Forecasting and Its Applications- Armi Jovero
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Transcript of Forecasting and Its Applications- Armi Jovero
Forecasting and Its Applications
A Requirement of the Subject,
Quantitative Techniques in Decision Making
Submitted to:
PROF. REYNALDO AMBAOPCU Professor
Submitted by:
ARMI S. JOVERO(Master in Management, Major in Educ. Management)
Contents
I. Topic
II. Definition/s, Concepts/ Characteristics, Application, Advantages
and Disadvantages
III. Description of the Nature of Work
IV. Application
V. Conclusion and Recommendation
TOPIC
Forecasting and Its Applications
II
Definition/s, Concepts, Characteristics, Application, Advantages and Disadvantages
Forecasting Defined
Forecasting is…
the process of analyzing current and historical
data to determine future trends.
… a planning tool that helps management in its
attempts to cope with the uncertainty of the
future, relying mainly on data from the past
and present and analysis of trends.
… is the process of making statements about
events whose actual outcomes (typically)
have not yet been observed.
… is the estimation of the value of a variable (or
set of variables) at some future point in time.
Concepts/ Characteristics of Forecasting
Business forecasting refers to the analysis of past and present
economic conditions with the object of drawing inferences about
probable future business conditions. The process of making definite
estimates of future course of events is referred to as forecasting and
the figure or statements obtained from the process is known as
‘forecast’ future course of events is rarely known. In order to be
assured of coming course of events, help is taken of an organized
system of forecasting. These are two aspects of scientific business
forecasting.
Characteristics of Business Forecasting
1. Based on past and present conditions: The business forecasting is
based on past and present economic condition of the business. To
forecast the future, various data, information and facts concerning to
economic condition of business for past and present are analyzed.
2. Based on mathematical and statistical methods: The process of
forecasting includes the use of statistical and mathematical methods.
By using these methods the actual trend which may take place in
future can forecasted.
3. Period: The forecasting can be made for long term, short term,
medium term or any specific term.
4. Estimation of future: The business forecasting is to forecast the
future regarding probable economic conditions.
5.Scope: The forecasting can be physical as well as financial.
Application
Business forecasting acquires an important place in
every field of the economy. Business forecasting helps the
businessman and industrialists to form the policies and plans
related with their activities. On the basis of forecasting the
businessman can forecast the demand of the product, price
of the product, condition of the market etc. The business
decisions can also be reviewed on the basis of business
forecasting.
Where is forecasting applied?
1. In increasing profit and reduction in losses.
Every business is carried out with the purpose of
earning maximum profits, so by forecasting the future price
of the product and its demand the businessman can
predetermine the production cost, production and the level
of stock to be determined.
2. In Management decisions
The business forecasting provides us basis for
management decisions because in present time the
management has to take the decision in the atmosphere of
uncertainties. Also, the business forecasting explains the
future conditions and enables the management to select the
best alternative.
3. Useful to administration
On the basis of forecasting the government can control
the circulation of money, modify the economic, fiscal and
monetary policies to avoid the adverse effects of trade
cycles. So, with the help of forecasting the government can
control the expected fluctuations in future.
4. Basis for capital market
The business forecasting helps in estimating the
requirement of capital, position of stock exchange and the
nature of investors etc.
5. Useful in controlling the business cycles
The trade cycles cause various depressions in the
business such as sudden change in price level, increase in
the risk of business, increase in unemployment etc. By
adopting a systematic business forecasting the businessman
and government can handle and control the depression of
trade cycles.
6. To achieve the goals
The business forecasting help to achieve the objective
of business through proper planning of business activities.
7. Facilitates control
By business forecasting the tendency of black
marketing, speculation, uneconomic activities and corruption
can be controlled.
8. Utility to society
With the help of business forecasting the entire society
is also benefited because the adverse effects of fluctuations
in the conditions of business are kept under control.
Advantages and Disadvantages
Advantages:
1. Helps to Predict The Future
Forecasting does not provide you with a crystal ball to see exactly what will happen to the market and your company over the coming years, but it will help give you a general idea. This will provide you with a sense of direction which will allow your company to get the most out of the marketplace.
2. Keep Your Customers Happy
In order to keep your customers satisfied you need to provide them with the product they want when they want it. This advantage of forecasting in business will help predict product demand so that enough product is available to fulfill customer orders.
3. Learn From The Past
Looking at what has happened in the past can help companies predict what will happen in the future, thus making the company stronger and most likely more profitable.
4. Keeps Companies Looking Ahead
By forecasting on a regular basis, it forces companies to continually think about their future and where their company is headed. This will allow them to foresee changing market trends and keep up with the competition.
5. Save on Staffing Costs
One of the advantages of forecasting in business is that it allows companies to predict how much product will need to be produced to meet customer demand. From here a company can use this data to accurately determine how many employees they will need to have on hand to meet the required level of production.
