For personal use only - ASX2013/08/14 · Current share price(7 August 2013) AUD$0.16 Market...
Transcript of For personal use only - ASX2013/08/14 · Current share price(7 August 2013) AUD$0.16 Market...
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Disclaimer and Forward Looking Statements
This document has been prepared by Lonestar in connection with providing an overview to interested analysts / investors.
This announcement is not intended as and shall not constitute an offer, invitation, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities in any jurisdiction and should not be relied upon as a representation of any matter that a potential investor should consider in evaluating Lonestar.
Lonestar, nor any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, directors, agents, officers, advisers or employees, make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to or endorsement of, the accuracy or completeness of any information, statements, representations or forecasts contained in this announcement, and they do not accept any liability or responsibility for any statement made in, or omitted from, this announcement. Amadeus and Lonestar accept no obligation to correct or update anything in this announcement, except as required by law. No responsibility or liability is accepted and any and all responsibility and liability is expressly disclaimed by Lonestar and its respective affiliates, subsidiaries, directors, agents, officers, advisers and employees for any errors, misstatements, misrepresentations in or omissions from this announcement.
Users of this information should make their own independent evaluation of an investment in or provision of debt facilities to Amadeus and Lonestar. Nothing in this announcement should be construed as financial product advice, whether personal or general, for the purposes of section 766B of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This announcement does not involve or imply a recommendation or a statement of opinion in respect of whether to buy, sell or hold a financial product. This announcement does not take into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any person, and independent personal advice should be obtained.
This announcement and its contents may not be reproduced or re‐distributed in any way without the express written permission of Amadeus and Lonestar.
Lonestar has presented petroleum and natural gas production and reserve volumes in barrel of oil equivalent (“boe”) amounts. For purposes of computing such units, a conversion rate of 6,000 cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel of oil equivalent (6:1) is used. The conversion ratio of 6:1 is based on an energy equivalency conversion method which is primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent value equivalence at the wellhead. Readers are cautioned that boe figures may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation.
Forward Looking Statements
Statements in this announcement reflect management's expectations relating to, among other things, target dates, Amadeus‘ and Lonestar’s expected drilling program and the ability to fund development are forward‐looking statements, and can generally be identified by words such as "will", "expects", "intends", "believes", "estimates", "anticipates” or similar expressions. In addition, any statements that refer to expectations, projections or other characterizations of future events or circumstances are forward‐looking statements. Statements relating to “reserves” are deemed to be forward‐looking statements as they involve the implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions that some or all of the reserves described can be profitably produced in the future. These statements are not historical facts but instead represent management's expectations, estimates and projections regarding future events.
Although management believes the expectations reflected in such forward‐looking statements are reasonable, forward‐looking statements are based on the opinions, assumptions and estimates of management at the date the statements are made, and are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those projected in the forward‐looking statements. These factors include risks related to: exploration, development and production; oil and gas prices, markets and marketing; acquisitions and dispositions; competition; additional funding requirements; reserve estimates being inherently uncertain; incorrect assessments of the value of acquisitions and exploration and development programs; environmental concerns; availability of, and access to, drilling equipment; reliance on key personnel; title to assets; expiration of licences and leases; credit risk; hedging activities; litigation; government policy and legislative changes; unforeseen expenses; negative operating cash flow; contractual risk; and management of growth. In addition, if any of the assumptions or estimates made by management prove to be incorrect, actual results and developments are likely to differ, and may differ materially, from those expressed or implied by the forward‐looking statements contained in this document. Such assumptions include, but are not limited to, general economic, market and business conditions and corporate strategy. Accordingly, investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such statements.
