for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc...

39
Annual financial results for the year ended December 2010

Transcript of for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc...

Page 1: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Annual financial results for the year ended December 2010

Page 2: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

OverviewNonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita,

CEO

Page 3: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Highlights for the year

333

• Exceptional safety year – no fatalities and LTIFR at record lows

• Headline earnings of R1 377m (R440m – loss) : 343 cents per share (104cps – loss)

• 12% (6%) EBITDA margin

• Capacity utilisation increased to 71% (66%)

• Steel sales increased by 13% with domestic sales higher by 11% and exports by 16%

• Liquid steel output up 7%

• Cost of steel sales down by 2.5%, despite raw material costs increasing

• Capital expenditure almost doubled to R1.7 billion with approximately 30% directed at safety and environmental initiatives

• 80% of the social expenditure budget directed at education

Page 4: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Key Result Drivers

444

2010 vs 2009Q4’10 vs Q3’10

Flat carbon steel product prices -5% +16%

Long carbon steel product prices -9% +21%

Liquid steel production -16% +7%

Total sales volume +5% +13%

Export sales volume +83% +16%

Domestic sales volume -22% +11%

HRC Rand cash cost per tonne -1% +4%

Billet Rand cash cost per tonne +3% +5%

Labour productivity +15% +7%

ZAR movement (average rate) +5% +13%

Page 5: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Steel Market Overview

Page 6: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Global Economy

• World economic growth in 2010 increased to 3.9% from -2.2% in 2009 while growth of 3.3% is expected in 2011

• Emerging market economies grew by 7% in 2010 (2009 = 2.5%) while growth is expected to slow to a still respectable 6% in 2011

• Chinese economy surged by 10% in 2010 compared to 9.1% in 2009, while a growth rate of 8.7% is forecast for 2011

• Sub-Saharan African growth rate of 5.3% expected for 2011 from 4.7% in 2010 and 3.4% from 3% for South Africa

• ArcelorMittal South Africa forecast a GDP growth rate of 3.3% for 2011

66Sources: IMF, World Bank, WorldSteel

Page 7: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Global Steel Market Trends

• 2010 world steel output increased by 15% to 1 395mt, although H2’10 slowed by 2.7% relative to H1’10

• Production in EU expanded by 24%, North America by 36% and Japan by 25% (H2’10 vs H1’10 were: -7%, -1% and +1% respectively)

• Africa’s steel production increased by 16% to 17.2mt and growth was maintained at +8% in the second half

• China’s production was up 9% to 627mt accounting for 44% of global output (H2’10 contracted by 6% relative to H1’10)

• Q4 global capacity utilisation level was at 74% compared to 2010 average of 77% (2009 = 73%)

7Sources: World Steel

Page 8: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Input Cost Trends

• International iron ore prices increased by 82% (62% Fe) from 2009, while pellet prices increased by 105%

• International spot coking coal prices increased by 46% in 2010 to $215 while current spot prices are above $300/t

• The domestic coal price index (API4) rose by 42%

• 2010 scrap prices increased on average by 32% relative to 2009 and has since year end increased to US$480/t

• Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010

• Crude oil added 29% during 2010 to average US$80/barrel and has since year end added another US$20/barrel (+25%)

88Sources: Platts Steel Market Daily, Argus Coal Daily, Metal Bulletin, Tex Report and ArcelorMittal South Africa

Page 9: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Global Environment – Benchmark Prices

99

Coking coalIron ore lump Scrap (Tex)Sources: AME

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

2004 2009

Page 10: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Input Cost Positioning

10

2010 000tBackward integrated

Domestic supply Imported

Iron ore 7,500 98% 2% 0%

Pellets 450 0% 0% 100%

Scrap 920 57%* 43% 0%

Met coal 3,700 8% 45% 47%

Other coal 1,700 0% 100% 0%

Total 14,270 57% 28% 15%

*Internally generated

Page 11: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Global Environment – Export Prices(quarterly average export prices (c&f))

11

LCWR (US$/t) HRC(US$/t)Source : ArcelorMittal South Africa

Page 12: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Total Domestic Market – Shipments

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

1212

Flat (000t)Long (000t)Source : SAISI up to Q3’08, thereafter ArcelorMittal South Africa estimates

1973-1976Construction of Arnot, Kriel & Hendrina power stations as well as Sishen-Saldanha railway line

1979-1983Construction of Duvha, Koeberg & Matla power stations as well as Bloukrans bridge, Mossgas and Secunda

1988-1991Construction of Majuba, Kendal, Mtimba & Tutuka power stations and extensions to Rietvlei dam

2006-2009World cup infrastructure, Gautrain, TCTA pipeline and Eskom OCTG plants

• Average annual growth in shipments since 1969 = +0.8%paAverage annual sales since 1969 = 4.0mtpa (40% of installed South African steel making capacity)• Average annual growth in shipments since 1994 = +0.5%paAverage annual sales since 1994 = 4.2mtpa (43% of installed South African steel making capacity)

