Forecasting and Communicating AQI Hot Spots

Joseph Cassmassi & Kevin DurkeeSouth Coast Air Quality Management District

2011 National Air Quality Conferences

San Diego, CA

March 9, 2011

South Coast Air Basin:• 10,743 square miles• 16 million people• 11 million gasoline

vehicles• 300,000 diesel

vehicles

South Coast Air QualityManagement District

MDAB

SSAB

SoCAB MDAB

SCAQMD Programs that Provide Some Insight into AQI Hot Spot ForecastingRoutine Multi-Area AQI Forecasts

45 Source-Receptor AreasDaily O3, CO, NO2, PM10, PM2.5

Coachella Valley windblown dust forecasts & advisoriesPrescribed and agricultural burn forecastsResidential wood burning forecasts Emergency response forecasts and advisories

e.g., wildfires and hazardous release support Field Study Forecasting

Support of special monitoring studies and field campaigns

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Forecasts: 45 Source-Receptor Areas

MDAB

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Primary Air Quality Impact Areas

CO

PM10, PM2.5

PM2.5, NO2

O3

O3

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SCAQMD Ambient Monitoring Network

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SCAQMD Air Quality Forecast Map

AQMD Website: http://www.aqmd.gov 8

Interactive Air Quality Monitoring Map

Incorporates real-time data from stations and mobile monitors

Proxy method to extrapolate levels in unmonitored areas

Color-coded to Air Quality Index

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Advisories

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Some Recent Near-Source Monitoring ExperiencePort Studies

Community-based monitoring near Ports of Los Angeles & Long BeachAlameda Corridor Study

Near-road monitoring of goods movement route from ports CO, NOx, PM, Black Carbon, …

MATES III Multiple Air Toxics Exposure Study

Lead Monitoring Source-Specific TSP Lead

Airport Studies Large airports (LAX Study) General aviation (Van Nuys, Santa Monica, Long Beach)

Wildfire response monitoring eBAM PM2.5 portable monitors

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Thoughts on Forecasting & Communicating AQI for Hot SpotsDevelop Tools

Reliable real-time monitoring is critical, including meteorology Need visualization tools for measurement data Automate routine tasks where possible to give forecasters time to analyze

data Use models to provide forecast guidance

Need historical data for development

Develop Forecaster ConfidenceKnow your Target AudienceAvoid Conflicting Messages

Have a consistent messaging system for both ambient and near-source forecasts and alerts News media, email/EnviroFlash, web, phone aps, IVR/phone messaging, …

Keep messages simple Don’t expect detailed news coverage every day Don’t Cry Wolf

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Some IssuesNear-source monitors won’t always be in the right location

Changing meteorological conditionsEffects of buildings, sound walls, roadway turbulenceChemical reactions cause changes with distance

How do we communicate AQI near sources?Measurements will vary considerably by time of day, day of

week, traffic pattern, wind flows, stability, …Messaging may be complicatedMay need to focus AQI messaging on the population with the

worst impactResearch may need to focus on health impacts of shorter

activity-based exposure times“Tomorrow’s air quality in your area is predicted to be in the Moderate

range, but rush hour commuters and residences who will be on or near major roadways for over one hour will experience Unhealthy air quality.”

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