All of the forward‐looking information in this announcement is expressly qualified by these cautionary statements. Forward‐looking information contained herein is made as of the date of this document and Lonestar disclaim any obligation to update any forward‐looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events or results or otherwise, except as required by law.F
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Lonestar Resources: Corporate Summary
ASX code LNR
Ordinary shares on issue 697m
Current share price (7 August 2013) AUD$0.16
Market Capitalization US$100 mm
Net Debt US$92 mm
Enterprise Value US$192 mm
EWPO 53.5%
Lonestar Management 5.7%
Wyllie Group Pty Ltd 5.4%
CVC Limited 2.0%
Adam Smith Asset Management 1.7%
Renaissance 1.5%
Berkinfest SA 1.0%
Craig Coleman Chairman
Frank D. Bracken, III Managing Director
Bernard Lambilliotte Non‐Executive Director
Chris Rowland, PhD Non‐Executive Director
Robert Scott Non‐Executive Director
Pro forma capital Structure
Board of DirectorsMajor Shareholders
Share Price / Volume History
1. Source: IRESS. Company disclosure
$0.000
$0.025
$0.050
$0.075
$0.100
$0.125
$0.150
$0.175
$0.200
$0.225
Jan‐13 Feb‐13 Mar‐13 Apr‐13 May‐13 Jun‐13 Jul‐13 Aug‐13
LNR ‐D
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Merger between Lonestar and Amadeus completed January 2nd, 2013
• Amadeus‐ long‐lived oil production, with free cash flow
• Lonestar‐ high‐growth, operated business plan focused in the Eagle Ford, with a substantial backlog of drilling and acquisition inventory
Significant Portfolio Focused On Unconventional Oil
Fort Worth
Unconventional Assets
Conventional Assets
LEGEND
EAGLE FORD SHALE
BAKKEN‐THREE FORKS
1. As June 30, 2013, PV-10 is net present value of future net revenue, after deductions for operating and capital expenses, production taxes and ad valorem taxes, but before corporate income tax and corporate overheads, using a real, pre-tax discount rate of 10%
Geographic split of Proved reserves 1
Hydrocarbon split of Proved Reserves 1
Natural Gas16.3 Bcf
Crude Oil & NGL’s14.1 MMBBLS
Conventional4.1 MMBOE
Eagle Ford Shale12.7 MMBOE
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Summary of Investment Considerations
A Significant New Oil & Gas Company Listed on The ASX… Merger of Lonestar Resources and Amadeus Energy, Ltd completed January 2nd, 2013
Market capitalization of $100 million 1
Total Enterprise Value of $192 million 1
…With A Robust Asset Value Underpinned By Proved Reserves Proved reserves of 16.8 MMBOE2
Proved PV‐10 of $365.6 million2
CY12 EBITDAX of US$26‐29 million3, CY13 EBITDAX of US$63‐$75 million3
Significant, Self‐funded, Organic Growth In Production & Cash Flow From Existing Assets ~60 net horizontal drilling locations in inventory in Eagle Ford Shale planned for drilling over next 4 years Asherton and Gonzo have potential to yield substantial increase in oil reserves in CY13‐CY14
U.S.‐based management team with significant operating experience and a track record of growth Management’s members have track records of growth in value and liquidity events at successful U.S. publicly traded Energy
companies Have more than doubled reserves and more than tripled PV‐10 in less than two years.
Focus on Increasing Leasehold In the Eagle Ford Shale Crude Oil Window Fully integrated operating team with high‐margin Crude Oil Window expertise Evaluating several additional leasehold opportunities in the Eagle Ford Shale
1. Assumes current share price of A$0.16 applied to 697m shares2. As at June 30, 2013. PV-10 is net present value of future net revenue, after deductions for operating and capital expenses, production taxes and ad valorem taxes, but before corporate income tax and corporate overheads, using a
real, pre-tax discount rate of 10%.3. See Appendix for assumptions
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Frank D. Bracken, IIIManaging DirectorChief Executive Officer
Over 27 years experience in oil and gas finance Previously Managing Director at Jefferies & Co., Inc., where he led >$5 billion in oil and gas transactions Former CFO / Board Member of Gerrity Oil & Gas Corp, a NYSE‐listed E&P Company
Allen W. PaschalPresident Co‐founder of Lonestar Resources’ predecessor company
Over 34 years experience in senior management positions Long track record of building / monetising companies in combination with major private investors / private equity
Tom H. OlleSenior Vice President –Operations
