Forces reshaping our world over the coming 20 years · Forces reshaping our world over the coming...

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Global Megatrends Forces reshaping our world over the coming 20 years

Stefan Hajkowicz, PhD

Global Megatrends More

From Less

Planetary Pushback

The Silk Highway

Forever Young

Digital Immersion

Porous Boundaries

Great Expectations

+ The Innovation Imperative

Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz

Why a Venn Diagram?

3 |

Ice Cream

Car Trip Children Use activity books and

games

Take normal

care Effective strategy not

yet identified by humankind

Use serviettes

Does the strategy perform in most/all areas of overlap?

Each area of overlap tells a unique story about the future

More from Less

Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz 5 |

More Food Demand, Less Land Area

020406080

100120140160180200

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2015

FAO

Foo

d Pr

ice

Inde

x (R

eal)

IMAGE AND DATA SOURCE: Marco Lagi, Karla Z. Bertrand, Yaneer Bar-Yam (2011) The Food Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East. Physics and Society.


More Food From Less Resources New Ways of Making Food

6 |

First taste test in London 2013 – The Burger Cost AUD$450,000. The same research team led by Professor Post estimate $80/kg today using economies of scale and cutting edge technology.

Source: Reuters: David Parry/Pool, file photo, ABC News Online

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11 1 13 0

102030405060708090

100

Energy Water Land GHGEmmisions

Perc

ent

Conventional Meat Cultured Meat

Becoda’s new food 3D printer – the Qiao

Source: http://3dprintingindustry.com/ Source: Journal of Environmental Science and Technology

More Energy, Less Resources & Less Emissions

Source: Valentin Muenzel et al (2014) The Conversation. Drawing upon data by the University of Melbourne and IBM.

“Unsubsidized rooftop solar electricity costs between $0.08-$0.13/kWh, 30-40% below retail price of electricity in many markets globally. In markets heavily dependent on coal for electricity generation, the ratio of coal based wholesale electricity to solar electricity cost was 7:1 four years ago. This ratio is now less than 2:1 and could likely approach 1:1 over the next 12-18 months”.

- Deutsche Bank, Markets Research, Feb 2015

Source: David van der Mark, Flickr

The Tesla Model S P90D accelerates 0 to 100km/hr in 2.9 seconds; faster than the Ferrari 458 Italia at 3.0 seconds. It retails for ~US$120,000 (25% of that is the battery) [source: Wikipedia, www.automoblog.net).

Source: Pixabay


Via Better Batteries


Mining Above the Ground

8 |

One tonne of ore body yields 1-5 grams of gold

One tonne of old computer circuits yields 250 grams of gold

Data Source: CSIRO News, Anna Littleboy - March 28 2014 How to create wealth from waste

Images CSIRO

Planetary Pushback

Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson 10 |

The Global Climate is Following the Long Range Forecasts The year 2015 was hottest year on record. And 2016 is off to a hot start with February being hottest February on record (1.35C hotter than long term average).

Data and image source: NASA


Deaths attributable to antimicrobial resistance every year by 2050

The Silk Highway


A Shifting World Economy

Source: Quah, 2011; Global Policy


Making Cities in 20 Years - What Took Europe 400 Years

14 |

Image source: (c) The Chinese UPLA urban planning network, http://www.upla.cn Statistic derived from analysis of the United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision Population Database

http://www.upla.cn/

The Rise of the Services Sector Transition in the Chinese Economy

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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Perc

ent o

f Val

ue A

dd to

the

Econ

omy

IndustryServicesAgriculture

Source: World Bank Indicators

Forever Young

The Ageing Population – Australia

Data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Today we’re some 14% over 65 yrs old

It will be 25% by 2050

Average Retirement Age Is on the Rise

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Australia - Males Australia - Females

As of June 2013 Australia’s entire workforce had a $727 billion shortfall for a comfortable retirement.

- Rice Warner Actuaries

Data source: OECD, Ageing and Employment Policies - Statistics on average effective age of retirement

Aver

age

Retir

emen

t Age

Aus

tral

ia, Y

ears

Longer Lives (and No Ceiling) Years at Birth, Australia


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70

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6019

6419

6819

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7619

8019

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0020

0420

0820

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MalesFemales

Data source: OECD Health Status, Life Expectancy at Birth

Jeanne Calment, who died at 122

The first person in the world to live to 150 years has already be born – according to Dr Aubrey de Grey

Life

Exp

ecta

ncy

at B

irth

in A

ustr

alia

, Yea

rs

Source: Eric Le Bourg, Ageing Research Reviews, Image: Wikipedia

Today’s youngest could have life expectancy of 105 years

At age 20 in 1885

https://data.oecd.org/healthstat/life-expectancy-at-birth.htm


Obesity Rates (most recent OECD data, defined by BMI)

Whilst the rate of growth is forecast to slow, the percentage increases. Australia is forecast to be 70% overweight and over one-third obese by 2025. Poor diets and physical inactivity are drivers of this trend.

