Foresight Technical Report on the Ericsson 2020...

Synopsis: Technical Foresight Report on the Ericsson 2020 vision. The report includes scenarios, trends, challenges and recommendations for further TFMC activities and carrier project proposals. The content is input to the TFMC Foresight Study lead by professor Magnus Boman (EIT ICT Labs catalyst leader for Innovation Radars).

TFMC 2011

Foresight Technical Report on

the Ericsson 2020 vision

Kåre Synnes, PhD

2012-01-11 “I want out-of-the box thinking. I want to know what the Commission can do to facilitate media's contribution to our democracy and economic growth. The digital revolution is turning media upside down: how can we use the digital Single Market and other tools to capture the potential of this new dynamic?"

--- European Commission Vice-President Neelie Kroes

Perspectives on the Ericsson 2020 vision P a g e | 2 2012-01-11

Executive summary This report aims to identify trends, challenges and recommendations in regard of Future Media and Content Delivery (Networked Media). This foresight will help expose future themes with high innovation and business potential based on a timeframe roughly 15 years ahead, or 2030! The purpose is to create a common outlook on the future of ICT and to establish a strong community across EIT ICT Labs nodes and partner organizations. Trends

1. Information technologies are very rapidly converging and evolving into pervasive services where the users no longer consider that they interact with computing systems.

2. The European citizens use of the Internet will soon become ubiquitous, where mobile access and media applications based on social networks are two important enablers.

3. People from Generation E are increasingly different from previous generations, through acceptance and adaption to modern computing and communication technologies, while consuming media in parallel.

4. Virtual communities may become the new ‘brands’ of services, offering the coherent user experience for particular needs not possible to detail by a general service provider or operator.

5. Service innovation will increasingly express itself as uniquely adapted services for a world market through app stores.

6. Towards pervasive access to scalable services using almost any device and any network connection.

7. The traditional role of the media distributors is fading, through the advent of digital media and Internet distribution, where instead an almost direct connection between producers and consumers are made possible.

Challenges

1. Enabling automatic creation of micro-communities based on social context while using proper user and identity management.

2. Increased personalization of services and new requirements on collaboration means that a major challenge lies in interoperability and simplicity of on-line communication services.

3. Wide support of a nomadic lifestyle where access to media and information becomes truly pervasive and ubiquitous.

4. To make heterogeneous network access (2G, 3G, 4G, WiFi) pervasively available without burdening the user and while sponsoring the provisioning of the network access through a sustainable business model.


5. Making devices and services pervasively available for the mobile user to enable nomadic behavioural patterns, where the user is always connected and has access to information services irrespective of time, place and device.

6. Protecting privacy and integrity through a user-centric view on ownership of personal data (by legislative means).

7. To migrate services between devices and to support ad-hoc utilization of devices. That is, for instance to move a call from the mobile device to a richer environment like a full-scale conferencing environment on a personal computer or to dynamically allocate resources from the environment like monitors, cameras, speakers, and in-put devices.

8. M2M communication is one of the major enablers for the Internet of Things, but at the same time a major barrier due to many network operators pricing models.

Recommendations

1. Use Sweden as a test-bed for Europe due to the widespread acceptance and adoption of new technology.

2. Utilize social computing to make (media) services more pervasive and easy to distribute and use.

3. Look at how ‘the Internet of Things’ boom of devices and new requirements on pervasive network access will affect business for virtual operators.

4. The future society is dependent on sustainable solutions for communication and collaboration. It is therefore inherently important to study nomadic user behavior and thus pervasive access to information and media.

5. Study how virtual communities and economies may effect innovation and growth.

The Ericsson 2020 vision is maybe from 2009 but is still accurately depicting life in 2020 and beyond. However, much has happened since then that must be regarded as very disruptive to the whole ecosystem of media and communication. The advent of on-line stores for applications and media, such as Apple Store and Android Market, and the enormous uptake of social media applications, such as Facebook and Twitter, are two major changes on the market. One main comment is that virtual communities may be a major factor when it comes to new service innovation and that service and media distribution may be driven by unique needs facilitated by a world market at the feet of users. This enables enormous potentials for innovation, enabled by the Internet of Things, where users can create personalized media services for particular needs based on access to open data and through leveraging on social networks. There are however huge challenges mainly around privacy and integrity concerns, M2M communication prices and the reduction of complexity for pervasive systems.


Finally, the belief is that communication in the future will be embedded together with supporting widgets, as depicted in the scenarios. That is, using contextual information to select the best communication environment possible, whether it is a webpage with real-time properties or a dedicated app while involving multiple devices possibly selected by proximity and relation. By 2030, communication will be embedded into virtually anything.


Document Details Action Line: TFMC – Future Media and Content Delivery KIC Activity Name: General Action Line TFMC KIC Activity Identifier: 11663 Task: T11 – Innovation Radar LTU Catalyst: Innovation Radar Deliverable: D12 Type: Foresight Technical Report Date: 2012-01-11 Status: Final Partner: Luleå University of Technology (LTU) Participant: Kåre Synnes, PhD, LTU/PMC, [email protected] (editor)


Contributors Johan Kristiansson, PhD, Ericsson, [email protected] Daniel Enström, Ericsson, [email protected] Henrik Abramowicz, Ericsson, [email protected] Stefan Håkansson, Ericsson, [email protected] Kåre Synnes, PhD, LTU/PMC, [email protected] Michael Nilsson, LTU/CDT, [email protected] Juwel Rana, Lic., LTU/PMC, [email protected] Prof Peter Parnes, PhD, LTU/PMC, [email protected] Prof Magnus Boman, PhD, SIC/KTH, [email protected] Mikael Börjeson, LTU/CDT, [email protected] Erik Kruse, Ericsson, [email protected] Nikolaus Frank, Frank Etc., [email protected]

Note that contributions from Ericsson should be seen as individual input and not as officially endorsed statements by Ericsson.


