Forecasting HR demand and supply
Transcript of Forecasting HR demand and supply
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FORECASTING HR SUPPLY AND DEMAND
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GROUP MEMBERS Imdad ul haq
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CONTENTS Introduction Forecasting HR Supply Factors Affecting HR supply Forecasting HR Supply Methods Forecasting HR Demand Factors affecting HR Demand Forecasting HR Demand Methods Conclusion
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Introduction
Human Resource Forecasting Process of projecting the organization future
HR need (demand) and how it will meet those needs (supply) under a given set of assumptions about the organization policies and the environment conditions where it operate.
Without Forecasting we can not asses the distinct between the supply and demand
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Forecasting HR supply The purpose of identifying future HR supply
requirements is to determine the number of employees require for each job and their knowledge, skills , abilities and other characteristics.
HR supply forecasting is essential in determining the characteristics of hiring sources with the predetermined planning horizon in order to establish whether future HR supply is sufficient to match future HR demands
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Factor affecting external Forecasting HR supply Supply and Demand of jobs or skills Education attainment levels within a
region Compensations pattern based on
experience , occupation or Education immigration and emigration patterns
within the area Forecast of economic Growth an decline
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Factor affecting Internal Forecasting HR supply
Organizational features (e.g ., staffing capabilities )
Productivity – Rates of productivity , productivity changes
Rates of promotion , demotion , transfer and turnover
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Forecasting HR supply methods
Trend Analysis Competency model Replacement charts
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Trend Analysis Trend analysis involves collecting and
evaluating data to identify patterns of information that might impact future
A method of forecasting that assume past trends and ratios in employee movements are stable and indicative of future trends and ratio in employee movement
One of the simplest method for Forecasting future HR supply
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For Example , an organization reviewing historical data may realize that every year approximately five of their staff retire , six percent resign and three percent are dismissed
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Competency model Competencies are behaviors that
encompass the knowledge , skills and attitude required for successful performance
Competency modeling is the activity of determining the specific competencies that are characteristic of high performance and success in given job
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Competency model focus on matching the right skills or competencies needed for each job with the skills available with in the organization
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Replacement chart
A chart used to estimate the vacancies in higher level jobs and identifying how potential HR supply can fill these vacancies via internal movements for lower level jobs
Replacement chart provide identification of potential replacements for vacancies within the organization
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Generally, a Replacement chart includes information about employees performance readiness to fill the position, and education
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Forecasting HR Demand Forecasting HR demand is the process
of estimating the future HR requirement of right quality and right number
HR demand forecasting requirement is to be estimated keeping in view the organization plan over given period of time
Job analysis and forecasting about the quality of potential HR facilitates demand forecasting.
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Factor affecting Forecasting HR Demand Human Resource Demand Forecasting depends on several factors, some of which are given below.
Employment trends; Replacement needs; Productivity; Absenteeism; and Expansion and growth.
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Forecasting HR Demand methods Managerial Judgment Work Study Technique Econometrics Models
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Managerial Judgment This technique involves two types of
approaches i.e. 'bottom-up approach' and 'top-down approach'
Under the 'bottom-up approach', line mangers send their departmental requirement of human resources to top management
Under the Top-down approach', top management forecasts the human resource requirement for the entire organization and various departments.
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Work-Study Technique
This technique is also known as 'work-load analysis'. This technique is suitable where the estimated work-load is easily measureable.
Under this method, estimated total production and activities for a specific future period are predicted
Under this method demand of human resources is forecasted on the basis of estimated total production and contribution of each employee
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Econometrics Model
These models are based on mathematical and statistical techniques for estimating future demand
Under these models relationship is established between the dependent variable to be predicted and the independent variables
Using these models, estimated demand of human resources can be predicted.
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Conclusion
Forecasting is a process of making statements about events those actual outcomes have not yet been observed
HR forecasting is all about estimating future demand and supply of HR in an organization
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QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS