Forests in a changing climate - impacts, adaptation, and ... 2/6-3...Forests in a Changing Climate -...
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Forests in a Changing Climate - Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Andreas Fischlin Coordinating Lead Author Chapter «Ecosystems», WG II, Fourth Assessment Report Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Systems Ecology, Institute of Integrative Biology (IBZ), Environmental Sciences
Transcript of Forests in a changing climate - impacts, adaptation, and ... 2/6-3...Forests in a Changing Climate -...
Forests in a ChangingClimate - Impacts,
Adaptation, and Vulnerability
Andreas FischlinCoordinating Lead Author
Chapter «Ecosystems», WG II, Fourth Assessment ReportIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Systems Ecology, Institute ofIntegrative Biology (IBZ),Environmental Sciences
Contents
1.C
urren
t climatic tren
ds
2.F
utu
re climate ch
ang
e
3.Im
pacts o
n fo
rests
4.A
dap
tation
and
forests
5.V
uln
erabilities
1 Cu
rrent
Clim
ate Ch
ang
eT
rend
s
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
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Perio
d °/10a
Ob
served T
emp
eratures
150 0.045±0.012
100 0.074±0.018
50 0.128±0.026
25 0.177±0.052
11 out of 1
2 y
ears (1
995-
2006) a
re w
arm
est e
ver
measure
d!
Ranking 1
2 w
arm
est:
1998,2
005,2
003,2
002,2
004,2
006,
2001,1
997,1
995,1
999,1
990,2
000
After F
igure TS
.6 (IPC
C, 2007.
Technical S
umm
ary WG
I)
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Sm
oothed anomalies (%
) over continents
Decre
ase
Incre
ase
Ch
ang
es in P
recipitatio
n (1900-2005)
After F
igure 3.14 (Trenberth et al., 2007. IP
CC
WG
I)
2 Fu
ture
Clim
ate Ch
ang
e
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
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Scen
ario d
ifferences b
ecom
e mo
rep
ron
ou
nced
as we ad
vance in
time
Figure T
S.28: P
rojected surface temperature changes (IP
CC
, 2007. Technical S
umm
ary WG
I)
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
•R
ain increases at high latitudes (very likely);
•R
ain decreases at low latitudes (likely);
Fu
ture: C
han
ges in
Precip
itation
Figure S
PM
.7: Relative changes in precipitation 2090-2099 vs. 1980-1999 (IP
CC
, 2007. Sum
mary for P
olicy Makers W
GI)
3 Imp
acts on
Fo
rests
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
•2 C
LAs: A
ndreas Fischlin, G
uy F. M
idgley•
8 LAs: Jeff P
rice, Rik Leem
ans, Brij G
opal,C
arol Turley, M
ark Rounsevell, P
aulineD
ube, Juan Tarazona, A
ndrei Velichko
•19 C
As w
ith outstanding contributions fromJacqueline de C
hazal and Rachel W
arren•
2 RE
s•
Hundred of expert review
ers, scientists etc.•
>3200 scienti�c articles review
ed•
915 cited
IPC
C A
ssessmen
t Rep
ort 4 W
GII, C
hap
ter 4
«Eco
systems, th
eirp
rop
erties,g
oo
ds, an
d services»
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
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ischlin — IP
CC
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uthor — E
TH
Zurich
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
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Bo
real forest
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CC
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uthor — E
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
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Mixed
decid
uo
us fo
rest
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Tem
perate fo
rests
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
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Tro
pical rain
forest
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Tro
pical d
ry forests
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Ökosystem
eÖ
kosysteme
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Mo
un
tain F
orests
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Eco
systems S
ervices
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Imp
acts on
Su
pp
ortin
g S
ervices
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
(medium
confidence)
20%-30%
of h
igh
er plan
tsan
d an
imals at h
igh
risk of
extinctio
n
if �T
1.5°C - 2.5°C
over p
resent
Imp
acts on
Bio
diversity
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Bio
diversity H
otsp
ots (tro
p.
Rain
forests, co
ral reefs)
In biodiversity hotspots (e.g. coral reefs,tropical rain forests) 15-40%
endemics at risk;
half of nature reserves fail
+3°+
3.5
°
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Su
mm
ary
Imp
acts on
Bio
diversity
From
Figure S
PM
.2(IP
CC
, 2007. Sum
mary for P
olicy Makers by W
orking Group II A
R4 IP
CC
)
Th
e warm
er, the m
ore n
egative th
e imp
acts!
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Eco
systems S
ervices
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Imp
acts on
Pro
vision
ing
Services
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
(medium
confidence)
Fo
restry
Globally, com
mercial tim
ber productivityrises m
odestly with clim
ate change inthe short- to m
edium-term
, with large
regional variability around the globaltrend.
IPC
C, 2007. S
PM
WG
II, p.12
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Increasing Trends in F
ire FrequenciesS
ection 4.4.5(F
ischlin et al.,2007. IP
CC
WG
II)
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Forest pests - e.g
. Can
ada
(Dendroctonus ponderosae, C
ol., Scolytidae)
Mountain pine beetle
Section 4.4.5
(Fischlin et al.,
2007. IPC
C W
GII)
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Su
mm
ary
Imp
acts on
Pro
vision
ing
Services
(Fo
restry)
Th
e warm
er, the m
ore n
egative th
e imp
acts!
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Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Eco
systems S
ervices
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Imp
acts on
Reg
ulatin
g S
ervices
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Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
On
the ro
le of terrestrial
ecosystem
s (inclu
din
g fo
rests)
Over the course of this century, net
carbon uptake by terrestrialecosystem
s is likely to peak beforem
id-century and then weaken or
even reverse, thus amplifying
climate change.