Table of Contents Executive summary .......................................................................................................................................... 2 Document Details .............................................................................................................................................. 5 Contributors ........................................................................................................................................................ 6 Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................................... 7 Foreword by Henrik Abramowicz ............................................................................................................. 8 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 10 1.1 Outline .................................................................................................................................................. 10 1.2 The Digtal Agenda and EU Media Futures Forum ............................................................. 10 1.3 Exponential Growth of Technology ......................................................................................... 11 1.4 Swedes and the Internet 2011 .................................................................................................. 13 1.5 Generation E ...................................................................................................................................... 14 1.6 Scenario – Contextual Communication with Dynamic Apps ........................................ 14 1.7 Scenario -‐ Social Group Communication (Media Version) ............................................ 15 1.8 Social Networking and Group Communication .................................................................. 17 1.8.1 Social Graphs ............................................................................................................................ 18 1.8.2 Social Recommendation ...................................................................................................... 19 1.8.3 Social Recommendation Framework ............................................................................. 20 1.8.4 Socially Aware Applications ............................................................................................... 21

2 Outside View on the Ericsson 2020 Vision ................................................................................... 23 2.1 Likely Truths ..................................................................................................................................... 23 2.2 Brands and Pipes ............................................................................................................................. 28 2.3 User choice ......................................................................................................................................... 29 2.4 Green shift .......................................................................................................................................... 30 2.5 All-‐inclusive ....................................................................................................................................... 31

3 Foresight Results ..................................................................................................................................... 33 3.1 Trends .................................................................................................................................................. 33 3.2 Challenges ........................................................................................................................................... 33 3.3 Recommendations .......................................................................................................................... 34

4 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................ 35 References .......................................................................................................................................................... 36


Foreword by Henrik Abramowicz Ericsson is a company that since 1876 has been leading the telecommunication industry based on constant creativity and innovation. Ericsson was in November 2011 recognized as a Thomson Reuters 2011 Top 100 Global Innovator1, based on achievements as one of the world’s most innovative companies. Innovations at Ericsson empower people, business and society to improve the quality of everyday life and society at large. The future Networked Society is a vision where everything that can benefit from a connection will have one. This will help to solve global challenges e.g. related to education, poverty and sustainability. Ericsson’s mobile and fixed networks, multimedia solutions and telecom services make a real difference to people’s lives, and the world we live in. The Ericsson 2020 vision is a result from the Life in 2020 project, which was lead by Erik Kruse and involved more than 450 experts both from Ericsson and from external organizations such as McKinsey, the Institute for the Future in California and the Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies. The participants predicted socio-economic trends, consumer buying patterns and sustainability of technologies to determine how life will have changed in the next decade based on social attitudes towards green products, new industries providing employment, and the growing elderly population.

15 personas from 2020 and the technology they use in their daily lives are presented on the Ericsson 2020 website2 together with 70 hypothetical mobile devices and 1 The initiative issued by the IP Solutions business of Thomson Reuters, providers of intelligent intellectual property solutions and information, analyzes patent data and related metrics in a proprietary methodology to identify the most influential organizations globally. 2 http://www.ericsson.com/campaign/2020_search_application/


services for these characters, delivered by 22 hypothetical companies. An example is the spider computer depicted above, that projects an image on a flat surface while working as a virtual input device. The objective of this report is to give an additional outside view on the Ericsson 2020 vision, specifically in regards of EIT ICT Labs thematic area of Future Media Content and Delivery (TFMC). The purpose is to direct the future TFMC agenda and to build scenarios for continued research efforts, so that future innovation is fostered and sponsored by Ericsson within the EIT framework. Even if the report has taken its starting point from Ericsson and a number of contributors are from Ericsson the statements and input should be seen as individual input and not as officially endorsed statements by Ericsson. --------------------------------------------------- Henrik Abramowicz Ericsson AB EIT ICT Labs Thematic Activity Line Leader for Future Media and Content Delivery


1 Introduction This technical report is part of the EIT ICT Labs Foresight Study and Innovation Radar within the thematic action line of Future Media Content and Delivery (TFMC). The report aims to identify key scenarios, trends, challenges and recommendations in regard of Future Media and Content Delivery. This foresight will help expose future themes with high innovation and business potential based on a timeframe at least 15 years ahead, or 2030! The purpose is to create a common outlook on the future of ICT and to establish a strong community across EIT ICT Labs nodes and partner organizations.

1.1 Outline Chapter 1 introduces characteristics for future media delivery while also presenting a set of related scenarios. Chapter 2 gives an outside view of the Ericsson 2020 vision and its implications for EIT ICT Labs. Chapter 3 presents trends, implications and recommendations with a 2030 baseline in mind. Chapter 4 draws conclusions for future EIT ICT Labs activities.

1.2 The Digtal Agenda and EU Media Futures Forum The European Commission (EC) lauched a Digital Agenda3 that put emphasis on Europe’s development towards a leading position in the world for digital services, for instance through large investments in broadband infrastructure and actions towards making Europe a digital single market. EC Vice-President Neelie Kroes established a Task Force4 and a Media Futures Forum5 to debate how to improve the policy framework for European media industries, initially by focusing on the impacts of the digital revolution on European media industries and to provide input designed to foster a pluralist media sector with quality journalism in spite of recent declining revenues. “I want out-of-the box thinking. I want to know what the Commission can do to facilitate media's contribution to our democracy and economic growth. The digital revolution is turning media upside down: how can we use the digital Single Market and other tools to capture the potential of this new dynamic?"

--- European Commission Vice-President Neelie Kroes

3 http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/index_en.htm 4 http://ec.europa.eu/information_society/media_taskforce/index_en.htm 5 http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/11/1506&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en


The Commission will be looking for Forum members to foster debate throughout 2012, by bringing ambitious personal thinking to the Forum rather than homogenized industry or company views. This enforces the commission’s focus on the importance of individual contra large enterprises. The Forum will draw on the knowledge and experience of more than 20 personalities from the publishing, broadcasting, advertising, telecommunications, equipment manufacturers, social media and online industries. EU Media Futures Forum topics:

1) What are the big trends in the media industry in Europe and globally? 2) What is the impact of these trends on business models, competition, pluralism

and content creation in Europe? 3) What are the main opportunities and barriers in creating a digital media

content market in Europe? What needs to be done to attain or overcome them?

4) How can the European media industries best benefit from the technological developments to enhance their competitiveness globally?

5) What are the conditions for sustainable business models that can deliver quality journalism?

This foresight technical report can thus be used together with the TFMC Foresight Study as an input from EIT ICT Labs to at least topics 1-4.

