Forestcluster Ltd Bio-based economy scenario process Tiina Pursula, Juha Vanhanen, Paula Tommila Gaia Group Ltd | 15.11.2011

Bio-based economy scenario process

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Reporting

7.10.2011 9.11.2011 9.12.2011 January

Workshop III

R&D themes of the Bio-based

Economy SHOK

Workshop II

Winning concepts of the

Bio-based economy in

2030

Workshop I

Creation of Bio-based economy

Scenarios for 2030

The wider perspective

Concrete opportunities in

the wider perspective

The SHOK context

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Value network of Bio-based economy sectors

Recycling Chemicals

Packaging

Energy

Forest

Food

Bio-based Materials

Pharma and cosmetics

Nutrients and Feed

Bio products

Agro

Technology

Pulp and paper

Wood products

Services

Funding

Education

R&D

Integration

Water

Textiles

Biofuels

What is Bio-based economy?

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“The bio-economy includes all industries and economic sectors that produce, manage, and otherwise exploit biological resources (and related services, supply or consumer industries) such as agriculture, food, fisheries, forestry etc.” EU Bio-economy conference, 2005

“Bio economy is the part of economy, which creates growth and jobs by developing, refining and using biological resources in an environmentally sustainable way… ...Worth nearly €2 trillion, the European bio-economy provides around 22 million jobs in Europe across sectors as diverse as agriculture, forestry, fisheries, food, chemicals and bio-fuels. This is the impressive reality of the European bio-economy. It is an indispensable part of all of our lives and plays a major role in making our lives better.” Máire Geoghegan-Quinn, EU Research and Innovation Commissioner, 2010

“The Knowledge-based Bio-economy is a broad concept which can be defined in a number of ways. In essence, the vision is of a Europe of the future in which fossil fuel feedstocks have been replaced by renewable plant raw materials, chemical processes replaced by biological ones and waste virtually eliminated by working in closed-loop systems. Above all, it will build on a strong European knowledge base of enabling science and technology and will generate sustainable employment for European citizens.“ EU Bio-Economy conference, 2010

...Industries and economic sectors that exploit biological resources... …Agriculture, forestry, fisheries, food, chemicals and bio-fuels... ...Replacing fossil fuel feedstocks... ...Eliminating waste... ...Sustainability... ...Strong knowledge base... ...Growth and employment... ...Societal benefits...

What is Bio-based economy?

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” A bio-economy is perceived as an economy based on sustainable production and conversion of biomass to be used as a major resource in a wide variety of industries. The locality of biomass production and low sustainability of its transportation over long distances calls for a distributed bio-economy consisting of a variety of small-scale solutions. The bio-economy strives to integrate the biomass flows of different industries in such a way that one industry’s waste or emissions become another industry’s raw material. This approach is a means to create effective material loops and fight the problems of climate change and resource depletion.” Sustainable Bio-economy: Potential, Challenges and Opportunities in Finland, Sitra 2010

“Biotechnology offers technological solutions for many of the health and resource-based problems facing the world. The application of biotechnology to primary production, health and industry could result in an emerging “bioeconomy” where biotechnology contributes to a significant share of economic output. The bioeconomy in 2030 is likely to involve three elements: advanced knowledge of genes and complex cell processes, renewable biomass, and the integration of biotechnology applications across sectors”. OECD (2009) The Bioeconomy to 2030: designing a policy agenda.

“A bio-based economy is based on production paradigms that rely on biological processes and, as with natural ecosystems, use natural inputs, expend minimum amounts of energy and do not produce waste as all materials discarded by one process are inputs for another process and are reused in the ecosystem.” Franz Fischler, 2010 (from WWF, Denmark)

...Biotechnological solutions for health and resource-based problems...Economic output...Renewable biomass... ...Integration of biotech applications and biomass flows across sectors... Effective material loops... ...Production paradigms that rely on biological processes... ...Small-scale solutions...

Bio-based economy in the SHOK context

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Value addition from bio-based raw materials

Closed material cycles

Intelligent, integrated, resource and energy efficient concepts

Technology integration

Novel business and market opportunities

Bio-based economy as a solution to grand challenges:

climate change, resource depletion, population growth

Competences and R&D:

Focus on renewal

Future oriented approach: from sectors of today into

visions of the future

Sustainability: an essence of all

bio-based economy

A new societal system: Way forward from the current fossil-based economy

Impacts on society: Growth, jobs, economic output, wellbeing and sustainability

Bio-based economy scenarios in 2030

Main Drivers ”How the critical factors develop”

• World trade & Economy

• Innovations and renewal

• Policy and regulation

• End-user Demand

• Societies

• Food

• Energy

• Natural resources

• Environment and climate change

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Outcomes 2030 ”How the world looks like”

• Business opportunities

• Value networks

• Material flows

• Markets

• Products, services and concepts

• Development of regions … Competitiveness

… Well-being

… Sustainability

bu

sin

ess

peo

ple

n

atu

re

World trade & economy

Policy and regulation

Natural resources

Societies

Biomass

”Everything is depending on everything” A very complex system!

