FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: PAD3295 · 2020-01-13 · for official use only report no: pad3295...

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Report No: PAD3295

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION

PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT

ON A

PROPOSED GRANT

IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 26.8 MILLION

(US$37 MILLION EQUIVALENT)

TO THE

REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN

FOR THE

TAJIKISTAN SOCIO-ECONOMIC RESILIENCE STRENGTHENING PROGRAM

May 30, 2019

Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice

Europe and Central Asia Region

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

(Exchange Rate Effective April 30, 2019)

Currency Unit = SDR

SDR 0.722 = US$1

US$ 1.385 = SDR 1

FISCAL YEAR

January 1–December 31

Regional Vice President: Cyril E. Muller

Country Director: Lilia Burunciuc

Senior Global Practice Director: Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez

Practice Manager: Kevin Tomlinson

Task Team Leader(s): Robert Wrobel, Gloria La Cava

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

AKDN Agha Khan Development Network BFM beneficiary feedback mechanism CAE centers for additional education CASA-1000 Central Asia South Asia Electricity

Transmission and Trade Project CDD community-driven development CPF Country Partnership Framework CYAS Committee for Youth Affairs and

Sports under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan

CSP community support project DHS Demographic and Health Survey DFID U.K. Department for International

Development EIRR economic internal rate of return EU European Union FCV fragility, conflict, and violence FM financial management GBAO Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous

Oblast GBV gender-based violence GDP gross domestic product GoT Government of Tajikistan GRM grievance redress mechanism GRS Grievance Redress Service (of the

World Bank) IDA International Development

Association IP implementing partner ISP implementation support plan JICA Japan International Cooperation

Agency JPC jamoat project commission KfW German Bank of Reconstruction M&E monitoring and evaluation MIS management information system MSDSP Mountain Societies Development

Support Program NGO nongovernmental organization NPV net present value NSIFT National Social Investment Fund of

Tajikistan O&M operations and maintenance

PDO project development objective PIU project implementation unit PPSD Project Procurement Strategy

Document POM Project Operations Manual REDP Rural Economy Development

Project REP Rural Electrification Project RMR Risk Mitigation Regime RSP Resilience Strengthening Program RRA Risk and Resilience Assessment RWSSP Rural Water Supply and Sanitation

Project TFP training and facilitating partner SDC Swiss Development Cooperation SERSP Socio-Economic Resilience

Strengthening Project SGM subgrants operations manual SPF State and Peacebuilding Fund SUE State Unitary Enterprise, Khojagii

Manziliyu Kommunali UNDP United Nations Development

Program UNICEF United Nations International

Children's Emergency Fund USAID United States Agency for

International Development VPC village project committee WBG World Bank Group WUA Water Users Association

The World Bank Tajikistan Socio-Economic Resilience Strengthening Program (P168052)

TABLE OF CONTENTS

DATASHEET ............................................................................................................................. 1

I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT ......................................................................................................... 1

A. Country Context................................................................................................................................ 1

B. Sector Context .................................................................................................................................. 2

C. Relevance to Higher-Level Objectives .............................................................................................. 5

II. PROJECT DESCRIPTION....................................................................................................... 7

A. Project Development Objective (PDO) ............................................................................................. 7

B. Project Components ......................................................................................................................... 8

C. Project Beneficiaries ....................................................................................................................... 14

D. Results Chain .................................................................................................................................. 16

E. Rationale for Bank Involvement and Role of Partners ................................................................... 17

F. Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design .................................................................... 18

III. IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS ................................................................................. 21

A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements .......................................................................... 21

B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation Arrangements......................................................................... 26

C. Sustainability ................................................................................................................................... 26

IV. PROJECT APPRAISAL SUMMARY ........................................................................................ 27

A. Technical, Economic, and Financial Analysis .................................................................................. 27

B. Fiduciary .......................................................................................................................................... 29

C. Legal Operational Policies. .............................................................................................................. 31

D. Environmental and Social. .............................................................................................................. 31

E. Citizen Engagement, Gender, and Climate Change ........................................................................ 32

V. KEY RISKS ....................................................................................................................... 34

VI. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING ......................................................................... 36

ANNEX 1: Implementation Arrangements and Support Plan ........................................................ 49

ANNEX 2: Detailed Description of Subcomponent 1b and Component 2 ........................................ 58

ANNEX 3: Gender ................................................................................................................... 64

ANNEX 4: Map of Tajikistan ..................................................................................................... 68


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DATASHEET

BASIC INFORMATION

BASIC_INFO_TABLE

Country(ies) Project Name

Tajikistan Tajikistan Socio-Economic Resilience Strengthening Project

Project ID Financing Instrument Environmental and Social Risk Classification

P168052 Investment Project Financing

Substantial

Financing & Implementation Modalities

[ ] Multiphase Programmatic Approach (MPA) [ ] Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC)

[ ] Series of Projects (SOP) [ ] Fragile State(s)

[ ] Disbursement-linked Indicators (DLIs) [ ] Small State(s)

[ ] Financial Intermediaries (FI) [✓] Fragile within a non-fragile Country

[ ] Project-Based Guarantee [ ] Conflict

[ ] Deferred Drawdown [ ] Responding to Natural or Man-made Disaster

[ ] Alternate Procurement Arrangements (APA)

Expected Approval Date Expected Closing Date

20-Jun-2019 30-Jun-2024

Bank/IFC Collaboration

No


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Proposed Development Objective(s)

The development objectives of this project are to strengthen participatory local governance, improve the quality of local infrastructure, both in targeted communities, and increase extracurricular or livelihood opportunities for youth.

Components

Component Name Cost (US$, millions)

Component 1: Inclusive Local Development Initiatives 22.60

Component 2: Youth Inclusion and Livelihoods 12.50

Component 3: Project Management and Monitoring and Evaluation 1.90

Organizations

Borrower: Ministry of Finance

Implementing Agency: National Social Investment Fund of Tajikistan

PROJECT FINANCING DATA (US$, Millions)

SUMMARY-NewFin1

Total Project Cost 37.00

Total Financing 37.00

of which IBRD/IDA 37.00

Financing Gap 0.00


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DETAILS-NewFinEnh1

World Bank Group Financing

International Development Association (IDA) 37.00

IDA Grant 37.00

IDA Resources (in US$, Millions)

Credit Amount Grant Amount Guarantee Amount Total Amount

National PBA 0.00 37.00 0.00 37.00

Total 0.00 37.00 0.00 37.00

Expected Disbursements (in US$, Millions)

WB Fiscal Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Annual 0.00 3.31 6.81 8.89 9.73 8.26

Cumulative 0.00 3.31 10.12 19.01 28.74 37.00

INSTITUTIONAL DATA

Practice Area (Lead) Contributing Practice Areas

Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice

Fragile, Conflict & Violence, Governance, Poverty and Equity, Water

Climate Change and Disaster Screening

This operation has been screened for short and long-term climate change and disaster risks


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Gender Tag

Does the project plan to undertake any of the following?

a. Analysis to identify Project-relevant gaps between males and females, especially in light of country gaps identified through SCD and CPF

Yes

b. Specific action(s) to address the gender gaps identified in (a) and/or to improve women or men's empowerment

Yes

c. Include Indicators in results framework to monitor outcomes from actions identified in (b) Yes

SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK-RATING TOOL (SORT)

Risk Category Rating

1. Political and Governance ⚫ High

2. Macroeconomic ⚫ Moderate

3. Sector Strategies and Policies ⚫ Substantial

4. Technical Design of Project or Program ⚫ Substantial

5. Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability ⚫ High

6. Fiduciary ⚫ High

7. Environment and Social ⚫ Substantial

8. Stakeholders ⚫ Moderate

9. Other

10. Overall ⚫ High


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COMPLIANCE

Policy Does the project depart from the CPF in content or in other significant respects?

[ ] Yes [✓] No

Does the project require any waivers of Bank policies?

[ ] Yes [✓] No

Environmental and Social Standards Relevance Given its Context at the Time of Appraisal

E & S Standards Relevance

Assessment and Management of Environmental and Social Risks and Impacts Relevant

Stakeholder Engagement and Information Disclosure Relevant

Labor and Working Conditions Relevant

Resource Efficiency and Pollution Prevention and Management Relevant

Community Health and Safety Relevant

Land Acquisition, Restrictions on Land Use and Involuntary Resettlement Relevant

Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Management of Living Natural

Resources

Not Currently Relevant

Indigenous Peoples/Sub-Saharan African Historically Underserved Traditional

Local Communities

Not Currently Relevant

Cultural Heritage Relevant

Financial Intermediaries Not Currently Relevant


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NOTE: For further information regarding the World Bank’s due diligence assessment of the Project’s potential environmental and social risks and impacts, please refer to the Project’s Appraisal Environmental and Social Review Summary (ESRS).

Legal Covenants

Sections and Description Schedule 2, Section I.A.1 The Recipient shall establish, not later than three (3) months after the Effective Date and thereafter maintain, throughout the implementation of the Project, a Project Steering Committee satisfactory to the Association.

Sections and Description Schedule 2, Section I.A.2 The Recipient shall cause the Project Implementing Entity to establish not later than three (3) months after the Effective Date and thereafter maintain, throughout the implementation of the Project, a Project management team with adequate staff and resources acceptable to the Association. The Project management team should include, inter alia, a Project coordinator, a procurement specialist, a financial management specialist, a head engineer, environmental and social safeguard specialists, youth inclusion and livelihood specialists CDD specialists, and social accountability specialists.

Sections and Description Schedule 2, Section I.A.3 The Recipient shall cause the Project Implementing Entity to carry out the Project in accordance with the Project Manuals, satisfactory to the Association. Except as the Association shall otherwise agree in writing, the Recipient shall cause the Project Implementing Entity not to amend, waive, suspend, or abrogate any of the provisions of the Project Manuals without the Association’s prior written agreement. In case of any inconsistency between any of the provisions of the Project Manuals and those of this Agreement, the provisions of this Agreement shall prevail.

Sections and Description Schedule 2, Section I.A.4 The Recipient shall cause the Project Implementation Entity to ensure provision of technical support (i) of the selected TFPs for purposes of carrying out activities under Part 1 of the Project; and (ii) of the selected IPs for


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purposes of carrying out activities under Part 2 of the Project, as set forth in this Agreement and the Project Manuals.

Sections and Description Schedule 2, Section I.A.6 The Recipient shall cause the Project Implementation Entity to establish, not later than 60 days after the Effective Date, an automated accounting information system, satisfactory to the Association, for recording Project records and generation of Project financial statements.

Conditions

Type Description

Effectiveness the Project Operational Manual, including the Subgrants Manual, has been adopted by the

Project Implementing Entity in a form and substance satisfactory to the Association.

Type Description

Effectiveness The Subsidiary Agreement has been executed on behalf of the Recipient and the Project

Implementing Entity satisfactory to the Association.


Page 1 of 75

I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT

A. Country Context

1. Tajikistan, a transition country with a per-capita gross national income (GNI) oscillating between low and lower middle income, has yet to fulfill its potential for sustainable and inclusive development. The country’s economic outcome reflects: (i) the legacy of the 1992–97 civil war; (ii) a centralized, state-led approach to economic management; (iii) low domestic productivity, with wages at levels that leave most households exposed to (seasonal) poverty (risks); and (iv) a “low level equilibrium” of a remittance-financed, import-reliant, indirect tax-based economic model that has provided little space and support to the private sector. Its economy has remained largely unsophisticated, with limited employment opportunities and a human-capital base that is not yet ready for the challenges of an innovative, export-oriented economy. The main drivers of Tajikistan’s economy are remittance inflows (one-third of GDP), cotton and aluminum exports, official development assistance (ODA) inflows, and in recent years, substantial levels of public investment. Structural economic challenges include a persistent trade deficit, reliance on remittances, a small and fragile financial sector, and limited internal labor mobility and employment.

2. Tajikistan remains one of the poorest countries in Central Asia, with a large share of its population dependent on remittances and low-productivity sectors. The post-conflict decline in poverty rates has been impressive, albeit at declining rates in recent years. Extreme poverty, measured by the international poverty line of US$1.90 per day, fell markedly - from 54 percent in 1999 to five percent in 2015. According to the GoT’s own calculations, using a national poverty line, poverty declined, over the same time horizon, from 82 to 31 percent and further to 29½ percent in 2017. There is substantial spatial and seasonal variation in poverty - with rural areas remaining typically significant poorer than urban ones1; and poverty and income insecurity significantly higher during winter and spring months. Non-monetary aspects of poverty remain important contributing factors to Tajik’s hardship and lack of opportunity.