1.3 Exponential Growth of Technology ”We won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century - it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate). There’s even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth.”

- Ray Kurzweil

Figure 1, Kurzweil’s predictions based on Moore’s Law (Courtesy of WikiPedia).


The predictions made by Gordon Moore and Ray Kurzweil builds on that the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years (Moore’s Law). This exponential growth is a phenomenon found in regards of many related technologies and can according to Kurzweil be explained by the fact that each technological development builds on previous ones, thus accelerates accordingly.6 By 2030 the cost of computing will have passed the point where we for a 1000 USD could buy a computer with an equal capacity to the human brain (see figure 1 above).

Figure 2, Development in Speed and Latency (Courtesy of Ericsson Research) This acceleration is reflected on network technologies (as depicted in figure 2 above). A prediction is that we by 2030 will have near ubiquitous network access through interworking heterogeneous networks. Recently developed technologies like software-defined radio and antennas integrated into LCD glass etc, show that the Internet technologies can be pervasively integrated into almost anything. Ericsson’s prediction7,8 is that mobile broadband is to grow explosively, with a subscriber growth to 3.4 billion by 2015, and that up to 50 billion devices are expected to be connected by 2020. Ericsson also envision the social web of things9 where everything is connected and acts within a social context. A challenge will be to integrate these technologies pervasively into society. Alan Kay, Apple Inc, stated that what we are experiencing is “the 3rd paradigm of computing”, where ubiquitous computing (one person, many computers) will

6 Transcendent Man: Acceleration Technology http://youtu.be/X-cy4_Z9Rd0 7 As described in the Ericsson 2020 vision. 8 Ericsson Business Review, p.43

http://www.ericsson.com/ericsson/corpinfo/publications/ericsson_business_review/pdf/310/310_ebr_lowres.pdf

9 The Social Web of Things http://youtu.be/ZiwnyO3xygA


replace the paradigms of mainframes (one computer, many people) and personal computers (one person, one computer). The advent of cloud computing hints at a more complex reality where all paradigms are intermixed. By 2030, this may be seamlessly integrated in a way that we no longer think of computers and interact with technologies in the same way we do with automatic doors today – so that technology becomes a pervasive part of our daily lives. This will have a tremendous effect on society until 2030! The challenges for future media delivery are possibly only partly technological and instead mainly on interaction design and ethics (privacy and integrity).

1.4 Swedes and the Internet 2011 Sweden is in many ways a forerunner in regards of Internet usage in Europe and in the world, with among the most mobile phones and computers per capita. A recent report10 shows that:

• 88% of the population over 12 years has access to the Internet • 85% of the population have access to broadband at home • 81% of all Internet users use the Internet on a daily basis • 90% of the population has a personal computer (80% a laptop) • 2 of 3 in the younger age groups use mobile Internet • 52% of the population use social networks • 57% of the population downloads and listen to music online • 50% of the population play digital games • 50% of all 3-years olds have used the Internet at least occasionally

Figure 3, Kindergarten and WiFi As stated in the .SE report; an analysis of shared user patterns demonstrates that there are two extreme groups: advanced enthusiasts who use the Internet’s full range of possibilities more than everyone else, and the cautious group who is more restrictive and cautious in its use. In between these are the traditionalists, who

10 .SE report ”Svenskarna och Internet 2011” on Internet Statistics in Sweden. http://www.iis.se/docs/SOI2011.pdf


primarily use the Internet to acquire information, and the modernists, who are more interested in the Internet’s communicative, entertaining and social aspects. However, four of ten users are more cautious and restrictive in their Internet use. Using Sweden as a test-bed for future media services is thus a good idea, given the number of Internet users and the maturity of on-line communities.

1.5 Generation E Many anthropologists states that there are great generational differences that can be seen today, where the new generation is intrinsically accustomed to computers and mobile technologies. Ida Hult, CEO of Trendethnography, defines these as “Moklofs” or Mobile kids with lots of friends. This Generation E is used to getting rapid feedback on their opinions and actions, through a big flora of tools11. “Those ages 8 to 18 spend more than 7,5 hours a day with such devices, compared with less than 6,5 hours 5 years ago, when the study was last conducted. And that does not count the 1,5 hours that youths spend texting, or the 0,5 hour they talk on their cellphones. And because so many of them are multitasking — say, surfing the Internet while listening to music — they pack on average nearly 11 hours of media content into that 7,5 hours.” -- Kevin Drum, MotherJones.com A challenge is to study phenomena related to our new generations so that we build a society that gives the best possibilities for enabling new behavior across generations, thus empowering people to change throughout society.

1.6 Scenario – Contextual Communication with Dynamic Apps The core idea behind contextual communication with dynamic apps is to enhance traditionally voice-only communications with dedicated and specialized electronic applications as ‘helpers’. Curt is 18 years old and a fanatic gamer, and today he has been at a gaming party at one of his friends. They decide to order some pizza, so Curt uses his gaming machine to google for nearby pizzerias with a good renomé. He finds an interactive website where he can order pizzas, which also provides a dynamic app that initially presents the menu and how to reach the pizzeria. He order a stack of pizzas for later and goes back to gaming.

11 DN 2010-06-15 ”Generation E går sin egen väg” http://www.dn.se/insidan/insidan-hem/generation-e-gar-sin-egen-vag


A while later the pizzeria calls Curt on his mobile, because he is currently using the gaming computer for talking to gamers, which brings the dynamic app up on his mobile instead. They are out of shrimps and propose a selection of other choices. Curt selects something else and goes back to gaming. He keeps the app active on his mobile which now also shows the location of the delivery and the time that the pizzas are predicted to arrive. 5 minutes before the delivery arrives a sound alerts Curt and the gamers that the pizzas soon will arrive and that its time for a gaming break. After the pizzas the gamers decides to go downtown to watch a movie using Curt’s friend Johan’s SAAB. Halfway downtown the car starts to misfire and they stop at the side of the road. Curt brings up his mobile and searches for the representation of the car by browsing devices by proximity and social relation. The car agent suggests contacting the nearest workshop, which Curt agrees on and a dynamic app is initialized. The workshop gets the current status of the car together with the history of its maintenance, which also is presented to Curt. Curt uses embedded communication channel in the app to talk to the mechanic without need to make a call specifically and describe the problem with the car. This scenario depicts communication environments embedded into webpages or apps that also can supply widgets dynamically for specific purposes based on contextual needs. That is, all media associated with a task is automatically provided pervasively as an integrated service for the user (in a webpage or an app). Note that the communication environment can utilize multiple devices based on context such as activity, location and relation. Everything is stored in the cloud, which enables the user to find information retroactively (find the pizzerias that I have ordered from before).