Over 36 years oil and gas industry experience Senior level expertise in reservoir management / project development across a broad array of reservoir types Previous senior roles at US public companies Encore Acquisition Corp and Burlington Resources
Scott E. SabatkaVice President – Geosciences
Over 34 years US / international exploration and development experience, including in the Texas Gulf Coast, Permian, Williston, Powder and Malay Basins Previously Director of Geosciences at Approach Resources (NASDAQ‐listed company $942 MM market cap), Northern Region Geoscience Manager at Encore Acquisition Corp, and a Sr. Staff Geologist for Exxon
Doug W. BanisterChief Accounting Officer
CPA with 28 years experience in finance, planning and business development Prior experience with international companies such as Uniden, LSG Sky Chefs, and Ernst & Young Most recently, VP/Controller at onTargetJobs.com
Joe YoungManager‐ Drilling & Completions
Engineer with 13 years of experience in drilling and completions Positions of Increasing Responsibility at Schlumberger Drilling and Completions Engineer at Pioneer Natural Resources in Eagle Ford Shale and Wolfcamp Shale plays
Tracy HindmanManager‐Field Logistics
Over 31 years of oil and gas service experience 16 years of turnkey drilling experience‐ Service Drilling, Southeast, LLC Most recently‐ General Manager‐ Gulf Coast Division of Unit Drilling Texas
Rod HicksManager – Field Operations
Over 33 years of oil and gas drilling, completion and operations experience Held positions of increasing responsibility at Kerr‐McGee, Encore Acquisition Corp, and Quantum Resources
Management Team BiographiesF
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A Track Record of Rapid Growth
Lonestar has achieved rapid growth in terms of acreage position, reserves and production1P Reserves1
EBITDA and Production Projections
Net acreage
1P PV‐102
1. Reserves as of June 30th 20132. PV-10 is the net present value of future net revenue, after deductions for operating and capital expenses, production taxes and ad valorem taxes, but before corporate income tax and corporate overheads, using a real, pre-tax
discount rate of 10%.
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Ba rnett EFSA MU
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Barnett Eagle Ford Conventional Bakken
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Eagle Ford Growth Strategy
Lonestar Focuses On The Crude Oil Window In the Eagle Ford Shale Highest Margins Per BOE in the play
Current Revenue Mix‐ 91% crude oil / 4% NGL’s / 5% natural gas ~$77.00 per BOE 1
Extremely High EBITDA Margins‐ ~$67.00 per BOE 1
Among Lowest Well Costs in the play Lonestar’s recently completed wells range from $5.5 to $6.0 MM for 5,000’ to 6,000’ laterals Reduced mechanical risk vs. deeper, higher pressured Condensate Window
Operating Team with Expertise and Focus Pioneered 500‐foot well spacing All wells pad‐drilled Choke management
Current Inventory Expected to Yield Organic, Self‐Funded Growth Lonestar has built an inventory of >6,400 net acres = 60 net operated Eagle Ford Shale locations
Lonestar plans to drill 12‐15 Eagle Ford Shale wells annually through 2016
Spend <$4 million annually on Drilling, Workovers and Recompletions to attempt to maintain production on Conventional Assets
Execution of this plan would Increase EBITDAX from $63‐75 mm in 2013 to $120‐135 mm in 20152
Long‐Term Plan‐ Increase Eagle Ford Leasehold Position To Extend And Accelerate Growth Rate 17 million acres was leased in Eagle Ford play, mostly in 2010 & 2011, on 3‐year terms Industry activity been insufficient to hold all leases by production, lease expiration is accelerating Lonestar seeks to capitalize on increased availability of leasehold, Eagle Ford properties via re‐lease, top‐lease, purchase
and/or farm‐in Continue to focus on deep Crude Oil / Shallow Condensate Window for Additional Acreage Build ‘Operating Hubs’ around Existing Leasehold Positions at achieve economies and maintain attractiveness to a
Corporate Buyer1 Average through six months ended June 30, 20132 Based on current drilling plans, subject to change
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Eagle Ford Leasehold Position
AshertonOperator LonestarGross acres 690Net acres 670WI 97.0%Royalty 24.0 %
Beall Ranch
Gonzo
Operator LonestarGross acres 2,373Net acres 2,318WI 97.7%Royalty 25.0%
Operator LonestarGross acres 3,365Net acres 3,365WI 100.0%Royalty 24.1 %
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WI% 97.7%
Royalty% 25.0%
How Acquired Purchase of Working Interest
Operator Lonestar Resources, Inc.
