Forecasting future demand and supply of rare earth elements (REE) Kalvig... · 2014-04-11 ·...
Transcript of Forecasting future demand and supply of rare earth elements (REE) Kalvig... · 2014-04-11 ·...
04-02-2014
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Forecasting future demand and supply of rare
earth elements (REE)
… with some focus on issues related to recycling
Per Kalvig
Recycling Manufacture of
components
Transport Mineral exploration Mining
Processing raw materials
The raw materials supply chain
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Sc Scandium
Y(*) Yttrium
La Lanthan
Ce Cerium
Pr Praseodym
Nd(*) Neodym
Pm Promethium
Sm Samarium
Eu(*) Eurobium
Gd Gadolinium
Tb (*) Terbium
Dy(*) Dysprosium
Ho Holmium
Er Erbium
Tm Thulium
Yb Yterbium
Lu Lutetium
Lig
ht R
EE
= L
RE
E
Hea
vy R
EE
= H
RE
E
(*): Critical REO = CREO REE is a group of elements,
with rather simillar chemical
and physical characteristics.
Myth #1: ”Rare earth elements are soil”!
No! They are metals
Kild
e:
Gord
on H
axel, U
SG
S.
REE are rare in the solar system!
But in the crust of the Earth they are as commen as nickel, chromium, tin,
tungsten, titanium and lead.
Not common in the the rockforming minerals. Occurs in special geological
environments.
Myth #2: ”Rare earth’s are rare”!
No! – more common than gold and platinum!
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Sou
rce:
Ind
ust
rial
Min
eral
s an
d R
ock
s, U
SGS,
M
od
ifie
d b
y G
EUS
Mineralisation Chemical composition (approx.) Type Max %
REO Ancylite SrREE(CO3)2(OH).H2O Carbonate 46
Bastnaesite (Ce,La,Y)(CO3)F Carbonate 75
Hydroxylbastna. REECO3(OH,F) Carbonate 75
Parisite CaREE2(CO3)3F2 Carbonate 64
Yttrosynchisite (Ce,Y)FCO3 Carbonate 50
Fluocerite (La, Ce)F3 Fluoride 70
Brannerite (U,Ca,Y,Ce)(Ti,Fe)2O6 Oxide 6
Cerianite (Ce,Th)O2 Oxide 81
Euxenite (Y,Ca,Ce,U,Th)(Nb,Ta,Ti)2O6 Oxide 30
Fergusonite (Y,Er,U,Th)(Nb,Ta,Ti)O4 Oxide 46
Loparite (Na,Ca,Y,Ce)(Nb,Ti)O3 Oxide 34
Pyrochlore (Na,Ca,Ce)2Nb2O6F Oxide 6
Samarskite (Y,Ce,Fe,U,Th,Ca)(Nb,Ta,Ti)O4 Oxide 22
Apatite (Ca,Ce)5{(P,Si)O4}3 (F, Cl, OH) Phosphate 12
Florencite CeAl3(PO4)2(OH)6 Phosphate 32
Monazite (Ce,La,Pr,Nd,Th,Y)PO4 Phosphate 71
Xenotime YPO4 Phosphate 62
Steenstrupine Na14Ce6Mn2Fe2(Zr,Th)(Si6O18)2(PO4)7.3H2O Phosphosilic. 31
Allanite (orthite) (Ce,Ca,Y)2(Al,Fe)3(SiO4)3OH Silicate 28
Britholite (Ce, Ca)5(SiO4, PO4)3(OH,F) Silicate 62
Catapleite Na2ZrSi3O9.2H2O Silicate
Cerite (Ce,La,Ca)9(Mg,Fe)(SiO4)6(SiO3OH)(OH)3 Silicate 65
Eudialyte Na15Ca6(Fe,Mn)3Zr3(Si,Nb)Si25O73(OH,Cl,H2O)5 Silicate 10
Gadolinite (La,Nd,Y,Ce)2FeBe2Si2O10 Silicate 52
Kainosite Ca2(Y,REE)2Si4O12CO3.H2O Silicate 38
Mosandrite (Ca,Na,REE)12(Ti,Zr)2Si7O31H6F4 Silicate 33
Thalenite Y3Si3O10(OH) Silicate 63
Zircon (Zr,Th,Y,Ce)SiO4 Silicate 4
Lovozerite H4Na2Ca(Zr,Ti)[Si6O18]. Silicate
Some REE-
minerals are
more economic
More than 300
minerals are known
to carry REE.