3. Risks related to fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) constrain Tajikistan’s development progress. Most cross-national indicators of fragility and conflict categorize Tajikistan’s risk as elevated.2 Risks include the following: (i) Economic risks, including (a) high rates of un(der)employment, (b) the predominance of insecure, low-quality, low- wage jobs in the informal sector, and (c) numerous barriers to private-sector development; (ii) Socio-economic exclusion of youth and women (see para 6 and below); (iii) Regional and cross-border challenges, including (a) the existence of lagging regions, (b) heightened vulnerability in certain regions (reflecting the legacy of conflict and/or the proximity to zones of insecurity), and (c) the exposure to international drug-trafficking routes, and (iv) Challenges in local service delivery, including limited scope for citizens’ participation, which reduces the effectiveness of service delivery and delays efforts in overcoming inequities in public-resource allocation. Furthermore, youth radicalization is a phenomenon is gaining ground in parts of Central Asia, including in Tajikistan. Empirical evidence appears to indicate the co-existence of external and domestic drivers of radicalization, including (i) the presence of a large cohort of young men with limited

1 According to the official poverty estimates for 2015, Dushanbe has the lowest poverty rate in Tajikistan (20.4 percent) followed by Sughd (22.3 percent). In other regions, the share of the poor population is much higher—35.8 percent in Khatlon, 37.3 percent in the Districts of Republican Subordination (DRS), and 39.4 percent in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO). 2 Tajikistan is one of 56 countries classified as “fragile” or “extremely fragile” in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s States of Fragility 2018 (Paris: OECD Publishing, 2018), https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264302075-en.


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socio-economic opportunities, rudimentary religious knowledge of Hanafi Central Asian Islam, and a lack of critical thinking skills; (ii) an increasing number of Tajik migrants deported and/or banned from (re-)entering Russia, leaving them without livelihood options; and (iii) the vulnerability of young women to radicalization and recruitment through male relatives, prospective spouses, and/or the desire to protect an existing marriage. Against this backdrop, Tajikistan is one of four beneficiary countries under the IDA18 Risk Mitigation Regime (RMR).

4. Natural disasters and climate change threaten Tajikistan’s economic and social development.3 The country’s varied geological, climatologic, and topographic features exacerbate its vulnerability and make it highly susceptible to many natural hazards, including earthquakes, floods, landslides, and avalanches. From 1992 to 2016, natural disasters affected 7 million people in Tajikistan—more than 80 percent of the total population—and caused economic losses worth US$1.8 billion. In response to these risks, the Government of Tajikistan (GoT) is gradually moving from disaster response to risk mitigation and has taken steps to mainstream disaster risk mitigation into development planning, including the adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction in 2015.

B. Sector Context

5. The sector context for the project emerges from three distinct risks: (i) the socio-economic exclusion of young men and women, which relates to risks of extremism; (ii) regional and cross-border challenges that result in heightened fragility risks; and (iii) cross-cutting governance challenges that constrain the implementation of participatory and accountable local governance practices.

6. (i) Socio-economic exclusion of young men and women. Tajikistan has the largest proportion of youth to adults among all post-Soviet republics. Sixty-three percent of the country’s approximate 8.9 million population is under 30; 28.6 percent are between the ages of 15 and 29.4 Youth aged 15–24 face limited economic opportunities. According to the 2016 Labor Force Survey, among youth in Tajikistan aged 15–24, 29.3 percent, or 435,621, are not in employment, education or training (NEET).5 About 49.3 percent of Tajik women aged 15 to 24 are NEET compared with seven percent of the same age cohort of men.6 The country’s NEET population is 88.4 percent female and 11.6 male. About one in six men and one in ten women aged 20–24 are too discouraged to look for work. The highest concentration of NEETs is in Dushanbe at 40.4 percent, followed by DRS at 36.1 percent, and GBAO at 30.4 percent.7

7. Adolescents suffer from specific vulnerabilities. 8 In a recent nationally and regionally representative survey of 5,000 youth, every third adolescent in the 15–19 age group indicated that they were depressed. While 97 percent of adolescents indicated they were enrolled in formal education, only two percent were active in extracurricular

3 World Bank, Reducing Multi-Hazard Risks Across Tajikistan: Protecting Communities Through Quality Infrastructure (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017). 4 Statistical Agency under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan, Annual Population Data, January 1, 2018. http://stat.ww.tj/files/cislennost_naselenia_na_1.01.2018.pdf. 5Statistical Agency under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan, Labor Force Survey (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016). 6 Statistical Agency under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan, Labor Force Survey (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016). 7 Statistical Agency under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan, Situation in the Labor Market in the Republic of Tajikistan. (Dushanbe: Statistical Agency under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan, 2017). 8 Center for Strategic Research under the President of Tajikistan and UNICEF. National Study on Adolescents and Youth: Assessments of Needs and Interests (Dushanbe: UNICEF, 2018). All figures cited in this paragraph are drawn from this study.

http://stat.ww.tj/files/cislennost_naselenia_na_1.01.2018.pdf


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activities. Rural adolescents indicated that there are high levels of violence in schools, with 47 percent of respondents reporting that teachers use violence to punish students.9 Twenty-four percent of respondents observed their peers using violence in the streets. Adolescents aged ten to 19 years reported the highest percentage of peer-to-peer violence in GBAO (52 percent).

8. Labor migration of young Tajik men, mostly to Russia, is an important coping strategy in a situation of limited domestic economic opportunities. As many as 0.5 million Tajik citizens, 78 percent of whom are young men, emigrate to find job opportunities abroad.10 Most of these migrants are married with children and support households with an average size of between seven and eight persons.11 Approximately one in three migrants’ wives, over 150,000 young women, find themselves left alone and impoverished, entirely dependent on help from family, relatives, and friends. Seventy percent of abandoned wives have children, and they are left to provide for their households despite their limited access to finance, social protection, education, or opportunities for employment.

9. In recent years, violent extremism has been a growing concern in Tajikistan. Central Asians are featured among foreign fighters in several conflict zones and among perpetrators of terrorist attacks elsewhere.12 Islamic State recruits from Tajikistan range in age from 22–28 years, according to estimates.13 Recent government figures indicate that 1,899 Tajik nationals have been recruited, a considerably higher number than the earlier estimate of 1,100.14 In the past eight years, the GoT has brought back around 3,400 young Tajik nationals who were pursuing their Islamic education abroad due to concerns over their radicalization.15 Global evidence suggests that there are multiple factors that drive radicalization and recruitment into violent extremist groups, including lack of economic mobility, political grievances against the state, perceptions of identity-based discrimination, ideological radicalization, and the presence of recruiting networks with family and community links.16 The World Bank has been supporting the Youth Inclusion and Resilience Development Study with primary research to gain insight into the local-level drivers of radicalization and recruitment into violent extremism with a view toward contributing to the design of prevention measures in the Tajikistan context.

10. (ii) Regional and cross-border challenges. The Khatlon and GBAO Regions of Tajikistan are especially exposed to fragility-related risks that partly stem from their shared 1,400-kilometer border with Afghanistan. Districts in southern

9 Ibid. According to data from the State Migration Service of the RT under the Ministry of Labor, Employment, and Migration, 2018. 11 Most migrants have completed general secondary education but are unskilled and not employed in Tajikistan prior to migrating abroad. World Bank, Job Diagnostics Tajikistan, Series 1 (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017). 12 At least 5,000 Central Asians have joined jihadi groups in Syria and Iraq, with some assuming prominent roles in the Islamic State and the Nusra Front. The perpetrators of the recent terrorist attacks in Istanbul, St. Petersburg, and Stockholm were of Central Asian origin. Barrett, Richard. 2017. Beyond the Caliphate: Foreign Fighters and the Threat of Returnees. The Soufan Center. 13 Dyner, Anna, Arkadiusz Legieć, and Kacper Rękawek, Ready to Go?: ISIS and Its Presumed Expansion into Central Asia (Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych, 2015). 14 Government of Tajikistan, State Committee of National Security, presentation to Parliamentary Session on “Prevention of Youth Involvement in Terrorist Organization and Implementation of the Law in the Republic of Tajikistan” (November 7, 2018), http://saidomardum.tj/ma-lisi-ol/peshgirii-albi-avonon-ba-tashkiloti-terrorist-vazifai-omeai-sha-rvand-niz-ast/. 15 https://eurasianet.org/s/tajikistan-former-students-of-islam-return-to-nothing. 16 The literature on violent extremism also underlines the motivations deriving from a sense of common purpose and social belonging, weak religious literacy, and lack of critical thinking skills, although only a minority of young men and women are vulnerable to recruitment into violent extremist groups. World Bank and United Nations, Pathways for Peace (2018).

http://saidomardum.tj/ma-lisi-ol/peshgirii-albi-avonon-ba-tashkiloti-terrorist-vazifai-omeai-sha-rvand-niz-ast/

http://saidomardum.tj/ma-lisi-ol/peshgirii-albi-avonon-ba-tashkiloti-terrorist-vazifai-omeai-sha-rvand-niz-ast/

https://eurasianet.org/s/tajikistan-former-students-of-islam-return-to-nothing


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Khatlon share a border with the increasingly volatile Kunduz province in Afghanistan; and GBAO has recently witnessed the reoccurrence of clashes between local nonstate actors and the central government over influence in the region.17 11. Service delivery and human development gaps. Khatlon’s almost 3 million inhabitants (over one-third of the country’s total population) and GBAO’s geographic remoteness and sparseness of its population each present a unique service-delivery challenge. The populations of both regions, as well as that of the DRS, have the lowest levels of access to basic services, with at least three-fourths of their populations lacking a toilet inside the house or access to piped

water and sewage.18 The highest prevalence of stunting is observed in DRS (24 percent), followed by Khatlon

(22.6 percent) and GBAO (22.4 percent), with the lowest stunting prevalence in Dushanbe (10.5 percent).19 Compared

with the rest of the country, GBAO has very low levels of road density and market accessibility.20

12. Natural hazards and climate shocks. GBAO is extremely susceptible to natural hazards, and its geographic isolation leaves the region’s population particularly vulnerable. In Khatlon, the risk of landslides, mudflows, floods, and

erosion is particularly high in districts such as Vakhsh, Farkhor, and Kubodien.21

13. (iii) Challenges in local service delivery. The administrative territorial units of Tajikistan are provinces oblast), cities, districts (rayons) and jamoats (equivalent to a township and consisting of multiple villages). District administrations are primarily responsible for delivering most of the country’s public services, including education, health, culture, sports, local road construction and maintenance, and transportation, but they face a range of challenges in fulfilling this function, partly due to limited public resources. Jamoats have the status of local self-governing bodies and are the lowest formal level of government administration. There is no formal village government in the country. Instead, the interests of multiple villages are represented in jamoat councils. The country has established a legal framework that promotes “self-governing” communities, and subnational administrations to support local development. In its amended form, the legal framework22

assigns jamoats a broad range of mandates: supporting communities to address local socioeconomic needs, strengthening local self-governance and accountability by delegating budget authority to jamoat councils, introducing direct elections for jamoat councilors, and allowing the retention of non-tax revenues and a percentage of local property taxes. Despite this, jamoat capacity remains low, resources are negligible, and there has been little change on the ground. 14. An important source of resilience in communities in Tajikistan is the strength of local institutions, including mahallas. Mahalla, a community self-government body23. is regulated by rules based on traditional practices and customs deeply rooted in the Central Asian Islamic tradition. Typically, mahallas are situated within villages. While historically informal in nature, recent legislation allows mahalla committees to register as social institutions, open bank

17International Crisis Group. “Rivals for Authority in Tajikistan’s Gorno-Badakhshan,” Crisis Group Europe and Central Asia Briefing 87, March 14 (International Crisis Group, 2018). 18 World Bank, Glass Half Full: Poverty Diagnostic of Water Supply, Sanitation, and Hygiene Conditions in Tajikistan (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017). 19 Lavado, Rouselle, William Seitz, and Alessia Thiebaud. Childhood Stunting in Tajikistan: Quantifying the Association with WASH, Food Security, Health, and Care Practices (Washington, DC, World Bank, 2017). 20 World Bank calculations based on OpenStreetMap data. 21 United Nations, Atlas of Tajikistan (forthcoming). 22 Law on the Bodies of Self-governance of Townships and Villages, No. 549, 2009 as amended. 23 Ibid.


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accounts, organize community events, certify residency, and work directly with international, non-governmental, and government organizations. A 2013 household survey24 found that mahalla leaders have the highest level of citizen accountability of any public organization in Tajikistan. While jamoat councils and mahalla committees together constitute a local institutional basis through which donor projects can support transparent, inclusive local development investments, actual participation in mahalla committees tends to be dominated by older men, with limited avenues for youth and women participation in local decision making, and no alternative institutionalized mechanism for ensuring the participation of women in local civic affairs. Ensuring young men and women benefit from community initiatives is particularly important given Tajikistan’s youth bulge and high levels of youth unemployment and inactivity.

15. The institutionalization of community and civil society participation in local development planning in Tajikistan is nascent. Community-driven development (CDD) has not been embraced on a national scale, and demand-side mechanisms to hold subnational administrations accountable for local service delivery are undeveloped. Together, jamoat councils and mahalla committees constitute an institutional basis through which, with appropriate adjustments to allow for greater participation of women and youth, transparent, inclusive development investments could be supported at the local level. The high level of youth unemployment and inactivity in Tajikistan means that it is particularly important to ensure that young men and women participate in and benefit from community initiatives.

16. To address identified fragility risks, the proposed Project will ensure a fair and transparent allocation of resources and empower communities to participate in decision making and provide oversight of local infrastructure investments. These elements will strengthen the inclusiveness, fairness, and accountability of local government institutions. By laying the foundations for supporting the development of life skills and livelihood opportunities for youth, the proposed Project will help prevent interpersonal violence and strengthen the resilience of individuals with respect to the risks of radicalization and recruitment into violent extremist groups.

