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Forecasting Hazards & Charting a Safe Course How to Plan Changes in Flight Safety Programs to Meet...
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Transcript of Forecasting Hazards & Charting a Safe Course How to Plan Changes in Flight Safety Programs to Meet...
Forecasting Hazards & Charting a Safe
Course
How to Plan Changes in Flight Safety Programs to Meet Future Safety Issues,
Decisions &Attitudes
How to Plan Changes in Flight Safety Programs to Meet Future
Safety Issues, Decisions &Attitudes
and Keep Your Business Profitable!
Welcome Safety Managers
Charles Dodgson, Oxford math lecturer, text author,
1850’s-1880’s
Lewis Carroll writer of children's books 1850’s -1880’s
Caricature by Zach Trenholm, SALON Magazine.
Planning
Alice in Wonderland
Alice said to the Cat, ‘Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?’
‘That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,’ said the Cheshire Cat.
‘I don’t much care where…’ said Alice.
‘Then it doesn’t matter which way you go,’ said the Cheshire Cat.
‘…so long as I get somewhere,’ Alice added as an explanation.
‘Oh, you’re sure to do that,’ said the Cheshire Cat, ‘if you only walk long enough.’
Flight safety program managers need to know know
which wawhich wayy to to ggoo…
& how far to walk to become accidentaccident ppreventersreventers…
… and not become
accidentaccident investiinvestiggatorsators!
Procedures & Examples of how to produce…
Safety
Forecast & Plans
Annual Safety ForecastForecast &Annual Safety PlanPlan
Safety
Forecast & Plans
...to meet Future SafetFuture Safetyy Issues, Issues, Decisions & AttitudesDecisions & Attitudes
Safety
Forecast & Plans
Paul Miller
-Independent safety consultant-B767 & B757 int’l line captain,-Flies for a global logistics company & express package delivery service-Safety program manager:
pilot association, 2 airports & aspecialized air logistics
organization
Paul Miller is now:
-Independent safety consultant
http://SafetyForecast.com
Safety Forecasts & Plans
Safety Forecasts & Plans
-Simple Procedures
Safety Forecasts & Plans
-Simple Procedures-Estimating and Compensating
Safety Forecasts & Plans
-Simple Procedures-Estimating and Compensating-Expected Flight Safety Hazards
Safety Forecasts & Plans
-Simple Procedures-Estimating and Compensating-Expected Flight Safety Hazards-As yet Unresolved
Safety Forecasts & Plans
-Simple Procedures-Estimating and Compensating-Expected Flight Safety Hazards-As yet Unresolved-As yet Unmanaged
Safety Forecasts & Plans
-Simple Procedures-Estimating and Compensating-Expected Flight Safety Hazards-As yet Unresolved-As yet Unmanaged-May be Unreported
Safety Forecasts & Plans
-Simple Procedures-Estimating and Compensating-Expected Flight Safety Hazards-As yet Unresolved-As yet Unmanaged-May be Unreported-Will affect a local organization…
Safety Forecasts & Plans
-Simple Procedures-Estimating and Compensating-Expected Flight Safety Hazards-As yet Unresolved-As yet Unmanaged-May be Unreported-Will affect a local organization…
…YOURS!
…All Safety is Local
Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards
Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards-using cultural listening
Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards-using cultural listening-not exact science
Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards-using cultural listening-not exact science-daily working list
Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards-using cultural listening-not exact science-daily working list-logical inductive reasoning
Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards-using cultural listening-not exact science-daily working list-logical inductive reasoning-calculation of risk
Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards-using cultural listening-not exact science-daily working list-logical inductive reasoning-calculation of risk -mathematical, graphic modeling
What are Hazards?
What are Hazards?-Probable Risks
What are Hazards?-Probable Risks -Serious Risks
What are Hazards?-Probable Risks -Serious Risks
People
What are Hazards?-Probable Risks -Serious Risks
People-Injury & Death
What are Hazards?-Probable Risks -Serious Risks
People-Injury & Death
Property
What are Hazards?-Probable Risks -Serious Risks
People-Injury & Death
Property-Damage &
Destruction
What are Hazards?-Probable Risks -Serious Risks
People $$$$-Injury & Death
Property -Damage &
Destruction
What are Hazards?-Probable Risks -Serious Risks
People $$$$-Injury & Death
Property $$$$-Damage &
Destruction
What are Hazard$?-Probable Risk$ -Serious Risk$
People $$$$-Injury & Death
Property $$$$-Damage &
DestructionAdditional cost$?
