Forum On RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS “Toward a Safer America: Building...

Forum On

RISK MANAGEMENT

AND

ASSESSMENTS OF

NATURAL HAZARDS

“Toward a Safer America: Building Natural Hazard Resistant Communities

Through Risk Management and Assessments”

February 5 - 6, 2001

WELCOME!WELCOME!

RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS

OF NATURAL HAZARDS

Hotel Washington

Washington DC

Co-sponsored byThe Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services

and Supporting Research (OFCM)and

Committee on Environment and Natural Resource (CENR), Subcommittee onNatural Disaster Reduction (SNDR)

• TYPES OF HAZARDS

• IMPACTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS

• DEFINITIONS

• STATUTE / GUIDANCE COMPLIANCE

• OBJECTIVES

• OFCM PRIMER

• TYPES OF HAZARDS

• IMPACTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS

• DEFINITIONS

• STATUTE / GUIDANCE COMPLIANCE

• OBJECTIVES

• OFCM PRIMER

OVERVIEWOVERVIEW

Forum On Risk Management and Assessments of Natural HazardsForum On Risk Management and Assessments of Natural Hazards

TYPES OF HAZARDSTYPES OF HAZARDS

Natural HazardsNatural Hazards

Tropical CyclonesTropical Cyclones Thunderstorms and LightningThunderstorms and Lightning TornadoesTornadoes

HailstormsHailstormsWindstormsWindstorms Severe WinterstormsSevere Winterstorms


DroughtsDroughts

FloodsFloodsLandslides, Land Subsidence, and

Expansive SoilsLandslides, Land Subsidence, and

Expansive Soils

Snow AvalanchesSnow Avalanches


Coastal ErosionCoastal Erosion


WildfiresWildfires VolcanoesVolcanoes

Earthquakes and Tsunami EventsEarthquakes and Tsunami Events


• Sun continuously emits electromagnetic radiation and electrically charged particles

• Solar activity (solar flares, etc.) can greatly enhance emitted energy

– Interact with Earth’s magnetic field and near-earth atmosphere to create an adverse environment

• Sun continuously emits electromagnetic radiation and electrically charged particles

• Solar activity (solar flares, etc.) can greatly enhance emitted energy

– Interact with Earth’s magnetic field and near-earth atmosphere to create an adverse environment

Electromagnetic

Radiation

Electromagnetic

Radiation

EARTHEARTHElectrically Charged

Particles

Electrically Charged

Particles

Natural Hazards - Space Environmental Disturbaces

Natural Hazards - Space Environmental Disturbaces


Technological HazardsTechnological Hazards


Dam FailuresDam Failures Nuclear AccidentsNuclear Accidents

FiresFires Hazardous Material EventsHazardous Material Events

IMPACTS OF NATURAL HAZARDSIMPACTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS

• From 1993-1996, U.S. spent approx. one quarter of a billion dollars PER WEEK on meteorological natural disasters

• Earthquakes and hurricanes were the primary causes of monetary losses

• From 1975-1994, over 6,000 people killed and 50,000 injured

• From 1993-1996, U.S. spent approx. one quarter of a billion dollars PER WEEK on meteorological natural disasters

• Earthquakes and hurricanes were the primary causes of monetary losses

• From 1975-1994, over 6,000 people killed and 50,000 injured

Report on Costs and Benefits of Natural Hazard Mitigation, FEMA, April 1997 Report on Costs and Benefits of Natural Hazard Mitigation, FEMA, April 1997Extracted from The Impacts of Natural Disasters, National Research Council, 1999 andExtracted from The Impacts of Natural Disasters, National Research Council, 1999 and

19

30

3944

0

10

20

30

40

50

Midwest Floods (1993)

Hurricane Andrew (1992)

Drought (1988)

Northridge Earthquake(1994)


Extracted from The Impacts of Natural Disasters, National Research Council, 1999Extracted from The Impacts of Natural Disasters, National Research Council, 1999

Bill

ion

s o

f D

olla

rs

Most Expensive Natural Disasters in U.S.Most Expensive Natural Disasters in U.S.

• HAZARD: An event or physical condition that has the potential to cause fatalities, injuries, property damage, infrastructure damage, agricultural loss, damage to the environment, interruption of business and other types of harm

or loss. • NATURAL HAZARD: A hazard that evolves from

atmospheric or weather, geologic, hydrologic, and seismic events.

• HAZARD: An event or physical condition that has the potential to cause fatalities, injuries, property damage, infrastructure damage, agricultural loss, damage to the environment, interruption of business and other types of harm

or loss. • NATURAL HAZARD: A hazard that evolves from

atmospheric or weather, geologic, hydrologic, and seismic events.

DEFINITIONSDEFINITIONS

• RISK: The potential losses associated with a hazard, defined in terms of expected probability and frequency, exposure, and consequences.