C. Relevance to Higher-Level Objectives

17. Benefitting from top-up IDA financing for Tajikistan under the IDA-18’s RMR, the proposed Project—the Socio-Economic Resilience Strengthening Project (SERSP) - would contribute to Focus Area 1 (Human Capital and Resilience) of the World Bank Group Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for the Republic of Tajikistan for the period of FY2019–23. An RMR allocation in the amount of US$98.7 million will finance activities under a preventative approach, the Resilience Strengthening Program (RSP), that will address risks associated with fragility, conflict and violence (FCV) that constrain development progress in Tajikistan. The RSP is described in the RMR implementation note—integrated into the CPF.

18. Through the RSP, RMR resources have been allocated to most-at-risk geographic areas, notably the southern regions of GBAO and those of Khatlon that border Afghanistan. The RSP targets challenges, and reinforces sources of resilience, for the most-at-risk social groups—women and youth—from different angles. The RSP will create complementarities along three thematic clusters of interventions: (i) support to create economic opportunities for vulnerable groups at the market-facing end of the agriculture value chain and in commerce and export-related services; (ii) social and economic empowerment of at-risk-groups, including training, awareness building, and dialogue at the

24 United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Tajikistan Local Governance Project Impact Evaluation Baseline Report (Washington, DC: USAID, 2013).


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community-level and between communities and local government; and (iii) investments in demand-based, local service infrastructure, including social services and on-and off-grid electricity supply and energy investments for the electrification of previously unconnected communities in the Afghanistan–Tajikistan border areas of GBAO and Khatlon. The RSP will be operationalized through three complementary investment lending operations, namely (a) the proposed “Socio-Economic Resilience Strengthening Project” covering activity clusters (ii) and (iii), (b) a “Rural Economy Development Project” to cover predominantly activity cluster (i), and (c) a “Rural Electrification Project” covering activity cluster (iii). The RMR allocation in the amount of US$98.7 million will finance the Resilience Strengthening Program (RSP), consisting of three complementary individual projects, including the Rural Economy Development Project (REDP), the Rural Electrification Project (REP), and the proposed SESRP.

19. All three RSP projects contribute to the World Bank Group’s Twin Goals, specifically the goal to eradicate poverty, through efforts to address income poverty (under REDP) and nonmonetary factors that contribute to poverty, such as lack of social infrastructure, livelihoods, and basic life skills (under SERSP), and lack of reliable access to electricity (under REP). The three projects intend to be gender tagged and include opportunities for civic engagement.

20. The proposed Project is complementary to both the REDP and REP. Communities that will benefit from electrification under the REP will be able to access complementary investments, such as electric water pumps and electric heating for kindergartens under SERSP Component 1 to improve the overall quality of services in targeted areas. Under Component 2, SERSP will provide basic start-up support to youth beneficiaries and help connect them with value chains and opportunities offered by REDP.

21. The RSP is consistent with the GoT’s strategies on preventing violent extremism. In 2011, Tajikistan adopted the Regional Joint Action Plan for the Implementation of the United Nations Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy in Central Asia. In November 2016, it enacted the National Strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan on Countering Extremism and Terrorism for 2016–2020. To implement the strategy, a list of 13 priority objectives were identified, including: (i) eliminating socio-economic conditions conducive to radicalization and violent extremism that leads to terrorism; (ii) preventing extremism and radicalization among adolescents and youth; (iii) decreasing the vulnerability of women to extremist propaganda and ensuring their full participation in the development and implementation of policies to this end; (iv) facilitating the participation of civil society and the private sector in countering extremism and terrorism; and (v) reinforcing international and regional cooperation. Progress toward operationalizing this strategy has been achieved through the contributions of multiple ministries and government agencies. The Committee for Youth Affairs and Sports (CYAS) under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan, the responsible entity for youth policy, launched the Youth Development Strategy for 2020 and related agenda promoted under the “Year of Youth”, declared in 2017, which emphasizes youth civic and economic participation, cultural and social inclusion, and empowerment as measures designed to prevent violent extremism. The 2018 Dushanbe Declaration emphasized the importance of regional and international coordination and cooperation and the need to address and prevent the root causes of grievances and conflict, which could lead to violent extremism, radicalization and terrorism, particularly among youth, and in close cooperation with civil society.

22. The National Development Strategy for 2030 and the Medium-Term Development Strategy for 2020 reflect

the high priority of the government to strengthen resilience through local governance reform. Both strategies are specifically aimed at increasing the status and strengthening the capacity and efficiency of local governments and local


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self-governing institutions; redistributing functions and authority to the local level; strengthening the capacity of local authorities and local self-governing bodies to undertake decision-making processes of local importance; and supporting job creation in the rural economy.

23. In line with corporate mandates, SERSP contributes to the World Bank Group’s (WBG) commitments to support and scale up climate action and increase the climate-related share of development financing. The Project will close gender gaps around voice and agency, employment, and access to services. Citizen engagement is central to the community-driven processes embedded in the Project’s design. Through the engagement of target beneficiaries, the Project is designed to enhance accountability, empower women and youth in decision-making roles, and ensure investments meet community needs.

II. PROJECT DESCRIPTION

A. Project Development Objective (PDO)

24. The development objectives are to strengthen participatory local governance, improve the quality of local infrastructure, both in targeted communities, and increase extracurricular or livelihood opportunities for youth.

PDO Level Indicators

i. Percentage of sampled male and female community respondents who report that the project investments in basic rural infrastructure met their needs.

ii. Percentage of beneficiaries (male/female) who participate in planning, decision-making, or monitoring subprojects.

iii. Percentage of youth beneficiaries (male/female) who utilize skills gained through the extracurricular activities.

iv. Percentage of youth beneficiaries (male/female) who continue their livelihood activities one year after receiving livelihood tools and equipment.

25. In achieving these results, the Project will contribute to the RSP’s higher-level objective of mitigating fragility risks and strengthening resilience—defined as the capacity of a person or community to resist, withstand, or recover from economic, environmental, or familial shocks and stressors, including conflict and violence. The Project will strengthen resilience at the individual, community, and local government levels in GBAO and Khatlon. It will specifically target: Vanj, Ishkoshim, and Shugnan in GBAO; and Kulyob, Panj, Hamadoni, and Farkhor in Khatlon. At the individual level, proposed interventions include the provision of psychosocial support;25 soft skills, including critical thinking and

25 Evidence from randomized control trials suggests that psychosocial support can lead to higher earnings for beneficiaries. See Blattman, Christopher, Nathan Fiala, and Sebastian Martinez, “Generating Skilled Self-employment in Developing Countries: Experimental Evidence from Uganda.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129 (2): 697–752 (2013).


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peacebuilding skills;26 and support for youth self-employment and livelihood groups.27 At the community level, proposed interventions include the provision of locally-identified infrastructure using participatory planning and oversight processes. At the local government level, interventions include strengthening the capacity of jamoat administrations and community-level institutions, including mahalla committees, to engage with citizens and to deliver services efficiently, fairly, and in response to the needs of the community.

B. Project Components

26. Component 1: Inclusive Local Development Initiatives (US$22.6 million IDA). This component will provide subgrants to jamoats to finance local-level, climate-resilient, socio-economic infrastructure (see paragraphs 31–32) that addresses priorities identified through a participatory village needs assessment and decision-making process as defined in subcomponent 1b and detailed in the forthcoming project operations manual (POM).28 It will strengthen the capacity of jamoat administrations and community-level institutions, including mahalla committees, to engage with citizens and deliver services efficiently, fairly, and in a way that responds to the needs of citizens, including youth and women. It will build the capacity of community and local government institutions to: (i) identify, plan for, and take actions needed to mitigate the risks that natural disasters pose to local development investments; and (ii) operate and maintain local infrastructure assets, which will then ensure the sustainability of investments. Component 1 will also provide resources to refurbish youth facilities operated by the Ministry of Education. An overview of its subcomponents follows. 27. Subcomponent 1a: Subgrants for Local Development Initiatives (US$17.4 million IDA). Provide support for the selected subprojects to improve local living conditions, including: (i) the rehabilitation of village-level water supply and sanitation systems; (ii) the rehabilitation of on-farm irrigation systems; (iii) the rehabilitation of schools and local health clinics; (iv) the expansion or construction of kindergartens on existing premises; and (v) the rehabilitation of tertiary roads through the provision of subgrants to selected beneficiaries within the project area and technical assistance (TA) for the technical design associated with the respective subprojects.

28. Based on a village-level participatory needs assessment, the results of which will be prioritized and incorporated into a jamoat-level development plan, this subcomponent will support investments in basic and climate change resilient infrastructure and services for targeted rural districts. Where possible, local development initiatives will leverage the opportunities created by the complementary investments in electricity access made under the RSP’s rural electrification program and in water and sanitation services made under the World Bank-financed Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project (RWSSP).29

26 Recent behavioral programs have shown that that emphasizing social, emotional, and soft skills may can be powerful tools to significantly reduce violence. See Blattman, Christopher and Laura Ralston, “Generating Employment in Poor and Fragile States: Evidence from Labor Market and Entrepreneurship Programs” (2015), available at: SSRN 2622220. 27 In fragile states, capital injections (cash and capital goods) stimulate employment and raise long-term earning potential. See Blattman, Christopher and Laura Ralston, “Generating Employment in Poor and Fragile States: Evidence from Labor Market and Entrepreneurship Programs” (2015), available at: SSRN 2622220. 28 For subcomponents 1a and 1b and component 3, SERSP’s POM will be identical to the CASA-1000’s CSP’s POM and subgrants operations manual. 29 World Bank. “Tajikistan—Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project,” Project Appraisal Document (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019).


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29. Subgrant allocation. Subgrants will only be allocated at the jamoat level. The jamoat grant distribution formula for each of the two cycles of CDD investment will be based on two criteria: (i) jamoat population size; and (ii) the cost of infrastructure and service delivery.30 The distribution formula will ensure that allocated resources suffice to allow for impactful investments. Within jamoats, there will be a process for villages to apply for single-village subgrants or for larger projects that benefit multiple villages—such as intervillage roads—in partnership with other villages. There will be one or two cycles of subgrants in project years one, two, and three for each participating jamoat with investments in socio-economic infrastructure, facilities, and services. In year four, residual funds will be invested in the youth-led activities identified in the jamoat development plans.

30. Scope of investments. Investments could be financed for single villages or, when possible, a cluster of closely located villages.31 Village subprojects will be selected from an open menu of small-scale social and economic infrastructure and facilities projects. Investments will focus on the domains for which jamoat administrations are responsible. Where possible, the Project will finance energy-efficiency measures to strengthen community resilience in the face of seasonal energy shortages. The Project will not finance productive infrastructure projects such as small-scale storage or processing facilities for horticultural products as these will be financed under REDP. Contractors will be encouraged to employ local youth for the infrastructure subprojects. The Environmental and Social Management Framework and the POM, including the subgrants operations manual (SGM), will include a list of ineligible investments.

31. Operations, maintenance, and sustainability. Component 1 will be designed and implemented with measures to ensure that subgrant-financed investments deliver sustainable benefits to communities and local governments. Subproject designs and implementation arrangements will build on existing local institutions, such as water users associations (WUAs) for on-farm irrigation, and implementation approaches, such as those supported through RWSSP for rural water supply and sanitation. Subprojects will apply appropriate, climate change and natural hazards-resilient technical designs. Communities and jamoat administrations will receive capacity-building support to prepare appropriately designed and funded operations and maintenance (O&M) plans as a precondition for subproject approval. These plans will clearly describe: (i) the activities and measures envisaged for the subproject’s O&M; (ii) the roles and responsibilities for carrying out each measure; (iii) the frequency of the activities; and (iv) the proposed mechanism for covering O&M costs.

32. Selection of subprojects and implementation. Prior to the funding of subprojects, each village will provide evidence that the community mobilization process and decisions regarding the subprojects have been earnestly undertaken; that the proposed subprojects contribute to poverty reduction; and that the youth and gender equity goals have been included in the jamoat development plans. Proposed subprojects, including O&M plans, should be technically viable according to a checklist, ensure donor coordination and alignment, and demonstrate their sustainability. The SGM will detail the selection criteria, including weighting toward the needs of youth and women.

30 When possible, 2018 data from the Tajikistan Statistical Office Census will be used. 31 For example, the project could finance water supply systems for individual villages or a cluster of villages located close to one another with construction of multi-village systems, where one water source will be developed to supply multiple villages.


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33. Subcomponent 1b: Community and Youth Mobilization, Social Accountability, and Local Governance Capacity Building (US$2.6 million IDA). Provide support to training and facilitating partners (TFPs) for the activities in the following areas:

• Subgrants Implementation Cycle including, but not limited to: (i) community youth mobilization, (ii) participatory needs assessment, (iii) participatory planning and prioritization/selection of village investments, (iv) participatory management, (v) oversight and monitoring and participatory operations and maintenance;

• Social accountability and transparency, including (i) social audits to ensure that decisions under the Project are inclusive and poverty-focused; (ii) semiannual community scorecards for feedback on Project implementation; and

• Capacity Building for Improved Local Governance Practices: including, but not limited to: (i) provision of training of local stakeholders on the principles and practices of local governance; (b) provision of goods, technical assistance, and training, including village exchanges and other learning events for villages, jamoats, jamoat councilors and administrators, Jamoat Project Commissions and mahalla committee leaders on, inter alia, community engagement: participatory planning, project management, and oversight; and managing local finances.

34. This subcomponent aims to build national and local institutional capacity for empowering and mobilizing communities so they can genuinely engage in decision making around the utilization of subcomponent 1a-financed subgrants; community members will be encouraged to be continuously engaged throughout the cycle. The National Social Investment Fund of Tajikistan (NSIFT), the project’s implementing agency, will competitively procure one or more TFPs to conduct the activities in each region (see section 3: Implementation Arrangements). The design of the project cycle is based on the principles and approach laid out in the community support project (CSP) of the Central Asia South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade Project (CASA-1000), which NSIFT is implementing as well. Community members will be engaged in all stages of the subproject implementation cycle, with a particular emphasis on empowering women and youth.32 Subcomponent 1b will cover the cost of community meetings; community- and jamoat-level training workshops; village exchanges and other learning events; and capacity building for communities and jamoats carrying out the community mobilization and social accountability steps, including social audits and semiannual community scorecard activities. (See annex 2 for a detailed description of this subcomponent.) 35. Subcomponent 1c: Refurbishment of Youth Facilities (US$2.6 million IDA). Provide support for rehabilitation of and equipment for existing spaces for youth-inclusive services and livelihood activities.

36. This subcomponent will support the rehabilitation of and equipment for existing spaces, which will enable them to deliver local-level, youth-inclusive services and livelihood activities. NSIFT will directly procure the goods and works, including the refurbishment of youth facilities, and it will use local laborers and goods—furniture and equipment—whenever possible. Where appropriate, the youth facilities supported by this subcomponent will be rehabilitated with

32 The POM will provide detailed, step-by-step guidelines for this mobilization and engagement process, including methodology, target audience, location, timing, and gender targets.


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energy efficient equipment to reduce energy consumption. There will be a maximum cost ceiling of US$100,000 to refurbish each space. The financing is expected to cover up to 25 spaces in Khatlon and GBAO. 37. Prior to project effectiveness, the World Bank, in collaboration with NSIFT, will conduct a feasibility study that will identify the youth spaces to be rehabilitated in Khatlon and GBAO. The results of the feasibility study, including the final selection of youth facilities and the respective costing for their rehabilitation, will be included in the POM. The selection of youth facilities will be based on the following criteria: the size of the youth population in the catchment area of the spaces, cost effectiveness, and sustainability.

38. Among the youth spaces that might be refurbished under this subcomponent are the Centers for Additional Education under the Ministry of Education and Science, the Centers for Adult Education under the Ministry of Labor, and Youth Centers under the CYAS, suitable spaces identified in collaboration with district governments; and jamoat-level communal spaces. In the first year, the Project is expected to begin implementing activities in facilities that are in good condition and begin procuring rehabilitation contracts. In year two, youth activities will be expanded to multiple refurbished facilities. A precondition for the Project to finance rehabilitation will be for the institution, which owns a given space, to cover the cost of utilities during implementation. The Project will not finance utilities for the youth facilities. After the identification of spaces, NSIFT will assume responsibility for reaching an agreement with the GoT, local jamoat administrations, or other entities on the management, maintenance, and operations agreement during the implementation period and for a few years following project completion. This will ensure a sustainability plan based on an established partnership during and beyond the project’s duration.

39. Component 2: Youth Inclusion and Livelihoods (US$12.5 million IDA). This component will offer two sets of interrelated activities for disadvantaged and inactive young men and women aged 16–30 to increase their overall resilience to risks of exclusion, inactivity, and disaffection. The Project will use the following specific criteria in the seven districts to target beneficiaries for participation in the youth-inclusive services and livelihood activities: low-income, peri-urban, and rural youth who range in age from 15 to 30 and who are underemployed; NEET; returning migrants, especially those with reentry bans; and the heads of female-headed households (see Project Beneficiaries section). The Project will target a minimum of 50 percent female beneficiaries across all activities under component 2. It will finance youth-inclusive services; training (consulting services), and tools and equipment (goods) for livelihood activities (subcomponent 2b) in the seven target districts. The activities under the youth inclusion and livelihood component build on evidence from impact evaluations and lessons from previous operations that the World Bank has successfully supported to foster youth inclusion and micro-entrepreneurship in Europe and Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and other countries (see section: Lessons Learned).

40. Outreach. At the beginning of the Project, implementing partners (IPs) contracted by the implementing agency will provide outreach and information to communities and local governments on the objectives and content of the youth-inclusive services and livelihood activities. They will also help identify and invite eligible youth and women to apply as participants. The IPs will conduct this outreach with the assistance of mahalla committees, jamoat administrations and commissions, parent-teacher associations, student councils, and a cadre of volunteers from organizations such as the Youth Committee and the Red Cross, among others. The IPs and TFPs will aim to jointly deliver the outreach and communication activities of components 1 and 2 in overlapping jamoats and villages. IPs can then ensure that beneficiaries are properly registered.


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41. Subcomponent 2a: Youth-Inclusive Services (US$3.6 million IDA). Provide Training to selected youth on extracurricular activities, including the development of (i) soft skills—teamwork, communication, critical thinking, decision making, confidence building, peacebuilding, and problem solving; (ii) psychosocial support; (iii) gender equality training, including gender-based violence prevention training; and (iv) digital literacy skills—online training curriculum using freely available software. 42. This subcomponent will finance a training package to give targeted youth (up to age 30) access to extracurricular activities that encourage a shift in mindset that will increase their resilience to the risks of disaffection and violence. These activities increase the time that the youth spend in interactive activities and helps them gain new soft and digital literacy skills to complement their formal education.

43. Subcomponent 2b: Youth Livelihoods (US$8.9 million IDA). Provide technical assistance, Training and goods, including in-kind tools and equipment, for livelihood activities, regarding, but not limited to (i) detailed market analyses, (ii) basic accounting, (iii) preparation of business plans, (iv) entrepreneurial mindset and post-creation support for livelihood groups, including coaching and mentoring.

44. By financing tailored livelihood support services, this subcomponent aims to increase basic livelihood opportunities for disadvantaged young women and men who would not qualify for more capital-intensive entrepreneurship support. IPs will be responsible for delivering these services in each respective region. Items financed will include in-kind tools and equipment for youth to start basic economic activities but not matching grants for entrepreneurship because most young beneficiaries identified as vulnerable, particularly in the Khatlon region, cannot afford to make matching contributions. By providing tools and equipment, the Project will ensure that vulnerable youth receive access to training and actual livelihood opportunities. By ensuring the coverage of excluded youth, this subcomponent complements the private sector development activities supported by REDP, which target entrepreneurs with more capital.

45. The implementation sequence of subcomponent 2b. (i) IPs will conduct market analyses to identify possible products and services that livelihood groups could produce, where demand exists, and for which input costs could generate net profits that participating beneficiaries would consider adequate. (ii) IPs will provide tailored outreach and boot-camp training (that is, basic, short-duration training) to facilitate the preselection of eligible young men and women prior to their accessing more structured training. (iii) IPs will deliver livelihood trainings at the youth and jamoat spaces to eligible participants on business proposal development, basic accounting, and soft skills. (iv) Participants who complete the livelihood trainings will be invited to develop business proposals as individuals or as groups. (v) IPs will evaluate the proposals based on criteria described in the POM and will offer tools and equipment to participants with viable proposals.33 They will submit a detailed inventory of the requested tools and equipment, which NSIFT will procure

33 The tools and equipment may include: mechanical repair tools and toolboxes, plumbing tools, electrical tools and equipment; construction tools and materials, welding and metal work tools, shoemaking tools and equipment, work uniforms, personal safety equipment (safety glasses and masks, gloves, hard hats, welding shields, construction boots), sowing and weaving machines, hairdressing tools, equipment and materials, cooking ware for pastries, cosmetology tools and materials, beekeeping equipment, fruits and vegetable drying and packaging, and basic equipment for small goat cheese production. Where possible and applicable, computers may be provided for youth proposing to establish information technology service and repair businesses


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and deliver to them. They will then distribute the tools to the livelihood groups. (vi) In the post-creation period, IPs will provide continued support to the livelihood groups, including entrepreneurial mindset training, mentorship, and coaching. While the completion of subcomponent 2a’s youth-inclusive services training package is not a prerequisite for participation in the livelihood activities, about 30 percent subcomponent 2a beneficiaries are expected to benefit from subcomponent 2b as well. (See figure 2 in annex 2, which visualizes the sequence that beneficiaries will undergo, from their participation in boot camps, to their obtaining tools and equipment, to their receiving post-creation coaching.)

46. The Committee on Youth Affairs and Sports (CYAS) under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan will provide technical support to the Project Implementing Entity on the design of youth-related activities under this component in a consultative capacity and as set forth in the POM.

47. Component 3: Project Management and Monitoring and Evaluation (US$1.9 million IDA). Provide support for (i) Project management activities, including overall coordination and supervision of Project implementation, Project audits, and financing of Incremental Operating Costs, (ii) Project monitoring and evaluation activities, Project transparency and citizen feedback, and (iii) manage a Beneficiary Feedback Mechanism (BFM), including a Grievance Redress Mechanism (GRM).

48. Provide support to (i) develop communication materials, including the production of audiovisuals and informational materials on Project stages and activities; (ii) organize and conduct knowledge-sharing meetings about lessons learned and good practices across the Project Areas, as well as two cross-regional and/or national forums, such as exhibits, conferences, and youth dialogues.

49. The component will finance a project management team that includes experts in CDD, youth inclusion and livelihoods, citizen engagement, social accountability, civil engineering, project management, communications, procurement, financial management (FM), and M&E. This team will prepare annual workplans and budgets and oversee the design and implementation of the POM, including terms of reference for all staff and consultants and training manuals. Some project functions will be shared with CASA-1000’s CSP; component 3 will be designed to ensure synergies and efficiencies with the CASA-1000’s CSP-financed project management support.

50. Component 3 will support the implementation capacity of NSIFT and regional governor’s offices with respect to their strategic planning, donor coordination, results monitoring, and reporting functions. It will ensure regular coordination with national stakeholders, including the RMR national steering committee.

51. Additional resources will be provided under this component as needed to expand the NSIFT’s BFM, which was developed under CASA-1000’s CSP to address grievances, comments, and other feedback regarding the Project. Its design will include a safeguard-related GRM that will specify the systems and requirements for grievance redress, including uptake, sorting and processing, acknowledgement and follow-up, verification and action, and ultimately M&E. Testing options will be included for broader beneficiary feedback (e.g., through web-based platforms). Through CASA-1000’s CSP, NSIFT has established a unit tasked with this role, which reports to the executive director of NSIFT. The design and implementation of the BFM will gradually be adjusted over the life of the Project such that, by year three, it is a part of NSIFT central services.


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52. Communication. Component 3 will finance communication materials, including the production of audiovisuals and informational materials on the Project’s stages and activities. They will be tailored to various audiences, including jamoat administrations; district and provincial governments; and beneficiaries, with separate materials for young men and women. The component will finance the production of audiovisuals that reflect the experiences and success stories of beneficiaries and knowledge-sharing events. It will finance knowledge-sharing meetings about lessons learned and good practices across districts and regions during year three as well as two cross-regional and/or national forums, such as exhibits, conferences, and youth dialogues during year three or four.

53. M&E. Component 3 will support M&E activities to track, document, and communicate the progress and results of the Project. An M&E team within NSIFT will be responsible for overall compilation of this information. Component 3 will provide financing for NSIFT to prepare and submit to the World Bank quarterly and semiannual unaudited interim financial reports. The component will also finance a management and information system (MIS), which NSIFT will establish and utilize for project monitoring, automatic generation of project reports, project transparency (subproject information will be publicized on maps), and citizen feedback. Feedback and grievances received through the BFM will be included in the semiannual reporting.

54. Results measurements will be primarily focused on the outcomes defined in the results framework and the set of output indicators defined in the POM. Component 3 will finance baseline, midline, and endline project monitoring surveys to assess the results indicators of the project development objectives. NSIFT will be responsible for producing a completion report that draws on MIS data and surveys prior to Project completion.

C. Project Beneficiaries

55. The Project will target the Khatlon and GBAO regions, which have the highest levels of absolute and relative poverty measures, respectively, and which face fragility risks due to their proximity to unstable parts of Afghanistan, their large youth populations, disparities in service delivery outcomes, and legacies of violent conflict. The GoT selected the seven target districts of Vanj, Ishkoshim, and Shugnan in GBAO, and Kulyob, Panj, Hamadoni, and Farkhor in Khatlon based on the following criteria: (i) a shared border with Afghanistan; (ii) a relatively large population size; (iii) a combination of rural and urban areas; and (iv) limited coverage by other donor interventions. The Project design is a proof of concept for strengthening socio-economic resilience, which, if successful, could be replicated in other vulnerable districts in Tajikistan.