Hazard Unresolved?
Hazard Unresolved?
-no strategy for resolution?
Hazard Unresolved?
-no strategy for resolution?
-longstanding?
Hazard Unresolved?
-no strategy for resolution?
-longstanding?
-culturally accepted as “irresolvable”?
Hazard Unmanaged?
Hazard Unmanaged?
-no manager for resolution?
Hazard Unmanaged?
-no manager for resolution?
-no assigned manager?
Hazard Unmanaged?
-no manager for resolution?
-no assigned manager?
-assigned manager not functioning?
Hazard Unreported?
Hazard Unreported?
-New or emerging hazard?
Hazard Unreported?
-New or emerging hazard?
-Known but unreported?
Hazard Unreported?
-New or emerging hazard?
-Known but unreported?
-Reoccurring hazard?
Hazard Affect?
Hazard Affect?
-people?
Hazard Affect?
-people?
-your local organization?
Hazard Affect?
-people?
-your local organization?
-customers, neighbors & visitors?
Hazard Affect?
Hazard Affect?
-property & equipment?
Hazard Affect?
-property & equipment?
-your local organization?
Hazard Affect?
-property & equipment?
-your local organization?
-belonging to others?
Early Detection
…is the key
Why Early DetectionEarly Detection?
The earlier a hazard is The earlier a hazard is detected by a forecast, detected by a forecast, the earlier a resolution the earlier a resolution plan can be created.plan can be created.
Miller’s Early Detection Theorem
Miller’s Early Detection Theorem
The longer a hazard exists,
Miller’s Early Detection Theorem
The longer a hazard exists, the higher the probability that it will cause a mishap
Why Detection at all Detection at all?
Miller’s Hazard & MishaMiller’s Hazard & Mishapp TheoremTheorem
Why Detection Detection at all?
Miller’s Hazard & MishaMiller’s Hazard & Mishapp TheoremTheorem
A. Mishaps Mishaps are ‘hazard-hazard-basedbased’
Why DetectionDetection at all?
Miller’s Hazard & MishaMiller’s Hazard & Mishapp TheoremTheorem
A. Mishaps Mishaps are ‘hazard-hazard-basedbased’
B. HazardsHazards are ‘people-people-actionaction’
Why DetectionDetection at all?
Miller’s Hazard & MishaMiller’s Hazard & Mishapp TheoremTheorem
A. Mishaps Mishaps are ‘hazard-hazard-basedbased’
B. HazardsHazards are ‘people-people-actionaction’ or ‘lack-of-action’lack-of-action’-basedbased
Miller’s Hazard & Mishap Theorem Corollary
Miller’s Hazard & Mishap Theorem Corollary
Elimination of ‘people-based’ hazards…
Miller’s Hazard & Mishap Theorem Corollary
Elimination of ‘people-based’ hazards…eliminates the basis for mishaps.
Miller’s Safety Riddle:
Miller’s Safety Riddle: Does the mishap cause the hazard to occur?
??
Miller’s Safety Riddle: Does the mishap cause the hazard to occur? Or does the hazard cause the mishap to occur? ? ?
??
Miller’s Safety Riddle: Does the mishap cause the hazard to occur? Or does the hazard cause the mishap to occur? ? ?
??
?
Miller’s Quickness Corollary to Early
Detection Theorem…
Miller’s Quickness Corollary to Early
Detection Theorem…
The quicker a hazard is resolved,
Miller’s Quickness Corollary to Early
Detection Theorem…
The quicker a hazard is resolved, the lower the probability that the hazard will cause a mishap.
Miller’s Quickness Corollary to Early
Detection Theorem…
The quicker a hazard is resolved, the lower the probability that the hazard will cause a mishap.
