Forest Fire Simulation Proposal
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Transcript of Forest Fire Simulation Proposal
FOREST FIRE SIMULATION PROPOSAL
Sophie Schneider, Gordon Read, Evan Holmes, Trevor Isner, Sami Anderson
Introduction• Waldo Canyon Fire forced 11,000 people
from their homes (Summer 2012)• Entire area was affected by higher
temperatures and air pollution• Burn scars led to severe flooding the
following year
Waldo Canyon Fire
Introduction• Wildfires may be better controlled with
the use of simulations that can model behaviors
• Allow us to react to real-world situations more effectively
• Investigative Question: How does forest fire composition affect the behavior of forest fires in the Southern Colorado region?
Variables Independent Variables Dependent Variables
● Type of vegetation● Distribution of vegetation● Elevation● Humidity● Wind direction and speed● Atmospheric temperature● Cause of fire● Placement of bodies of
water
● Temperature of fire● Movement of fire● Spotting chance● Size
Proposal• Simulation specifically designed for the
Southern Colorado region• Funding would allow us to deepen the
simulation to be more accurate o More tree typeso Weather patterns
• Access to servers with related information would be of use
What is fire?Combustion• Fuel reacts with oxygen to release heat energy (exothermic reaction).
• Gases break down due to heat and make new compounds (carbon dioxide, water, soot…)
• Fuels can be solid, liquid or gas, however combustion only occurs between gasses.
Fire Tetrahedron• Heat, fuel, oxygen, uninhibited chemical chain reaction
o Creates heat to sustain flame• Redox reaction
o Oxygen becomes reduced, fuel becomes oxidized
How Fires WorkFour Stages of Fire• Ignition: Fuel, oxygen and heat form together in a chemical reaction
• Growth: Additional fuel ignites with the initial heat and flame.
• Fully Developed: Fire has covered and consumed most of the fuel
• Decay: Fire has consumed all fuel, causing temperatures to decrease, and eventually leads to a burn out.
Heat Transfer• Radiation: The transfer of energy via waves (through space)
• Convection: The transfer of heat energy due to the “physical movement” of hot air.
• Conduction: The transfer of heat energy with material, itself. Most fires spread due to conduction
How do forest fires start?• Human causes
o 90% of wildfires caused by humanso Unattended campfires, burning of debris, discarded cigaretteso Intentional acts of arson
• Natural causeso Volcanic eruptionso Lightning strikes
Unusually long-lasting hot lightning strikes Currents of less voltage, but strikes occur for longer
periods of time
What are the types of plants in the Southern Colorado region?
• Plants used in simulation:o Trees o Shrubs/undergrowth
• There are many different tree and plant species common to Southern Coloradoo Due to lack of funding, only three tree
species and three shrubs will be highlighted.
Tree Species Type of Tree Elevation Tree
Height Characteristics
Blue Spruce 6,700-11,500 feet 70-115 feet thin bark, shallow roots, low branches
Ponderosa Pine 6,300-9,500 feet 40-160 feet thick bark, high-moisture content, open crowns, high branches
White Fir 7,900-10,200 feet 60-125 feet thin bark, resinous wood, low branches
Undergrowth Type of Shrub
Elevation Shrub Height
Moisture Requirement
Western Chokecherry
4,500-8,500 feet
6-10 feet moderate
Sagebrush 4,500-9,500 feet
4-6 feet low
Fourwing Saltbrush
4,000-8,000 feet
0-4 feet low
What weather conditions affect the behavior of a forest fire?
Temperature:● When underbrush receives solar radiation, it
evaporates internal moisture, allowing them to be more susceptible to burning
● Higher susceptibility to burning: more underbrush ignites faster, spreading fire quickly.
● Afternoons are usually the hottest, and therefore the most likely time for fires to start or spread.
What weather conditions affect the behavior of a forest fire? Wind:● Most unpredictable factor● Supplies fire with oxygen, giving it more energy● Stronger winds can push fire into a certain direction, accelerating
it● Makes fuel (underbrush) dry faster by transporting moisture● Large fires can develop their own, very strong, wind patterns
Spotting:• Embers from fire are picked up by wind and can land outside of
fire area• Can start new fires or accelerate growth of fire• Usually the reason for fires crossing roads, rivers, etc.
What weather conditions affect the behavior of a forest fire?