Gross Acres 2,373
Net Acres 2,318
Reserves1 1P: 10.5 mmboe (86% liquids) 2P: 10.5mmboe
PV‐101 1P Reserves: US$ 238.0 million
RecentProduction
Net 1,235 boepd from 9 wells (2Q13)
DrillingSchedule 2
26 drilling locations remaining‒ 2013: 6 wells (shut‐in, awaiting flowback)‒ 2014: 6 wells‒ 2015: 6 wells
Comments Lonestar pioneered 500‐foot spacing at Beall Ranch in February 2011
Pad drilling Zipper fracs Internal estimate of capex per well US$6.6 million
Eagle Ford Shale ‐ Beall Ranch
Leasehold and activity map
1. Estimates from internal engineering, roll-forward of W.D. Von Gonten & Co., as of June 30, 2013. PV-10 is the net present value of future net revenue, after deductions for operating and capital expenses, production taxes and ad valorem taxes, but before corporate income tax and corporate overheads, using a real, pre-tax discount rate of 10%, proforma the Beall Ranch acquisitions.
2. Drilling schedule and estimates of capex per well based on current Lonestar estimates, which are subject to change in industry conditions.
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Eagle Ford Shale ‐ Beall Ranch
Production Type Curve1
Net Cash Flow Profile1
Leasehold Map and Drilling Locations
Capital and Reserves Information‐ Per Well1
1. Internal estimates of capital costs. Reserve estimates, production type curves and net cash flow from W.D. Von Gonten & Co., as of December 31, 2012 for 5,000’ lateral
Capital Costs ($MM)Drilling $2.5Completion $4.1Total Completed Well Costs $6.6
Oil NGLs Gas TotalReserves MBO MBOE MMCFG MBOEGross 376 80 751 581Net of Royalty 282 60 518 428
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30-Day Max Production Rates:Liquids - 592 BopdGas - 976 Mcfgpd
-$8.0-$6.0-$4.0-$2.0$0.0$2.0$4.0$6.0$8.0
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NPV10: $9.0mm
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Beall Ranch‐ Development Process = Progress
Impact of Bigger Fracs On ProductionLeasehold Map Development Progress
Onstream- May, 2011Lateral Length- 5,122’Proppant- 4.9 MM# ( 961#/ft)Well Costs- $8.8 MMMax 30 Day- 367 bopd
AB
Onstream- May, 2012Lateral Length- 5,209’Proppant- 6.8 MM# (1,316 #/ft)Well Costs- $7.4 MMMax 30 Day- 482 bopd
C
Onstream- July, 2012Lateral Length- 5,301’Proppant- 7.5 MM# (1,409 #/ft)Well Costs- $7.4 MMMax 30 Day- 508 bopd
DOnstream- DrillingLateral Length- 5,923’Proppant- 8.0 MM# (1,409 #/ft)Well Costs- $6.6 MMMax 30 Day- TBD
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WI% 97.0%
Royalty% 24.5%
How Acquired Purchased core acreage out of bankruptcy, added on additional acreage through primary lease
Operator Lonestar Resources, Inc.
Gross Acres 690
Net Acres 670
Reserves1 1P: 2.2 mmboe (81% liquids) 2P: 2.8 mmboe
RecentProduction
#6HS‐ 459 BOEPD 30‐day Max IP #2HN‐ 454 BOEPD 30‐day Max IP
DrillingSchedule2
8 drilling locations remaining‒ 2013: 3 wells‒ 2014: 3 wells‒ 2015: 2 wells
Comments2 Excellent access to roads, pipelines Anadarko and Chesapeake are actively permitting and drilling offsets to the south and east
Recent wells completed for US$5.5 million
Eagle Ford Shale ‐ Asherton
1. Reserves are from W.D. Von Gonten & Co. engineering estimates, as of June 30, 2013.2. Drilling schedule and capex per well based on current Lonestar estimates, which are subject to change in industry conditions.
Leasehold and activity map
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Eagle Ford Shale ‐ Asherton
Production Type Curve1
Net Cash Flow Profile1
Leasehold Map and Drilling Locations
Capital and Reserves Information‐ Per Well1
1. Internal estimates of capital costs. Reserves estimates, production type curves and net cash flow are from W.D Von Gonten & Co., as of June 30, 2013.
