Presentation

1.  Sustainable Future Institute 2.  Context - Korea/New Zealand 3.  Three Sights 4.  Creating Intelligent Countries 5.  Government Foresight in New Zealand 6.  Past Initiatives 7.  StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future 8.  Lessons Learnt

1. The Sustainable Future Institute www.sustainablefuture.info    A privately-funded non-partisan think tank working for the public good, contributing strategic foresight through evidence-based research and policy analysis.

 

 (c) Future Thinkers  

Online Video Interviews: World Futures 

(July 2008 and July 2009)  

Online Video Conversa?ons: Ideas about the Future            (December 

2008)  

James Duncan Reference Library (October 2009) 

 A History of Future Thinkers in New 

Zealand 

Project 2058 – The Method

Part1:

ResearchandAnalysis

PartII:

Scenarios

PartIII:

Strategy

(d) State of New Zealand’s Future 

The Future of Infrastructure in New Zealand* 

  Report 9 Government‐funded Science Under the Microscope (2011) 

Report 10 The State of New Zealand’s Resources* 

   The Future of Food and Agriculture* 

The State Sector: Looking Forward* 

(b) NaGonal Assets Report 1 A Na?onal Sustainable Development Strategy (2007) 

(a) Government

Report 2 New Zealand Central Government Strategies

(2007)

Report 3 Supporting Local Government (2008)

Report 4 Institutions for Sustainable Development (2008)

Report 5 The Common Elements of an NSDS (2008)

Na?onal Sustainable Development Strategy for New Zealand* 

 Report 6 Four Possible Futures for New Zealand in 2058 (2008) 

  Report 7 Exploring the Shared Goals of Māori (2010) 

   Report 8 Effec?ve Māori Representa?on 

in Parliament (2010) 

A History of Future Thinkers in New Zealand (2011) 

Online Video Interviews: World Futures 

(2008,2009 and 2010) 

Online Video Conversa?ons: Ideas about the Future 

(2008) 

James Duncan Reference Library (2009) 

(c) Ideas 

2. Context (i) Physical Analytics

South Korea  New Zealand 

Land Area (km²)  96,920  267,710 3 ?mes 

Coast (km²)  2,413  15, 134 6 ?mes 

Borders  North Korea  None 

Natural Resources 

coal   tungsten graphite 

molybdenum lead 

hydropower poten?al 

natural gas iron ore sand  

coal  ?mber 

hydropower gold 

limestone 

2. (ii) Man-made Analytics

South Korea  New Zealand  Year 

Popula?on  48, 988, 830  4, 291, 900 11 ?mes 

2011 

Fer?lity Rate  1.192  2.18  2008 

Unemployment Rate  3.2%  4.2%  2008 

Life Expectancy  79.4 years  80.2 years  2007 

Income inequality:  Gini co‐efficient (level) 

0.312  0.335  2005 

GDP per Capita  $27, 657  $27, 036  2008 

Gross domes?c expenditure on R+D 

3.210%  1.206% 1/3  

2008 

Source: (OECD, n.d.) 

New Zealand’s Exclusive Economic Zone    For every New Zealander •  1.30 km2 seabed

(0.006 Korean) (217 times)

•  0.06 km2 land

(0.002 Korean) (30 times)

Number of livestock by country per person

1.  Hindsight 2.  Insight 3.  Foresight

 3. Three Sights

Sovereignty 

SeSlement 

Rights, Roles, RepresentaGon  & ResponsibiliGes 

IdenGty 

Social JusGce 

Economic Reform 

Social Reform 

Hindsight  

Today, 3 billion made $2 or less per day. 

Fiky years later, the developed countries & China grow old – while Africa & India get younger. 