1.7 Scenario - Social Group Communication (Media Version) The following scenario about Amanda and her friends points out the usefulness of a social recommendation framework to arrange a party. Amanda is a very socially active girl and she spends a lot of her free time communicating with large number of her contacts. Most of these contacts are family, friends and colleagues, while some only share common interests or goals. She communicates with them on Facebook, by twittering or through mobile calls, but she struggles with keeping herself updated with the most important activities in her social networks. Her 30th birthday is coming up, so she plans on having a party together with Melvin and Ebba, two of her friends at work that also have birthdays the same month as her. She gives them a call and they start planning what to do and whom to invite. They open up their group management tool which first filters out all their shared contacts that they have no personal relation to and then prioritizes the remaining


contacts based on how much they interact and how strong their social relation is. Several of their contacts are quite busy persons but they manage to select a date that fits the majority of them. They decide to invite 50 of the persons and generate a group invitation for the party, by recording a short video with Ebba’s mobile phone and that is automatically shared to Amanda and Melvin. Amanda then sends out the invitations using any of the convenient tools for example, Facebook to users frequently there and by SMS to the others, while starting a Twitter feed about the ongoing party activities inside the invited group members. The party at Amanda’s place is now on! John is a friend of a friend and tagged along to the party. He takes a photo of his friend and Melvin making funny faces, and is then notified of the party group to which he selects to share media to and which give him access to the media devices at Amanda’s place. John laughs as the photo turns up on Amanda’s TV, which shows media from the party. Ebba walks up to John and starts discussing music and they find out that they both attended the same concert. John selects his favorite song from the concert and pushes that to the top of the party play list, which mainly consists of songs that Amanda, Ebba and Melvin has in their private playlists but pruned and sorted by the interests of all people at the party. The scenario illustrates that simple group management can be very useful. Information about Amanda is harnessed by the group management tool, which utilizes a social recommendation engine to list, filter and prioritize her contacts and media based on the related social strengths. This is done by creating a weighted social graph that can be pruned in many ways; here by using additional information from Melvin and Ebba, as well as presence information from their contacts (calendar data). Knowledge about how she usually communicates with the persons she would like to invite is used to send out the invitations in the most suitable way to each and every one on the invitation list. She also selects a few persons from the invitation list by pruning it based on interests, with the purpose of getting help with cooking the party food. The scenario also shows how media can be shared in a dynamic group and how the social graph can be used to invite and manage access to devices in the vicinity. It also shows how presence information can be utilized together with social filtering and prioritization for the purpose of initiating group communication among users and to select media from a larger set based on personal preferences of a group of persons. Note also that media and devices are seamlessly presented to the user, where devices automatically becomes available based on proximity and context. Figure 4 depicts a Home Media Gateway from the Ericsson 2020 vision, which could work as described in the scenario where media is selected based on context for a social network.


Figure 4, Ericsson 2020 vision of a Home Media Gateway (courtesy of Ericsson/Frank etc).

1.8 Social Networking and Group Communication On-line social networking and communication services are increasingly popular methods to communicate with friends, family and communities. Statistics shows that users of services like Facebook and Twitter stretches across geographical locations, professions, age groups and habits. Smart mobile devices with Internet connectivity simplifies access to these services at anytime and from almost anywhere. However, the huge amount of user-generated content makes it difficult to identify useful information. A challenge is to create micro-communities where users may join from heterogeneous social networks, for instance for forming dynamic groups linked to enhanced communication environments using not only audio and video but also apps, while maintaining proper user and identity management. The increasing number of social networks and communication services are also creating new challenges in social media content filtering, micro-community discovery, and automatic group communication initialization. Social network information is already being considered for utilizing media distribution, such as in the FP7 project SARACEN (Socially Aware, collaboRative, scAlable Coding mEdia distributioN)12 that combines streaming of multimedia and P2P networks based on social data [1].

12 http://www.saracen-p2p.eu/


1.8.1 Social Graphs A social graph describes the relations (who is connected with whom) of actors/contacts where the actors may contain media contents and share such contents among other actors in the community [2]. Facebook adopts a hierarchical structure, the first-degree relationship between users enables two-way access to content [3]. In Twitter on the other hand there is only one-way access to content; the follower has access to the content of the host, but the host does not automatically have access to the content of the follower [4]. Furthermore, another social network, LinkedIn, is organized around the shortest relationship path between members in the social graph [5]. Therefore, connections among the actors/users are application dependent. Figure 5 depicts an aggregated social graph, where actor U presents its contacts with and without social strength. Here, social strength is a measure, where higher strength indicates higher connectivity with the contact.

Figure 5, Formal Model of an Aggregated Graph Social strength is considered as a way of providing relative weight to a particular user among the contacts. It helps to identify trusted networks, prioritizing phone-calls, e-mails, and discovering groups. In Figure 5, ASG(U with strength) corresponds social strength of U among the contacts n1, n2, n3, and nn. Social strength is limited to a particular user, which means first degree contacts of the particular user will be considered for calculating strength. The user calculates strength to the contacts with whom he/she has direct interactions. Social ranking exploits the social strength to rank contact individuals and social contents. An aggregated social graph associates all social contacts globally with the objective of managing a complete contact list rather than processing it separately for different social networks and communication services. Calculating social strength in an aggregated social graph forms a weighted social graph. In that case, all the contacts in the graph will contain a relative strength. This provides a sophisticated way of ranking contacts. However, the interaction history of the contacts is needed for such calculations. In Figure 5, ASG(U) corresponds to the aggregated social graph of the user U. It considers only first degree contacts, which are the contacts directly connected with U. A dynamic group is considered as a micro-community of contacts, which may be discovered in real-time [6]. The group can be used both on a short-term and long-


term basis. For example, creating a group for sharing content for which the life-time is very low can be considered as short-term groups, while a group for participating in collaborative activities in a project is long-term. A central concept is that members can come and go, depending of interest or activity for instance, just like in the Google+ Hangouts.