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NPV10: $6.2mm
#2H-N
#6H-S
Capital Costs ($MM)Drilling $1.7Completion $3.8Total Completed Well Costs $5.5
Oil NGLs Gas TotalReserves MBO MBOE MMCFG MBOEGross 262 61 759 449Net of Royalty 195 45 341 298
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30-Day Max Production Rates:Liquids- 410 BoepdGas - 608 Mcfgpd
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WI% 100.0%
Royalty% 24.1%
How Acquired Primary Term Leases, Acquisitions, Top Leases
Operator Lonestar Resources, Inc.
Gross Acres 3,365
Net Acres 3,365
Reserves Expected to be submitted at fiscal year end 2013
PV‐101 Expected bookings in 2013
DrillingSchedule1
25 drilling locations remaining‒ 2013: 2 wells‒ 2014: 3 wells‒ 2015: 6 wells
Comments1 Acquired in multiple transactions with original leases on primary terms, recently contracted to add 623 net acres
Offset by Forest Oil’s Holmes #1H (30‐day IP > 500 bopd, 114,000 bbls produced to date)
Gonzo A‐3H drilled and completed Gonzo B‐1H‐ currently drilling Internal estimate of capex per well US$5.9 million
Eagle Ford Shale ‐ Gonzo
1. Drilling schedule and capex per well based on current Lonestar estimates, which are subject to change in industry conditions.
Leasehold and activity map
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Eagle Ford Shale ‐ Gonzo
Production Type Curve1
Net Cash Flow Profile1
Leasehold Map and Drilling Locations
Capital and Reserves Information‐ Per Well1
1. Internal estimates of capital costs. Reserve estimates, production type curves and net cash flow are from internal engineering estimates
Capital Costs ($MM)Drilling $2.0Completion $3.9Total Completed Well Costs $5.9
Oil NGLs Gas TotalReserves MBO MBOE MMCFG MBOEGross 246 14 149 285Net of Royalty 185 11 99 212
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30-Day Max Production Rates:Liquids- 526 BopdGas - 217 Mcfgpd
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NPV10: $5.0mm
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Eagle Ford Shale Conventional Barnett Shale Net Eagle Ford Producers
Eagle Ford Shale Drilling‐ Engine For GrowthF
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West Texas
North Texas
South Texas
Conventional Assets
4.1 MMBOE‐ Proved Reserves 79% Crude Oil
24% of Lonestar’s Total Proved Reserves
789 BOEPD‐ 2Q13 Production 73% Crude Oil & NGL’s
29% of Lonestar’s Total Production
Long‐Lived Reserves with Low Capital Requirements Reserves/Production ratio of 13.4 years
Current Capital Plans of $3 to 4 MM annually
East Texas
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Bakken/Three Forks ‐West Poplar
Billings
PARSHALL FIELD
Dunn
Divide
Williams
Mackenzie
BurkeSheridanDaniels
Roosevelt
Richland
Mountrail
FORT PECK RESERVATION
NES
SON
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POPLARDOME
West PoplarProject
Williston Basin renowned for highly successful Bakken Three Forks play
Historical industry activity concentrated on oil in acreage to south of the Brockton‐Froid fault
Lonestar adopted contrarian approach by acquiring West Poplar with 50,000 acres in Roosevelt County, to the north of Brockton‐ Froid fault
Industry group‐think has been that Bakken was “cooked” west of Brockton‐Froid Fault
Acreage selected due to its proximity to the Poplar Dome, which should provide enhanced fracturing in the target zones
Multiple conventional targets are productive in the area (Charles, Amsden, Nisku, etc.)