REE-grade varies
from mineral to
mineral.
REE-composition
varies from mineral
to mineral.
Different treatment
required to extract
the REE from the
minerals.
Modified by GEUS from BGS, 2010
REO production and development projects
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Mt. Weld, Australia
Monazite (%REO)
Longnan, Kina (%REO)
Ion-adsorption clay Kvanefjeld, Greenland
Steenstrupine (%REO)
Kringlerne, Greenland
Eudialyte (%REO)
The REE grade and –ratio is a function of the mineral
(22 vol%) Permanent magnets
(22 vol%) Catalytical processes
(20 vol%) Metallurgical sector incl.
batteries
(13 vol%)Tecnical ceramics
( 8 vol%) Polishing powders
( 8 vol%) Glass additives
( 4 vol%) Phosphors
( 3%) Other
Weapons- and defense industries
Water treatment
Pigments
Fertilizers
Pharmaceutical
Coating
Laser
Fiber optical sector
The most important industry sectors for REE
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Technical ceramics
13 vol%/ 7 value%
(NdFeB)-magnets
22 vol% / 37 value%
%
Metallurgical industry and batteries
20 vol% / 14 value%
Phosphorescence
4 vol% /31 value%
Glass industries
industrien
8 vol%/ 2 value%
Catalyst market
22 vol%/ 5 value%
Polishing
powders
8 vol% / 4 value%
0-7%
7-10%
~%
15-20% 10-16%
6-8%
X% expected annual growth
REO consumption related to various sectors (2008)
REO consumption (tREO) varies between regions (2011)
5.300
4.600
3.800
8.500
3.000
1.700 300 700
27.000
18.500 11.500
6.350
7.750
5.500
4.000 6.400
450 500
4.500
500
250 500
100 200
500
400
700 400
500
300
100 200
Permanent magnets
Metallurgical sectors
Catalytical sectors
Polishing processes
Glass additionals
Phosphorescense and pigments
Advanced ceramic materials
Other applications
USA (7.0 kt/y) Japan and rest of Asia (27.9 kt/y)
China (87 kt/y Other (3.1 kt/y)
Based on Roskill, 2012
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Annual REO production (t)
Source: Roskill, 2013
Country Production
2011 (tons
REO)
Production
2012 (tons
REO)
USA - 7,000
Australia 2,200 4,000
Brazil 250 300
China 105,000 95,000
India 2,800 2,800
Malaysia 280 350
Other NA NA
Total 111,000 110,000
From: USGS, 2013
UralK
ali Su
mito
mo
/ KA
Zatom
Pro
m
Great W
estern
Lynäs
Mo
lycorp
In
dian
Rare Earth
Ltd.
Forecast 2013:
ROW 24,000 t REO
China 96,000 t REO
Total 120,000 t REO
Annual REO production (t)
Source: Roskill, 2013
UralKali
Sum
itom
o/ K
AZato
mP
rom
G
reat Western
Lyn
äs M
olyco
rp
Ind
ian R
are Earth Ltd
.
Source: Roskill, 2012
Forecast 2013:
ROW 24,000 t REO
China 96,000 t REO
Total 120,000 t REO
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China: REO production- and quota 2007-2011
China – export quota 60.200 47.500 50.200 30.300 30.300
Ion-adsorbed clay
Monazite
Ion-adsorbed clay
Ion-adsorbed clay
Baestnaesite
Ion-adsorbed clay
Baestnaesite
Monazite
Ion-adsorbed clay
REE resource c. 30% in China
Myth #3: ”China has monopolized the REE value chain!”
