Forecasting the Unpredictable: A Review of Forecasts on Terrorism ...
Forecasting Global Terrorism - Economics & Country … Markets Analysis Forecasting Global Terrorism...
Transcript of Forecasting Global Terrorism - Economics & Country … Markets Analysis Forecasting Global Terrorism...
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World Markets Analysis
Forecasting Global TerrorismOctober 2003
Guy Dunn ([email protected])World Markets Research Centre
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Global Terrorism Index 2003/4
Agenda
■ The World Markets Research Centre■ What is the Global Terrorism Index aiming to do?■ How is the report structured?■ What is the methodology?■ What are the key findings of the report?■ What are the key findings of the survey?
■ Questions & Answers
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Global Terrorism Index 2003/4
World Markets Research Centre (www.wmrc.com)
■ Subsidiary of Global Insight■ Provider of enhanced country risk intelligence■ Same-day Analysis, 5-year forecasts and Country Risk
Reports on 186 different countries – focusing on politics, economics, security, operational, tax and legal risks
■ Our focus is country risk analysis, modelling and forecasting■ 60 full-time analysts divided into six regional teams –
backed up by 120 in-country advisers/stringers■ 500 separate government, academic and corporate clients
located in 45 different countries worldwide
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Global Terrorism Index 2003/4
WMRC’s country risks expertise
■ Country risks analysis on 186 countries■ Sovereign risks analysis on 186 countries■ Global Terrorism Index 2003/4 – 186 countries■ Corruption ratings provided to Transparency International on
186 countries■ Terrorism risks analysis on 186 countries provided to Aon■ 13-factor risk ratings provided for World Bank report on 186
countries■ Bespoke risk analysis work carried out for various clients
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Global Terrorism Index 2003/4
What is the Global Terrorism Index aiming to do?
■ Terrorism was always central to our security risk rating■ However, clients often considered it a peripheral threat:
– the impact was usually limited to just the targeted country– whilst tragic, most attacks were effectively small-scale
■ This changed after the attacks on 11 September:– business was specifically targeted– the indiscriminate nature of the attacks– the internationalisation of the terrorists’ grievances
■ The War on Terror is set to be the key determinant of US foreign policy (and hence global current affairs) for the rest of the decade
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Global Terrorism Index 2003/4
What is the Global Terrorism Index aiming to do?
■ Clients feel that terrorism is a very real threat that will get worse before it gets better
■ Clients need accurate, up-to-date and independent analysis of the risks they face from terrorism in all the countries they operate
■ To meet these needs we used our country risk modelling skills to produce our Global Terrorism Index 2003/4(published on 18 August).
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Global Terrorism Index 2003/4
What is the Global Terrorism Index aiming to do?
■ Our Index is designed to assess the risk of terrorism in each country, and against that country’s interests abroad, over the next 12 months
■ It does this by qualitatively rating five key factors for each country – Motivation, Presence, Scale, Efficacy and Prevention – and then giving each of these a quantitative weighting in order to determine its overall Terrorism Risk
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Global Terrorism Index 2003/4
Terrorism Index Criteria - % Breakdown
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Global Terrorism Index 2003/4
Global Terrorism Index 2003/4 - Africa Region
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Global Terrorism Index 2003/4
World Terrorism Risk
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Global Terrorism Index 2003/4
What are the key findings?
■ The US has the 4th highest risk of terrorism. Another 11 September-styled terrorist attack is highly likely
■ The UK faces the greatest risk from terrorism of any European state, and is ranked 10th overall
■ Colombia is ranked top out of the 186 countries that we assessed
■ Israel was the only other country to be rated as at Extreme Risk, ranking second in the index
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Global Terrorism Index 2003/4
What are the key findings?
■ Pakistan, Philippines, Afghanistan, Indonesia, Iraq, India and Sri Lanka make up the rest of the top ten
■ North Korea came bottom of the survey despite its membership in the so-called ‘Axis of Evil’
■ Tourism, energy, financial services and telecoms perceived to be most at risk of terrorism in our Client survey
■ US, UK companies perceived to be most at threat in Client survey – followed by Spanish, Australian and French companies
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Global Terrorism Index 2003/4
Global Terrorism Index 2003/4 - Regional Averages
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Global Terrorism Index 2003/4
Do you think terrorism poses a greater risk than five years ago?
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Global Terrorism Index 2003/4
Do you factor the risk of terrorism into your decision-making process regarding investment locations?
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Global Terrorism Index 2003/4
Do you think terrorism impacts on the profitability and smooth running of your business?
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Global Terrorism Index 2003/4
Which countries’ businesses would you rate as being at Extreme or High risk of being targeted?
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Global Terrorism Index 2003/4
Do you think the War in Iraq has decreased or increased the risk of terrorism in the following countries?
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Global Terrorism Index 2003/4
Which sectors are most at risk from terrorism?
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Global Terrorism Index 2003/4
Any Questions?