Forecasting Sustainable Urbanization:

Inception and Data Collection Workshop

Support For Sustainable Infrastructure Planning In Cities

20-21 February 2020Plaza Hotel

Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

Opening and project introductionSession 1

Project introduction

1. Why focus on resource use?

2. Why focus on cities?

3. Why use forecasting?

United Nations ESCAP− United Nations Economic and Social

Commission for Asia and the Pacific− UN’s regional hub− 53 member States, 9 associate members− HQ in Bangkok, 4 subregional offices (Almaty)− ESCAP promotes cooperation among

countries to achieve inclusive and sustainable development:• Policy dialogues, regional cooperation,

intergovernmental platforms• Results-oriented projects, technical assistance,

capacity building• Research and analysis, knowledge sharing

− Interdisciplinary expertise covering urban, environment, energy, disaster risk reduction, trade, macroeconomics etc.

Incheon

BangkokESCAP HQ

Chiba

Beijing

Bogor

New Delhi

ESCAP Headquarters, Regional or sub-regional offices

Shanghai

Guangzhou

Wuhan

Mumbai Hyderabad

Karachi

Vladivostok

Osaka

Sapporo

Anchorage

Sydney

Melbourne

Perth

Surabaya

Auckland

Istanbul

Canberra

Wellington

Port Moresby

Nouméa

Pago Pago

Port-Vila

Apia

AlofiAvarua

Funafuti

Majuro

Papeete

Tarawa

Yaren

JakartaDili

Kuala LumpurBandar Seri Begawan

Hanoi

Manila

Vientiane

Sri Jayewardenepura Kotte

Seoul Tokyo

Ulaanbaatar

Male

Colombo

Baku

Moscow

Ashgabat

Astana

Ankara

T'bilisi Bishkek

Dushanbe

Tashkent

Yerevan

Suva

Nuku'alofa

Koror

Hagåtña

Palikir

Thim

phu

Kathm

andu

Phnom Penh

Honiara

Tehran-Kabul-

--

-Isla

mabad

Dhaka

P'yongyang

SaipanNaypyitaw

BangkokESCAP HQ

Almaty

Suva

Bogor

BeijingIncheon

Chiba

New Delhi

Tuamotu Archipelago Society Is. Tubuai Is. Pitcairn

Phoenix Is.

Tokelau Is.

Gilbert Is.

Hawaiian Islands

Northern Line Islands

Southern Line Islands

Marquesas Is.

Honshu

KyushuShikoku

Hokkaido

Sakhalin

Taiwan

Luzon

Mindanao

Kuril Is.

Ryuky

u Is.

A leut ian Is lands

Tasmania

South Island

North Island

Sumatera

Java

Sulawesi

Hong Kong, China NorthernMarianaIslands

Guam

New Caledonia

AmericanSamoa

Cook Is lands

FrenchPolynesia

Niue

Macao, China

FIJI

SAMOA

SINGAPORE

TUVALU

NAURU

MARSHALLISLANDS

SOLOMONISLANDS

PAPUANEW GUINEA

A U S T R A L I A

NEW ZEALAND

VANUATU

TONGA

K I R I B A T I

FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA

PHILIPPINES

MALAYSIA

I N D O N E S I A

C H I N A

I N D I A

K A Z A K H S T A N

SRI LANKA

VIET NAM

BRUNEIDARUSSALAM

MYANMAR

THAILAND

NEPAL

TURKEY

ISLAMIC REPUBLICOF

IRANBHUTAN

BANGLADESH

MALDIVES

TAJIKISTANKYRGYZSTAN

AZERBAIJAN

PAKISTAN AFGHANISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

Jammuand

Kashmir

CAMBODIA

LAOP.D.R.