• RISK ASSESSMENT: A process or method for evaluating risk associated with a specific hazard and defined in terms of probability and frequency of occurrence, magnitude and severity, exposure, and consequences.

• RISK: The potential losses associated with a hazard, defined in terms of expected probability and frequency, exposure, and consequences.

• RISK ASSESSMENT: A process or method for evaluating risk associated with a specific hazard and defined in terms of probability and frequency of occurrence, magnitude and severity, exposure, and consequences.


• RISK MANAGEMENT: Process of deciding what should be done about a hazard; deciding which hazards at what scale (intensity, occurrence interval) should be managed and in what priority.

• RISK MITIGATION: Sustained action taken to reduce or

eliminate long-term adverse impacts from hazards.

• RISK MANAGEMENT: Process of deciding what should be done about a hazard; deciding which hazards at what scale (intensity, occurrence interval) should be managed and in what priority.

• RISK MITIGATION: Sustained action taken to reduce or

eliminate long-term adverse impacts from hazards.


• Many risk assessment actions consistent with statutory compliance and relevant agency guidance

Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), EPA

Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), EPA Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA), EPA Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act (FAIR), USDA Federal Crop Insurance Reform and Depart. Of Agriculture

Reorganization Act (FCIR / DARA) USDA Plant Protection Act (PPA), USDA Endangered Species Act (ESA), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), USFS, BLM DoD Instruction 4715.3, Environmental Conservation Program, DoD

• Many risk assessment actions consistent with statutory compliance and relevant agency guidance

Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), EPA

Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), EPA Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA), EPA Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act (FAIR), USDA Federal Crop Insurance Reform and Depart. Of Agriculture

Reorganization Act (FCIR / DARA) USDA Plant Protection Act (PPA), USDA Endangered Species Act (ESA), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), USFS, BLM DoD Instruction 4715.3, Environmental Conservation Program, DoD

Risk Assessments -- Not Related to Natural HazardsRisk Assessments -- Not Related to Natural Hazards

Primary Agencies Involved Highlighted in Blue

STATUTE / GUIDANCE COMPLIANCESTATUTE / GUIDANCE COMPLIANCE

• Risk assessment / mitigation actions consistent with statutory compliance and relevant agency guidance

Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 Directed Federal govt to establish earthquake hazard reduction program Executive Order 12699 implemented certain provisions of the Act

Federal agencies responsible for design and construction of new buildings must develop seismic safety program

Water Resources Development Act (Public Law 104-303) Modified flood control program of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Placed additional emphasis on nonstructural options (watershed mgmt, wetlands restoration)

National Drought Policy Act of 1998 (Public Law 105-199) Established National Drought Policy Commission

Created policy / procedures to prepare and respond to serious drought emergencies


Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 Directed Federal govt to establish earthquake hazard reduction program Executive Order 12699 implemented certain provisions of the Act

Federal agencies responsible for design and construction of new buildings must develop seismic safety program

Water Resources Development Act (Public Law 104-303) Modified flood control program of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Placed additional emphasis on nonstructural options (watershed mgmt, wetlands restoration)

National Drought Policy Act of 1998 (Public Law 105-199) Established National Drought Policy Commission

Created policy / procedures to prepare and respond to serious drought emergencies


Risk Assessment / Mitigation -- Related to Natural HazardsRisk Assessment / Mitigation -- Related to Natural Hazards


Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972 (as amended through Public Law 104-150, The Coastal Zone protection Act of 1996) (15 CFR 923.25) Coastal State management program must include:

A planning process for assessing the effects of, and studying and evaluating ways to control, or lessen the impact of, shoreline erosion

The Department of the Interior and Related Agencies Appropriations Act 2001, Public Law 106-291 Provided nearly $2 billion to DOI for wildfire risk reduction and

rehabilitation Executive Order 13151 (May 2, 2000)

Established Global Disaster Information Network To make more effective use of information technology to prepare for and

respond to disasters


Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972 (as amended through Public Law 104-150, The Coastal Zone protection Act of 1996) (15 CFR 923.25) Coastal State management program must include:

A planning process for assessing the effects of, and studying and evaluating ways to control, or lessen the impact of, shoreline erosion

The Department of the Interior and Related Agencies Appropriations Act 2001, Public Law 106-291 Provided nearly $2 billion to DOI for wildfire risk reduction and

rehabilitation Executive Order 13151 (May 2, 2000)

Established Global Disaster Information Network To make more effective use of information technology to prepare for and

respond to disasters

Risk Assessment / Mitigation -- Related to Natural HazardsRisk Assessment / Mitigation -- Related to Natural Hazards


• Examine risk assessment processes / approaches that evolved from legislation or agency guidance

• Review risk assessment research and its applications to manage / reduce natural hazards