AMSA share of local dispatches:

2005 = 71% 2006 = 71%2007 = 74%2008 = 73%2009 = 75%2010 = 73%

AMSA share of local dispatches:

2005 = 71% 2006 = 71%2007 = 74%2008 = 73%2009 = 75%2010 = 73%

Page 13: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Domestic Market – Consumption by major sector

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

3.9mt 4.6mt 4.5mt 6.1mt 5.7mt 6.0mt 4.6mt 4.9mt

64% 65% 65% 65% 67% 67% 66% 65%

14%

14% 14%

15%15% 15%

15%15%

12%

13% 12%

13%12%

11%

11%10%

10%

8% 8%

7%6%

7%

9%10%

1313

Automotive & assemblySource : SAISI up to Q3’08, thereafter ArcelorMittal South Africa estimates

Construction Mining & Agriculture Metal products

Page 14: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Domestic Market – Inventory Levels

0

4

8

12

16

20

0

500

1,000

1,500

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

1414

Stocks (000t) Week’s despatchesSource : SAISI up to Q3’08, thereafter ArcelorMittal South Africa estimates

Page 15: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Domestic Market – Imports

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

24%

0

400

800

1,200

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

1515

Imports (t) % of consumptionSource : SAISI up to Q3’08, thereafter ArcelorMittal South Africa estimates

1973-1976Coincided with projects listed on shipment slide with specialty steel needs being imported

1979-1983Coincided with projects listed on shipment slide with specialty steel needs being imported

2006-2008Lack of hot metal prompted imports of semi’s when both AMSA and HVL upgraded / renewed furnaces

1993-1999Erection of chemical plants by Sasol mainly at Secunda using imported specialty steels

2010Availability of steel •iron ore dispute•customers on allocation•force majeure on railAided by strong ZAR

Page 16: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Operating Results

Page 17: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Safety - Journey to Zero

Very good year with zero fatalities

• Annual record with LTIFR of 1.64

• Previous best was 2.20

• 38% improvement compared to 2009

• 14% improvement on target of 1.90

Good safety performance overall

• Vanderbijlpark Works new record at 1.45

• Newcastle Works at 1.26 (record 1.25)

• Strong focused effort to embed adherence to all fatality prevention standards

1717

0

1

2

3

4

5

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate(Employees and Contractors)

Page 18: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Liquid Steel Production (000t) & Capacity Utilisation (%)

18

48634231 4084

34283814

2192 21441690 1879 1860

70556375

57745307

5674

94%

79% 74%

60%67%

97% 95%74%

82% 81%

95%

83%

74%

66%71%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

18

Flat carbon steel products

Long carbon steel products

Total

Page 19: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Shipment Volumes (000t)

1919

2,969 2,887 2,835

2,078 2,336

1,431 1,535 1,540994 1,078

4,400 4,422 4,375

3,0723,414

1,3111,033

577

780

1,012

499 364 137621 615

1,8101,397

714

1,401

1,6274,280

3,920

3,412

2,858

3,348

1,930 1,8991,677 1,615 1,693

6,210

5,819

5,089

4,473

5,041

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Flat carbon steel products

Long carbon steel products

Total

Domestic Exports

Page 20: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Geographic Shipments

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Other

Total Africa

Rest of Africa

South Africa

12%

88%

12%

76%

6%

94%

8%

86%

10%

90%

21%

69%

11%

89%

21%

68%

20

2007 2008 2009 2010

Page 21: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Safety 78 137

Growth 70 154

Environment 293 331

Sustainable maintenance 474 1 092

Total expenditure 915 1 714

Investment Program (Rm)

2121

20102009

Page 22: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Environmental Investment Program

2222

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20102011 -2015

Environmental R42m R23m R30m R218m R281m R299m R3 000m

Enviro Legacy R309m R79m R93m R3m R12m R32m R35m

Large projects • ZED VDBP Infrastructure

• Product separation

dust extraction

VDBP

• Emergency dams VDBP

• New ambient air

quality station VDBP

• Reduce sinter plant emissions

VDBP

• Waste Disposal

Site (WDS) prep VDBP• Dam 10

clean up VDBP

• Upgrade of WDS

• Ground water study VDBP

• Fugitive dust suppression

• Beneficiation plant rebuild

• Maturation ponds VDBP

• Dam 10 and 1 to 4

rehab VDBP

• New coke storage

area VDBP

• Remed of Dam 10 VDBP• New & old

WDS activities VDBP

• Comm coke oven clean

gas & water project VDBP

• Storm water improvemnts• VRN dust

extraction

• Remediation projects

• Air Quality Act related

improvemnts• ESM de-dusting

VDBP• Sinter clean gas

at VDBP• Newcastle

desulphur project• Newcastle ZED

Important milestones

• Became ZED at VDBP

• Reduce water intake

by 40% at VDBP

• Reduced the dust

emissions by 45% from

VDBP

• Shut down of coke bat

#1 at VDBP

• Reduced total SO2 by 35% at

VDBP• Cease use of

all unlined facilities at

VDBP

• Reduce total dust emissions

by another 30% at VDBP

Page 23: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

FinanceRudolph Torlage

CFO

Page 24: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Headline Earnings(Rm)