(high con�dence)IP
CC
, 2007. SP
M W
GII, p.11
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Mo
re Carb
on
Sto
red in
Eco
systems
Figure 4.1: E
cosystems addressed - C
stocks, areal extent (Fischlin et al., 2007. IP
CC
WG
II)
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
So
me D
GV
M R
esults - L
PJ B
1 EC
HA
M5
Figure 4.3 (b): P
rojected appreciable changes (>20% per
spatial unit transformed) in terrestrial ecosystem
s by 2100relative to 2000 (F
ischlin et al., 2007. IPC
C W
GII)
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
So
me D
GV
M R
esults - L
PJ A
2 Had
CM
3
Figure 4.3 (a): P
rojected appreciable changes (>20% per
spatial unit transformed) in terrestrial ecosystem
s by 2100relative to 2000 (F
ischlin et al., 2007. IPC
C W
GII)
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Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Sin
k service at risk
Figure 4.2: S
imulated net carbon exachange betw
een terrestrial ecosystems and atm
osphere(F
ischlin et al., 2007. IPC
C W
GII)
> 2.5
°
+3°
+2°
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Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Su
mm
ary
Em
ission
s from
ecosystem
s(in
cl. forests)
From
Figure S
PM
.2(IP
CC
, 2007. Sum
mary for P
olicy Makers by W
orking Group II A
R4 IP
CC
)
Th
e warm
er, the m
ore n
egative th
e imp
acts!
4 Ad
aptatio
nan
d F
orests
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Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
•E
cosystems� resilience
matters
Som
e adaptation hasbecom
e unavoidableA
daptive adaptation isneededF
oster diversity to enhanceresilience
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Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Ad
aptatio
n req
uires an
ticipatio
n o
fclim
ate chan
ge an
d its im
pacts
1.Em
issions scenario2.C
limate m
odel3.D
ownscaling
4.Forest m
odel
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Ex. su
balp
ine
Fo
rests
Fischlin &
Gyalistras, 1997. G
lobal Ecol. B
iogeogr. - Hafner, 2000.
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
…an
d tem
perate fo
rests
Fuhrrer, B
eniston, Fischlin, F
rei, Goyette, Jaspte &
, P�ster, 2006. C
lim. C
hange, 79: 79-102
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45
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
•E
cosystems� resilience
matters
Som
e adaptation hasbecom
e unavoidableA
daptive adaptation isneededF
oster diversity to enhanceresilience
8.Dec.207
46
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Desiq
uilib
rium
Recen
t Clim
ate and
Fo
restsC
limate
Theato, G
yalistras, Fukutom
e and Fischlin,, 2007 (in prep.)
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
So
me C
limate C
han
ge N
ow
Un
avoid
able
IPC
C, 2007
Un
avoid
able W
armin
g:
By 2005: +0.74°C
By 2100: +
0.6°C
Total:+1.34°C
(Min
imu
m!)
IPC
C 2007 (In IP
CC
AR
4 WG
I SP
M)
Figure T
S.32: M
ulti-model m
eans of surface warm
ing (IPC
C, 2007. T
echnical Sum
mary W
GI)
8.Dec.207
48
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
•E
cosystems� resilience
matters
Som
e adaptation hasbecom
e unavoidableA
daptive adaptation isneededF
oster diversity to enhanceresilience
8.Dec.207
49
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Interd
epen
den
cies => Un
pred
ictability
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ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
19901995
20002005
2010
CO2
Eii(GtC 1 )
5 6 7 8 9 10A
ctual emissions: C
DIA
CA
ctual emissions: E
IA450ppm
stabilisation650ppm
stabilisationA
1FI A
1B
A1T
A2
B1
B2
50-yearconstantgrowth ratesto 2050
B1 1.1%,
A1B 1.7%,
A2 1.8%A1FI 2.4%
2006
Observed2000-20063.3%
Recen
t Em
ission
Tren
ds
Emissions (Gt C/yr)
5 Vu
lnerab
ilities
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Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Fu
ture R
esilience o
f Eco
systems
The resilience of m
any ecosystems is
likely to be exceeded this century by anunprecedented com
bination of climate
change, associated disturbances (e.g.,�ooding, drought, w
ild�re, insects,ocean acidi�cation), and other globalchange drivers (e.g., land use change,pollution, overexploitation of resources).(high con�dence)
IPC
C, 2007. S
PM
WG
II, p.11
8.Dec.207
53
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Golden toad
(Bufo periglenes)
First E
viden
ce:R
ecent C
limate C
han
ge => E
xtinctio
ns
Go
lden
toad
and 74 other amphibian species
extinct in montane cloud forests
(Pounds et al., 2006; P
armesan, 2006)
Monteverde harlequin frog
(Atelopus
sp.)
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Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
Eco
system�s resilien
ce exceeded
2-3
°
Co
nflict w
ith A
rticle 2 of UN
FC
CC
:T
he ultimate objective of this
convention .. is .. stabilization ofgreenhouse gas concentrations inthe atm
osphere at a level .. to allo
weco
systems to
adap
t natu
rally…
Figure T
S.6:C
ompendium
of projected risks due to critical climate change im
pacts on ecosystems for different levels of global m
ean annualtem
perature rise IPC
C, 2007. T
echnical Sum
mary W
GII
8.Dec.207
55
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
•E
cosystems� resilience
matters
Som
e adaptation hasbecom
e unavoidableA
daptive adaptation isneededF
oster diversity to enhanceresilience
8.Dec.207
56
Andreas F
ischlin — IP
CC
Coordinating Lead A
uthor — E
TH
Zurich
+36%
10002000
Th
anks fo
r you
r attentio
nww
w.ip
cc.ch w
ww
.sysecol.eth
z.chan
dreas.�
schlin
@en
v.ethz.ch