56. Component 1 will target all rural jamoats in the seven target districts. Each one of the approximately 375 villages in the target jamoats are eligible to apply for subgrant funding, either individually or jointly with other villages. An estimated three-quarters of villages with a population of approximately 449,94434—50 percent of whom are to be women—will benefit from component 1 investments. Because subcomponent 1a investments will finance public goods, all 599,925 individuals will likely benefit from the subgrant-financed activities. The TFPs and NSIFT will coordinate any energy efficiency-related investments with the REP project implementation unit (PIU) to ensure that the two

34 United Nations Development Program data of jamoat-level basic indicators for Republic of Tajikistan: http://untj.org/jambi-project/index.php/46-welcome/110-jambi-info. (Dushanbe, Tajikistan: United Nations Development Program, 2019).


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projects are not duplicating efforts and that the appropriate technical designs are applied. Subcomponent 1c will finance the refurbishment of some youth facilities located in areas where young people tend to be concentrated.

57. Component 2 will target disadvantaged and inactive young men and women ranging in age from 15 to 30 who live in both rural and urban jamoats within the target districts. An estimated 10,000 youth will benefit from subcomponent 2a’s youth-inclusive services, and an estimated 5,000 youth will benefit from subcomponent 2b’s livelihood activities, for a total of about 12,000 beneficiaries. While a critical mass of youth in the target districts will be eligible to participate in the youth-inclusive services and livelihood activities, the Project will not finance the refurbishment of youth centers in every jamoat that receives subcomponent 1a financing. (See figure 1 in annex 2 for an elaboration on the criteria for selecting jamoats within the target districts for the refurbishment of youth spaces.)


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D. Results Chain

Activities

Subgrants for investments in basic infrastructure and services, with an emphasis on climate change adaptation or mitigation and O&M

Training and capacity-building support for committee members and jamoat administrations

Establishment of VPCs and JPCs with 50% targets for youth and gender representation

Outputs

Increase in basic infrastructure and services

Jamoat committee members receive training in local governance processes

The planning and decision-making processes are inclusive, transparent and fair

Women’s priorities are prioritized for Project investments

Project-Level Outcomes

Greater participation in planning, decision-making and oversight

Improved access to transport/drinking water/electricity/ or irrigation

Perception that project-supported infrastructure met community’s needs

Higher-Level Objectives

Increased individual and community resilience

Reduced perceptions of exclusion

Activities

Refurbishment of youth-inclusive spaces

Extracurricular activities for youth

Training on livelihoods for youth

Tools and equipment for successful youth proposals

Outputs

Youth beneficiaries receive inclusive services – soft skills, psychosocial support, GBV prevention training, and digital literacy skills

Youth beneficiaries receive livelihoods training

Livelihood groups with successful proposals receive tools and equipment

Project-Level Outcomes

Youth beneficiaries utilize skills gained through the extracurricular activities

Youth beneficiaries including the female-heads of female-headed households continue their livelihood activity after a 12-month period

Component 2. Youth Inclusion and Livelihoods

Component 1. Local Development Initiatives


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E. Rationale for Bank Involvement and Role of Partners

58. SERSP will leverage the World Bank’s global experience in CDD and local governance capacity building, the ongoing CASA-1000’s CSP, and other local development investments in and experiences of climate mitigation, education, and agriculture in Tajikistan. There are several relevant past projects and ongoing activities involving CDD elements supported by development partners.

59. Many development partners, including the European Union (EU), Asian Development Bank, Swiss Development Cooperation (SDC), and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), are supporting sector-specific community structures, such as WUAs and agricultural cooperatives, as key local-level partners to maintain and operate local agriculture and irrigation projects. USAID, for example, under the Feed the Future Initiative (2004–14), provided small grants to select WUAs to finance limited improvements to irrigation and draining infrastructure and to fund intensive training and capacity building to enable the new WUAs to operate independently. Many of these development partners are also engaging with central government agencies in Dushanbe, including the local development committee, Ministry of Energy and Water Resources, Ministry of Agriculture, and State Unitary Enterprise (SUE), to design a strategy for the continued empowerment and institutionalization of these community-based, specialized structures. The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) is implementing the second phase of the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)-funded Project for Livelihood Improvement in Tajik–Afghan Cross-Border Areas (LITACA), as well as the Project for Promoting Cross-border Cooperation through Effective Management of Tajikistan's Border with Afghanistan.

The capacity-building work with jamoats and local community structures for this proposed Project will complement and leverage the local governance programming that UNDP and USAID are supporting.

60. The Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) is implementing the Supporting Cooperation and Opportunities for Regional Economic Development (SCORED) project, approved in June 2018, and aims to promote trade and expand economic ties along the Afghanistan–Tajikistan border. For over two decades, the Mountain Societies Development Support Program (MSDSP), a branch of the AKDN, has been using a participatory, community-based approach in the GBAO region to identify, prioritize, and implement basic infrastructure and service delivery projects and to subsequently support livelihoods and local economic development. Oxfam, Mercy Corps, and the SDC have implemented approaches similar to those of MSDSP in Tajikistan.

61. The World Bank is coordinating with USAID, SDC, the EU, JICA, and UNDP on rural development issues, such as agriculture and irrigation, water supply and sanitation, rural livelihoods, and village development programming focused on vulnerable women and youth. NSIFT and TFPs will coordinate closely with the SUE that is operating and regulating existing water and sanitation systems on the GoT’s behalf. SERSP investments in water supply and sanitation systems will also build on Bank-financed investments in sanitation facilities in Farkhor under the closed Municipal Infrastructure Development Project,35 ongoing JICA-financed activities in the water sector in Panj and Hamadoni districts, and ongoing government efforts to improve access to water and wastewater services in Kulob district. 62. SERSP will build on lessons and expertise from the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF), which has been pioneering implementing similar and relevant programs, including UPSHIFT, UPSKILLS, and

35 World Bank, Tajikistan—Municipal Infrastructure Development Project (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016).


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the Adolescent Development and Participation Program. Finally, SERSP will leverage local nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) that have been successfully delivering youth-inclusive services and livelihood support in the Project areas.

F. Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design

Component 1

72. Subgrant allocation of Project benefits should be based on transparent, objective criteria and be enough to ensure impact. The design will build on the World Bank’s extensive experience with CDD projects, including evidence of how essential it is to establish fair and transparent methods for allocating resources and to have effective communication early in the community mobilization phase. Subgrant allocations should be large enough to allow for the construction or rehabilitation of local infrastructure at a meaningful scale.

73. Community-driven approaches can deliver services and infrastructure in fragile, conflict-affected, violent, and high-risk contexts. Programs designed to engage communities and local institutions can deliver services and infrastructure and can even operate in remote and conflict-affected environments. CDD approaches are being increasingly used in such contexts. A 2015 Independent Evaluation Group report found that CDD was the most frequently used operational approach by the World Bank in fragile, conflict-affected, and violent situations.36 While CDD does not by itself solve or prevent conflict, it can ensure that development resources do not become sources of additional conflict by: (i) facilitating a participatory planning, needs assessment, decision-making, and oversight process that follows a clear and transparent set of rules; (ii) making deliberate efforts to engage groups that are often excluded from local decision-making processes and access to development resources; and (iii) targeting underserved regions and creating meaningful opportunities for community involvement in service delivery.37 SERSP has been designed to reflect lessons learned about managing risk through CDD, such as reinforcing the capacity and resilience of jamoats and mahallas; engaging youth in community-based activities; introducing innovative social accountability mechanisms; making investments in lagging regions and high-risk border areas; and conducting incremental assessments, dialogues, and capacity-building activities in border areas.

74. Formal and informal structures should be engaged through local government units and community organizations. Lessons from CDD operations point toward the need for actions that simultaneously support communities and local governments. SERSP incorporates this experience by specifically including capacity building for local institutions to foster civic participation and voice, improve local management of investments, and increase accountability. Recent analyses and evaluations underscore the risk of creating parallel community structures through CDD at the expense of building sustainable capacity for local governance as well as the importance of integrating CDD into broader governance and public service delivery reforms. In high-risk, fragile, conflict-affected, or violent settings, experience suggests the need for a hybrid of community and local government institutions with adequate capacity, empowered to deliver effective and sustainable CDD interventions. The design of SERSP will account for the limited local capacity and the nascence of decentralization in Tajikistan while it also relies on the promise of jamoat councils and

36 Independent Evaluation Group, Engagement in Situations of Fragility, Conflict and Violence (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2015). 37 World Bank, “Operationalizing the Pathways to Peace Study in Community Driven Development Operations,” Guidance Note (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018).


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mahalla committees to assume leadership and coordinating roles.

75. Ensuring capacity in the field requires effective facilitation that empowers community actors. Lessons from decades of CDD project implementation point toward the importance of skilled facilitators supporting communities, building their capacity to perform prescribed roles, and ensuring inclusion of groups usually marginalized from public affairs. The process of training and managing community facilitators and the intensity of their support to communities are critical to their effective performance. Throughout preparation, the Project has explored potential avenues for engaging stakeholders with track records of working with communities. The Project will ensure a sufficient number of facilitators with the time to support processes to empower communities that are inclusive of all, including women and other vulnerable groups. Facilitators will be well trained and provided with adequate technical and management support. Specific activities to bring youth to the forefront of these processes will ensure their central position and prevent their marginalization.

76. Relevant experience under World Bank-financed Social Investment Fund programs in Europe and Central Asia highlight how important oversight mechanisms are in ensuring high-quality and cost-effective community works projects. SERSP includes several measures to ensure that the delivery of infrastructure is high in quality, cost-effective, and sustainable. SERSP will rely on a variety of community mechanisms, including monitoring, scorecards, and social audits of subcomponent 1a-financed infrastructure and services. All stakeholders in local communities or jamoats, in addition to TFPs, will receive training in the principles and practices of local governance, including anticorruption assessments and process audits. They will participate in fraud and anticorruption training and sign user-friendly codes of ethics. NSIFT will conduct post procurement reviews of work quality, the use of appropriate design standards, and O&M arrangements for each sector. They will also conduct regular FM reviews and financial audits, and the design will incentivize jamoats to maximize the subgrant allocations.

Component 2

77. Subcomponent 2a of Component 2 builds on global experience and evidence that emphasize social, emotional, and soft skills, including critical thinking, as effective means of reducing violence and radicalization.38 For example, a growing body of evidence from the United States and Africa suggests that cognitive behavioral therapy focused on specific socio-emotional skills, self-control, and planning can be effective at reducing crime and violence.39 A recent impact evaluation from a USAID-funded youth program in Kenya found that bringing young men and women of different backgrounds together as youth groups and providing them with a combination of extracurricular activities (ranging from income-generating opportunities to community service and the arts) and training in leadership, entrepreneurship, and life skills, led to improvements in their self-esteem, self-confidence, and relationships with their communities.40 These efforts also contributed to the reduction in postelection violence and protests. The World Bank-financed Children and Youth Development Project in North Macedonia, aimed at preventing marginalization and

38 Liht, Jose and Sara Savage, “Preventing Violent Extremism through Value Complexity: Being Muslim Being British.” Journal of Strategic Security, 6 (4): 44–66 (2013). https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.6.4.3; S. Savage, A. Khan, and J. Liht, “Preventing Violent Extremism in Kenya through Value Complexity: Assessment of Being Kenyan Being Muslim.” Journal of Strategic Security, 7 (3), 1–26 (2014). 39 Blattman, Christopher and Laura Ralston, “Generating Employment in Poor and Fragile States: Evidence from Labor Market and Entrepreneurship Programs” (2015), available at: SSRN 2622220. 40 USAID, “Yes Youth Can! Impact Evaluation.” Final Impact Evaluation Report (Washington, DC: USAID, 2014).

https://doi.org/http:/dx.doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.6.4.3


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exposure to conflict among youth, organized project activities that gathered young men and women (aged 15–24) from diverse ethnic backgrounds into youth-friendly spaces (e.g., community centers) for training in information technology, English language skills, and basic livelihood skills. According to beneficiary surveys and the Project’s M&E system, the effort contributed to stronger friendships among youth from various ethnic backgrounds as well as lower rates of youth engagement in violent behavior and crime (e.g., school fights, bullying, and harassment). The Project also contributed to higher employability levels among participating youth.

78. Experience from Tajikistan with youth-inclusive services suggests that reaching NEETs, especially young women, requires robust outreach efforts and in some contexts the delivery of community-level training and services. Subcomponent 2a is building on the UNICEF-led UPSHIFT program, a youth empowerment initiative that is focused on problem solving, engagement, and social innovation and designed to build skills and opportunities among disadvantaged youth. The program combines social innovation workshops, mentorship, incubation, and seed funding to equip young people with the skills and resources they need to identify problems in their own communities, such as water-borne illnesses and the lack of basic digital literacy, and then to design solutions. UNICEF’s experience shows that limiting delivery of youth services to urban or peri-urban locations, including universities, excludes the most disadvantaged youth—those living in rural areas and young women who may need their parents to accompany them to the training. To address this concern, the proposed youth-inclusive services component will finance mobile teams to deliver services and livelihood activities to remote locations where there is a high percentage of vulnerable young men and women who otherwise could not travel to the nearest youth facility.

