Forecasting TOP 3 Cancer Rate in each gender for New ......105078510 Tseng Yen-Ju ‧ 105078517 Lai...
Transcript of Forecasting TOP 3 Cancer Rate in each gender for New ......105078510 Tseng Yen-Ju ‧ 105078517 Lai...
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Forecasting TOP 3 Cancer Rate in each gender for New Insurance Products Design
104064538 Kuan-Yu Chen‧104078504 I-Chun Chao‧104078701 Edward Song105078510 Tseng Yen-Ju ‧105078517 Lai Yi-Wei
Team 4
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Forecasting GoalWe would like to provide Insurance Companies the
forecasts of TOP 3 cancer crude rate each gender for 4 years.
The GoalsBusiness GoalThe forecasts can be used for designing better
insurance products which can really help patients to gain compensation they deserved.
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Why we interest in this Topic:Cancer Insurance Dilemma▹ Medicare doesn’t compensate that much because of the strict
compensation policy.▹ The cancer insurance products come out, but patients’ pain points still
remain.▹ Example A woman with breast cancer. (True Story!)
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Compensation the insurance company they will give you
Be in hospital 1,000/day
If you die 300,000
The fee have to be use in the whole treatment
surgery 140,000
Be in hospital 2,000/day
Injection 6,400/month
Big Gap
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Our ProcessData
Source
• Cancer Crude Rate• 1979~2013• From ministry of heath and welfare
AddExternal
Info
• Try different relevant external data to models
• Exclude at last
Try models&
evaluation
• Try 5 models(naïve, Holt, arima, netural network, regresion, ensemble)
• Matrix generation
GenerateForecasts &
intervals
• Rolling-forward• Plot histograms• Compute intervals• Generate Forecasts• Ensemble vs. Best one
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Male Colorectal Cancer Top 1 in 6 series
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Other Series- Male2nd Liver & 3rd Lung
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Other Series- Female1st Breast, 2nd Colorectal & 3rd Lung
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Recommendation
▹Top 3 Cancer forecasts as Prototypes – Freemium Ensemble ( one time ) vs. Best Model ( premium ) ▹Cancer Portfolio Insurance Design
Customers’ risk ↓ & Compensation Receive ↑ Insurance Company can make profit in long run
▹Marketing Strategy & CSR Campaign (CSR- Corporate Social Responsibility)