1.8.2 Social Recommendation A recommendation system assists on-line users to complete transactions in different Web services from the last decades. It provides a recommendation on a particular item. For instance, purchasing books in Amazon or purchasing an iPhone in E-bay, recommendation systems play an important role in selecting an item. Having access to the social data, the performance of the recommendation system can be improved [7, 8]. Social data is in this work used to form a personalized communication history. In Roth et al. [9], email communication history is used to identify potential groups to enhance group communication. In Ankolekar et al. [10], recommendation system phone-call logs are used as communication history, which help to discover trusted groups or forming networks. Aggregator services such as Vodafone People, Social Life are mapping different communication services to keep track of communication in more manageable ways [11]. Users may have different Social Networks (Facebook, Twitter, mySpace, Linkedin, etc), Calendar data (events), Sensor data (location, temperature), Call-logs and Contact list [12]. However, there is not much work done where user communication pattern can be analyzed based on aggregated social data. Social networking analysis and methods for social community discovery have been discussed in [13, 14, 15, 16], where discovery methods generally use static attributes such as location, profession and/or interests for identifying communities. Anupriya et al. propose the idea of using communication history for finding the strongest communities [9]. The problem of discovering group based on communication history is however not addressed in that work. Activity-oriented social networking can collect and aggregate real-time presence status from different communication services [17, 18], which can provide recommendations considering the user’s current activity. CenseMe, the personal sensing system, automatically shares presence and activity information within social graphs, where social filtering may be useful [19]. Apart from Google’s page-rank algorithm, social search techniques typically operate on a social network and perform ranking by analyzing social data [20, 8]. These techniques expose tags, bookmarks and taggers (users) as social data, while the thesis aggregates communication history considering as social data. Integration of social networks, such as Del.icio.us and Flickr, Web 2.0 applications can improve accuracy in social search and recommendation systems [21, 22]. Martin et al. propose an approach of


aggregating social data where user profiles are always integrated with the service provider [23]. The conflict of interest is measured by scientific communities mostly based on aggregated social networks populated by FOAF (friend-of-a-friend) based dataset (collecting data from Swoogle in 2005-2006) and DBLP data source [41]. In this work, social relationship is based on the publication relationship, which is domain specific.

1.8.3 Social Recommendation Framework A social recommendation framework based on social ranking can be used for many purposes, such as to filter social information and to identify groups dynamically to enhance group communication and reduce information overload.

Figure 6, Social Recommendation Framework Figure 6 shows the high level architecture of a framework for social recommendation. The framework consists of five components, the aggregated social graph (ASG) service, the communication history aggregator and the social ranker which are the main components while the end-user application and third party communication services (e.g., Myspace, Twitter) are considered as external components. Social ranking is one of the most challenging problems, in particular for services such as context-based group discovery, social content filtering, prioritization of social content, and content sharing. Algorithms for social strength calculation based on social graphs can be simplistic in design yet very effective in practice, for instance using utility functions and similarity coefficients. Typically, the end-applications send queries to the ASG service and receive recommendations. The social ranker analyzes the communication history log and


preferences taken as input from the communication history aggregator service. The communication history aggregator component collects the communication logs from the different communication services. The recommendations are context dependent, which means that this supports applications in different purposes such as ranking for prioritizing information, ranking for prioritizing contacts, creating dynamic groups, etc. In the framework, both the ASG service and social ranker utilize communication history for building the graph (i.e. global contact lists of a specific user), for generating the social strength and for providing open HTML-based API to end-user application developers.

1.8.4 Socially Aware Applications As noted in [24, 25, 26, 27] socially aware application can effect group communication positively. The presented social recommendation framework is similarly based on a recommender engine that harnesses users’ communication patterns and context from multiple social networks, communication services, sensor systems, and mobile devices. The harnessed information is used to create weighted social graphs, which express the social strength between users. The framework then utilizes the social strength to improve group communication applications through filtering, prioritization and recommendation, as depicted in figure 7 below.

Figure 7, Socially Aware Applications


The process of discovering user patterns is important for improving the social recommendations made by the framework. The presented communication model describes how multiple communication tools can be utilized to better understand users’ communication patterns. This means that users’ communication habits, in both private and public settings, can be analyzed by for instance studying users’ history of using email, on-line social media and mobile communication. The recommender engine can then weight the social graph based on preferred tools, users or contexts. The framework can also be used to user recommendations on behalf of a user or a group of users. For instance, groups can be discovered and maintained dynamically based on users’ needs and social context. It is clear that communication services can benefit from the framework by using the social strength among users to improve group communication. This may be particularly beneficial for interaction within social networks, where the large amount of user generated content needs to be filtered and prioritized for easy navigation and consumption. In conclusion, understanding of users’ communication patterns and then carefully weighting of a social graph is central for successful filtering, prioritization and recommendation. If this achieved, then group communication tools can benefit greatly through simplified interaction, such as creating a group and starting a digital conversation with a single action, or personalized services, where the tools used are configured based on users’ activity or intent.


2 Outside View on the Ericsson 2020 Vision The outside view is given from the perspectives of recent advances in social networking and media distribution technologies as well as framed by the EIT ICT Labs initiatives for 2011 and 2012. The focus will also be shifted in time towards 2030 to identify future research areas and areas of business innovation. The postulates in italics below are taken from the Ericsson 2020 vision, which form a basis for discussion and the outside perspective.