Partly correct! But many efforts to break the monopoly
REE ressource ROW
New producers
?
?
RE mining and
processessing
From ore to til RE-
oxides/carbonates
Refinary of oxides
to metals
Production of alloys
for magnets based
on RE-metals
Manufacture of
NdFeB magnet
80% in China
c. 100% in China
86% in China
75-80% in China
20-25% in Japan
75-80% in China
17-25% in Japan
3- 5% in Europe
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REE resource c. 30% in China
Myth #3: ”China has monopolized the value chain of
the REE!”
Partly correct! But huge REE resources excists outside China
REE ressource ROW
New producers
?
?
RE mining and
processessing
From ore to til RE-
oxides/carbonates
Refinary of oxides
to metals
Production of alloys
for magnets based
on RE-metals
Manufacture of
NdFeB magnet
80% in China
c. 100% in China
86% in China
75-80% in China
20-25% in Japan
75-80% in China
17-25% in Japan
3- 5% in Europe
Chinese production quota
Chinese export quota
China’s rare earth’s export markets (2011)
Europe: c. 18% (equivalent to c. 5,500 t REO/y (2011)
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Total share of RE-compounds imported by the EU-27
Europe: c. 5,500 t REO/y (2011) + REO from ROW
…. in addition to imported REE-containing components
Total share of RE-compounds imported by the EU-27
Europe: c. 5,500 t REO/y (2011) + REO from ROW
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Selected industrial REE activities in Europe (2011)
Country Selected companies Products
France - Rhodia Automotive catalysts, phosphors
Austria - Treibacher Industries AG Catalysts, glass polishign powder, glass fusion, pigments and ceramic glazed, pharmaceutical products
Netherlands - Walker Europe - Goudsmit Magnetic Systems
Magnet production Magnet production
UK - Magnet Applications - Arnold Magnetic Technologies - Less Common Metals Ltd.
Magnet production Magnet production Alloys
Germany - Vacuumschmeltze Magnet production
Estonia - Silmet Rare Metals REE separation; RE-metal production
Forecast: Rare earth market demand (2012 - 2018)
Nd, Pr
Dy, Gd,
Tb
Ce
Dy, La La, Ce
La, Ce,
Nd
Pr, Sm
Ce, La
Nd, Pr Y, Ce
La, Eu,
Tb Ce, La
Pr, Nd
Y, Ce,
La
Nd, Pr
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REO and –metal prices 2011 (99% purity)
REE Metal Oxide
Price (US$/kg Price (US$/kg)
Europium 6,600 5,860
Terbium 5,100 4,500
Dysprosium 3,400 2,580
Neodymium 470 335
Praseodymium 280 247
Gadolinium 225 200
Yttrium 210 185
Samarium 190 130
Cerium 165 180
Lanthanum 165 150
Prices FOB China. Source: Metal-pages, 2011
Forecast on REE prices 2012-2018
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Country Production
2011 (tons
REO)
Production
2012 (tons
REO)
Reserves
(tons REO)
Reserver
(tons REO)
USA - 7,000 13,000,000 11,800,000
Australia 2,200 4,000 1,600,000 13,400,000
Brazil 250 300 36,000 52,600,000
China 105,000 95,000 55,000,000 36,000,000
India 2,800 2,800 3,100,000 3,100,000
Malaysia 280 350 30,000
Other NA NA 41,000,000 52,000,000
Total 111,000 110,000 110,000,000 168,900,000
Source: USGS, 2013 Source: USGS, 2013 Source: USGS, 2013
Source: Chinese Society of Rare Earth, 2010
+ resourcer
related to about
700 known
occurrences
which are not
yet messured.
Myth #4: ”The World is running short of REE!”
No! The excisting reserves are sufficient for 800 years
Supply and demand forecast (t REO +/- 20%) in 2016
Producers Estim.
REO (kt)
2016
Estim.
