Forecasting process: Severe Weather. Early warning Strive to ensure that every person or...
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![Page 1: Forecasting process: Severe Weather. Early warning Strive to ensure that every person or organization at risk 1. Receives the information 2. Understands.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5516983a550346f0208b4958/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Forecasting process: Severe Weather
![Page 2: Forecasting process: Severe Weather. Early warning Strive to ensure that every person or organization at risk 1. Receives the information 2. Understands.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062511/5516983a550346f0208b4958/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Early warning
Strive to ensure that every person or organization at risk1. Receives the information 2. Understands the information3. BELIEVES the information4. Personalizes the risk5. Make correct decisions6. Respond in a timely manner
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Early warning
Effective early warning should be:• Short, concise, understandable and actionable
• What, where, when, why, how to respond
Should be presented in several different formats – text-graphics-color coded categories-audio; should include specific actions for people to take in response to the event.
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Process
Identifying Severe Weather
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UKMO Model
5-7 Day Lead time
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NOAA Model
5-7 Day Lead time
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Unified Model
24 Hour fine scale lead time
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Web-based sources: QuickScat
5-7 Days: Issue an Advisory
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Keith Moir – Meteorologist – Cape Town Weather Office
>100mm in 24hour
24 Hour pictorial view of upcoming Severe weather
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Process: Current
Issuing and disseminating Warning
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Desktop
Warning
Distribution list
Issuing of Warning
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Posted on the Internet
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Television
Radio: KFM, Cape Talk, Tygerberg, CCFM, Voice of the Cape and many
others
Newspaper: Burger, Cape Times, Son, Argus, Local newspapers
Telephone: Recorded message- Vodacom Service
Telephone: Direct to Forecaster
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Process: Current
Monitoring and Amending warnings
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Keith Moir – Meteorologist – Cape Town Weather Office
Extra Tropical
Cyclone - Gamede
Old Tropical Cyclone -
Favio
Cold Front
Very Cold Air
Mass
Satellite images
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Thunderstorm
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Thunderstorm
Fog-Aviation Danger
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Thunderstorm
Fog-Aviation Danger
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High Resolution
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Super impose RADAR and Lightning Detection
LightningDetection
strikes
Cape TownWeatherRADAR
De AarWeatherRADAR
Radar
Lightning detection
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Severe Bottom storm
High likelihood of large hail
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Analysis of Routine observations
Surface
Upper air
Feedback from Disaster Managers and affected people
Warning Updates issued regularly until threat has passed
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Other Tools
Webcams
Independent Weather stations
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Process: Current
After Event
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Keith Moir – Meteorologist – Cape Town Weather Office
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Keith Moir – Meteorologist – Cape Town Weather Office
Any follow-up weather
Rescue mission conditions
Post-impact assessment: Meteorological Aspects
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New Severe Weather Alert System
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New Severe Weather Alert System
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New Severe Weather Alert System
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New Severe Weather Alert System
Way Forward:1. Re-define warning
criteria in conjunction with Disaster Management structures.
2. Educate People-Risks, Adequate Preparedness,
3. Keep abreast with Modern Technology- Dissemination of warnings
4. Keep abreast with advancements in Meteorology-, Climatology research
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South African Flash Flood Guidance System
Delineation of River Basins
Will Be Discussed Next
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Thank You For Your Time
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http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a2/Mountaineers_in_High_Tatry_mountains_winter.jpg
www.capetown.dj/people/people.html
http://www.jokesy.com/images/old-lady-senior-citizens-jokes1.jpg
http://happytrailsboardingkennel.com/sitebuilder/images/sick_puppy-600x319.jpg
http://weathersavvy.com/windysnow_OPT.jpg
http://ed101.bu.edu/StudentDoc/Archives/ED101fa06/mattwall/Weather%20Pictures/thunderstorm.jpg
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/2271578
http://www.iopara.ca/research.html