Moisture:● Amount of water vapor in the air● Moisture absorbs heat from fire, making fuels
harder to ignite● When air is saturated with moisture, moisture is
released as rain○ Greatly raises moisture levels in fuels○ Helps extinguish fires
How will the simulation be created?• Plant Class
• Majority of actors• Two Sub-classes
• Variables not applicable to both• Methods apply to all
Class →
Variables →
Methods →
Tree Shrub
barkThickbranchStartleafType
shrubType
Sub-class →
Variables →
Plant
burnRatemoistureelevMinelevMaxheightageProx
resist()checkProx()
How will the simulation be created?• Fire Class
o Not in the original worldo startType based on user Inputo Has a chance to spoto Will remove the objects from the worldo Might go out on its own
Fire
startTypeTemperaturespotChancewindSpeed
windDirect
burn()getSpotChance()
spot()getWindInfo()
goOut()jumpWater()
Class →
Variables →
Methods →
How will the simulation be created?
• Very simple• Chance to block fire based on
thickness of river/lake side in which fire approaches
Water
blockFire()
Class →
Method →
HypothesisBased on preliminary research, we predict:If a simulation of a forest consisting of densely
spaced trees featuring thin bark, shallow roots, low branches, and resinous wood in a dry, windy climate is ignited, then the simulation will demonstrate higher temperatures and a faster spread rate than a forest with thick bark, high moisture content, and mature trees because these characteristics are reflected in real-world wildfires.
Conclusion• We ask for funding and access to information to
help us expand upon our simulation to model real-world situations more accurately.o Research different variables (trees, weather conditions,
distributions, etc.), running and testing the simulation, increase workforce so simulation is ready for this summer,...
• Simulation would allow effective response to and reduced effects of future wildfires such as the Waldo Canyon Fire.
Photo creditshttp://public.media.smithsonianmag.com/legacy_blog/05_22_2013_forest-fire.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/03/Waldocanyon.jpg/300px-Waldocanyon.jpghttp://appraisalforensicsinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/waldo-canyon-fire-1.jpghttp://www.animatedgif.net/fireexplosions/explosion2_e0.gifhttp://s454.photobucket.com/user/oldcatman/media/forest_fire_hg_clr.gif.htmlhttp://www.treeinabox.com/Ponderosa-Pine.htmlhttp://www.realchristmastrees.org/dnn/Education/TreeVarieties/ConcolorFir.aspxhttp://dictionary.reference.com/browse/colorado+blue+sprucehttp://calphotos.berkeley.edu/imgs/512x768/0000_0000/1012/0856.jpeghttp://www.tarleton.edu/Departments/range/Shrublands/Miscellaneous/miscshrub.htmlhttp://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/mt/about/?cid=nrcs144p2_057763
BibliographyAll About Fire. (n.d.). Retrieved February 21, 2014, from National Fire
Protection Association website: https://www.nfpa.org/press-room/
reporters-guide-to-fire-and-nfpa/all-about-fire
Bonsor, K. (n.d.). How Wildfires Work: Weather's Role in Wildfires. Retrieved
February 21, 2014, from HowStuffWorks.com website:
http://science.howstuffworks.com/nature/natural-disasters/wildfire2.htm
Colorado's Major Tree Species. (n.d.). Retrieved February 21, 2014, from Colorado State
University website: http://csfs.colostate.edu/pages/major-tree-species.html
Cottrell, W. H., Jr. (2004). The Book of Fire. Missoula, MT: Mountain Press
Publishing.
Bibliography (cont.)Hix, E. (Ed.). (n.d.). Heat Transfer. Retrieved February 21, 2014, from Auburn
website: https://fp.auburn.edu/fire/heat_transfer.htm
Klett, J., Fahey, B., & Cox, R. (2008, July). Native Shrubs for Colorado
Landscapes. Retrieved March 7, 2014, from Colorado State University
website: http://www.ext.colostate.edu/pubs/garden/07422.html
Wildfire Causes. (n.d.). Retrieved February 21, 2014, from Fire and Aviation
Management website: http://www.nps.gov/fire/wildland-fire/learning-center/
fire-in-depth/wildfire-causes.cfm
Wildfires across Colorado. (2012, June 6). Retrieved February 21, 2014, from
NASA website: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/fires/main/usa/
colo-20120626.html