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Bakken/Three Forks ‐West Poplar
50,192 gross acres
June 2011
Lonestar and its partners drilled the Clark Farms #29‐10 in July, 2012 as a vertical completion
Encountered three prospective non‐conventional zones which comprise a 120’ to 150’ horizontal drilling target
Tested light crude oil from:
Lower Lodgepole ( 43.3 API) Bakken ( 41.2 API) Three Forks (45.8 API)
Established Bakken peak oil generation on the Project, which positively contrasts with offset well data
Ro‐ 0.88 Tmax: 457o
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Bakken/Three Forks ‐West Poplar
July 2012
Since this well test, nearly 1 million new acres have been leased north of the Brockton‐Froid fault, suggesting validation of the West Poplar potential
Lonestar is currently seeking to improve the value of this project
Archeological studies underway EA approval expected August 1st, 2013 3‐D seismic survey scheduled to be
initiated September 1st, 2013
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Summary of Investment Considerations
A Significant New Oil & Gas Company Listed on The ASX… Merger of Lonestar Resources and Amadeus Energy, Ltd completed January 2nd, 2013
Market capitalization of $100 million 1
Total Enterprise Value of $192 million 1
…With A Robust Asset Value Underpinned By Proved Reserves Proved reserves of 16.8 MMBOE2
Proved PV‐10 of $365.6 million2
CY12 EBITDAX of US$26‐29 million3, CY13 EBITDAX of US$63‐$75 million3
Significant, Self‐funded, Organic Growth In Production & Cash Flow From Existing Assets ~60 net horizontal drilling locations in inventory in Eagle Ford Shale planned for drilling over next 4 years Asherton and Gonzo have potential to yield substantial increase in oil reserves in CY13‐CY14
U.S.‐based management team with significant operating experience and a track record of growth Management’s members have track records of growth in value and liquidity events at successful U.S. publicly traded Energy
companies Have more than doubled reserves and more than tripled PV‐10 in less than two years.
Focus on Increasing Leasehold In the Eagle Ford Shale Crude Oil Window Fully integrated operating team with high‐margin Crude Oil Window expertise Evaluating several additional leasehold opportunities in the Eagle Ford Shale
1. Assumes current share price of A$0.16 applied to 697m shares2. As at June 30, 2013. PV-10 is net present value of future net revenue, after deductions for operating and capital expenses, production taxes and ad valorem taxes, but before corporate income tax and corporate overheads, using a
real, pre-tax discount rate of 10%.3. See Appendix for assumptions
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A Non‐Conventional Oil Company of Significant Scale
1. Lonestar’s net FY12 production does not consider the Beall Ranch acquisition.2. Unless otherwise stated, it has been assumed that the attributable reserves, as quoted in the companies' announcements, are net of royalties.Source: Company announcements.
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0
Samson Oil & Gas
AusTex Oil
Red Fork Energy
Empire Energy
Sundance Energy
Antares Energy
Lonestar Resources
Aurora Oil & Gas
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AusTex Oil
Red Fork Energy
Samson Oil & Gas
Sundance Energy
Empire Energy
Lonestar Resources
Aurora Oil & Gas
1
Net FY12 Production (mmboe)Net 1P Reserves2 (mmboe)
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29.727.3
24.122.2
12.1
8.5 7.96.8
Samson Oil& Gas
SundanceEnergy
Aurora Oil& Gas
Red ForkEnergy
LonestarResources
AntaresEnergy
AusTex Oil EmpireEnergy
20.5
15.514.1
12.1
9.5
5.5 5.0
2.4
Aurora Oil& Gas
Red ForkEnergy
SundanceEnergy
LonestarResources
Samson Oil& Gas
EmpireEnergy
AusTex Oil AntaresEnergy
Attractive Valuation Relative to ASX‐Listed Peers
Enterprise Value1 / 2P Reserves2 (A$/BOE)Enterprise Value1 / 1P Reserves2 (A$/BOE)
1. Lonestar Enterprise Value is calculated on a $0.16 / share price and 697.2m shares. All companies’ Enterprise Values are calculated on a diluted basis (assuming exercise of in-the-money options) and based on net debt including hedging, value of marketable securities and cash from exercise of in the money options. Net debt is calculated on latest company announcements available.
2. Unless otherwise stated, it has been assumed that the attributable reserves, as quoted in the companies' announcements, are net of royalties.3. Antares’ Enterprise Value includes cash proceeds from the sale of its Hawkville working interest.4. Samson’s Enterprise Value includes the funds raised from the ADS placements to institutional investors but does not include the funds raised from the rights issue announced on 22 March 2013.5. Sundance’s Enterprise Value includes A$48m placement to professional and sophisticated investors but does not include funds raised under the SPP which is scheduled to close on 28 June 2013. Source: Bloomberg as at June 9, 2013, company announcements.
