Forest Fire Detection in Ontario Rob McAlpine Program Leader, Forest Fire Science and Technology...
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Transcript of Forest Fire Detection in Ontario Rob McAlpine Program Leader, Forest Fire Science and Technology...
Forest Fire Detection in Forest Fire Detection in OntarioOntario
Rob McAlpineRob McAlpineProgram Leader, Forest Fire Science and TechnologyProgram Leader, Forest Fire Science and TechnologyOntario Ministry of Natural ResourcesOntario Ministry of Natural ResourcesAviation and Forest Fire Management BranchAviation and Forest Fire Management Branch
Talk OutlineTalk Outline
Outline of Fire Management in OntarioOutline of Fire Management in Ontario
History of Fire DetectionHistory of Fire Detection
Current Detection operationsCurrent Detection operations
Detection ResultsDetection Results
ChallengesChallenges
Ontario’s Fire Management Program
Forests cover 85% of Ontario’s land area and forest fires have shaped much of this environment.
Land cover composed primarily of Boreal and Mixedwood Forests.
Ontario averages roughly 1,300 fires annually.
$94 million spent annually to protect communities and natural resources.
$4.1 billion in Gross Provincial Income annually attributed to forest fire protection.
PolicyFire Management Strategies
6 Fire Management Zones6 Fire Management Zones• Southern OntarioSouthern Ontario• ParksParks• Great Lakes/St. LawrenceGreat Lakes/St. Lawrence• BorealBoreal• Northern BorealNorthern Boreal• Hudson BayHudson Bay
• Ecoregion-based planning Ecoregion-based planning rather than zones based on rather than zones based on geographically or politically geographically or politically basedbased
PolicyFire Management Strategy
• Emphasizes the need to balance fire response and fire Emphasizes the need to balance fire response and fire use use
• Performance targets are aligned to policy objectives Performance targets are aligned to policy objectives • Balancing fire response against risk and ecological benefits.Balancing fire response against risk and ecological benefits.
• New performance measures have been developed:New performance measures have been developed:• Forest Depletion Area BurnedForest Depletion Area Burned• Hazard Reduction Area BurnedHazard Reduction Area Burned• Ecosystem Renewal Area BurnedEcosystem Renewal Area Burned
• A flexible response to fires through the concept of A flexible response to fires through the concept of Managed FireManaged Fire..
PerformancePerformance
The key performance measure is The key performance measure is Initial Attack SuccessInitial Attack Success
Target is 96% IA SuccessTarget is 96% IA Success
Annual Number of Fires
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
Nu
mb
er
of F
ires
Number of Fires 10 Year Average 5 Year Average
10 year average - 1,283
Annual Hectares Burned
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Year
Are
a i
n H
ec
tare
s
Area in Hectares 10 Year Average 5 Year Average
10 year average – 152,188
Organization
•Two Regional Fires Centers direct day-to day operations
• A Provincial Fire Centre oversees two Fire Region Centres
•29 Attack bases
•225 Permanent staff and 760 seasonal positions
• District Office
• Response Centre
Detection in OntarioDetection in Ontario
At the turn of the century Ontario began to At the turn of the century Ontario began to build towersbuild towers
Most towers were erected between 1920 Most towers were erected between 1920 and 1950and 1950
At the peak there were 320 active towersAt the peak there were 320 active towers
During the late 1960’s and early 1970’s During the late 1960’s and early 1970’s most towers were decommissioned – most towers were decommissioned – replaced with Aerial detectionreplaced with Aerial detection
•Aerial - Fleet of 15 Contract Aircraft •Public - Common reporting system•Reports direct to Fire Centres
Current Fire Detection Program
Detection PlanningDetection Planning
Aerial Detection Aerial Detection advantage is flexibilityadvantage is flexibility
Detection planning is Detection planning is based on risk, expected based on risk, expected fire starts, and expected fire starts, and expected fire behaviorfire behavior
Detection CostsDetection Costs
Basing fees = $675,000 for 15 contract aircraft
Positioning Fees = $225,000
Flying costs = $325 to $635 /hour/aircraft. Average 270 hours per aircraft for approximate flying costs $2,000,000
Spend around $3.0 million annually on organized detection
ResultsResultsOr:Or:
– What did we buy with that $3,000,000?What did we buy with that $3,000,000?
Or:Or:
– Some Embarrassing StatisticsSome Embarrassing Statistics
Organized Detection
23%
Random Ground48%
Random Aerial26%
Other3%
Sources of Fire Reports
Percent Discovery By Type
Low Moderate High Extreme
Organized Detection 53% 55% 51% 50%
Random Detection 47% 45% 49% 50%
FWI Class
Lightning Fires Only
Low Moderate High Extreme
Organized Detection 0.37 0.51 0.69 1.01
Random Detection 0.50 0.43 0.60 0.71
Discovery Size (ha)
FWI Class
ChallengesChallenges
Performance measuresPerformance measures
Investment levelInvestment level
Integration of new technologyIntegration of new technology
Performance MeasuresPerformance Measures
Audit ResultsAudit Results
Working towards A robust performance Working towards A robust performance measuremeasure
Recognize Detection as Part of a larger Recognize Detection as Part of a larger systemsystem
Life Cycle of a Forest FireLife Cycle of a Forest Fire
Detection PerformanceDetection Performance
Goal of Goal of Forest Fire Detection:Forest Fire Detection:
Deliver Fires to Suppression Deliver Fires to Suppression Organization at a state that guarantees Organization at a state that guarantees a high probability of IA success at a a high probability of IA success at a minimum costminimum cost..
Draft Goal
Detection PerformanceDetection Performance
Goal of Goal of Organized Forest Fire Detection:Organized Forest Fire Detection:
Deliver Fires to Suppression Deliver Fires to Suppression Organization at a state that guarantees Organization at a state that guarantees a high probability of IA success without a high probability of IA success without competing with other detection sourcescompeting with other detection sources
Draft Goal
Conceptual Detection TargetConceptual Detection Target
Detection Size
Exp
ecte
d F
ire B
ehav
ior 96% likely successful
Initial Attack
Different Suppression Weights
Detection Performance Detection Performance Complicating FactorsComplicating Factors
Cost Trade OffsCost Trade Offs– Suppression weight vs additional detectionSuppression weight vs additional detection
Build in “Random Detection” into systemBuild in “Random Detection” into system– do not want to competedo not want to compete
SummarySummary
Ontario’s Fire Management Strategy allows for Managed Ontario’s Fire Management Strategy allows for Managed FireFire
Fire load and area burned is highly variableFire load and area burned is highly variable
Ontario uses a fleet of contract aircraft for fire detectionOntario uses a fleet of contract aircraft for fire detection
Most fires are detected by “random” sourcesMost fires are detected by “random” sources
Working towards a robust performance measureWorking towards a robust performance measure
Thank YouThank You