Forecasting U.S. Demand for Uncoated Free Sheet
-
Upload
bronwen-lewis -
Category
Documents
-
view
28 -
download
3
description
Transcript of Forecasting U.S. Demand for Uncoated Free Sheet
Forecasting U.S. Demand for Uncoated Free Sheet
Memphis Area SAS User’s GroupSeptember 30, 2004
Tom NunnikhovenInternational Paper, Memphis
Business Modeling & Optimization Services(901)419-7564
Topics
• Uncoated Free Sheet – What it is• Historical Demand • Industry Segments• Consumption Patterns and Forecasts by Segment• UFS Forecast for 2003 and Results
US TOTAL UFS PAPER DOMESTIC SUPPLY THE 70s, THE 80s, AND THE 90s
' 'P&CP UFS DEMAND STUDY. PROGRAM: US33.SAS.
M T
ON
S
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
'
72Q1 77Q1 82Q1 87Q1 92Q1 97Q1 02Q1 07Q1
US TOTAL UFS PAPER DOMESTIC SUPPLY WE REACH THE NEW MILLENIUM...
' 'P&CP UFS DEMAND STUDY. PROGRAM: US33.SAS.
M T
on
s
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
'
72Q1 77Q1 82Q1 87Q1 92Q1 97Q1 02Q1 07Q1
UFS Domestic Supply Average Rates of Change
Year Annual Change
1972 – 1979 +3.6%
1981- 1989 +4.0%
1990 – 1999 +2.1%
2000 -1.4%
2001 -7.4%
2002 -1.2%
2003 ???
Uncoated Free Sheet Industry Segments
• Printing• Envelope• Business• Forms• Tablet• Other
Prospects Differ Greatly Between Segments …
-
TABLET PAPER DOMESTIC SUPPLY
' 'P&CP UFS DEMAND STUDY. PROGRAM: US33.SAS.
M T
on
s
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
'
72Q1 77Q1 82Q1 87Q1 92Q1 97Q1 02Q1 07Q1
BUSINESS PAPER DOMESTIC SUPPLY
' 'P&CP UFS DEMAND STUDY. PROGRAM: US33.SAS.
M T
on
s
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
'
72Q1 77Q1 82Q1 87Q1 92Q1 97Q1 02Q1 07Q1
Segments Have Consistent Relationships with U.S. Economic Metrics
TABLET PAPER CONSUMPTION RATE
' 'P&CP UFS DEMAND STUDY. PROGRAM: US33.SAS.
To
ns / $
Billio
n G
DP
, 1996$
0
25
50
75
100
125
'
72Q1 77Q1 82Q1 87Q1 92Q1 97Q1 02Q1 07Q1
BUSINESS PAPER CONSUMPTION RATE
' 'P&CP UFS DEMAND STUDY. PROGRAM: US33.SAS.
To
ns
/ M E
mp
loye
es
0
5
10
15
20
25
'
72Q1 77Q1 82Q1 87Q1 92Q1 97Q1 02Q1 07Q1
Method for Forecasting UFS
• For each segment– Model consumption rate per unit– Project the U.S. economy component– Project the segment demand based on this
BUSINESS PAPER CONSUMPTION RATE TONS PER 1000 EMPLOYEES, HIGH PAPER-CONSUMING OCCUPATIONS
TRENDLINE: -3.13 + 0.63 * YEAR, R-SQUARED = 0.97P&CP UFS DEMAND STUDY. PROGRAM: US33.SAS.
TO
NS
/ M
EM
PL
OY
EE
S
0
5
10
15
20
25
'
72Q1 77Q1 82Q1 87Q1 92Q1 97Q1 02Q1 07Q1
Employment, High-Paper Consuming Occupations, Seasonally Adjusted (Manufacturing; Finance, Real Estate, Insurance; Government, Health, Education)
_______ Actual. ------- DRI (Global Insights) ForecastP&CP UFS DEMAND STUDY. PROGRAM: US33.SAS.
M E
mp
loye
es
40000
42500
45000
47500
50000
52500
55000
57500
60000
62500
65000
'
72Q1 77Q1 82Q1 87Q1 92Q1 97Q1 02Q1 07Q1
UFS Business Paper Domestic Supply Fitted to Employment in High Paper Consuming Occupations
_______ Actual. ----- Projected from Trend in Tons / M EmployeesP&CP UFS DEMAND STUDY. PROGRAM: US33.SAS.
M T
on
s
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
'
72Q1 77Q1 82Q1 87Q1 92Q1 97Q1 02Q1 07Q1
Total UFS Domestic Supply is Projected from the Six Segments Combined
US TOTAL UFS PAPER DOMESTIC SUPPLY
_______ Actual. ----- FITTED AND FORECASTP&CP UFS DEMAND STUDY. PROGRAM: US33.SAS.
M T
ON
S
1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2250 2500 2750 3000 3250 3500 3750 4000
'
72Q1 77Q1 82Q1 87Q1 92Q1 97Q1 02Q1 07Q1
Results
• Change in UFS Domestic Supply, 2003
– Projected: -1.1%
– Actual: -0.9%