Foresight General Concept & Methodology
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Transcript of Foresight General Concept & Methodology
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
RUSHDI ABDUL RAHIM [email protected]
FORESIGHT CONCEPT & METHODOLOGY
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The Governing Board ....provide advise on the strategic direction and focus areas of the institute
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
www.might.org.my
www.myforesight.my
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periodic publications
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
Introduction to Foresight & Futures
Foresight tools and methodology
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Introduction to Foresight & Futures
Foresight tools and methodology
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“However good our futures research may be, we shall never be able to escape from the ultimate dilemma that all our knowledge is about the past, and all our decision are about the future” IAN WILSON
“The only way to predict the future is to have power to shape
the future” ERIC HOFFER
“The present moment contains past and future. The secret of
transformation, is in the way we handle this very moment.”
NHAT HANH
“Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive a country road with no lights while looking out the back window” PETER DRUCKER
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foresight & futures thinking
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
future is not necessarily continuation of the past
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1 2 3
4 5
By 1967, London would be buried six
feet deep in horse dung!
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
predictions gone wrong
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“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, 1977 President, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp. (DEC)
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“Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” Lord Kelvin, 1895 British mathematician and physicist, President of the British Royal Society.
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“The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.” Sir William Preece, 1878 Chief Engineer, British Post Office,
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what is Foresight?
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“Foresight is a matter of studying the present, learning from the past and understanding the needs of the future”
Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad
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Learning of the past to ensure we avoid repeating
mistakes
USING THE PAST & FUTURE TO DECIDE ON
TODAY
Understanding & exploring futures to mitigate risk and maximizing
opportunities
Certain. Things have happened • Can’t change • Historical data
Moving. Constant changes • Respond & adapt • Shape & influence
Uncertain. Have not happened • Shape & influence
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…Foresight prepares us to meet the need and
opportunities of the future... It is not planning
but merely a step in planning…
Joseph Coates
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The terms ‘Foresight’ and ‘Futures’ are largely interchangeable, referring to:
‘systematic and purposeful processes of future-oriented deliberation between participants with a view to identifying actions to be taken, or
goals to be pursued for better future outcomes.’
FORESIGHT
Participation Stakeholders Engagement
Action Policy-making
& Planning
Anticipation Prospective
& Futures
Adopted from: R. Popper
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objectives of Foresight
Direction setting: provides direction and focus for national strategic planning and other strategy to realize the objectives of Vision or Goals
Determining priorities: perhaps the most important aim of Foresight and the driving force in most of the documented country exercises against a background of resources restraint and increasing demands
Anticipatory intelligence: identification of emerging trends with major implications for future policy making
Consensus generation: promotion of greater agreement among stakeholders on identified needs or opportunities
Advocacy: promotion of policy decisions in line with preferences of specific stakeholders in the system
Communication and education: promotion of internal communication within the stakeholders community, promotion of external communications with users of policy and wider education of the general public, politicians and bureaucrats.
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Introduction to Foresight & Futures
Foresight tools and methodology
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the tools & methods
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Scenario Planning
Technology Prioritization
Online Survey
Bibliography Analysis
Patent Analysis
STEEP Analysis
Delphi
Expert Panels
Workshops & Focus Groups
choosing the right method
• To negate the relatively high level of cynicism of the stakeholders;
• To enable change of thinking and mind set;
• To inculcate and incorporate discipline and subjectivity. This includes receptiveness towards methods and systematic approaches of foresight;
• To ensure engagement of diverse and equal distribution of participants;
• The need to sustain continued interest in the foresight exercises by introducing creative and participatory approaches;
• Enabling use of multi tools environment
• The need to educate potential stakeholders on the benefits and potential impact of foresight;
Methods that were chosen signify the needs to cater its adoption to Malaysia’s case studies. Therefore the selection
and combination of methods are made to ensure the best outcome and participation of stakeholders in Malaysia. This
includes but not limited to the following:-
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generic Foresight process
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how we do it?
Data Collection & Analysis
Scenario Building
Identification & Recommendations
DIAGNOSIS
PROGNOSIS
PRESCRIPTION
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how we do it?
What are the objectives?
What Time Horizon are we looking at?
Building on existing resources and
materials
What is the cost?
Who are the stakeholders?
Stakeholders availability?
How much time do you have?