R U S S I A N F E D E R A T I O N

MONGOLIA

JAPANREP. OFKOREA

DEM. PEOPLE'SREP. OF KOREA

UNITED STATESOF AMERICA

PALAU

ARM

ENIA

GEORGIA

TIMOR-LESTE Arafura Sea

Bay ofBengalArabian Sea

Gulf of Oman

Black SeaCaspian

Sea

N O R T H P A C I F I C O C E A N

S O U T H P A C I F I C O C E A NT a s m a n S e a

C o r a l S e a

Celebes Sea

South China

Sea

PhilippineSea

East China

Sea

Sea of OkhotskB e r i n g S e a

MediterraneanSea

Persian Gulf

Red Sea

120° 135° 150° 165° 180° 165° 150° 135°

30° 45° 60° 75° 90° 105° 120° 135° 150° 165° 180° 165° 150° 135°

45°

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Equator

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSIONFOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

0

0 1000 2000 3000 km

1000 2000 mi

The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

Dotted line represents approximately the Line of Controlin Jammu and Kashmir agreed upon by India and Pakistan.The final status of Jammu and Kashmir has not yet beenagreed upon by the parties.

AfghanistanArmeniaAustraliaAzerbaijanBangladeshBhutanBrunei DarussalamCambodiaChinaDemocratic People's Republic of KoreaFederated States of MicronesiaFijiFranceGeorgiaIndiaIndonesiaIslamic Republic of IranJapanKazakhstanKiribatiKyrgyzstanLao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMaldivesMarshall IslandsMongoliaMyanmar

NauruNepalNetherlandsNew ZealandPakistanPalauPapua New GuineaPhilippinesRepublic of KoreaRussian FederationSamoaSingaporeSolomon IslandsSri LankaTajikistanThailandTimor-LesteTongaTurkeyTurkmenistanTuvaluUnited KingdomUnited States of AmericaUzbekistanVanuatuViet Nam

American SamoaCommonwealth of the Northern Mariana IslandsCook IslandsFrench Polynesia

GuamHong Kong, ChinaMacao, ChinaNew CaledoniaNiue

Members:

Associate members:

Map No. 3974 Rev. 18 UNITED NATIONS August 2014

Department of Field SupportCartographic Section

Project aim−To support the implementation of resource efficient and

environmentally friendly planning policies for sustainable cities−3 project cities:• Bishkek in Kyrgyzstan• Dushanbe in Tajikistan• Xiamen city in China

−Why did we identify Bishkek to join this project?• High resource intensities in Kyrgyzstan

Project implementation in Bishkek

1) collect data on urbanization, resource flows, and environmental trends in Bishkek

2) apply a forecasting tool to better understand future impacts of urban growth

3) develop policy pathways based on forecasted resource efficiency scenarios to plan sustainable infrastructure and achieve city targets

4) disseminate the lessons learned and the forecasting tool throughout the Asia-Pacific region, spotlighting the experience in Bishkek

Objectives of the workshop1. To broaden understanding of the relationship between urbanization

and resource consumption, and to review the policy environment of urbanization, resource flows, and environmental trends in Bishkek;

2. To identify data to support a baseline analysis and projections for resource use and intensities in Bishkek based on population and GDP estimates to 2025 and 2030, and develop a project plan and establish a Working Group to support the project’s implementation in Bishkek; and

3. To review challenges in the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and explore how to organize and finance urban development that is sustainable and socially inclusive.

1. Why focus on resource use?

Historic model of development

−Historic models of development focused on economic growth

−Assumption was that economic growth would naturally lead to social development and poverty reduction

Sustainable development “Sustainable development meets the needs of the present

without compromising the ability of future generations to

meet their own needs”Brundtland Report, 1987

Resource Efficiency

Source: World Green Economy Organization (WGEO) & ESCAP

Measuring resource efficiency

Resource intensity

Resource useEconomic output (GDP)

=

−The lower the resource intensity, the better

−A decrease in resource intensity over time means you are becoming more resource efficient

Population of Bishkek

0.77 0.80 0.840.94

1.041.15

1.281.43

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Mill

ions

Source: World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision

Bishkek gross regional product (GRP) at current prices

137,212152,867 158,635

180,880200,906

230,007

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ion

som

s

Source: http://stat.kg

Material intensity (DMC per GDP)

7.8

2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Kg p

er 1

USD

(201

0) G

DP

Kyrgyzstan North and Central Asia Asia-Pacific

Source: ESCAP Online Statistical Database

Material intensity

Kyrgyzstan Asia-Pacific average

Source: World Green Economy Organization (WGEO) & ESCAP

Resource decouplingUsing fewer resources (e.g. materials, water, energy, land) to maintain economic growth

