Foresight in the 21st Century Ready for Change

UNDP Global Centre for Public Service Excellence

Putrajaya, Malaysia

19 August 2016

Programme •  A Radically New Setting for Public Policy: A

Permanent State of Change and Disruption and An Uncertain Future "

•  The Need for Anticipatory and Adaptive Governance for national development and SDGs"

•  Visioning, Strategic Management and Resilient Planning"

•  Empowered Futures Institute"•  Do some foresight "

Our Guide

“In 2030, there will be a guaranteed, safe and healthy path through quality education for a girl from a disadvantaged background – with

real prospects for dignified employment afterwards”

Some Context: Change and Complexity

Environmental Change

1992

2007

Techn

olo

gical C

han

ge

Social Change

Complexity…"

Simple v Complicated v Complex"

Global Interdependency"

Vulnerability to shocks"

So what does this all add up to?

New Realities

Volatile Environments

Uncertain Futures

Anticipatory Governance

•  Tobe'eran+cipatechange,disrup+ons&shocks

•  Toiden+fyrisks&opportuni+es

•  Tobemoreawareoftheenvironmentinwhichoneimplementsitspolicies&projects

•  Torecognizethelonger-termimplica+onsofstrategicandpolicydecisions

Adaptive Governance

•  Tochooseresilientstrategies,policies&projects

•  Toadaptflexiblytoachangingreality

•  Tomi+gaterisksandcapitalizeonopportuni+es

•  Toremainfocusedonoutcomes

•  Tomaintaincoherence

Classical Planning (simplified):

•  Assumes slowly changing future which can be predicted

•  Relies on expert knowledge and quantitative modeling

•  Projects past and current trends into the future

•  Assumes linear progress (clear causality)

•  Emphasizes front-end analysis, mitigation of risks and mechanical planning

Classical Planning (problematized):

•  The world has gone VUCA: volatility, uncertainty, complexity & ambiguity reign supreme

•  Experts and models get it consistently wrong, knowledge is distributed in the system

•  Change, disruption, shocks are the new normal, and it comes from all over the place

•  The future is in the making (emerging)

“Planning doesn’t disappear: the

importance of long term visioning and

short term resilience and

improvisation is amplified”

Jake Dunagan, Institute For The Future

Enter Strategic Foresight

•  Foresight-driven understanding, strategy & execution

•  An actionable basis for adaptive strategic planning

•  A framework to cope with uncertainty while avoiding ‘shell-shock’ & ‘doing business as usual’

Applied Foresight:

•  On and over-the-horizon scanning, trend spotting

•  Exploring alternative futures

•  Developing alternative scenarios

•  Testing the relevance and resilience of existing strategies

•  Designing adaptive (‘what-if’) policies

•  Constantly keeping a finger on the pulse

•  Foresight è Insight è Action

data / modeling

consultations / research

• uncertainty

•  risks

•  challenges

• wild cards

• opportunities

preferred future

1.  Visioning Processes (national development strategies,

organisational vision, the World We Want, etc.)

2.  Strategic Management and Policy Coherence (The Future

of…, policy coordination, whole-of-government, etc.)

3.  Adaptive and Resilient Planning (scenario planning,

backcasting, stress testing, etc.)

4.  Public Service Innovation (creative means to explore the

interaction of key trends in alternative futures)

4 Applications of foresight

Examples of Government Foresight Units

•  MyForesight – Malaysia"

•  Policy Horizons Canada – Canada"

•  Government Foresight Network – Finland"

•  UK Foresight Office – UK"

•  Federal Ministry of Education and Research ‘Futur’ Project - Germany"

Resilient Planning for SIDS in the Pacific

Towards an Innovative Civil Service in Mauritius"

Empowered Futures Initiative (EFI)"

•  GCPSE will soon launch the Empowered Futures Initiative"

•  Aim of the Initiative is to assist public service organizations with the introduction of foresight"

•  Initiative will collect relevant evidence, facilitate foresightXchanges and strengthen foresight capacity"

•  Initiative will bring together foresight partners from around the world"

A bit of Foresight

“In 2030, there will be a guaranteed, safe and healthy path through quality education for a girl from a disadvantaged background – with

real prospects for dignified employment afterwards”

If you want to know more

Visit us online at www.undp.org/publicservice

on Facebook (GCPSE)

Drop us an email at petrus.vandepol@undp.org