79. The design of subcomponent 2b builds on a large body of evidence suggesting that a capital injection—cash and capital goods—into fragile states stimulates employment and raises long-term earnings potential.41 For the Youth Opportunities Program in northern Uganda, the government invited men and women aged 18–35 to form groups of about 20 each and prepare proposals to receive vocational training and start individual enterprises. The groups received grants of nearly US$8,000 (almost US$400 per person). Four years later, an impact evaluation showed that among members of the groups that received grants, the number of hours they had worked was as much as 20 percent higher, and their earnings about 40 percent higher.42 A 2011 impact evaluation from Ghana finds that in-kind capital grants are more effective than cash grants for increasing the profits of initially profitable microenterprises. A substantial portion of the cash grants were spent on household consumption or were transferred outside of the household, especially if funds were given to women running very small businesses. This finding provides additional justification for the explicit design element of subcomponent 2b: to provide in-kind rather than cash grants.43 In Tajikistan, particularly GBAO, the experience of the NGO Madina in implementing livelihood activities suggest that in-kind contributions are more

41See Blattman, Christopher and Laura Ralston, “Generating Employment in Poor and Fragile States: Evidence from Labor Market and Entrepreneurship Programs” (2015), available at: SSRN 2622220. 42 Blattman, Christopher, Nathan Fiala, and Sebastian Martinez, “Generating Skilled Employment in Developing Countries” (2014). 43 Fafchamps, Marcel, David McKenzie, Simon R. Quinn, and Christopher Woodruff, “When is Capital Enough to get Female Microenterprises Growing? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in Ghana. Journal of Development Economics 106 (1), 211–26 (2014).


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effective than loans because young people often lack the funds needed to pay the interest.44 MSDSP demonstrates the proof-of-concept of livelihood activities for vulnerable young men and women.45

80. Subcomponent 2b will build on the promising findings and curriculum of a randomized control trial, which suggests that training focused on developing proactive and “entrepreneurial” mindsets leads to better outcomes, including higher earnings than traditional business training,46 for self-employed and small entrepreneurs in low-income countries.

81. The Project offers a comprehensive approach to youth inclusion and resilience by combining soft measures centered on mindset changes as a way to acquire skills, gain a sense of agency, and prevent violent behaviors with livelihood activities. Interventions in Iraq, Tunisia, and Morocco have illustrated the added value of a comprehensive approach to youth inclusion and resilience. For example, the World Bank Strengthening Micro-Entrepreneurship for Disadvantaged Youth Project in Morocco targeted disadvantaged youth in rural and urban areas who had no previous access to economic opportunities and delivered a combination of mentoring and micro-entrepreneurship support. The Project surpassed its targets. About 49 percent of young female beneficiaries reported that they were more ambitious and enthusiastic about the future. Sixty-five percent of the beneficiaries became entrepreneurs by establishing their own businesses or by forming cooperative enterprises with their peers. On the other hand, recent evidence from Lebanon’s National Volunteer Service Program, which successfully increased social cohesion and youth civic engagement across communities, revealed no direct impact of volunteering and soft skills training on youth employment but this might be because the program did not deliver livelihood interventions.

III. IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS

A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements

82. Implementing agency. In January 2019, the GoT confirmed the appointment of NSIFT as the implementing agency for the Project. NSIFT has a track record of implementing small-scale local-level projects and has a mandate to work with communities over the long term on a broad range of social investments, including poverty reduction and livelihood programs in SERSP Project areas. Launched in 1997 by order of the government and established in 2002, NSIFT has functioned for 20 years as an implementing agency for local-level development projects funded by donors.47 NSIFT is the designated implementing agency for CASA-1000’s CSP, which shares similar design features with SERSP regarding community and local-level approaches; it has an organizational charter; and it has permanent staff at its Dushanbe

44 Eurasia Foundation of Central Asia, “The Contribution of Positive Youth Development in Tajikistan to Effective Peacebuilding and to Countering or Preventing Violent Extremism: Successes, Limitations and Recommendations” (Eurasia Foundation of Central Asia, 2018). 45 In the second year of a USAID-financed project, Economic and Social Connections: A Multi-Input Area Development Financing Facility for Tajikistan, MSDSP created eight common interest groups with 108 members (79 women) and projected annual profits of $15,200 across Hamadoni, Farkhor, Panj, and Jaihun districts of southern Khatlon, and supported 12 existing groups with 178 members (134 women) and annual profits over US$23,000 in Eastern Khatlon and GBAO. 46 Campos, Francisco, et al., “Teaching Personal Initiative Beats Traditional Training in Boosting Small Business in West Africa.” Science (September 22, 2017): 1287–90. 47 From 1997 to 2006, NSIFT implemented the Poverty Alleviation Projects (P044202 and P082977), financed by the World Bank; both were satisfactorily implemented in fiduciary and technical terms. NSIFT currently implements Community Funds for the Promotion of Basic Education and Rehabilitation of Community Infrastructure program, financed by the German Development Bank (KfW).


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central office and at two local offices in Khatlon (Kushoniyon and Kulob). NSIFT is supported by the GoT in terms of its premises and utilities and is directly under its control.

83. NSIFT Project Management Team. Within three months after the Effective Date and thereafter NSIFT will establish and maintain throughout the implementation of the Project, a Project management team with adequate staff and resources. The Project management team should include, inter alia, a Project coordinator, a procurement specialist, an FM specialist, a head engineer, environmental and social safeguard specialists, youth inclusion and livelihood specialists, CDD specialists, and social accountability specialists.

84. NSIFT will manage all aspects of safeguards, procurement, and supervision; perform all fiduciary tasks and necessary coordination of institutional support with oblasts and districts; and conduct consolidated reporting and project management tasks as outlined in the POM. NSIFT will be responsible for M&E; the beneficiary feedback mechanism, including the GRM; and project-related communications and outreach. NSIFT will open its own designated account and will finance all taxes, except value-added tax and customs duties.

85. SERSP’s Project team will draw on its staff and capabilities, and the Project will contribute to an agreed-on set of central administrative costs. Staffing capacity for CDD, youth development, and MIS will be critical to ensuring that NSIFT can implement and oversee a successful implementation of SERSP investments. NSIFT will appoint qualified expert staff to meet the World Bank’s requirements for environmental and social safeguards. A schedule of staffing and consulting appointments has been agreed on, and terms of reference will be included in the POM.


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Figure 3. Implementation Structure

86. National level. The GoT will establish a national-level steering committee to oversee the three projects comprising the Tajikistan RSP within three (3) months of Project effectiveness. The steering committee will serve as the highest level consultative and decision-making body responsible for strategic guidance, coordination, implementation support, and interlinkages between the individual projects which form part of the World Bank’s RSP and the relevant GoT’s strategic policy priorities and reforms. The steering committee would assist both the GoT, the WBG, and other stakeholders to effectively implement the IDA18 RMR and achieve the envisaged results. The GoT’s decentralization framework and local governance reforms encompass strengthening the capacity of jamoats and mahallas, increasing their responsibilities and resources, and improving service delivery and private sector development at the local level. The steering committee will meet regularly to review progress under the RMR program. The steering committee will establish working groups to allow for more focused technical discussions on each individual RMR project, as needed.

87. Regional level. NSIFT staff based in Bokhtar (the regional capital of Khatlon) in Kushoniyon district and Khorog (the regional capital of GBAO) in Shugnon district will coordinate and regularly report to the regional governors on Project implementation plans, progress, results, and challenges.


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88. District level. District administrations have a role in the O&M of subgrant-financed investments and youth facilities. Thus, NSIFT staff (or TFP staff) will ensure that content of jamoat development plans are aligned with and do not duplicate district development plans. O&M plans included in subproject design will lay out the responsibilities of the relevant district-level authorities regarding the O&M of infrastructure investments.

89. Local self-governing bodies. Jamoats will play a key role in the Project, working with the communities, NSIFT, TFPs, and district authorities in local development planning and subproject implementation, including community procurement. For subcomponents 1a and 1b, the jamoats—legal entities established under the 2009 Law on Self Governance in a Town or Township (article 3, clause 2)—will establish JPCs (as article 10 provides) to implement the subprojects located in the territory administered by the jamoat. Each JPC will consist of five to nine voluntary members representing the target villages in the jamoat. Strict membership criteria will apply to ensure the engagement of village project committee (VPC) representatives (see annex 2), an equal number of men and women, and youth, as well as the necessary financial and technical specialists and NGO representatives. Through its chairperson, the jamoat will be required to delegate the following responsibilities to the JPC: (i) support and represent the target communities in the subproject implementation process and contribute to the identification of potential beneficiaries for subcomponents 2a and 2b as defined in the POM; (ii) endorse subproject(s) for funding during each cycle and the refurbishment of spaces under subcomponent 2a, ensuring alignment with the jamoat development plan; (iii) inform NSIFT of target communities subproject selections; (iv) develop subproject proposal(s), including safeguard-related requirements; (v) coordinate with NSIFT on the technical designs of the selected subprojects and offer advice regarding the refurbishment of spaces for youth and women; (vi) carry out procurement functions or request that NSIFT do so on their behalf as defined in the SGM; (vii) oversee contract execution; (viii) propose and implement O&M plans and resolve issues related to ownership and functionality; and (ix) coordinate with relevant stakeholders—line departments, utilities, NGOs, and districts. The JPC will also prepare documentation for signing by the jamoat chairperson as defined in the SGM. Terms of reference for the commission will be included in the POM, and all members will sign a code of conduct.

90. At the community level, mahalla committees (or other relevant community-based organizations), will establish VPCs in target villages and areas to mobilize communities, support community capacity building, and lead the selection and implementation of subproject activities. The membership of the VPC will include mahalla committee members along with additional elected/nominated community members to ensure equal representation of women on the committee. Where possible, 50 percent of the members should be under the age of 30. Committees are expected to vary in size from eight to 20 members, given the significant variation in the populations of target communities. The requirements for the establishment of VPCs and the process for participatory nomination of members will be included in the POM, and their role in subproject implementation will be included in the SGM. The gender section further explains the representation of women in VPCs.

91. To strengthen NSIFT capacity to understand and carry out genuine CDD, one or more experienced TFPs will support the implementation of component 1. The selected partner will have a track record of implementing the CDD methodology (outlined in subcomponent 1b), be familiar with global best practices to this approach, have experience in social accountability (outlined in subcomponent 1b), be able to attract experienced credible consultants that can support capacity building for local governance (outlined in subcomponent 1b), and have proven experience working on CDD in FCV areas. To build local capacity and ensure context-specific knowledge, the TFPs will also have experience


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working in the target areas and will preferably involve local NGOs that are already established and functioning there. NGOs are expected to form a consortium to meet these criteria. The TFPs will design and carry out the development of all capacity-building, facilitation, and TA activities for three sets of activities; support NSIFT staff; and mobilize at least 49 community development advisors. They will be recruited through an open and competitive procurement process as early as possible in the Project cycle. The final determination will be made immediately after effectiveness as described in the Project Procurement Strategy for Development (PPSD). The chosen TFPs will work closely with NSIFT, with coordination and accountability mechanisms established at the regional and national levels and described in the POM. The POM will include the terms of reference for the TFPs.

92. IPs will support the implementation of Component 2 and will be responsible for outreach and communication, curricula adaptation, training of trainers, and quality control of the actual delivery of these activities to beneficiaries in up to 20 locations within selected districts of Khatlon and GBAO. With a view toward ensuring that youth from particularly isolated areas can access the activities, IPs will deploy trainers who will travel to remote areas with kits containing learning materials. IPs are encouraged to subcontract with local NGOs and community-based organizations that are well known in their respective districts and communities to ensure effective outreach and selection of beneficiaries for the youth-inclusive services offered under the Project. The IPs will also be responsible for providing capacity building to staff of local CAEs, teachers, and counsellors who may continue to provide these services beyond the life of the Project. IPs will offer training about violence prevention, including GBV, to secondary school teachers, parents, and the staff of local public facilities—such as the CAEs and youth facilities (physical facilities with dedicated space for extracurricular activities and youth training). The IPs will roll out the youth-inclusive services incrementally, with an initial menu of soft and digital skills offered in selected CAEs that require limited rehabilitation works. Selected CAEs will be located in the district’s urban centers, where, according to stakeholder consultations, the largest portion of youth reside. Further, while the IPs will be responsible for delivering the services to a target of 10,000 beneficiaries over the course of the Project, in its first year, the target is only 10 percent—or 1,000 beneficiaries. In the Project’s fourth year, the target will increase to 40 percent.

93. Committee on Youth Affairs and Sports (CYAS) under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan. For the purposes of carrying out the youth-related activities under Part 2 of the Project (Component 2), the Recipient, through the Project Implementing Entity, shall ensure a technical support role of the CYAS in a consultative capacity and as set forth in the POM. In this respect, NSIFT will appoint its youth livelihoods specialist as responsible for coordinating with the CYAS to obtain and incorporate the CYAS’s inputs on technical documents. The technical support role will focus on youth policy guidance but will not include fiduciary responsibilities, including those relating to procurement of activities, preparation of bidding documents, or the selection of consulting services or other service providers.