2.1 Likely Truths Networking, personalization and mobility will radically transform user patterns Ray Kurtzweil’s ‘Law of Accelerating Returns’ describes how new technology builds on previous technology in an exponentially increasing frequency. This means that technology will become commodities and that we will be able to build new services rapidly. Current research points in this direction, as new mobile services will be able to be composed by anyone using a simple visual editor or by using tangible artefacts like Sifteo devices13,14. This also enables the personalization envisioned by Ericsson that leads to a greater proliferation of services and blurring of market segments. The advent of Smart Cities or Digital Cities of the Future also includes a shift towards personalized services for citizens while considering environmental issues. Most notable the 2012 TED Prize Winner15 is ‘the City 2.0’ which depicts the large cities as the only lists challenges for sustainable life of a growing population. The Ericsson vision touches on something very important for implementing the City 2.0 idea, namely acting as a collective intelligence based on modern communication and nomadic user behaviour. This is probably the largest transformation in user patterns in the history of mankind – never before have we been able to collaborate so extensively from any place at any time. The contradiction is clear however, increased personalization of services and new requirements on collaboration means that a major challenge lies in interoperability and simplicity of on-line communication services. Another challenge for society is to more widely support a nomadic lifestyle where access to media and information becomes truly pervasive and ubiquitous. ICT solutions will be increasingly critical for enterprises to secure sustainable competitiveness

13 http://satinproject.eu/ 14 http://www.sifteo.com/ 15 http://www.tedprize.org/announcing-the-2012-ted-prize-winner/


This vision is possibly too enterprise-centric while the whole of Europe is on a political march towards the individual as an entrepreneur and worker on a global market. That is, strategic co-workers may not be part of the enterprise itself but act as individuals in new forms of virtual organizations completely setup for a particular task. This lends enterprises to be more dynamic and flexible, thus more effective, while the risk of loosing key competence increases due to a possible increased competition for knowledge workers. One billion new middle-class consumers will enter the global marketplace, mainly in Asia Note that the accelerating development of technologies as described by Kurzweil also means that technology will be acquirable at increasingly lower price points until technology becomes a commodity for almost anyone. If services also can be constructed ad-hoc or on-demand using easy-to-use environments, so that services can be created by users for users16, then needs can be met at much lower price points than today.

Figure 8, the SatinII editor that allows users to create apps for users. Operator consolidation, cross-industry collaboration and low-cost innovation will redefine the industry Communication methods and tools far beyond those of today will most certainly change the enterprises drastically, and maybe more so than envisioned by Ericsson as virtual organizations becomes more common. There is a clear push by the European Commission to support and foster a more individual focus on the European market, to allow for inter-organizational groups or virtual enterprises (as envisioned by for instance the former Collaborative Working Environments initiative

16 http://satinproject.eu/


from the EC and the AMI@work on-line Communities17. The trend is therefore that individuals will play an increasingly important role for the larger enterprises collaboration within and across industries. Note also that new collaborative technologies may increase productivity significantly, while also increasing collaboration within and across industries. An example is an EIT demonstrator during 2012, looking at using tools for distributed collaboration in mainly face-to-face settings that is dubbed ‘The Bubble’ or the octagonal hangout. It maximizes communication when co-located, using shared tools for co-editing while visualizing everyone’s work simultaneously (activity presence). It can use presence tools to invite ‘experts’ into the work session for consultation (people visualized in a social network as bubbles). Everything is shared with everyone in real time, regardless where you are, but with a focus on the people in the room.

• It is a room for maximizing communication, orally and electronically. • Presence of what everyone is doing at the same time, as each individual

screen is presented behind him or her as well and can be put in focus on a larger shared display.

• Additional people can be invited to participate when needed, electronically, and act as experts in certain matters.

• Come-and-go functionality, in and out of attention, to work collaboratively then split into parallel work and then join/split at need.

• Your screen is projected behind you for presence.

Figure 9, ‘The Bubble’ or octagonal hangout The envisioned pressure on existing telecom services, affecting revenues and margins, will most certainly happen as Asia becomes a larger factor on the market, but new services will also be likely to add to these revenues and margins. The

17 http://www.ami-communities.eu/


possibly largest change on the market is the explosive increase of devices, the famous 50 billion devices that all need to be connected and managed. Current virtual operators are a good example of a possibility here, as these new services may be too complex to develop and maintain for most operators so they will need to act as virtual operators instead. A recommendation is therefore to look at how ‘the Internet of Things’ boom of devices will affect business supporting virtual operators. Most user services will be delivered independently of the network provider It has been foreseen since the late 1990’s, by researchers like Dick Schefström at LTU and Nicholas Negroponte at MIT MediaLab, that the internet protocol (IP) will be the carrier of all services in a ‘RadioSphere’ where even users with access points could act as micro-operators for mutual or community benefits. The challenge here is to make heterogeneous network access (2G, 3G, 4G, WiFi) pervasively available without burdening the user and while sponsoring the provisioning of the network access through a sustainable business model. Everything that benefits from a wireless network connection will have one The greatest challenge of them all in a future where the number of services and devices are in abundance is to make it simple and pervasive to operate them, in isolation and as a system. The complexity of automation will be the main limiting factor. The challenge he is to make devices and services pervasively available for the mobile user to enable nomadic behavioural patterns. Another challenge is to manage information from very big data sources, such as from a city, to allow access to information at the level of individual sensor nodes while also supporting crowd-sourcing access of de-identified data for more general purposes such as pandemic tracing. China and India will emerge as economic powers with fundamental global impact This is already a fact, especially in regards of China, even if products and research is still ranked as lower in quality this will most definitely change within the next decades. For example, South Korea is already among the most aggressive countries when it comes to adapting to the networked society and the Internet of Things, as their national plan includes establishing 1 Gbps connections to be commonplace by 201218 and to build a future digital city named New Songdo19. This trend needs to be echoed throughout Europe, where we still have countries like Greece with a broadband penetration of only 20% or less.

18 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/click_online/9093991.stm 19 http://computersweden.idg.se/2.2683/1.420803/smart-stad-skapas-fran-grunden


Sustainability and scarcity of resources will shape political agendas and ignite conflicts The current imbalance of between where products are produced and where they are consumed will lessen, as the requirements of the producing regions increase. This is evident in Asia today, but will also become evident in Africa and South America, and will sharpen the competition for scarce resources. Societal vulnerabilities will increase dependency on safety and security solutions The European legislation is currently lagging when it comes to the use of pervasive and mobile technologies, but there are a few general directives that can be applied. For instance, the European telecommunication directives20,21 protect personal integrity to some extent, as they detail a user’s right to choose whether to grant (opt-in) or deny (opt-out) any use of personal information at any time. In particular, users of mobile location services:

• must be protected by privacy safeguards, • must be fully informed of the purposes of the usage of the mobile location

services, and • must have the right to determine the use of their personal information.