Matching skills & competencies…
Data Collection & Analysis
Scenario Building
Identification & Recommendations
DIAGNOSIS
PROGNOSIS
PRESCRIPTION
Foresight Scoping
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Scenarios Analysis
Scenarios Building
the process
List of Sector’s Drivers
Consolidation of data gathering - Sector
Social
Technology
Economy
Environment
Policy
Key Strategic Areas & Action
Plan
Defining criteria Feasibility
Signposts
List of Candidates
Opportunities & Threats
Delivery, Utilization &
Feedback
Intelligence Processes
List of key stakeholders
Influence & relationship
Participation Scale
Review of Listing
Scenario Writing
Direction of Change
Drivers Networks Analysis
Impact – Uncertainty
Analysis
Ma
in P
roce
ss
List of Drivers of Change
Preliminary Listing Environmental Scanning
Need Analysis
Primary Research
Analysis
Review of Scenario
Products & Services
Defining criteria Attractiveness
Evaluation of Strategy & Action
plan
Review of list of Candidates
Data Intelligence & Horizon Scanning
Sta
ge
s
1 3 4 5 6 2
Drivers Formulation
Stakeholders’ Mapping
Recommendation
Secondary Research
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Diagnosis
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• Scoping
• Weak signals
• Mega trends
• Drivers of change
• Plausible scenarios
• Future niche
• Future priority areas
• Strategies
horizon scanning
Source: myForesight® analytics
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myForesight® trend scanning framework utilizes the STEEP approach that is also known by a number of different acronyms; PEST, STEEP, STEEPV, PESTELV & SEPTED but generally they all follow a similar framework and identify similar issues. The analysis is very useful as it offers a wide ranging framework from which to identify main drivers and build scenarios
looking at all perspectives
STEEPV analysis
SOCIAL FORCES ECONOMIC
FORCES
POLITICAL FORCES
ENVIRONMENT FORCES
TECHNOLOGY FORCES
VALUE FORCES
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lenses
Source: myForesight® analytics
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diagnosis ecosystem
Source: myForesight® analytics
Political Economic Social Technological Environment Legal Value
External Factors Trends, Issues & Challenges
Internal Factors Trends, Issues & Challenges
Driver 1
Actor: Champion, sponsors & project team (overall
structure)
Participation & Target Groups: Stakeholders (Government, Industry, Academia,
Associations, NGO, Clients, regulators etc.
Driver n Pu
rpo
se
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MEGA TRENDS
impact
relativity risk, threat & opportunities
long term
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
“Technology will have ingrained itself into
every sphere of human activity”
“by 2015, 1 trillion devices will be
interconnected, exchanging
information”
“Technology intrusiveness, human
literally live in technology”
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“Technology will understand data they’re
processing”
“Machines will increasingly be able to work autonomously”
“Technology will be replacing routine & unsociable work ”
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“Technology will be relating to humans in
human like ways”
“Humans will form emotional attachments
to technology”
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“Accelerating rate of technology convergence &
application”
“Development of new and novel applications
& usage”
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Prognosis
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……is a story with plausible cause and effect links that connects a future condition with the present, while illustrating key decisions, events, and consequences throughout the
narrative.
What is a Scenario? – Foresight Perspective
not predictions or forecasts
stories that describe how things might be in the future
based on an analysis of change drivers
simplify some of the apparent complexity in the world
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Typical Scenarios
..is a statement about the plausible state of an observation at a certain point in the future
Present
Image of the Future
Scenario α
Directions of Change, X
Directions of Change, Y
Directions of Change, Z
Scenario β
Scenario Ω
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Type of Scenarios
There are multiple type of scenarios… 2x2 …archetype… multi drivers
BEST CASE
WORST CASE
BUSINESS AS USUAL
WILD CARD
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• Drivers are the key forces in the macro-environment that underpin important trends and issues.
• Some of these forces are largely predetermined (e.g. often demographics), whilst some are highly uncertain (e.g. oil and gas prices).
• When constructing scenarios, it is very useful to know what is inevitable and necessary and what is unpredictable and a matter of choice.
Understanding drivers of change
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The South African Mont Fleur project:
• Mont Fleur was intended to influence the future of South Africa through the development of several scenarios about how things might unfold over the coming decades.
• The project took place right in the middle of a complex period of many kinds of negotiations about how to make the transition away from apartheid.
• The Mont Fleur work was done by a team of leaders drawn from organizations that ranged across the political map: community activists, conservative politicians, ANC officials, trade unionists, academics, establishment economists, top corporate executives.
Adam Kahane, Generon
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The 4 scenarios of Mont Fleur
• Ostrich
was a story of the white government believing that it could avoid a negotiated settlement with the black majority, burying its head in the sand, and thereby making make matters worse in the end
• Lame Duck
told the story of a prolonged transition where the new government is hobbled by compromises built into the constitution and, because “it purports to respond to all but satisfies none”, it doesn’t address the country’s problems
• Icarus
described a strong black majority government coming to power on a wave of popular support and embarking on a huge, unsustainable public spending spree that crashes the economy
• Flight of the Flamingos
was a story about how the new government could avoid the pitfalls of the first three scenarios and gradually rebuild a successful economy
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Prescriptions
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from scenarios to strategies
Actions that are needed whatever the scenario
(Imperatives)
Actions needed to reach a preferred future outcome
(Preferences)
Recommendations for future strategy
& action
Strategic implications
Drivers of change
Issues & trends
Scenarios
Involves assessing actions against capabilities and competencies, identifying opportunities and
reviewing risks
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analysing the scenarios
• Once we have defined our scenarios, we need to ask:
How might we know if this scenario is emerging?