6. Remain Competitive
A business that does not use forecasting techniques will likely succumb to their competition in a short time. Having a general idea of what sales to expect in the following period is very important. This will help a company prepare to meet customer demand, otherwise the customer will look to fulfill their needs elsewhere.
7. Receive Financing
In order to receive financing for new startups or to fund an existing enterprise, a forecast will need to be completed. The lender needs an estimate on the number of sales you will have within a given time period before they will consider lending out large sums of money.
8. Reduce Inventory Costs
Forecasting helps predict how much inventory should be on hand at any given time. By having the right amount of inventory, your company will be able to save on warehouse and transportation costs.
There will also be less risk of incurring obsolescence costs or having to discount products because you have a large surplus.
9. Helps Prepare for a Drop in Sales
A drop in sales is never a good thing for a company, however, this advantage of forecasting in business reveals sales drops which in turn, can be recognized and dealt with quickly.
10. Prepare for New Business
By forecasting demand, a company can see if an increase in sales is likely imminent. This will allow the company to prepare for this increase in business by providing extra staff or production facilities to meet this new level of demand.
Disadvantages:
1. The forecasting cannot be accurate because it is largely
based on future events which are not sure to exist.
2. The business forecasting is generally made by using
statistical and mathematical method. But the use of these
methods cannot claim to be able to make uncertain future
certain.
3. The underlying assumptions of business forecasting
cannot be satisfied simultaneously. In such a case the results
of forecasting will be misleading.
4. The forecasting cannot guarantee the elimination of errors
and mistakes. The managerial decision will be wrong if the
forecasting is wrong.
5. Factors responsible for economic changes are often
difficult to discover and to measure. Hence business
forecasting becomes an unnecessary exercise.
6. The business forecasting does not evaluate risks.
7. The forecasting is made on the basis of past information
and data and relies that economic events are repeated
under the same conditions. But there may be circumstances
where these conditions are not repeated.
8. Forecasting is not a continuous process while to be
effective it requires continuous attention.
III. Description of the nature of work
I have been the Head Teacher III of Mayor Gerardo Gorriceta
Sr. Memorial School, District of Pavia, for almost four years now with
8 teachers from Kindergarten to Grade VI.
I agree that the successful operation of the school requires a
competent school head. School administrators like me provide
instructional leadership and manage the day-to-day activities in the
school.
As an education administrator I have to set educational
standards and goals and establish the policies and procedures
required to achieve them. I supervise teachers. I develop academic
programs, monitor pupils’ educational progress, train and motivate
teachers, keep records in hard and soft copies, prepare budgets, and
perform many other duties. I also handle relations with parents, and
other internal and external stakeholders.
Furthermore, I have to set the academic tone and work actively
with teachers to develop and maintain high curriculum standards,
formulate the school’s mission and vision, and establish performance
goals and objectives. In line with these, I visit classrooms, observe
teaching methods, review instructional objectives, and examine
learning materials.
With the advent of School-Based Management, decision-
making authority lies on the shoulders of the school head with
collaboration from the stakeholders. The school head has greater
flexibility in setting school policies and goals, but when making
administrative decisions, I must pay attention to the concerns of
parents, teachers, pupils, and other members of the community.
IV. Application
Enhanced management of schools nowadays employs shared
Decision Making. It means ownership of decisions by a team of
stakeholders (teachers, pupils, parents, community). It is an effort to
transform conventional school organizations into pro-active Learning
Communities.
How is forecasting applied in my work as a school head?
Planning as one of the functions of a school head like me
entails forecasting of future conditions in school. Forecasting as part
of effective planning must also take into account unexpected
contingencies and making provisions for the structuring of activities,
projects and programs in the school.
To reiterate one of the meanings of forecasting as mentioned
earlier, it is a planning tool that helps management in its attempts to
cope with the uncertainty of the future, relying mainly on data from
the past and present and analysis of trends. Thus, forecasting is
fundamental in school planning.
Using the data gathered in the BEIS, EMIS and GESP with the
addition of S-A, S-E and S-Q, all of which are tools to gather data in
the different aspects of school management, the school head is
armed with the data needed in making decisions for the betterment of
the school and its stakeholders.
Increase on projected data pupil enrolment would mean
provision for needed teachers, accommodation facilities (buildings),
more classroom furniture (chairs/desks), support instructional
materials, references and the like as well as budgetary requirements
for school utilities (electric, water, telephone, internet connection).
Forecasting is also essential since it can serve as basis for
laying out the school’s 3-year and annual improvement plans as well
as its annual procurement plan, hence, collaborative efforts among
the stakeholders for the plan’s realization.
V. Conclusion and Recommendation
Using Forecasting in school management specifically in
decision making is truly important for a school administrator. With it
he/she can analysis trends in the increase or decrease of
performance indicators as to school level access, quality and
efficiency thus align activities, projects and programs and work for
the provision of needed resources (human, material, financial) to
ensure attainment of desired goals.
The maintenance of current monitoring school practices is
necessary for the continued establishment of baseline data needed to
forecast future needs.