Forecasting Bitcoin with the Datagami API (talk given at PAPIs 2014)
15
Forecasting ฿itcoin Keiran Thompson
-
Upload
keiran-thompson -
Category
Internet
-
view
307 -
download
0
Transcript of Forecasting Bitcoin with the Datagami API (talk given at PAPIs 2014)
![Page 1: Forecasting Bitcoin with the Datagami API (talk given at PAPIs 2014)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a143691a28ab81048b45a2/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Forecasting ฿itcoinKeiran Thompson
![Page 2: Forecasting Bitcoin with the Datagami API (talk given at PAPIs 2014)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a143691a28ab81048b45a2/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Why all the fuss about ฿?
Secure digital transactions enable real innovation:
• Very low fees ⟹ remittances 37coins.com
• Micro-payments (฿0.000001 == ฿100)
• Block-chain ⟹ complete traceability of transactionsonename.io
Liquidity remains an issue for non-USD currencies
![Page 3: Forecasting Bitcoin with the Datagami API (talk given at PAPIs 2014)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a143691a28ab81048b45a2/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
฿/USD
![Page 4: Forecasting Bitcoin with the Datagami API (talk given at PAPIs 2014)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a143691a28ab81048b45a2/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
฿/USD - log scale
![Page 5: Forecasting Bitcoin with the Datagami API (talk given at PAPIs 2014)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a143691a28ab81048b45a2/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
฿/USD
![Page 6: Forecasting Bitcoin with the Datagami API (talk given at PAPIs 2014)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a143691a28ab81048b45a2/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
฿/USD
![Page 8: Forecasting Bitcoin with the Datagami API (talk given at PAPIs 2014)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a143691a28ab81048b45a2/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Does it work?
http://newsoffice.mit.edu/2014/mit-computer-scientists-can-predict-price-bitcoin
![Page 9: Forecasting Bitcoin with the Datagami API (talk given at PAPIs 2014)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a143691a28ab81048b45a2/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Gaussian Processes
![Page 10: Forecasting Bitcoin with the Datagami API (talk given at PAPIs 2014)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a143691a28ab81048b45a2/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Gaussian Processes
![Page 11: Forecasting Bitcoin with the Datagami API (talk given at PAPIs 2014)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a143691a28ab81048b45a2/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Gaussian Processes
![Page 12: Forecasting Bitcoin with the Datagami API (talk given at PAPIs 2014)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a143691a28ab81048b45a2/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Gaussian Processes
![Page 15: Forecasting Bitcoin with the Datagami API (talk given at PAPIs 2014)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062710/55a143691a28ab81048b45a2/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Does it work?
Root Mean Square Error 2.58 USD
Median Absolute Error 1.04 USD
Mean Directional Error 22%