94. With regard to the implementation of social and environmental standards, NSIFT will: (i) support the JPC with information and capacity building, including the environmental criteria and procedures for conducting the environmental and social impact assessments; (ii) conduct environmental and social screening and evaluation of subproject eligibility from a safeguards perspective; (iii) communicate and coordinate with authorities competent in conducting an environmental assessment, such as the Committee on Environmental Protection; (iv) ensure proper implementation of the environmental management plan and checklist requirements as well as social due diligence tasks during the realization of the subprojects; (v) address complaints and feedback from project stakeholders and the public, including grievances regarding the environmental and social impacts of subprojects; (vi) supervise—independently or


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jointly with the state ecological inspectorate—environmental protection and mitigation measures stipulated in the environmental management plans; (vii) monitor environmental impacts as part of overall monitoring of the subproject implementation; and (viii) report on environmental and social impacts that originate during subproject implementation and analyze the efficiency of mitigation measures applied to minimize any negative consequences. NSIFT and the JPCs, along with subproject implementors and beneficiaries, are responsible for the implementation of the safeguard-related activities.

95. The POM explains in detail the technical aspects of each component, FM and procurement procedures, and the monitoring arrangements and reporting requirements for each indicator, mitigating the risk of delays or unintended decisions during implementation. All training manuals will form part of the operations manual. A SGM that defines the required subgrant implementation processes under subcomponent 1a will be an integral part of the POM. The submission of a POM in form and substance acceptable to the Bank is a condition of Project effectiveness.

B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation Arrangements

96. Results monitoring will be based on the indicators defined and detailed in the results framework. Working closely with field staff, NSIFT’s M&E staff will be responsible for results monitoring using three approaches to measuring progress and results. First, NSIFT will ensure the collection of defined information for regular Project reporting, including the component output measures in the Project description, other implementation progress, safeguard risks, and readouts from the BFM. NSIFT staff will enter this information in the MIS. Second, TFPs will facilitate the processes of community monitoring for component 1, including a regular readout on citizen engagement indicators measured through component 1’s participatory processes; all information will be collated and summarized at the national level. Third, the Project will conduct baseline, midline, and endline surveys with Project beneficiaries, using a firm hired by NSIFT. Semiannual progress reports will be available 45 days after the end of each reporting period and will include the output indicators described in this document as well as updates on the results framework indicators. The POM will include an M&E section that defines the methodology for measuring each indicator, formulated to the World Bank’s satisfaction.

C. Sustainability

97. For component 1 investments, the implementation arrangements are developed to build sustainable capacity for the relevant national agency (NSIFT) and local self-governing bodies. At the local level, sustainability relies on the ownership and commitment of communities, created and strengthened through the community mobilization process with participatory planning and decision making, as well as active participation in monitoring. As a part of the subproject selection, JPCs will ensure each subproject has met 100 percent functionality requirements and applies simple and robust technical solutions along with necessary mitigation and adaptation measures to enhance resilience towards climate change, which will be monitored through technical checklists developed for the POM, including operational requirements (e.g., assignment of staff). Upon completion, socio-economic infrastructure will be handed over to relevant line departments or to the jamoats. Community O&M committees will be established as a part of the VPCs to supplement the responsibility of district line departments. During the Project, engineers and monitors will conduct regular field visits to completed projects and help develop the capacity of communities for O&M.


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98. To ensure the sustainability of component 2, the GoT is expected to fund the salaries of at least one staff member per rehabilitated youth-inclusive space, in addition to utilities and computer and printer equipment maintenance during and beyond the Project implementation period. The Project will ensure that the youth-inclusive services are sustainable by obtaining the Ministry of Education’s buy-in for the curriculum at the outset. The Project will finance and deliver curricula that the Ministry of Education is interested in scaling-up through its extracurricular Centers of Additional Education, while also piloting additional curricula, for demonstration, such as the prevention of GBV and violent extremism, which could subsequently lead to mainstreaming at a larger scale. As a first step, SERSP will foster a public-NGO partnership with the Ministry of Labor, Migration, and Employment’s local offices and centers for vocational training to introduce a livelihood training curriculum.

IV. PROJECT APPRAISAL SUMMARY

A. Technical, Economic, and Financial Analysis

Economic and Financial Analysis

99. An economic and financial analysis has been carried out for the Project’s CDD elements and its youth-inclusive services component. Given the demand-driven nature of the CDD design selected during each investment cycle and the lack of experience in Tajikistan with CDD projects, it is not possible to accurately, determine in advance, the type of village subprojects that will be funded nor, therefore, its return. However, predictable elements of the subgrants were used to conduct an economic analysis, and assumptions based on consultations with local communities were used to calculate the net present value (NPV) and economic internal rate of return (EIRR). The base EIRR for the village infrastructure investments, based on assumed proportions of electricity, water, education, health, irrigation, and small economic investments, is estimated at 34 percent, ranging from 1 percent for medical points to 167 percent for road rehabilitation during a 15-year postimplementation period. The NPV of the Project’s net benefit stream discounted at 10 percent is US$63.8 million, which is consistent with other CDD project estimates and ex-post analyses. The EIRR is in line with the global average for CDD investments and community-based programming in the Kyrgyz Republic and estimates for CASA-1000, the community support project in the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan. Nevertheless, this is a cautious estimate that assumes low economic benefits for a limited number of beneficiaries and does not factor in the indirect benefits of better health and schooling. It also demonstrates a sound benefit to cost ratio and provides a base-case scenario that can be tested after the fact. Sensitivity analysis shows that the Project is rather robust and moderately sensitive to changes in key assumptions. Benefits would have to decline to 50 percent from their assumed value for the Project to generate an EIRR of only 10 percent.

100. Youth-inclusive services and livelihoods. The Project allocation for the subcomponent on the provision of youth-inclusive services, such as training for the development of soft skills, violence prevention, digital literacy skills, and psychosocial services, is US$3.6 million. The Project allocation for the refurbishment of selected youth facilities is US$2.4 million. Projecting that the benefits of these activities will be derived both during the Project as well as many years after, the net benefits are estimated at over US$15 million. The estimated NPV for subcomponent 2a is US$9.97 million, and the EIRR is estimated at 39 percent. Assuming the social discount rate of 10 percent, these economic analysis indicators provide solid justification for supporting investments under this subcomponent.


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101. The expected Project allocation for the subcomponent on youth livelihoods is US$9.0 million. This subcomponent will provide livelihood training in the form of applied livelihood and microbusiness development training sessions as well as in-kind tools and equipment to help improve the socio-economic conditions and resilience of target groups. At least 60 percent of this subcomponent’s budget is planned for the four selected districts in Khatlon, and 40 percent to the three in GBAO. Activities are expected to lead to several economic and social benefits such as: (i) income-generating opportunities and improvement in living standards; (ii) empowerment of target groups to manage their own resources in a more efficient manner; and (iii) enhanced community capability to prioritize, plan, and implement proposed economic activities. They are expected to generate a range of benefits, including increased incomes, productive investments with possible links to local markets, and increased skills for beneficiaries. Vulnerable returning migrants and male youth will acquire skills that that will make them more employable if they decide to migrate as opportunities arise. Vulnerable women will benefit economically by increasing their incomes. Assuming the benefits of the investments and activities under this subcomponent will flow even beyond the Project timeframe, investing US$9.97 million for four or five years would result in net benefits of around US$17.9 million for the period up to 2035. Applying the 10 percent social cost of capital, the NPV would be an estimated US$6 million, with an EIRR of 32 percent. Both the NPV and EIRR values provide solid evidence to support the investments under this subcomponent. These calculations can be updated when the actual cost of subprojects and grants are known.

Technical Assessment

102. The following sections outline the rationale behind SERSP’s technical design. The Project aims to strengthen resilience at the regional, community, and individual levels by targeting areas in the country that face a confluence of risk factors and vulnerabilities; strengthening local self-governing bodies and community-based structures to adopt participatory, inclusive approaches to planning, prioritizing, managing, and overseeing the implementation of locally-identified infrastructure and services; and providing a comprehensive package of social services and livelihood support to at-risk individuals to address risks associated with violence and radicalization. An alternative approach of delivering local infrastructure and services would be a district government-led approach toward financing larger-scale investments; it was not pursued because it would not have provided opportunities to build capacity for inclusive community engagement among local self-governing bodies or mahalla committees or to increase the role of youth and women in local decision-making—processes deemed critical in light of the risks associated with local exclusion risks.

103. The Project is technically challenging in Tajikistan for three primary reasons. First, the GoT has not adopted the CDD methodology at scale. Taking an incremental and regional approach and building on the design of CASA-1000’s CSP, the Project includes core CDD activities, including step-by-step community mobilization, a set of simple social accountability and transparency activities, and a set of local government capacity-building activities to strengthen linkages to the government. The subgrants distribution formula was calculated to maximize impact and build deeper capacity in target areas through repetition. The community-led subprojects that would be implemented under component 1’s subgrants involve simple construction methods. NSIFT will carry out all technical designs, liaising with relevant authorities to ensure that investments comply with all applicable standards and specifications and that postconstruction O&M plans (staffing and utilities maintenance) supported them. Technical checklists in the POM will build on the Central Asian experience to ensure the functionality and appropriateness of the design.


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104. Second, NSIFT has limited technical capacity to deliver CDD and youth-inclusive services and livelihoods at a large scale. The Project will rely on NSIFT for most FM and will leverage its existing infrastructure capacity for subproject design and implementation. NSIFT will contract the services of specialized agencies in Tajikistan to carry out the advanced community mobilization activities, such as mobilizing VDCs and JPCs that include minimum representations of youth and women and capacity building training for JPCs. Specialized agencies will deliver the youth-inclusive services and livelihood support and provide training and capacity-building support to NSIFT.

105. Third, the Project implementation arrangements will find effective synergies between the local government and community-level interventions of component 1 and the individual-level interventions of component 2 to achieve maximum impact for youth and women. Project design features include increasing the representation of youth and women in local decision-making bodies, including the use of subproject prioritization criteria that provide greater weight to the needs of youth and women, and engaging the same set of local stakeholders in the process of identifying youth and women to participate in component 2 activities. The outputs of the business development services provided under component 2 will be used to inform village- and jamoat-level development planning activities under component 1 in areas that overlap geographically.

B. Fiduciary

(1) Financial Management

106. The FM assessment of NSIFT was conducted in accordance with the Financial Management Manual for World Bank Investment Project Financing Operations (2010, revised 2017). Overall, arrangements at the selected implementing agency are adequate to implement the Project and meet the minimum requirements of the World Bank’s Policy and Directive on Investment Project Financing. However, several requirements will need to be met prior to Project implementation. As a condition of effectiveness, the World Bank must find the FM sections of the POM acceptable, including the SGM, which describes the flow of funds and internal control over subgrants under component 1. The subgrant agreement model form will be included in the SGM, and each subgrant will be provided based on the conclusion of a subgrant agreement. NSIFT’s approval of the POM’s SGM, as well as the appointment of accountants, will constitute the minimum requirements for the target jamoats to receive funds from NSIFT in year four. NSIFT will be responsible for assessing FM capacity and then establishing and maintaining adequate capacity and arrangements in the jamoats that are receiving funds. These requirements will be documented in the SGM. Until jamoats have the necessary FM capacity, NSIFT will fully implement the FM functions under the subgrant components. The World Bank will closely monitor Project implementation and capacity building at the jamoat level and will monitor the implementation of subgrants, particularly the eligibility and selection process of beneficiaries. NSIFT’s internal audit function will play a significant role in reviewing the flow of funds and will exert substantial control over subgrants. An external auditor will review the Project subgrants.

107. The overall FM residual risk rating for the Project is substantial. NSIFT will need to update its existing 1C software for accounting and reporting under the Project within 60 days following Project effectiveness and hire additional FM and accounting staff acceptable to the Bank within 90 days following Project effectiveness to manage the increased workload. Regarding the FM covenants to be included in the disbursement and financial information letter, the following should be considered: (i) unaudited interim financial report formats have been agreed on with NSIFT, and interim


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financial reports will be submitted to the World Bank within 45 days from the end of the calendar quarter; and (ii) the Project’s annual audited financial statements will be submitted to the World Bank within six months following the end of the audit period. Independent auditors acceptable to the World Bank and funded by the Project will conduct the audit; and the extended terms of reference for CDD projects will be reagreed with the Bank. One designated account will be opened in a commercial bank or financial institution acceptable to the World Bank. The POM will include details of the FM arrangements, including the formats of the interim financial report. The disbursement and financial information letter will provide details regarding the disbursements.

(2) Procurement

108. The World Bank’s Procurement Regulations for Investment Project Financing Borrowers (July 2016, revised November 2017 and August 2018) will govern procurement under the Project, which will also be subject to the Bank’s Anti-Corruption Guidelines (July 2016). In accordance with the regulations, the borrower has prepared a PPSD to identify the most appropriate procurement approach for the Project.

109. Initial analysis of the PPSD shows that procurement activities and packages envisaged under the Project are standard in nature and primarily low in value. The PPSD, including the procurement plan for the Project’s duration, will be discussed with the World Bank team during the appraisal process and finalized through negotiations.

110. The current assessment of the overall procurement risk under the Project is high. The risk rating is based on a procurement capacity assessment that the World Bank conducted using the Procurement Risk Assessment and Management System (P-RAMS); past and ongoing experiences with Bank-financed projects in Tajikistan, including CDD operations; existing capacity of the implementing agency in handling procurement; and the public procurement environment.