What would be leading indicators (sign posts)?
What should we be monitoring?
• Undertake comparison of the different scenario
• Are there issues, strategies, etc. that apply across all or many of these?
• Usually the workshop will end with some examination/ prioritisation of actions
“Strategy" is the art of determining how you'll "win" in business and life.
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Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Strategy element 1
Strategy element 2
Strategy element n
testing the strategy
To test out the strategic responses that we just developed for our own scenarios, in other groups’ scenarios. This will give us a sense of how robust (or not) our responses are.
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Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Scenario 3
• Identifying possible actions through break-out groups (per scenario) or via other approaches – Who should do WHAT, WHEN, with what targets & indicators
• Relating actions to scenarios – How do various projects look in the different scenario
• Prioritising & Selecting Activities – Which to do now, later, keep on back burner, how much resource (or what kind) to invest etc.
• What does this mean for ongoing planning and strategizing: intra-and inter-organisation dimensions
translating scenarios
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Analyze the scenarios (α, β & Ω) and suggest potential opportunities and threats potentially resulting from the scenarios
identifying future opportunities & threats /risks
Source: myForesight® analytics
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Each areas/strategy/items are ranked according to:-
identification & prioritization
Feasibility (Readiness)
• Maturity & acceptance, time horizon of impact;
• Application potential & diffusion;
• Resources & infrastructure.
Attractiveness (Socio Economic)
• Economic & industrial impact;
• Competition;
• Social impact;
• Knowledge generation;
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prioritisation diagram
Likelihood to happen
Imp
act
Score of 4 or higher Higher priority field with strong attractiveness & feasibility potential
Medium Score ( 3 to 4) Field that could be selected after more careful & detail cost benefit analysis
Score under 2 points Limited attractiveness & feasibility potential
Lim
ited
Su
bst
anti
al
Seri
ou
s V
ery
Seri
ou
s C
atas
tro
ph
ic
Highly unlikely
Unlikely Possible Likely Highly likely
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key players in OTEC technology
35
18
37
27 34
18
6
6
6
6
6
8
4
5
3
5 5
5 5
Platform Mooring Pump Turbine Heat exchanger Cold Water Pipe
Patent distribution based on technology areas
LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION, US THE ABELL FOUNDATION, INC., US
OTEC DEVELOPMENTS, US PRUEITT MELVIN L, US
United States Department of Energy,US
Top five (5) companies patents filed distribution based on technology areas from 2009 to 2014 . Lockheed Martin corporation and Abell Foundation INC. are found to be the main contributors in OTEC research based on patents filed in six technology areas.
Source: myForesight® analytics
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technology focus area
Technology Areas: i. Improvement of existing platforms, ii. Platform mooring iii. Pumps iv. Turbines v. Heat exchanger vi. Cold water pipes
15
8
28
21 22
7
15 14
50
30 27
5
39
28
49
39
33
11
26
8
31
27
23
11
24
17
39
35 32
13
18
9
25
13 16
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
platform
platform Mooring
pump
turbine
heat exchanger
cold water pipe
Number of patent registered (2009-2014) on OTEC Technology; Pumps, turbines and heat exchanger technologies are the areas that most focus from 2009 to 2014
Source: myForesight® analytics
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
bibliography analysis
Source: myForesight® analytics
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
Foresight… Mindset vs Method
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
Politically correct & sensitivity
Stakeholders engagement - organisations vs. individuals
Schedule and timeline – holidays, ad hoc meetings
Foresight vs. traditional strategic management
planning Adapting Foresight to non-
academic practice Fast result, immature
analysis ?
Challenges in Foresight activities
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
…based on experiences in implementing the case studies, there are several critical components that would enhance effectiveness in transforming policy
planning into actions as follows:
• Intermediaries – there is a need for a strong intermediary role especially involving cross-ministerial and multi-sectoral domains as well as capable of performing strategic thinking on top of secretariat works.
• Align to the national agenda – there is a need to integrate and synergy with the national agenda (big picture)
• Champions – there is a need to identify and get buy-in at the early stage from relevant stakeholders which will involve actively in the implementation stage
• Strategic Platforms – leverage and maximise the use of available means such as strategic partnership, offsets program, national council, to name a few.
Key Enablers – Foresight to Policy Making & Implementation
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.
the end
RUSHDI ABDUL RAHIM