The resolution time is as The resolution time is as important as the resolutionimportant as the resolution
Miller’s Quickness Corollary to Early
Detection Theorem…
The resolution time is as The resolution time is as important as the important as the resolutionresolution
Rabbit
Response
Rabbit
Response
Annual Safety Planbased on Rabbit Response of
Resolution
Annual Safety Planbased on Rapid Response of
Resolution
Annual Safety Plan-based on Rapid Response of
Resolutionfrom Hazard Report Recommendations
Annual Safety Plan-based on Rapid Response of
Resolutionfrom Hazard Report Recommendations • Immediate InterventionImmediate Intervention:
affecting Procedure, Practice, Technique
Annual Safety Plan-based on Rapid Response of
Resolutionfrom Hazard Report Recommendations • Immediate Intervention:
affecting Procedure, Practice, Technique
• Interim RemediationInterim Remediation: affecting Policy, Procedure
Annual Safety Plan-based on Rapid Response of
Resolutionfrom Hazard Report Recommendations • Immediate Intervention:
affecting Procedure, Practice, Technique
• Interim Remediation: affecting Policy, Procedure
• Long Term ResolutionLong Term Resolution: affecting Philosophy, Policy
Annual Safety Plan-based on Rapid Response of Resolution
from Hazard Report Recommendations • Immediate Intervention: affecting
Procedure, Practice, Technique• Interim Remediation: affecting
Policy, Procedure • Long Term Resolution: affecting
Philosophy, Policy
Hazard Intervention = Mishap PreventionHazard Intervention = Mishap Prevention
Annual Safety Plan-based on Rapid Response of
Resolutionfrom Hazard Report Recommendations
Hazard Intervention = Mishap Hazard Intervention = Mishap PreventionPrevention
Credible Source
Safety manger
Safety Forecasting
Calculation of the Risk of the Hazard
Calculation of the Risk of the Hazard
Calculation of the Risk of the Hazard
0
+Y
+X
+Z
100%
Risk may vary by time of day, time of season, time of year
Times of high activity, low activity, combined activity & coincidence
Miller’s Safety Formula for Risk
Risk equals probability times seriousness
Miller’s Safety Formula for Risk
Risk equals probability times seriousness
Z = X Y
Miller’s Safety Formula for Risk
Risk equals probability times seriousness
Z = X Y
Z = XY
Miller’s Safety Formula for Risk
Risk equals probability times seriousness
Z = X Y
Z = XY-Three dimensional curve, depicting the full range of risks. It is a graphic display of the safety challenge
Miller’s Formula for Safety Risk is a
Mathematical expression of
Hazard Risk of Cost of Loss or “Z”
Z = sine |X| N (Y)Where:
X = Hazard Probability from 0 to ‘here-it-comes’
Y = Hazard Seriousness from minor to major
Sine = regular time fluctuations
N = variable factors
N = Miller’s Possible Variable factors
N = n1+n2+n3+n4+n5+n6, where:
n1 = Assigned legal punitive costs
n2 = Loss of public relations image & market share
n3 = Loss of managerial talent to resolving disaster
n4 = Loss of company growth & productivity
n5 = Employee morale destruction
n6 = Eventual discovery that disaster was preventable causing loss of confidence
A graph of the mathematical equation ‘Z= sine|X|(NY)’ gives a
visual clue to the magnitude of the safety hazard resolution
challenge!
.
Hazard Risk of Cost of Loss is product of two other factors & is somewhat geometric
Risk (costs) = probability x severityZ = X Y where Z, X,Y>0
Severity and probability grow together the costs begin a rise in risk cost.
Planning
…from local safety forecast
Planning involves very specific procedures, which
are clear for your local local organizationorganization to follow.
Planning involves very specific recommended procedures for
external external organizations
Conclusion
Charting a safe courseCharting a safe course
Successful Flight Safety Program
Procedures…
…
to keep one step ahead of the next big accident
……lower your local accident rate toward zero!lower your local accident rate toward zero!
!!
!
!!
Forecasting Hazards & Planning Change to meet Future Safety Issues, Decisions & Attitudes…
Forecasting Hazards & Planning Change to meet Future Safety Issues, Decisions & Attitudes…
……and Keep Your Business and Keep Your Business Profitable!Profitable!