3 344 5 5
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5.7x5.2x 5.0x
3.6x
2.7x
Antares Energy Aurora Oil & Gas Red Fork Energy Sundance Energy LonestarResources
Attractive Valuation Relative to ASX‐Listed Peers
Enterprise Value1 / CY13F EBITDA2 (x)Enterprise Value1 / Production3 (A$/BOED)
1. Lonestar Enterprise Value is calculated on a $0.16 / share price and 697.2m shares. All companies’ Enterprise Values are calculated on a diluted basis (assuming exercise of in-the-money options) and based on net debt including hedging, value of marketable securities and cash from exercise of in the money options. Net debt is calculated on latest company announcements available.
2. Lonestar CY13 EBITDA based on mid-point of estimate range. Aurora and Antares CY13EBITDA forecasts based on Bloomberg consensus estimates for CY13. Sundance and Red Fork CY13 EBITDA estimated by taking 50% of the sum of FY13 and FY14 Bloomberg consensus estimates.
3. Average net daily production over the March 2013 quarter.4. Antares’ Enterprise Value includes cash proceeds from the sale of its Hawkville working interest.5. Samson’s Enterprise Value includes the funds raised from the ADS placements to institutional investors but does not include the funds raised from the rights issue announced on 22 March 2013.6. Sundance’s Enterprise Value includes A$48m placement to professional and sophisticated investors but does not include funds raised under the SPP which is scheduled to close on 28 June 2013. Source: Bloomberg as at June 9, 2013, company announcements.
232,855 229,159
152,619
133,932126,811 120,320
78,032
48,110
Samson Oil& Gas
SundanceEnergy
Red ForkEnergy
Aurora Oil& Gas
AusTex Oil AntaresEnergy
LonestarResources
EmpireEnergy5
6
46
4
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Attractive Valuation Relative to ASX‐Listed Peers
Enterprise Value1 / 2P Reserves PV‐102 (x)Enterprise Value1 / 1P Reserves PV‐102 (x)
2.01.9
1.7 1.7
1.0
0.5 0.50.3
Samson Oil& Gas
Red ForkEnergy
Aurora Oil& Gas
SundanceEnergy
AntaresEnergy
LonestarResources
EmpireEnergy
AusTex Oil
1.71.5
0.9 0.9
0.5 0.5 0.40.2
Aurora Oil& Gas
Red ForkEnergy
SundanceEnergy
Samson Oil& Gas
LonestarResources
AntaresEnergy
EmpireEnergy
AusTex Oil
1. Lonestar Enterprise Value is calculated on a $0.16 / share price and 697.2m shares. All companies’ Enterprise Values are calculated on a diluted basis (assuming exercise of in-the-money options) and based on net debt including hedging, value of marketable securities and cash from exercise of in the money options. Net debt is calculated on latest company announcements available.
2. Unless otherwise stated, it has been assumed that the attributable reserves PV-10s, as quoted in the companies' announcements, are net of royalties.3. Antares’ Enterprise Value includes cash proceeds from the sale of its Hawkville working interest.4. Samson’s Enterprise Value includes the funds raised from the ADS placements to institutional investors but does not include the funds raised from the rights issue announced on 22 March 2013.5. Sundance’s Enterprise Value includes A$48m placement to professional and sophisticated investors but does not include funds raised under the SPP which is scheduled to close on 28 June 2013. Source: Bloomberg as at June 9, 2013, company announcements.
3 34 45 5
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Glossary
•“1P reserves” means proved reserves.•“2P reserves” means proved plus probable reserves.•“bbl” means barrel.•“boe” means barrels of oil equivalent, determined using a ratio of 6 Mcf of natural gas to 1 bbl of condensate or crude oil•“scf” means standard cubic feet.•“btu” means British thermal units.•“m” prefix means thousand.•“mm” prefix means million.•“b” prefix means billion.•“pd” suffix means per day.•“NGL” means Natural Gas Liquids, including condensate – these products are stripped from the gas stream at 3rd party facilities remote to the field.
Note: BOE may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of 6 Mcf : 1bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Given the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6 Mcf : 1 bbl, utilising a conversion ration of 6 Mcf : 1 bbl may be misleading if used in isolation.
