Forecast & Backcast of the 2000 Emission Inventory for the Lower Fraser Valley Airshed
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Transcript of Forecast & Backcast of the 2000 Emission Inventory for the Lower Fraser Valley Airshed
Forecast & Backcast of the 2000 Forecast & Backcast of the 2000 Emission Inventory Emission Inventory
for thefor theLower Fraser Valley AirshedLower Fraser Valley Airshed
Presentation to GB/PS Research ConferencePresentation to GB/PS Research Conference
John Newhook / Derek JennejohnJohn Newhook / Derek Jennejohn
April 1, 2003April 1, 2003
Why do we doWhy do we do Emission Inventories & Forecasts? Emission Inventories & Forecasts?
Air Quality Management is mandated to Air Quality Management is mandated to GVRD by the GVRD by the BC Waste Management ActBC Waste Management Act
Tells us where we have been (progress Tells us where we have been (progress evaluation), and where we are heading evaluation), and where we are heading
Identifies Major Sources -- AQ GoalsIdentifies Major Sources -- AQ Goals Used by AQ Modellers at Environment Used by AQ Modellers at Environment
Canada to forecast future Air QualityCanada to forecast future Air Quality Fundamental basis for an updated AQMPFundamental basis for an updated AQMP
Lower Fraser Valley AirshedLower Fraser Valley Airshed
Carbon Monoxide (CO) Emissions
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100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Em
issi
on
s (1
000
ton
nes
/ y
ear)
LFV Total
GVRD
Whatcom County
FVRD
Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Emissions
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Em
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s (1
000
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/ y
ear)
LFV Total
GVRD
Whatcom County
FVRD
Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) Emissions
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Em
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s (1
000
ton
nes
/ y
ear)
LFV Total
GVRD
Whatcom County
FVRD
Sulphur Oxides (SOx) Emissions
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5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Em
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on
s (1
000
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nes
/ y
ear)
LFV Total
GVRD
Whatcom County
FVRD
PM2.5 Emissions(including road dust)
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2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Em
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on
s (1
000
ton
nes
/ y
ear)
LFV Total
GVRD Total
Whatcom County Total
FVRD Total
Ammonia (NH3) Emissions
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5
10
15
20
25
30
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Em
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s (1
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nes
/ y
ear)
LFV Total
GVRD
Whatcom County
FVRD
““Smog-Forming Pollutants”Smog-Forming Pollutants”
8 Common Air Contaminants inventoried8 Common Air Contaminants inventoried For simplification, we added together 5 air For simplification, we added together 5 air
contaminants which contribute to ozone and contaminants which contribute to ozone and fine particulate matter formation, and to fine particulate matter formation, and to visibility impairment - SMOG.visibility impairment - SMOG.
NONOXX, SO, SOXX, VOC, PM, VOC, PM2.52.5, and NH, and NH33
Smog-Forming Pollutant Emissions by Region
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50
100
150
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250
300
350
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Em
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s (1
000
ton
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/ y
ear)
LFV Total
GVRD
Whatcom County
FVRD
Top 5 Smog-Forming Emission Sources
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5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Em
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000
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Light-Duty Vehicles
Marine
Other Nonroad Equipment
Agricultural
Solvent Evaporation
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions by Region
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5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Em
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000
ton
nes
/ y
ear)
LFV Total
GVRD
Whatcom County
FVRD
Top 3 Greenhouse Gas Emission Sources
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1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Em
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s (1
000
ton
nes
/ y
ear)
Light-Duty Vehicles
Space Heating
Electric Power Generation
Notes & ObservationsNotes & Observations
Forecast looks different than previous (1995) Forecast looks different than previous (1995) version – a little more “flat”version – a little more “flat”
Forecast does not incorporate any proposed Forecast does not incorporate any proposed measures, only those that are finalmeasures, only those that are final– Proposed federal measures to reduce nonroad and Proposed federal measures to reduce nonroad and
solvent emissions not includedsolvent emissions not included– Could include in future updateCould include in future update
Other potential emission sources not included Other potential emission sources not included here, for examplehere, for example– Sumas2, BP Cherry Point, IntalcoSumas2, BP Cherry Point, Intalco
ConclusionsConclusions
After initial decline, “Smog Forming Pollutants” After initial decline, “Smog Forming Pollutants” expected to increase after 2015expected to increase after 2015
Marine sources, followed by agriculture are Top 2 Marine sources, followed by agriculture are Top 2 “SFP” emitters after 2015“SFP” emitters after 2015
Important to ascertain the importance of NH3 in Important to ascertain the importance of NH3 in secondary PM formation – limiting reagent?secondary PM formation – limiting reagent?
GHG increasing steadily from 1990 to 42% above GHG increasing steadily from 1990 to 42% above 1990 by 2010 in GVRD/FVRD1990 by 2010 in GVRD/FVRD
Can’t be complacent – CWS & KyotoCan’t be complacent – CWS & Kyoto
Next StepsNext Steps
Forecast could be updated following:Forecast could be updated following:– Release of “Canadianized” MOBILE6 ModelRelease of “Canadianized” MOBILE6 Model– EPA release of new NONROAD model EPA release of new NONROAD model – Work with marine sector to better define activity Work with marine sector to better define activity
and emissionsand emissions– Other methodology changes, regulatory activityOther methodology changes, regulatory activity
Phase 2 Forecast could address:Phase 2 Forecast could address:– Proposed Regulations (federal, regional)Proposed Regulations (federal, regional)– Other emission reduction measuresOther emission reduction measures
Next Steps (cont’d)Next Steps (cont’d)
Forecast used by AQ modellers at Forecast used by AQ modellers at Environment Canada to forecast future air Environment Canada to forecast future air qualityquality
Continue active participation in Georgia Continue active participation in Georgia Basin / Puget Sound International Airshed Basin / Puget Sound International Airshed PartnershipPartnership
Develop Workplan for development of a new Develop Workplan for development of a new AQMPAQMP
The EndThe End
Any Questions?Any Questions?