Food

Innovations and renewal

End-user demand

Energy

Water

Bio products

Environment and climate

change Land

Minerals

Nutrients

Bio-based economy scenarios in 2030

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”The Green renewal” International regulation is developed so that it provides a favorable operating environment for renewal and development of the bio-based economy.

”Drifting or steering?” Business as usual; attempts to re-organize global economical and environmental regulation and incentives continue, but with low success.

”Battle for resources and survival” Control of global economy and climate change runs out of reach and international organizations lose their power. Global economy collapses. © David Ciemny

© mbbirdy

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Winning concept of

the Bio-based economy in 2030

Innovativeness:

No ready-made solutions available

Technology availability

Globally significant business

opportunities:

Market need and end user demand

Support from policy and regulation

Includes the key elements of the Bio-based economy:

Value addition from bio-based raw materials

Closed material cycles

Intelligent, integrated, resource and energy efficient concepts

Technology integration

Sustainable utilization of natural resources:

Raw material availability

Winning concepts of Bio-based economy in 2030

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”The Green renewal” International regulation is developed so that it provides a favorable operating environment for renewal and development of the bio-based economy.

© David Ciemny

© mbbirdy

• Integrated technologically advanced biorefineries for both urban and rural based feedstocks and a range of products with varying added value

• Advanced bio-based energy products and systems • New plants for specific purposes • Concepts for optimized biomass supply chain including waste and side

streams • Recycling concepts for closed cycles of carbon, phosphorus and other

nutrients

Weak signals of Bio-based economy in 2030

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”The Green renewal” International regulation is developed so that it provides a favorable operating environment for renewal and development of the bio-based economy.

© David Ciemny

© mbbirdy

• Robust process concepts combining small and large scale, re-thinking processes and on-site processing (e.g. during transportation)

• Land use management concepts optimizing various needs and safeguarding biodiversity and overall sustainability, keeping the biomass supply chain in mind

• Concepts for sustainable local food production and fair and sufficient distribution of food

• Community scale production e.g. transport fuels from household waste on site • Fresh water production from sea water (and waste water) • Ecosystem services and immaterial value of natural resources

Winning concepts of Bio-based economy in 2030

13

”Drifting or steering?” Business as usual; attempts to re-organize global economical and environmental regulation and incentives continue, but with low success.

© David Ciemny

© mbbirdy

© mbbirdy

• Efficient logistics and trading concepts to level bio-based feedstock production and demand

• High value added products that maximize the value from the certain feedstock

• Robust mainly urban based biorefineries and production facilities with high feedstock flexibility

• Robust, multipliable and modular cost-effective solutions for improved standard of living in emerging middle class of the developing countries: housing, food and packaging, transport

• Low carbon solutions in certain regulated markets

Weak signals of Bio-based economy in 2030

14

”Drifting or steering?” Business as usual; attempts to re-organize global economical and environmental regulation and incentives continue, but with low success.

© David Ciemny

© mbbirdy

© mbbirdy

• Intensity of food production: more food from the same surface area • Phosphorus and other nutrients recycling from sanitation waste, fish waste

and other sources • Management of various (local) feedstocks and complex supply chains:

(Locally) tailored solutions for biomass supply across industries and communities

• Locally superior concepts that can be protected

Winning concepts of Bio-based economy in 2030

15

”Battle for resources and survival” Control of global economy and climate change runs out of reach and international organizations lose their power. Global economy collapses.

© David Ciemny

© mbbirdy

© David Ciemny

• Concepts for efficient utilization of locally available rich natural resources and trading to complement resource deficits, ”modern barter”

• Material reuse and simple recycling systems • Land management concepts and land ownership development concepts • Local (and backyard) concepts for material and energy efficient integrated

production of commodities: food, energy and materials • New sources of food for areas which suffer from environmental changes, new

crops and new cultivation methods • Concepts for local availability of fresh water and water management

Weak signals of Bio-based economy in 2030

16

”Battle for resources and survival” Control of global economy and climate change runs out of reach and international organizations lose their power. Global economy collapses.

© David Ciemny

© mbbirdy

© David Ciemny

• Water-efficient and waterless processes (e.g. ionic liquids) • Water cultivation systems and utilization of water-based biomass • Mobile small mills, which can be moved easily close to the raw material • Functioning decision-making systems in societies, making it possible to make

the most out of rare resources • Organic farming concepts with more closed nutrient cycle

Winning concepts of Bio-based economy in 2030

• Closed, integrated material cycles across industries and communities

• Trading and logistics of bio-based feedstocks locally and globally to level supply and demand

• Concepts for material and energy efficient integrated production of bio-based energy and materials with high feedstock flexibility

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© mbbirdy © David Ciemny

Weak signals of Bio-based economy in 2030

• Recycling of phosphorus and other nutrients and minerals

• Concepts for improved availability and efficient use of water

• Concepts for sustainable and intensive local food production

• Land management concepts

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© mbbirdy © David Ciemny

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