REO (kt)
2018
Mountain Pass 19.0 19.0
Mt. Weld 22.0 22.0
Kina 93.8 93.8
Indien 2.8 2.8
Malaysia 0.4 0.4
Brasilien 0.0 0.0
Rycycling 5.0 5.0
Total 143.0 143.0 Sou
rce:
Deu
tsch
e B
ank,
201
3
Demand Supply
2016
Supply – max 257 kt
Supply - min 163 kt
Demand – max 210 kt
Demand - min 190 kt
Sou
rce:
K.R
. Lo
ng,
USG
S, 2
011
Supply ballance: +67 kt to -53 kt
A supply deficit of 50 kt/y leaves room for about 5 new mines. Who is likely to supply the ballance?
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Forecasted supply in 2014 (estimated in 2010)
Company Kingsnorth (t REO) Lynas (tREO)
China 80-100,000 60,000
Bayan Obo 20-40,000 20,000
Ion adsorption clays 40-50,000 30,000
Monazite 8-12,000 -
Recycling in China - 4,000
China total 160-170,000 114,000
Mountain Pass 20,000 20,000
Mt. Weld 21,000 22,000
India & Russia - 12,000
Recycling outside China
0 1,800
ROW total 42,000 64,800
Supply forecast for 2014 (estimated in 2010)
Element Kingsnorth (supply) (t REO)
Lynas (supply) (tREO)
Kingsnorth (balance) (tREO)
Lynas (balance) (tREO)
Cerium 80-85,000 66,500 Up to 25,000 +7,500
Lanthanum 52-57,000 43,400 -3,000 to +7,000 -13,700
Neodymium 33,000 31,200 -1,900 -14,200
Yttrium 9-13,000 9,500 -5,000 to +3,000 -1,200
Praseodymium 10,000 9,100 +2,100 -7,000
Samarium 4,000 3,500 +2,600 +2,300
Gadolinium 3,000 2,300 +700 +900
Dysprosium 1,800-2,000 1,700 -500 to +100 -1,100
Erbium 1,000 n.d. +60 n.d.
Europium 850 450 +10 -110
Ho-Tm-Yb-Lu 1,300 n.d. n.d.
Terbium 400-500 330 -100 to +100 -290
Total 190-210,000 167,980
Based on Öko-Institut 2011
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Recycling of REE - part of a sustainable strategy
(22 vol%) Permanent magnets
(22 vol%) Catalytical processes
(20 vol%) Metallurgical sector incl.
batteries
(13 vol%)Tecnical ceramics
(8 vol%) Polishing powders
(8 vol%) Glass additives
(4 vol%) Phosphorescense
Total recovery depends on a
number of factors:
e.g.:
Collection f.x.: 30%
Dismantling &
pre-processing f.x 60%
Smelting & refining: 95%
f.x. Total: 17%
Recovery will vary from
element to element
Technical ceramics
13 vol%/ 7 value%
(NdFeB)-magnets
22 vol% / 37 value%
%
Metallurgical industry and batteries
20 vol% / 14 value%
Phosphorescence
4 vol% /31 value%
Glass industries
industrien
8 vol%/ 2 value%
Catalyst market
22 vol%/ 5 value%
Polishing
powders
8 vol% / 4 value%
0-7%
7-10%
~%
15-20% 10-16%
6-8%
X% expected annual growth
Recycling – likely to recover only some of the REE
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Rare earth magnet demand by key growth market
(2012-2018)
Rare earth magnet demand by key growth market
(2012-2018)
Scrap source Service life
Hard disk drives 5-10 years
Loud speakers 5-10 years
Mixed electronics 5-10 years
Motors and generators in hybrid & electric vehicles 15 years
Generators in wind turbines 20 years
MRI scanners 15 years
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Distribution of value in Kvanefjeld Project (Source: GME, 2013)
31 31
7%
4%
8%
18%
32%
0%
4%
1%
4%
13%
0% 1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
1%
Proportion of Value Contribution
U La Ce Pr
Nd Sm Eu Gd
Tb Dy Ho Er
Tm Yb Lu Y
Zn
Recycling – How is it impacting new mining projects?
Thank you!