjusted EBITDA remains at $60 million for TAD products
• Capacity filled for FY2017 with three new private label customers – machine now fully booked
• Quality at highest level National Brand Equivalent
• Production on target learning curve, increased machine speed for 2017
• Developing one of the best paper towels on the N.A. market
• Next TAD machine currently under study
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AWAY-FROM-HOME (AFH)
• Completed Metro Paper acquisition in 2014
adding approximately $50 million of revenue
• Consolidation of converting operations in
Trenton / Scarborough with new CAPEX
• Significant CAPEX commitment in 2015-2017
of over $25 million. Payback period of 4 years with benefits starting in FY2017.
Projects include Bathroom Tissue, Towel and Facial finished product converting
• Centralizing distribution centre in new Oshawa facility in Q3-Q4 2016
• Lincoln paper machine installation in Crabtree, Quebec (PM#8) primarily dedicated
to AFH, with CAPEX of $55 million. Uses 100% recycled paper. Construction started
in August and expected benefits starting in Fiscal 2018
• Long-term strategic priority: Build North American footprint and market coverage
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Total Company year-to-date CAPEX of $58.7 million, up from $35.1million last year, 2016 estimated at approximately $80-$90 million
Focus is on high return CAPEX involving Cost reduction and Capacity /Growth projects generally having 3 to 4 year paybacks
2017 CAPEX plan is for $65-70 million in spending includingapproximately $35 million for the Lincoln paper machine installation inthe Crabtree site
HIGH RETURN CAPEX PROJECTS
CAPEX COMPONENTS Fiscal 2016 %
Capacity/Growth 48%
Cost reductions 27%
Maintenance 25%
Total 100%
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LOOKING AHEAD
• Maintain market share leadership in
Canadian consumer segment
• Continue to mitigate impact of high
commodity prices and weak Canadian dollar
• Continue to leverage our TAD product
manufacturing capacity to take advantage of
growth opportunities in the U.S. premium
private label market
• Continue to analyze opportunities for TAD 2
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LOOKING AHEAD
• Benefits from Metro Paper acquisition and
CAPEX ramp-up in AFH will start in FY2017
• New paper machine in Crabtree. Expected
benefits starting in Fiscal 2018
• Focus on high-return CAPEX projects aimed at
improving profitability and manufacturing
efficiencies
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SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
APPENDIX
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QUARTERLY FINANCIAL SUMMARY
(C$ millions, unless otherwise noted) Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2015 Y/Y Q/Q
Revenue 312.8 295.8 293.6 6.5% 5.7%
Cost of Sales 256.8 249.9 248.0
Gross Profit 56.0 45.9 45.6 22.8% 22.0%
Gross Margin 17.9% 15.5% 15.5%
Adjusted EBITDA 45.7 35.9 34.8 31.3% 27.3%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin 14.6% 12.1% 11.9%
Operating Income (EBIT) 33.7 23.5 24.3
EBIT Margin 10.8% 7.9% 8.3%
Net Income (Loss) 21.6 12.0 (5.9)
Net Income Margin 6.9% 4.1% -2.0%
% Change
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(C$ millions, unless otherwise noted) Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2015 Y/Y Q/Q
Segmented Revenue
Consumer 248.8 232.4 230.2 8.1% 7.1%
AFH 59.4 59.1 59.5 (0.2)% 0.5%
Other 4.6 4.3 3.9
Total segment revenue 312.8 295.8 293.6 6.5% 5.7%
Segment Adjusted EBITDA
Consumer 43.9 34.1 32.3 35.8% 28.7%
AFH 1.5 1.4 1.8 (14.9)% 7.1%
Other 0.3 0.4 0.7
Total segment Adjusted EBITDA 45.7 35.9 34.8 31.2% 27.3%
Segment Adjusted EBITDA Margin
Consumer 17.6% 14.7% 14.0%
AFH 2.5% 2.4% 3.0%
Other
Total segment Adjusted EBITDA Margin 14.6% 12.1% 11.9%
% Change
QUARTERLY SEGMENTED RESULTS
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QUARTERLY SEGMENTED RESULTS
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(C$ millions, unless otherwise noted)
Q3 2016 Q2 2016
Cash & cash equivalents 19.5 10.1
Current portion of long-term debt 9.0 9.1
Long-term debt 415.7 408.4
Net Debt 405.1 407.5
LTM EBITDA 139.9 129.0
Net Debt/LTM EBITDA 2.9 3.2
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BALANCE SHEET
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CSR: PROGRAMS VERSUS OBJECTIVES
Component Objective Actual
Energy -15% - 5%
Emissions -15% -16%
Water -15% -18%
Packaging - 5% -13%
Logistics +15% +10%
Certified Fibre 100% 100%
FSC® Chain of Custody Yes Yes
Certified Products 100+ 144http://www.sustainability2015.ca/
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