Forecasting Mortality By Making Use Of The Best-Practice ... · Forecasting Mortality By Making Use...
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Forecasting Mortality By Making Use OfThe Best-Practice Life Expectancy
Marius Pascariu, Vladimir Canudas-Romo
Max-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of AgingUniversity of Southern Denmark
September 9, 2015
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The Aim
To obtain better forecasts for female and male life expectancy bytaking into account the international context and male-femalecorrelation within the country.
The Double-Gap Life Expectancy Forecasting Model
Why?
I Positively correlation between life expectancy levels
I Constant increase in record life expectancy
I Convergence effect
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Data
I Human Mortality Database (2015)
I Historical period: 1950 - 2010
I Forecast period: 2011 - 2050
I Number of countries: 40
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The Record Life Expectancy at Birth
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The Best-Practice Trend
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France, Age 0, 1950-2050
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France, Age 0, 1950-2050
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Forecasting Dx ,t - The ARIMA(p,d,q) model
OdDx ,t = µ+
p∑i=1
φiOdDx ,t−i︸ ︷︷ ︸
Regression
+ εt +
q∑j=1
θjεt−j︸ ︷︷ ︸Smoothed noise
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Forecasting Dx ,t - France
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France, Age 0, 1950-2050
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France, Age 0, 1950-2050
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France, Age 0, 1950-2050
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Forecasting Gx ,t - Raftery type model (2014)
Gx ,t = β0 + β1Gx ,t−1 + β2Gx ,t−2︸ ︷︷ ︸Previous gaps
+ β3(efx ,t − τ)+︸ ︷︷ ︸Level of life expectancy
where the gapstarts narrowing
+εx ,t
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Forecasting Gx ,t - Raftery type model (2014)
Gx ,t = β0 + β1Gx ,t−1 + β2Gx ,t−2 + β3(efx ,t − τ)+ + εx ,t
Gx ,t = Gx ,t−1 + εx ,t︸ ︷︷ ︸Random walk
for ef0,t > A
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Forecasting Gx ,t - France
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France, Age 0, 1950-2050
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France, Age 0, 1950-2050
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France, Age 0, 1950-2050
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France, Age 65, 1950-2050
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Backtesting, Life expectancy at birth, 1950-1990-2010
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Conclusion
I The current approach combines separate forecasts to obtainthe male and female life expectancy levels
I The results are coherent with the best-practice trend andcorrelated
I The model allows the female life expectancy to exceed thebest-practice level
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Thank you for your attention!