242424

20102009

Revenue 25 598 30 224Profit from operations 229 2 151Finance and investment income 202 71Losses on forex and financial instruments -813 -150Finance costs -276 -357Tax -35 -492Equity earnings* 206 122Net deficit on disposal / scrapping of assets* 21 32Impairment* 26Headline earnings/(loss) -440 1 377- in US$m -52 188

*After tax

Page 25: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

EBITDA from Segments (Rm)

252525

20102009

Flat carbon steel products 381 1 442

Long carbon steel products 591 1 090

Coke & Chemicals 556 1 029

Corporate & other 19 -39

Total EBITDA 1 547 3 522

EBITDA margin 6% 12%

Page 26: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Main Cost Drivers (R/t)

262626

20102009

Iron ore & pellets 637 886 17%

Scrap / DRI / HBI 223 212 4%

Coking coal & other fuels 1 597 1 456 28%

Energy 305 386 8%

Manpower 607 606 12%

Maintenance 295 336 7%

Other 1 201 1 250 24%

Total 4 865 5 132 100%

Weight

Page 27: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Cash Flow (Rm)

272727

Cash generated from operations 1 290 3 833Working capital 2 878 -1 100Capex -914 -1 714Net interest and Investment income 168 112Investments -524 -120Tax -934 -653Dividends -1 627 -602 Repayment of borrowings and finance lease -157 -499Net cash flow 189 -743Repurchase of share -3 918Effect of forex rate changes on cash -352 -99 Net cash flow after capital reduction -4 081 -842Cash 4 348 3 506

20102009

Page 28: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Working Capital Movement (Rm)

282828

Inventories 2 903 -1 544Finished products -40 -524

Work-in-progress 1 083 -106

Raw materials 1 851 -875

Plant spares & stores 9 -39

Receivables -18 303

Payables 112 524

Utilisation of provisions -119 -383

Working capital movement 2 878 -1 100

20102009

Page 29: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Financial Ratios

292929

Operating margin 1% 7%

EBITDA margin 6% 12%

Revenue / invested capital (times) 1.1 1.3

Return on equity -2% 6%

Net cash / equity 18% 14%

20102009

Page 30: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Quarterly Headline Earnings Trend (Rm)

3030

Page 31: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Share Performance

3131

ALSI Resources 20ArcelorMittal South Africa

Period Jan 2006 to Dec 2010Average Dividend Yield at 4.9% (excl cap red) – 1.8X the marketAverage Price Earnings ratio of 22.3X – 150% of the market

Index

(Jan

uary

2006

= 10

0)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Page 32: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Dividend

• Dividend policy

• Distributing one third of headline earnings every six months

• Dividends

• Interim dividend declared and paid of 150cps

• No final dividend

323232

Page 33: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Investment Program and other developments

Nonkululeko Nyembezi-Heita

Page 34: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Investment Program

• Energy projects

• Environmental projects will continue to receive priority attention

• De-sulphurisation project

• Air Quality Act

• Reduction of carbon emissions

3434

Page 35: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Additional Focus Areas

• Kumba arbitration

• ICT acquisition

• B-BBEE transaction

• Interministerial task team

• Competition matters

3535

Page 36: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Corporate Social Responsibility

• Education accounts for 80% of the spend

• 3 000 pupils attend science centers in the Vaal Triangle and Saldanha; Newcastle centre due to open during 2011

• Continuation of school building program of R250m

• Social development ~ Impilo Social Grant disbursed R1,5m during 2010

• Community upliftment

• Five houses built and 2 200 re-roofed in Vaal Triangle

• Health

• NGOs involved with HIV/Aids related programs

• TB/ARV health centre is under construction in Sebokeng Hospital

363636

Page 37: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Outlook

Page 38: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Outlook for Q1’11

• Business environment

• Domestic demand expected to improve

• Increase production to meet higher demand although long products will be negatively impacted by production losses in Newcastle

• Selling prices higher

• Negative impact of higher raw material prices, mainly scrap

• Earnings

• Substantial improvement compared to Q4 2010

• Impacted by Rand/US Dollar exchange rate movements

3838

Page 39: for the year ended December 2010 - ArcelorMittal · • Base metals and alloys such as tin, zinc and ferro-manganese increased by 50%, 31% and 23% respectively during 2010 • Crude

Thank you

ArcelorMittal South Africa LimitedRoom N3-5

Main buildingDelfos Boulevard

Vanderbijlpark 1911South Africa

www.arcelormittal.com/southafrica