Rising Healthcare Expenditure

Source: CSIRO DPAS Flagship

Today we spend 25

percent of all

government taxes in

Australia on

healthcare.

By the year 2043 it

will be 40 percent.

Perc

ent o

f GDP

, Aus

tral

ia

Source: AIHW health expenditure database

Digital Immersion

The Internet of Things

2006 2 Billion Devices



Data source: Intel Corporation. A Guide to the Internet of Things. Image Wikipedia

225 times more functionality

40,000 times more functionality

Metcalfe's Law Value of a network = n2

Data Volumes

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Jun2010

Dec2010

Jun2011

Dec2011

Jun2012

Dec2012

Jun2013

Dec2013

Jun2014

Dec2014

Jun2015

Thou

sand

Tera

byte

s

Terabytes of data downloaded using fixed line broadband

And we’d need another 75m to show you the 2025 forecast.

According to IBM The world creates 2.5 quintillion bytes of data daily; 90% of the data was made in the last 2 years.

Computing Speed

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illio

ns)

Moore’s Law – Number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles at same cost every 1.5 years

And then there’s quantum computing which could be 10,000 times faster …

Jury’s still out on whether D Wave 2 (second commercially available quantum computer by Google, NASA and D Wave Systems) actually works. But maybe soon?


Question: The area of lilly pad doubles every day. It takes 19 days for the pond to be half-covered. On what

day is the pond completely covered?

Image: Pixabay

27 |

0

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200,000

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Pond

Cov

erag

e (S

quar

e M

etre

s)

Answer: On day 20 (one day later) the pond is covered.

Frog Doesn’t Know Anything is Happening Yet

Frog Suspects

Something Happening

Frog realises what’s

happening & tries to respond

50% Coverage

Image: Pixabay

100% Coverage

What Jobs do People Get?

After seven years of effort by scientists from UC Berkeley a robot can fold a towel in … 20 mins.

The Berkeley Robot for the Elimination of Tedious Task (Brett) by Prof Abbeel at UC Berkley. Image source: Youtube

Photographers Versus Lab Staff

ABS (2015). 6291.0.55.001 - Labour Force, Australia, Detailed. Canberra, Australian Bureau of Statistics.

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Empl

oym

ent (

'000

s)

Australian Photographic Industry

PhotographersDevelopers/printers

Porous Boundaries

Ronald Coase Ronald Coase working in 2003. Photo taken at and by University of Chicago Law School. Wikipedia.

The New Platform Economies

GLG


New Uber Drivers in the United States

A study by Uber Technologies and Princeton University, published 2016

Great Expectations


Cybercrime, Privacy Concerns, Intrusive

Marketing, Information

Overload, Online Burnout

.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Sk7cOqB9Dk

Google Analytics – In Real Life Online Checkout




Is it really just C8H10N4O2

The Innovation Imperative Now is the time to rattle the cage, experiment with new business models, invest in ideas & rethink organisational structure because… … Elephants must learn to dance.

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Prod

uctiv

ity In

dex

Twenty Years of Productivity in Australia Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics “…In the long term

it’s everything”

- Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize Laureate, Economics

Image: Paul Krugman Speaks to the Commonwealth Club of San Francisco, May 2012. Photo on Flickr and taken by Ed Ritger.


The Innovator’s Dilemma World Economic Forum via Flickr. Zanny Minton Beddoes interviews Clayton Christensen

Working Smarter, Not Working Harder In a high tech digitally enabled economy its about working smarter not harder

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Labo

ur P

rodu

ctiv

ity (U

SD o

f GDP

Pe

r Hou

r Wor

ked,

Cur

rent

Pric

es)

Average Hours Worked Per Person Per Week

R2 = 0.65

Data Source: OECD Statistics, Labour productivity levels in the total economy, Data for 34 OECD Countries

Experiments in Sweden, reducing the work week from 6 to 8 hours tested by:

• Svartedalens elderly care home

• Internet startup, Brath

• Filimundus App Developer

• Stockholm city council

• Toyota service centre in Gothenburg

Sweden

Norway

Australia

Stockholm, Pixabay

Strategic Foresight @ Data61 | CSIRO We combine research excellence with business relevance. We analyse trends, risks and scenarios with a focus on the digital economy. We do decision analysis. We help organisations make wise strategic choices and achieve their objectives. We live in Brisbane but we travel the world …

… (and we try to get home in time for dinner).

www.csiro.au

Data61 Dr Stefan Hajkowicz Senior Principal Research Scientist t +61 7 3833 5540 e [email protected]

Thank you

Forces reshaping our world over the coming 20 years · Forces reshaping our world over the coming...

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