This should lead to the possibility of a user temporarily disabling a service, as an on/off option is required, but this is seldom implemented in that way as most services instead build on an often-complex agreement between an individual user and a service provider before the individual can use a service. This means that users generally sign of their rights through the legal agreement before starting to use a service, which most users ignore to review. By doing this they also generally give away the rights to their personal information (not only giving the service provider access to the information but also giving the provider the ownership of any such information). Instead the user should be the logical owner of any kind of private information and, most importantly, the user should be able to make informed decisions thus control what is allowed or not under certain circumstances. This is perhaps one of the greater challenges to achieve until 2030 because of its inherent nature of complexity

20 Directive 2002/21/EC is a common regulatory framework for electronic communications networks and services (Framework Directive). The Swedish law [2003:389] on electronic communication is based on this directive. 21 Directive 95/46/EC describes the protection of individuals with regard to the processing of personal data and on the free movement of such data. The Swedish law [1998:224] on personal data (personuppgiftslagen) is based on this directive.


– to protect privacy and integrity through a user-centric view on ownership of personal data (by legislative means).

2.2 Brands and Pipes New value is mainly created by large and innovative, branded service providers who offer convenient and trusted lifestyle and business service packages. Innovation is ignited by individuals but until today monetized by enterprises such as service providers. This might actually change, following the trends of Apple App Store and Android Market, unless of course you consider these being branding service providers. However, it can be argued, since IP is decoupling service providers, that the trusted and convenient services will instead be determined by social recommendations. That is, if my social contacts use a service, then I will be likely to start using it as well, thus possibly reducing the importance of brands as expressed in the Ericsson vision. Online user services are delivered over-the-top, independently of network providers and tightly integrated with devices. The tight coupling to devices will likely diminish over time, as these devices become more of a commodity. An example is the platform feud between the PC and Mac industry, where they now run on the basically the same hardware. Thus the argument is that services will also be delivered over-the-top of device platforms, where the focus lies on the user experience rather than on the device platform until we stop thinking about computers etc in isolation. The brands stated importance to for instance a coherent user experience may be exaggerated and is perhaps true for 2020 but maybe not so for 2030 or beyond. Also note that “new technology has fundamentally changed the entertainment experience and is increasingly providing audiences with more entertainment options”, as expressed in a report by Gluck and Sales [29]. This is an indication that brands will have problems in maintaining themselves as technology rapidly changes the media landscape (possible driven by new ways of delivering advertisements more adapted to a particular audience, for instance by using context and social relations). Most traditional operators end up with access and transport refocusing on scale and operational excellence. Only a few operators will manage to become brands. The traditional operators may in fact become predominately marginalized, in many cases becoming more of a virtual operator or front-end to an infrastructure provider, while services are spread using viral techniques such as through social network recommendations. A trend may be that virtual communities might actually become the new ‘brands’ of services, offering the coherent user experience for particular needs not possible to detail by a general service provider or operator.


An example from the publishing industry of this trend is that “news organizations can more easily build new audiences centered on specialized topics or interests”, as stated by Grueskin, Seave and Graves [30]. That is, the divide between network operators and service providers will only increase, driven by the demands of individuals or communities rather than from perceived needs by network operators.

2.3 User choice Many small, innovative players offer an abundance of services over-the-top, independently of the network operator, serving a multitude of unique user needs. As expressed above, the envisioned importance of brands as may be exaggerated where instead individual needs creates an increasingly fragmented market through enabling user choice to a higher degree. The possibility to reach millions of users through an app store is truly a revolution for small innovative players, while being able to facilitate a world market for services that meets unique needs that otherwise would fail on a local market. The trend is that service innovation will increasingly express itself as uniquely adapted services for a world market through app stores. Furthermore, an example from the media business is that “audience interaction with television via social networks has crucial implications for broadcasters”, as expressed in a futurescape white paper [31]. Consider that media companies can soon tailor their content to certain demographic groups or consumer communities, based on nearly real-time feedback to their content. Again, customization is made possible by reaching a world market which increases the trend of abundant over-the-top services. The futurescape whitepaper also states that: “Conventional electronic programme guides (EPGs) cannot navigate so much extra content. Solutions include suggestions based on an individual’s previous viewing preferences and critics’ choices. However, personal recommendation is thought to be even more effective”. Unique user needs will therefore likely be critical to capture, which implicates the use of context-based systems that build on recommendations from social networks and on-line communities. Online services are delivered using general purpose devices and a network interface with common service-enabling and support functions – an intelligent network operating system. HTML5 is possibly the network operating system for 2020, which decouples services from device and service-operator lock-in. That is, the trend is towards pervasive access to scalable services using almost any device and any network connection. Instead the challenge is to migrate services between devices and to support ad-hoc utilization of devices. That is, for instance to move a call from the mobile device to a richer environment like a full-scale conferencing environment on a personal computer or to dynamically allocate resources from the environment like monitors, cameras, speakers, and in-put devices.


Successful network operators will grow by controlling the network operating system or become second tier partners. Defensive operators will fail to capture new revenue streams. An increasing amount of people currently grow tired of the network operators scheme to overly monetize on ‘visitors to local markets’, such as roaming fees for data traffic in Europe. A key success factor is to overcome this perception and to deliver pervasive network access, which may be impossible through controlling the whole network operating system but instead may be facilitated by acting as a virtual network operator, while capturing new revenue streams by monetizing on provisioning of services built on knowledge of the local market.

2.4 Green shift Profound political actions on sustainability are decisively changing the priorities of societies, companies and individuals around the world. The digital cities of the future are dependant on sustainable solutions for communication and collaboration. It is therefore inherently important to study nomadic user behaviours and thus pervasive access to information and media. The recommendation is therefore to study this area within EIT as a main topic. People and enterprises will demand utility and climate smart solutions, such as e-health, telepresence and M2M communications. Social awareness through mediated presence is of general importance, not only within the elderly population to alleviate disconnectedness, but also for virtual communities in general and for migrating families where the family is distributed over the world (a common case in Sweden is that the parents live in smaller cities or outside a major city, while the kids move to cities to study and work). M2M communication is one of the major enablers for the Internet of Things, but at the same time a major barrier due to many network operators’ pricing models. This is maybe one of the major challenges to overcome. User services are delivered by trusted utility service providers. Regulations will drive investments and consolidation of the industry. Regulations may drive some key attributes and help bring down barriers, such as pervasive network access through regulating the roaming fees in Europe. They can also provide national or European network providers with a boost, where an example is the legislated right to bandwidth in Sweden that may bring an onslaught of new services and new innovation, thus escalating the network society in areas that has been lagging behind. However, legislation will most commonly lag behind the technological developments, so for key innovation other instruments need to be investigated such as initiatives to create completely new communities or even cities like Peredes in Portugal.


