Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs):

A Proposed Next-Generation Hazardous Watch/Warning

ParadigmLans P. RothfuszActing Deputy DirectorNSSL

A proposed modernization of the NWS’s teletype-era, deterministic, product-centric, WWA paradigm.

A product of NOAA’s Weather Ready Nation and a means of achieving WRN goals.

An organizing framework for R2O.

FACETs is…

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Informing a Paradigm Shift

Future Warning Paradig

m

Good things we do now.

Challenges we have

now.

Trajectories of science, tools and society.

First, do no harm!

Refine, revise and/or reinvent.

Where we’re headed.

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NOAA Science/Tech Trajectories

30-minute Probability of Rotation

Warn on Forecast (WoF) Probabilistic output from storm-scale

ensembles… then what?!

MYRORSS Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely-Sensed

Storms. Real-time, storm-scale MOS. 15-year radar/RUC reanalysis. Climatology of storm-scale behaviors.Longevity, phenomena, severity, etc.

FACETs is the “delivery mechanism” for WoF-generated probabilistic output.

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FACETs Changes the Starting Point

The Method & Manner of

W/W/A

Observations & Guidance

The Forecaster

Threat Grid Tools

Useable Output

Effective Response

Verification Methods

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Facet #1: Changing the Starting Point

Facet #1: Changing the Starting Point

• Move from “binary” polygons to Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI)– Grid-based threat

probabilities.• Legacy warnings “fall out.”• New messages possible.

– Not only for tornadoes.• Winter weather, hail,

lightning, flooding, aviation, etc.

30-Minute Threat: Tornado Probability

Valid 11:00 a.m. - 11:30 a.m. MDTLast updated: 1 minute ago

“Byproduct” Tornado Warning

Proximity (Yellow)Alert??

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Facet #2: Obs & GuidanceFacet #2: Obs & Guidance

• What forecasters use to make decisions.– Radar, satellites, models, observations, other

forecasters, etc.

Observations & Guidance

2

Grid-Based Probabilistic

Threat Forecasts

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Facet #3: The ForecasterFacet #3: The Forecaster

• The person making the watch/warning decisions.– Knowledge, skills and abilities.– The human brain (wetware).

Observations & Guidance

2

The Forecaster

3

Grid-Based Probabilistic

Threat Forecasts

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Facet #4: Threat Grid ToolsFacet #4: Threat Grid Tools

• What forecasters use to create the hazard information.– Hardware & software.– Hazard Services from OAR/GSD.

Observations & Guidance

2

The Forecaster

3

Threat Grid Tools

4

Grid-Based Probabilistic

Threat Forecasts

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Facet #4: Threat Grid ToolsFacet #4: Threat Grid Tools

10

FACETs is…FACETs is…

• Multimedia, multi-point enabling.

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Facet #5: Useful OutputFacet #5: Useful Output

• What the end user sees and hears.– Graphical, textual, auditory, digital, etc.

Observations & Guidance

2

The Forecaster

3

Threat Grid Tools

4

Useful Output

5

Grid-Based Probabilistic

Threat Forecasts

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Facet #5: Useful OutputFacet #5: Useful Output

• Watches & warnings, yes.– Smaller, phenomenon-

specific areas.– User-specifiable thresholds. – Longer (non-warning) lead

time.– New opportunities for

private sector.

• Impact-focused, with new information.– Urgency, confidence, range

of possibilities, etc.

30-Minute Threat: Tornado Probability

Valid 11:00 a.m. - 11:30 a.m. MDTLast updated: 1 minute ago

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Facet #6: Effective ResponseFacet #6: Effective Response

• What the end user does.– The science/human interface.– The most important facet.– Where social/behavioral sciences pay off.

Observations & Guidance

2

The Forecaster

3

Threat Grid Tools

4

Useful Output

5

Effective Response

6

Grid-Based Probabilistic

Threat Forecasts

114

Facet #7: VerificationFacet #7: Verification

• Evaluating system effectiveness.– Measuring more than just forecast skill…– …measure the response, too!

Observations & Guidance

2

The Forecaster

3

Threat Grid Tools

4

Useful Output

5

Effective Response

6

Verification Methods

7

Grid-Based Probabilistic

Threat Forecasts

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A science-driven paradigm delivering a continuous stream of high-res, probabilistic hazard information extending from days to within minutes of event.

Optimized for user-specific decision-making through comprehensive integration of social/behavioral sciences.

FACETs is…

Integrated Social/Behavioral/Economic SciencesAdapted from Lazrus (NCAR) 16

Science and Strategic Implementation Plan (SSIP) for FACETs has been created.

SSIP Development Team (16 Members) NWS field offices (SPC, 2 WFOs) NWS HQ, WRH, WDTB, MDL and ROC OAR (NSSL and GSD) NWSEO Social Scientist State Emergency Management Weather Industry (2)

SSIP = The FACETs “Master Plan”

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June 2014 Workshop What will it take to get from present system to

FACETs?

Result: 46 distinct projects identified. 16 physical science 14 software development 23 social/behavioral/economic science 3 training and outreach (4 WRN Projects)

This will be a “heavy lift!”

SSIP = The FACETs Master Plan

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How is the modeling community preparing for a new paradigm of storm-scale, rapidly-updating, ensemble-driven probabilistic guidance for forecasters?

What will operational life look like from the perspective of the watch (SPC) and warning (WFO) forecasters in 10 years?

Will we be ready for a Warn on Forecast era?

Questions for the Audience…

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Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs)

Grid-Based Probabilistic

Threats

Observations & Guidance

The Forecaster

Threat Grid Tools

Useful Output

Effective Response

Verification Methods

Integrated Social Sciences

Lans P. RothfuszNOAA/OAR/NSSL

lans.rothfusz@noaa.gov678-665-7049