40:60 

60:40 

Insight and Foresight

Foresight

Probable future – Forecasting and prediction (Status Quo) Possible futures – Scenarios, risks and opportunities (Explorative) Preferred futures – Strategies, propelled by leadership (Visionary)

Foresight is foreknowledge (1900)

One Hundred Years Hence Although the public is wont to regard predic7ons with an amount of skep7cism…there is absolutely no doubt to reason the accuracy of the foreknowledge which comes from reading the past and the trend of current events. Progress cannot be denied….  

P J O’Regan, August 1900, New Zealand 

1.  Climate change and energy 

2.  Massive debt (AKA ‘The Great Correc?on’) 

3.  Water and food shortages/Environmental issues 

4.  Five simultaneous game‐changing tech revolu?ons, tele‐everything 

5.  Luddites/Individual destruc?ve power 6.  Robo?cs/Machine intelligence/

Employment 

7.  Humans merging with the machines NASA Chief ScienGst Dennis M. Bushnell  

 Foresight: Where are we going? (2011)

Wild Cards  Disasters – largest and most recent

The Future…

Snowden & Boone (2007). A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making. Harvard Business Review. 

Watch for Weak Signals 

Responses from Powerful counGes –  Self‐sufficient, heavily armed and a fortress mentality or –  Serious engagement with all the problems of the planet 

 Choices for Small counGes 

–  OpGon 1: Ignore –  OpGon 2: Become an intelligent country 

•  Adapt (monitor closely what is happening) •  Support global leadership (UN, WB, etc) •  Build alliances  and networks •  Try to shape (lead by example) 

  

  Assumption 1: Global Problems requires Global Solutions (GS) Assumption 2: GS requires Global Intelligence (GI) Assumption 3: GI = National Intelligence (NI) x 195 countries

Then the aim is to increase NI+

NI+ = (Hindsight x Insight x Foresight) population

4. How do we create intelligent countries?

Who are the Intelligent Countries?

1.  Statement of Long-term Fiscal Position 2.  Productivity Commission 3.  Welfare Working Group – ‘Future Liability Approach’ 4.  Futures Forum 5.  Government-funded Research 6.  Local Government Long-term Plans

 

5. Government Initiatives in 2011

6. Past Initiatives

Four-step Model for Planning Future-thinking Initiatives

7. StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future Workshop March 2011   Pre‐Workshop 

        Na?on Dates (220 events)         Workbook (Report 12)         Future Studies Course (Dr Peter Bishop) 

Workshop Part 1 – Seong the global context Part 2 – Where New Zealand is today Part 3 – Preparing strategy maps Part 4 – Presen?ng and judging strategy maps Part 5 – Three workstreams Part 6 – Presenta?ons  

 to Members of Parliament  Post‐Workshop              Strategy Map (Report 13) 

        Feedback (Working paper)         Reflec?ons by Par?cipants (e‐book) 

 Na?on Dates (440 events)  

WORKING PAPER: STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE PARTICIPANT FEEDBACK | 1

WORKING PAPER 2011/16

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Strategy Map for Brazil

… From previous slide – Strategy Map for Brazil

Survey society

Participants 10 groups X1 designer X1 college student

The Designers

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(i) Vision

(ii) Strategic Intent

(iii) Strategy Map

Resulting Themes

•  A place where talent wants to live •  Bi‐cultural and Mul?‐cultural New Zealand •  Youth need a voice •  3 year elec?on cycle is too short •  Cons?tu?onal Review (See www.EmpowernNZ.co.nz) 

•  Need for a strategy •  Degree of urgency •  Need for greater par?cipa?on 

 Work programme •  Secure funding critical •  Research question needs the right balance of focus and flexibility •  Ability to rewrite/update methodology •  Give yourself lots of time

•  Research data can be hard to find •  Analysis uses data to create information for strategic knowledge •  External review is time-consuming and •  Communication involves people

Report Writing •  Use designers to make your ideas come to life •  Mapping data – assurance v communication •  Provide a number of ways to commutate ideas Events •  Get the right people in the room •  What you do before the event is as important afterwards

 8. Lessons Learnt