2.5 All-inclusive Large, vertically integrated regional players will be created through cross-industry M&A across Telecom, IT, Media, Entertainment and Electronics (TIME) sectors. The trend is that the traditional role of the media distributors is fading, through the advent of digital media and Internet distribution. Instead an almost direct connection between producers and consumers are made possible, where we might see communities of media consumers supporting production as joint ventures and where consumers in many cases become producers themselves. However, the TIME enterprises may not predominately be regional but instead global, leveraging on the new possibility to provide a unique product on a global market (possibly regional) and driven by the shift from traditional media channels to media distributed and consumed through social media. The view that “social media will rise in importance for video as a place to talk about, share, and distribute content” is enforced by a report by Künstner, Springs and Gmelin [32]. The report also indicate that TIME enterprises stands before huge challenges in a market landscape that is currently being revolutionized by the introduction of new technologies and that new alliances are necessary to leverage from this, in all essence, new media market. Driving convergence, wealthy all-inclusive providers will seek to lock users in. Users become passive, innovation is slow and entry barriers high. This is clearly underestimating the future user, as today’s Generation E is keen to take on new novel services and for instance consume multiple media in parallel (which few envisioned a decade back). Instead a belief is that locking in users will be increasingly difficult, unless the market is more or less monopolized. The Generation E is far from passive and is quite heavily affecting the media market currently, though services like Spotify. It can be argued that innovative new mobile apps and distribution through app stores can break almost any barrier available today for services. Users creating services for themselves and others will only speed up innovation further while driving fragmentation. A recent report by Virgo Communications states that “the video content business is rapidly shifting to meet new customer demand for personalized experiences” [33]. This clearly contradicts the idiom of users becoming passive and that innovation is slow, as user increasingly engage in finding individual media using new apps like the HBO Go that scored a million downloads during the first week alone. This indicates a growing interest and a nearly immediate uptake of new distribution mechanisms. Vendors will be largely dependent on the new dominating players. Overall growth will be moderate in a more regionalized economy.


A comment on this is that a disruptive technology for the future is the advent of virtual economies, in which individuals select to become associated to and benefit from. The huge gaming industry around World of Warcraft22 is an example of this, or the Entropia Universe23. Again, regions may become less of a factor and instead communities of individuals with similar interests will become a predominating force for economic growth.

22 http://eu.battle.net/wow/ 23 http://www.entropiauniverse.com/


3 Foresight Results

3.1 Trends 1. Information technologies are very rapidly converging and evolving into

pervasive services where the users no longer consider that they interact with computing systems.

2. The European citizens’ use of the Internet will soon become ubiquitous, where mobile access and media applications based on social networks are two important enablers.

3. People from Generation E are increasingly different from previous generations, through acceptance and adaption to modern computing and communication technologies, while consuming media in parallel.

4. Virtual communities may become the new ‘brands’ of services, offering the coherent user experience for particular needs not possible to detail by a general service provider or operator.

5. Service innovation will increasingly express itself as uniquely adapted services for a world market through app stores.

6. Towards pervasive access to scalable services using almost any device and any network connection.

7. The traditional role of the media distributors is fading, through the advent of digital media and Internet distribution, where instead an almost direct connection between producers and consumers are made possible.

3.2 Challenges

1. Enabling automatic creation of micro-communities based on social context while using proper user and identity management.

2. Increased personalization of services and new requirements on collaboration means that a major challenge lies in interoperability and simplicity of on-line communication services.

3. Wide support of a nomadic lifestyle where access to media and information becomes truly pervasive and ubiquitous.

4. To make heterogeneous network access (2G, 3G, 4G, WiFi) pervasively available without burdening the user and while sponsoring the provisioning of the network access through a sustainable business model.

5. Making devices and services pervasively available for the mobile user to enable nomadic behavioural patterns, where the user is always connected and has access to information services irrespective of time, place and device.

6. Protecting privacy and integrity through a user-centric view on ownership of personal data (by legislative means).

7. To migrate services between devices and to support ad-hoc utilization of devices. That is, for instance to move a call from the mobile device to a richer environment like a full-scale conferencing environment on a personal


computer or to dynamically allocate resources from the environment like monitors, cameras, speakers, and in-put devices.

8. M2M communication is one of the major enablers for the Internet of Things, but at the same time a major barrier due to many network operators pricing models.

3.3 Recommendations

1. Use Sweden as a test-bed for Europe due to the widespread acceptance and adoption of new technology.

2. Utilize social computing to make (media) services more pervasive and easy to distribute and use.

3. Look at how ‘the Internet of Things’ boom of devices and new requirements on pervasive network access will affect business for virtual operators.

4. The future society is dependent on sustainable solutions for communication and collaboration. It is therefore inherently important to study mobile and nomadic user behavior, and thus pervasive access to information and media.

5. Study how virtual communities and economies may effect innovation and growth.


4 Conclusions The Ericsson 2020 vision is maybe from 2009 but is still accurately depicting life in 2020 and beyond. However, much has happened since then that must be regarded as very disruptive to the whole ecosystem of media and communication. The advent of on-line stores for applications and media, such as Apple Store and Android Market, and the enormous uptake of social media applications, such as Facebook and Twitter, are two major changes on the market. One main comment is that virtual communities may be a major factor when it comes to new service innovation and that service distribution may be driven by unique needs facilitated by a world market at the feet of users. This enables enormous potentials for innovation as users may develop services for themselves and others. This might in particular be true for Digital Cities enabled by the Internet of Things, where users can create personalized media services for particular needs based on access to open data and through leveraging on social networks. There are however huge challenges mainly around privacy and integrity concerns, data and media ownership, M2M communication prices and the reduction of complexity for pervasive systems.


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