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Reserves, PV‐10 and EBITDA Assumptions
The assumptions upon which Lonestar’s Proved and Probable reserves and PV10 estimates have been estimated based upon the following assumptions: Detail of field by field estimates of production, operating costs, capital costs, timing, analysis of production profiles, depletion statistics, log characteristics and other technical data for the recompletion, maintenance and workovers of existing wells, the drilling of new development wells and the extension drilling on the acreage positions held by Lonestar. Oil prices and gas prices are based on a NYMEX futures pricing scenario as set out in the table below. Pricing adjustments are made to these prices for individual assets to account for quality, transportation fees, marketing bonuses and regional price differentials.
The assumptions upon which Lonestar’s Proved and Probable reserves and PV10 estimates have been estimated based upon the following assumptions: 500 foot spacing on Beall Ranch for a total of 33 wells (9 producing, 24 to be developed) and 500 spacing on Asherton for a total of 10 wells (none producing, 10 to be developed) Single well capex of US$6.6million for Beall Ranch and US$5.5 million for Asherton Oil prices and gas prices are based on a NYMEX futures pricing scenario as set out in the table above. Pricing adjustments are made to these prices for individual assets to account for quality, transportation fees, marketing bonuses and regional price differentials.
Pro‐forma CY12 and CY13 EBITDA estimates are based on the following assumptions: Production estimates as set out in this presentation. Oil prices and gas prices are based on a NYMEX futures pricing scenario as set out in the table below. Pricing adjustments are made to these prices for individual assets to account for quality, transportation fees, marketing bonuses and regional price differentials.
The total number of planned wells at each asset is consistent with assumptions contained in the respective reserve assessments. The estimated well drilling and completion capital expenditure is based on the most recent Authorisations for Expenditures at each asset (as at 30 June 2013). Operating expenditure for each asset is based on the most recent Lease Operating Statements for each asset (as at 30 June 2013).
Year Oil (US$/bbl) Gas (US$/MMBtu)2013 $96.93 $3.462014 $94.19 $3.99
Year Oil (US$/bbl) Gas (US$/MMBtu)2013 $96.37 $3.652014 $90.85 $3.922015 $86.08 $4.122016 $83.02 $4.302017 $80.94 $4.512018 $79.32 $4.812019 $78.17 $5.182020 $77.39 $5.562021 $77.00 $5.92Thereafter Flat Flat
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Footnotes
In accordance with Chapter 5 of the Listing Rules, please be advised that:
Lonestar's Proved 1P reserves are estimated in accordance with the Society of Petroleum Engineers ‐ Petroleum Resource Management System (SPE‐PRMS).
The Company's Proved (1P) reserves on its Proved reserve regions have been estimated as follows:
Eagle Ford Shale ‐ Asherton Project
The Proved (1P) reserves on the Asherton Project have been independently estimated as at June 30, 2013, by William D. Von Gonten, Jr.,P.E., and Taylor D. Matthes of W. D. Van Gonten & Co.
Eagle Ford Shale ‐ Beall Ranch
The Proved (1P) reserves on the Beall Ranch Project were independently estimated as at December 31, 2012, by William D. Von Gonten, Jr.,P.E., and Taylor D. Matthes of W. D. Van Gonten & Co. As outlined on page 1, given there was no significant completion activity on the Beall Ranch project in the 6 months to June 30, 2013, the report was updated by Mr. Tom Olle, the Company’s Senior Petroleum Engineer to roll it forward to an effective date of June 30, 2013.
Conventional ‐ Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana
The Proved (1P) reserves on the Conventional Properties in Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana were independently estimated as at December 31, 2012, by William M. Kaman of La Roche Petroleum Consultants, Ltd. This report was updated for recent production history and rolled forward to the effective date of June 30, 2013 by Mr. Tom Olle, the Company’s Senior Petroleum Engineer.
Mr. Tom Olle, the Company's Senior Petroleum Engineer, performed the roll‐forward calculations outlined above. Mr. Olle is a Petroleum Engineer and a member of the Society of Petroleum Engineers with over 36 years’ experience.
W. D. Van Gonten & Co. and La Roche Petroleum Consultants, Ltd. are petroleum engineering firms that are certified by the Society of Petroleum Engineers and using the SPE ‐Petroleum Resource Management System.
In accordance with Listing Rule 5.13, each person above has consented to the inclusion of the information in the form and context in which is appears.
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