Forecasting NOAA’s

Future

Forecasting NOAA’s

Future

Brigadier General John J. Kelly Jr., (USAF, Ret.)Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & AtmosphereAMS Corporate ForumMarch 9, 2006

Brigadier General John J. Kelly Jr., (USAF, Ret.)Deputy Under Secretary for Oceans & AtmosphereAMS Corporate ForumMarch 9, 2006

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Menu

Who Cares about Earth Observations?

GEOSS Update Near Term Opportunities IOOS Status of NOAA Satellite Systems

NOAA Budget Outlook

Partnerships

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Who cares about Earth Observation

Data?We Must Promote Societal Benefits of Integrated Observations

courtesy Environmental AgencyAugust 31, 2005 provided by NOAA

Levee breakLevee break

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Important to NOAA’s Mission

Max Mayfield

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GEOSS & US GEOIntegrated Observations &

Data ManagementGEOSS

A director of the GEO Secretariat has been hired

We have a 2006 work plan at the international level

GEO-Netcast The U.S. agreed to move a

geostationary satellite to provide better environmental satellite coverage over South America.

US GEO

Plans are being developed for the six following areas for completion in early 2006

Air Quality Disasters NIDIS Sea Level Change Land Observations Architecture & Data Management

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The VisionProvide the right information, in the

right format, at the right time, to the right people,

to make the right decisions.

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The Vision Must Be Followed By The

VentureGEOSS will provide scientific basis for sound policy decisions in every sector of our society

Increase our capability to address natural disasters

Coordination presents challenges but is necessary for our efforts to be effective

We are moving forward Moving GOES Satellite GEO NetCast

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Near Term Opportunity

Air QualityThis plan identifies need for:

Integrated Observation-Model Air Quality Fields

Systems for Utilizing Observations to Improve AQ Forecasts

Assessments of Key Air Quality Processes

Improved Emissions Inventories

Improved International Transport Assessments

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Near Term Opportunity

National Integrated Drought

Information System (NIDIS) Identifies critical gaps in the nation’s infrastructure, which inhibit our ability to most effectively reduce the impact of drought

Early opportunities to address gaps include: Improvements in the frequency, timeliness, and density of key

observations Creation of an Internet portal to provide a drought early warning system Establishment of a NIDIS operations office to ensure optimization of

existing Federal, state, local and private sector observations and information delivery

Tracks to GEOSS and IEOS benefit areas Water Resource Management Disasters Sustainable Agriculture Climate Variability and Change

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Near Term

Opportunity Sea Level Change

Near Term Opportunity – Sea Level

Identifies needs for direct ocean observations, coastal observations, ice sheet measurements and associated observations, and reference frames

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Near Term Opportunity Land Observing

Identifies three enhancements that would be the basis of a functional GLOS:

Mid-decadal global data set of high resolution (30m) satellite imagery in 2006

Global land data base at high resolution (30m) and the seasonal collection of such data (i.e., continuity of Landsat-type observations)

Extension of a network (Global Integrated Trends Analysis Network) that combines ground data and earth observations from aircraft and space to evaluate land cover trends

Tracks to GEOSS and IEOS benefit areas: Terrestrial Ecosystems Climate Variability and Change Disasters Biodiversity Sustainable Agriculture/Combating Desertification

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Near Term Opportunity

NOAA Target ArchitectureTarget Architecture Principles:

Utility Interoperability Flexibility Sustainability Affordability

Coordinated with allappropriate partners

(international & national)

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Near Term Opportunity

Disasters-Tsunami Warning System

USGEO Near-Term Opportunity

Improved tsunami and coastal inundation forecast and warning capability

GEO Near-Term Effort Working Group on Tsunami

Activities continuing to provide integration observation requirements to the Indian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning System effort

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Integrated Ocean Observing System

(IOOS)

Tide Gauges

Argo Floats

Tsunami Buoys

Hurricane Buoys

AVHRR

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NOAA Satellite Program Status

National Polar Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System

(NPOESS)Technical Challenges and Cost Overruns to the Program

Independent Program Assessment Team provided analysis of options for the program

Options being evaluating by cost analysis experts

Proposed changes to structure of Integrated Program Office Program Executive structure under review