– Identify / characterize areas of vulnerability and exposure, probability of occurrence, consequences, and mitigation opportunities

– Highlight efforts in developing national standards and capabilities for data monitoring, data collection, and model development

– Examine methods to quantify and publicize the social and economic impacts of natural hazards

• Examine risk assessment processes / approaches that evolved from legislation or agency guidance

• Review risk assessment research and its applications to manage / reduce natural hazards

– Identify / characterize areas of vulnerability and exposure, probability of occurrence, consequences, and mitigation opportunities

– Highlight efforts in developing national standards and capabilities for data monitoring, data collection, and model development

– Examine methods to quantify and publicize the social and economic impacts of natural hazards

Overarching objectives are to:

FORUM OBJECTIVESFORUM OBJECTIVES

• Develop a consensus leading to coordinated risk assessment and management of natural hazards through:

– Legislative proposals

– Policy guidance

– Agency cooperation

• Develop a consensus leading to coordinated risk assessment and management of natural hazards through:

– Legislative proposals

– Policy guidance

– Agency cooperation

Overarching objectives are to:

FORUM OBJECTIVESFORUM OBJECTIVES

To ensure the effective use of federal meteorological

resources by leading the systematic coordination of

operational weather requirements and services, and supporting research, among the

federal agencies.

OFCM PRIMEROFCM PRIMER

Who is OFCM?Who is OFCM?

Mission

Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (FCMSSR)

Interdepartmental Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (ICMSSR)

Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

Standing Committees

Program Councils

National Space Weather Program

National Aviation Weather Program

Environmental Services, Operations, and Research

Needs

Operational Processing Centers

Environmental Information Systems and Communications

Integrated Observing Systems

Climate Monitoring and Services

Cooperative Research

Coordinating InfrastructureCoordinating Infrastructure


US Weather Research Program (USWRP)

US Global Change Research Program

(USGCRP)

National Science and Technology Council (NSTC)

Committee on the Environment and Natural Resources (CENR)

Subcommittee on Natural Disaster Reduction (SNDR)

National Research Council (NRC)Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC)Climate Research Committee (CRC)

National Center for Atmospheric Research

(NCAR)

University Corp. for Atmospheric Research

(UCAR)

American Meteorological Society (AMS)


OFCM Membership / AffiliationsOFCM Membership / Affiliations

Margaret LawlessChairperson of the Subcommittee for Natural Disaster

Reduction (SNDR)and

Acting Executive Associate Director for Mitigation, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)

RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS

“Toward a Safer America: Building Natural Hazard Resistant Communities Through Risk Management and

Assessments”

BACKUPSBACKUPS

Solar EffectsSolar Effects• Electrical Power Grid Disruptions / Failures

• GPS Positioning Errors (Single Freq.)

• GPS Loss of Signal Lock (Dual Freq.)

• HF / UHF Blackout / Interference

• Over-the-Horizon Radar Interference

• Satellite Operations

• Loss of Satellite

• Damage Solar Panels / Electronics

• Orbit Decay

• Noise in Image Data

• Radiation Hazards

• To Astronaunts (Extra-Vehicular Activity)

• To Passengers / Crews in Supersonic Aircraft at High Altitudes Over the Polar Cap

Electromagnetic

Radiation

High Energy

Charged Particles

Electrically Charged Particle Clouds

Solar ActivitySolar Activity

Space Environmental DisturbacesSpace Environmental Disturbaces


July 14-16, 2000 (Bastille Day Storm) July 14-16, 2000 (Bastille Day Storm)

• Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft– Permanent solar panel degradation

• Equivalent to 1 year of normal degradation

• Japanese research satellite– Went into “safe mode” and lost altitude– Unable to orient towards sun for recharge of

batteries– Unable to regain control of spacecraft– Expected to reenter earth’s atmosphere next year

• Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft– Permanent solar panel degradation

• Equivalent to 1 year of normal degradation

• Japanese research satellite– Went into “safe mode” and lost altitude– Unable to orient towards sun for recharge of

batteries– Unable to regain control of spacecraft– Expected to reenter earth’s atmosphere next year

Space Environmental DisturbacesSpace Environmental Disturbaces


Transformer Damage

TrippingVoltage Variations

Electric Power Systems

July 14-16, 2000 (Bastille Day Storm) July 14-16, 2000 (Bastille Day Storm) Space Environmental DisturbacesSpace Environmental Disturbaces


GPS Errors July 15-16, 2000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

One month averageMay-June 2000

Two days prior tostorm

Storm days

Average Horizontal Error (Meters) (95%)

Garmin 12CX ReceiverLocated at N47 W92

(Single Freq.)

July 14-16, 2000 (Bastille Day Storm) July 14-16, 2000 (Bastille Day Storm) Space Environmental DisturbacesSpace Environmental Disturbaces


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