+

–

future

GDPresource use

relative decoupling

absolute decoupling

sufficient absolute

decoupling

today

planetary boundaries

Example of resource decoupling: CO2 emissions

In 2019, CO2 emissions were unchanged, but the world economy grew by 2.9%

= relative decoupling

Source: IEA

Example of resource decoupling: material use

Source: UNEP (2013). City-Level Decoupling

Impact decouplingUsing resources wisely over their lifetime to reduce environmental impacts

Source: UNEP (2013). City-Level Decoupling

Example of impact decoupling: air pollution

Source: UNEP (2013). City-Level Decoupling

2. Why focus on cities?

Resource use in cities

−Cities are the powerhouses of economic growth, with 80% of global GDP being produced within them

−But cities also account for most of the world’s resource use, e.g.: • 60-80% of global energy consumption

• 75% of carbon emissions

Material consumption in cities−Cities account for about 60%

of total consumption of raw materials (including sand, gravel, iron ore, coal and wood)

−Material use is accelerating:• China used more cement

between 2011-2013 than the USA used during the whole 20th century

Source: IRP (2018). The Weight of Cities

Waste generation in cities

−The world's cities generate 2.01 billion tonnes of municipal solid waste annually• at least 1/3 not managed in an

environmentally safe manner

−This is expected to grow to 3.40 billion tonnes by 2050

Water resource use in cities− Increasing groundwater stress with unsustainable withdrawals

of freshwater• 29/48 countries were “water insecure” in Asia in 2016

−Freshwater sources in Asia have been already over-extracted and this situation will be worsened by increased urbanization, population growth, food production and climate change

−There is insufficient infrastructure to meet demand for domestic water, manufacturing, and thermal electricity generation• By 2050, 3.4 billion Asians could suffer from water stress

Land use and urban sprawl

Bishkek: 1984 vs 2018

Source: Google Timelapse

Asia-Pacific is rapidly urbanizing

Source: ESCAP, 2019, The Future of Asian & Pacific Cities

A moment of opportunity for cities−decisions made now will have long-term impacts, and Asia-Pacific

cities have an opportunity to set themselves on more sustainable and inclusive trajectories

−most urban infrastructure investments, especially environmental ones, are capital intensive and long-term

−poor investment choices can create a lock-in effect and increase the challenge to establish sustainable development and resource-efficient trajectories

−using resources more efficiently saves municipalities money• e.g. reducing waste management and water treatment costs

Cities can drive sustainable development

Therefore, the decisions and actions required to drive society towards more sustainable patterns of production and consumption will have to be made, to a large extent, in the world’s cities

3. Why use forecasting?

Why use forecasting?− Planning

• Develop scenarios

• Translate targets for efficiencies in resource use into policy actions

• Prioritize actions and investments – potential cost savings

− Strengthen the evidence base• Data-informed decision-making

• Leverage political support

• Leverage financial resources

− Validate existing initiatives

Forecasting tool

a) User inputs historic data and projections for population growth and economic growth

b) User inputs historic data on resource use across 6 resource trends:i. material useii. solid waste generationiii. energy consumptioniv. greenhouse gas emissionsv. water consumptionvi. land use

c) Business-as-usual scenario through to 2030 generated and visualized

1. Business-as-usual scenario

2. Alternative scenarios forecasteda) User selects from a list of policy alternatives and technical

solutions to forecast scenarios with altered resource intensities

b) Scenarios through to 2030 generated and visualized

c) Policy pathways are developed to support the achievement of Bishkek’s existing plans and targets

Therefore, the tool will enable you to ‘reverse plan’ – to translate city targets into policies and infrastructure planning

Examples of potential solutions to be featured in the forecasting tool−Solid waste: incentives for waste segregation at source;

ensuring adequate waste collection infrastructure is in place for segregated waste

−Energy: green building standards; replacing street lighting with LED lights

−Water: treating wastewater from public buildings on-site for re-use; maintenance of water delivery systems to repair leaks and reduce water losses; capturing rainwater to replenish aquifers

Resource Efficiency Simulation