Nunn-McCurdy notification to Congress in January Currently working with Air Force to recertify the program

Dedicated to finding appropriate solution

FY07 President’s Request – $337.89M for NOAA, up $20.3M Matching request in the Air Force budget

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NOAA Satellite Program Status

Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Program

(GOES-R)The Secretary of Commerce approved next phase of program development—System Program Definition and Risk Reduction (PDRR). Three industry teams awarded – Boeing Space Systems, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman

FY06 Budget President’s Request—$241M; Enacted—$219M

FY07 President’s Request—$335.8M, up $113.4M

GOES-R System Acquisition and Operations projected for 2007

RFP release planned for end of Calendar Year 2006

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$3.7$3.6$3.3$3.2

$2.4

$2.8$3.1

$3.4

$3.9$3.9$3.7

$3.3$3.3$3.1

$2.4

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

FY 2000 FY 2001 FY 2002 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007

President’s Budget Enacted

NOAA Budget

($ in Billions)

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Current Environment

Appropriations Reorganization a Surprise

NOAA will now be considered by both the Senate and House subcommittees with:

=$16.5B FY ‘06 budget request

=$5.6B FY ’06 budget request

=$3.6B FY ’06 budget request

Although budget allocations should cover all of the requests, it is ultimately up to the Subcommittees to divvy up the money

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Intersection of Public Sector &

Private Sector NeedsHow do we get the “biggest bang for the buck”?

Prioritize needs based on benefits

Target resources to highest priorities

Leverage existing activities and investments

Build GEOSS/IEOS principles into planning of future systems

Questions?

Questions?

Background SlidesBackground Slides

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Near Term Opportunity

NOAA Target ArchitectureNOAA approved new Target Architecture

Observation System features and functions Expressed in terms of relationships, interfaces, processes

(including business) and constraints

Includes Three Components: The baseline architecture describes the current features and

functions of NOAA’s Observation System. The target architecture describes the desired features and

functions of NOAA’s future Observation System. An iterative process is used to move from the baseline architecture

to the target architecture.

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Data ManagementOngoing NOAA Efforts

NOAA’s Integrated Global Observation & Data Management Plan—2005 Update

Refined and updated observing system baseline architecture

Performing gap analysis between observing requirements and observing capabilities

Started investment analysis to determine efficient mix of observing systems to achieve requirements

Established NOAA-wide data standards group Implementing Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship System (CLASS) web-based data

archive and distribution system for NOAA’s environmental data

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ResearchTechnology and NOAA in the 21st

CenturySensors—Rugged and low cost

Platforms—Mobile, unmanned aerial and autonomous undersea vehicles

Information technology—Higher computer processing speed ; better data management and analysis tools

Telecommunications—Global networks will link modeling centers with service providers and users

These technologies will be exploited in developing an integrated Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) and holistic,

high resolution Earth system models

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Research NOAA Products and Services in

2025

Dramatic Improvements in

Forecasting Extreme Events

Highly Skillful

Seasonal to Decadal Climate

Predictions

Improved Understanding of

Physical, Chemical,

Biological, and Societal

Interactions

National Suite of Air Quality Services

Ocean Exploration for

Humankind

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Summary by Line Office

$ in millions

Line OfficeFY 06

Enacted

FY 07 Current

Program

Net Program Increase

FY 07 President’s

Budget

Percent Change (over Current

Program)

NOS $590.5 $369.1 $44.1 $413.1 11.9%

NMFS $811.5 $656.6 $81.1 $737.7 12.4%

OAR $379.6 $310.4 $38.2 $348.7 12.3%

NWS $848.2 $838.4 $43.5 $881.9 5.2%

NESDIS $952.2 $916.4 $117.4 $1,033.9 12.8%

PS/Other $491.0 $385.1 $21.0 $406.1 5.5%

Total $3,911.5 $3,338.8 $345.4 $3,684.1 10.3%

*Total includes financing adjustments

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PartnershipsNOAA Partnership Policy

“recognizes cooperation, not competition, with private sector and academic and research entities best serves the public interest.”