111. Identified key issues and risks concerning procurement at this stage include: (i) procurement and implementation delays due to a lack of resources and capacity to implement two similar projects at different locations at the same time; (ii) limited procurement capacity at the community level; (iii) lack of contract monitoring and management skills and tools; (iv) limited capacity to conduct procurement based on Procurement Regulations; and (v) an overall high-risk public procurement environment.

112. Given the above risks and based on the lessons learned from the previous projects, the following preliminary risk-mitigation measures are proposed: (i) strengthen implementation capacity and devote additional resources to support NSIFT with project oversight and procurement; (ii) conduct careful procurement planning and advance preparation of procurement documents; (iii) build procurement capacity at the community level; (iv) prepare operational and subgrants operational manuals with a detailed descriptions of the Project’s procurement processes; and (v) set up an efficient contract monitoring mechanism.

113. Use of national procurement procedures. In accordance with paragraph 5.3. of the Procurement Regulations, when approaching the national market (as agreed in the Procurement Plan), the Tendering with Unlimited Participation procurement method and other national procurement arrangements such as tendering with limited participation, request for quotations, direct contracting set forth in the law of the Republic of Tajikistan, Оn Public Procurement of Goods, Works and Services (No. 168, March 3, 2006, as amended by Introduction of Amendments and Additions to the


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Law of the Republic of Tajikistan on “Public Procurement of Goods, Works and Services,” April 16, 2012), may be used, subject to the conditions referred to in the procurement plan.

114. The CDD approach and procurement by the communities will follow Procurement Regulations paragraph 6.52 and Annex XII - Selection Methods, paragraphs 6.9 and 6.10. The procurement arrangements at the community level and oversight mechanism will be detailed in the subgrants operational manual.

C. Legal Operational Policies.

.

Triggered?

Projects on International Waterways OP 7.50 Yes

Projects in Disputed Areas OP 7.60 No .

D. Environmental and Social.

.

The environmental and social risks are rated 'moderate' and 'substantial respectively. This renders overall risk 'Substantial'. On the social front, the project is expected to result in positive impacts for communities and, in particular, youth in the fragile and conflict-ridden regions. A variety of risks are evident, some are external and others internal to the project. Key social risks relate to 'exclusion' which may happen due to geographical setting, socio economic setting, gender differentials. A quick and rapid Social Assessment conducted during preparation has enabled not only in informing the project design but also in identifying the factors that aid/ constrain 'inclusion. Accordingly, mitigatory measures, in terms of institutional and implementation arrangements, have been drawn. Efficacy of these measures depend upon the performance of NGOs who will be enlisted to provide social intermediation services. The NGO deployment, however, will happen only during the implementation. On securing lands, while project would make use of the existing buildings or unused public lands, as a backup measure, a RPF has been developed. This framework guides the project in acquiring lands (if need be) during the implementation by detailing how RPF will be transformed into Resettlement Action Plans. The environmental risk was initially rated Substantial based on the large number of activities to be financed in remote and fragile areas where local capacity for mitigating environmental risks is low. As the preparation advanced, it is rated Moderate as the physical works envisaged under both components 1 and 2 are of small to medium scale and the associated environmental impacts are expected to be temporary, predictable, and easily mitigable. Overall, towards addressing the risks, the following instruments have been developed: (i) ESMF; (ii) Stakeholder Engagement Plan (SEP); (iii) Social Management Plan.

.

115. The International Waterways OP (7.50) is triggered since the Project might finance subprojects for the rehabilitation of on-farm irrigation, rural water supply, and sanitation. Investments will be made within the original boundaries and design parameters of the irrigation and water supply and sanitation schemes, and no new water


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abstraction will be supported. The Project will not adversely change the quality or quantity of water flows nor will it be

adversely affected by the other riparian’s possible water use. Based on this, an exception to the external notification requirements of this OP for the Project was obtained by the Regional Vice President for Europe and Central Asia on April 12, 2019.

116. Grievance redress. Communities and individuals who believe that they are adversely affected by a World Bank-supported project may submit complaints to existing project-level grievance-redress mechanism or the to the World Bank’s Grievance Redress Service (GRS). The GRS ensures that complaints received are promptly reviewed to address project-related concerns. Project-affected communities and individuals may submit their complaint to the World Bank’s independent Inspection Panel which determines whether harm occurred, or could occur, as a result of World Bank noncompliance with its policies and procedures. Complaints may be submitted at any time after concerns have been brought directly to the World Bank's attention, and Bank Management has been given an opportunity to respond. For information on how to submit complaints to the World Bank’s GRS, please visit http://www.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/products-and-services/grievance-redress-service. For information on how to submit complaints to the World Bank Inspection Panel, please visit www.inspectionpanel.org.

117. Environmental and Social Framework instrument disclosure. The Implementing Agency disclosed an in-country draft of the ESMF and Resettlement Policy Framework (RPF) on April 4, 2019, followed by a draft SEP on April 8, 2019, both in English and local languages. In-country consultations on the ESMF, RPF, and SEP were held in GBAO and Khatlon between April 8 and 12, 2019. The final drafts of the three documents in English and local languages were disclosed publicly through the Bank’s image bank system on April 16, 2019.

E. Citizen Engagement, Gender, and Climate Change

118. Citizen engagement. The Project will ensure citizen engagement throughout the Project cycle. Under component 1, communities will carry out participatory needs assessments and engage in participatory decision-making processes to prepare subprojects that reflect the priorities of and are relevant to beneficiaries. To ensure that the jamoat and mahalla committees are accountable for resources and responsive to the preferences and needs of community members, including vulnerable groups, the Project will support capacity-building for local government and community officials on how to engage with citizens and deliver services efficiently, fairly, and in response to the needs of citizens, including youth and women. The Project will train youth in conducting social audits and reporting back to the target communities on the progress of implementing the subproject over the year, the breakdown of expenditures, and any financial or technical audit findings. This type of event will provide a public forum for communities and their representatives to present problems and express grievances or other issues regarding the Project. Under component 2, Youth inclusion and Livelihoods, the Project will convene dialogues among youth and other stakeholders throughout its duration, put in place a feedback mechanism for beneficiaries and others to submit complaints, suggestions, or requests for information, and develop innovative approaches to reflect on Project activities with beneficiary groups. Indicators will be included in the results framework to measure perceptions of effectiveness of these engagement processes and Project investments.

119. Gender. The Project will focus on closing four gender gaps: (i) voice and participation in community-level and local governance decision making; (ii) access to services; (iii) livelihood opportunities; and (iv) GBV. (Annex 3 describes the

http://www.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/products-and-services/grievance-redress-service

http://www.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/products-and-services/grievance-redress-service

http://www.inspectionpanel.org/


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gender context, activities, and proposed tracking.)

120. Gender-based violence. The Project’s assessed GBV risk is moderate. Significant labor influxes are not anticipated; most workers are expected to be from local communities or other parts of Tajikistan. However, many subprojects will be implemented in remote, rural areas, where awareness and GBV-related support services may be limited. The capacity of PIU staff and contractors to adequately address GBV issues is also expected to be weak. The Project will undertake awareness-raising measures, using specialized NGOs or service providers, to sensitize all direct and contracted workers and members of beneficiary communities on GBV-related risks. A code of conduct with clear enforcement measures will be prepared for the Project, which all Project staff and contractor employees will sign. The code of conduct will be widely publicized in beneficiary communities and around specific civil works sites. Project and Contractor’s Environmental and Social Management Plan will include provisions to minimize GBV-related risks, including separate, safe, and easily accessible facilities for women and men, and visible display of signs around the Project sites that indicate intolerance for any behaviors that could be associated with GBV. The Project will ensure that safe and confidential channels for reporting GBV-related concerns will be made available to Project workers and communities.

121. Climate-related co-benefits. The Project is designed to address the country’s climate change vulnerability and disaster risks which have been identified by the climate change and disaster risk screening. Mean annual temperatures are projected to be 2°C warmer by 2050. Projections predict drier winters and wetter summers, which could lead to an increase in both flooding and droughts. By 2050, up to 30 percent more of Tajikistan’s glaciers will probably retreat or disappear, which might increase the risk of sudden floods from glacier lake outbursts as snow and glaciers quickly melt. Khatlon and GBAO are exposed to such fragility climate change risks and suffered from floods and mudflow in spring and drought. To address this vulnerability, the Project will contribute to both climate adaptation and mitigation efforts. Under the Paris Climate Agreement, Tajikistan’s international climate change commitment (Nationally Determined Contribution, NDC) consists of a flexible target not to exceed 80–90 percent of 1990 levels by 2030 as a contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The scope of commitments includes climate resilience and adaptation measures related to water resource management, such as the planning and development of green infrastructure in water systems, new methods and planning for water resource management, and dissemination of knowledge and experience regarding climate change at multiple levels.

122. As part of climate change adaptation measures, the Project’s components will support the rehabilitation of on-farm irrigation systems to deal with the risk of droughts. The rehabilitation of village-level water supply and sanitation systems will reduce nonrevenue water, easing water scarcity. For climate change mitigation, the Project will finance energy-efficiency measures, such as energy-efficient water pumps for public buildings. Schools, health clinics, and kindergartens rehabilitated under component 1a will include insulated doors and windows to reduce heat loss and energy-efficient appliance and equipment to reduce energy consumption. These measures will reduce the use of energy sources that emit more greenhouse gases, such as wood, petroleum, and kerosene. The Project will also promote an introduction of renewable energy to communities. For example, in the mountainous desert where Murgab district in GBAO is located, there is an average of 300–320 sunny days per year—favorable conditions for solar energy. The indicator “percent of subprojects that support climate change adaptation or mitigation” will ensure the Project co-benefit by monitoring the Project progress toward the Project outcome.

123. Subcomponent 1b will support local governments to engage communities in participatory decision making about


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investments in basic infrastructure that is climate-resilient (resilient to floods, mudflow and drought) and energy efficient. Subcomponent 1b will support disaster risk plans and preparedness at the local level. In particular, awareness-building activities under subcomponent 1b will help promote behavior change and household investments that improve energy efficiency; and local capacity building could provide information to manage natural disaster risks and climate change impacts. Subcomponent 1c will support youth facilities, which will be rehabilitated with energy efficient equipment to reduce energy consumption. Under subcomponent 2b, business plan preparation support and entrepreneurial mindset activities would encourage participating youth to prepare a business plan with climate change adaptation and mitigation measures for risks from climate change impact taken into account. Subcomponent 1b will also support local-level disaster-risk plans and preparedness. Subcomponent 2b will finance training sessions on how to include climate change mitigation in livelihood activities. Component 3 will finance climate change mitigation and adaptation measures as a capacity-building activity.

V. KEY RISKS

124. The overall Project implementation risk is high for the following reasons. Political and governance and the changing political situation in neighboring Afghanistan risks pose a high risk to Project implementation. To address governance risks in the use of public resources, the Project design incorporates a combination of internal controls, oversight mechanisms, capacity building for local institutions, and social accountability processes. The roles of communities and self-governing bodies are carefully defined, with a subcommittee of mahallas and JPCs leading subproject implementation. Sector strategy and policy risks are substantial given that the national government has not endorsed CDD approaches on a national scale. The RMR steering committee will help to realize an authorizing environment and the reforms it entails for NSIFT to implement the Project. The proposed at the community- and individual-level interventions are in line with the GoT’s laws, policies, and development strategies. Local governments struggle to meet their service provision responsibilities due to a lack of financial resources. The Project will address this by including resources for climate-resilient planning and infrastructure design, as well as the design of robust O&M strategies. In addition, the lack of freedom of expression, widespread grievances against state institutions, and corruption across Project areas may limit, if not preclude, the effectiveness of the proposed interventions. Technical design risks are substantial. The Project is complex with interventions targeting local governments, community organizations, and at-risk individuals. To address the risks associated with the CDD activities, NSIFT will take a hybrid approach by working with experienced TFPs to support mahalla committees and jamoat administrations in mobilizing communities and carrying out the participatory planning process. The engineering design for component 1 and subcomponent 2a is simple and carries low risk. O&M arrangements typically involve line departments, supplemented by community oversight and subproject sustainability. The IPs will provide youth-inclusive services and livelihood activities that build on tested approaches in Tajikistan. In addition, in light of these risks, the World Bank task team will carry out enhanced supervision with financing from the State and Peacebuilding Fund, a World Bank-executed grant. 125. Institutional capacity for implementation and sustainability risks are high. The Project is multi-sectoral and involves multiple tiers of government. It relies on a single implementing agency, NSIFT, for implementation. NSIFT has prior experience implementing World Bank-financed local-level development initiatives but will require intensive support to acquire staff with the requisite skills needed to implement activities using state-of-the-art approaches to participatory, inclusive, and disaster-resilient local development, as well as youth-inclusive services and livelihood support. The Project


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will mitigate these risks in two ways: (i) align component 1’s subgrants project cycle design, implementation arrangements, POM, and SGM with that of CASA-1000’s CSP to provide ongoing and unified capacity building and institutional support on CDD to NSIFT; and (ii) relying on experienced service providers to implement component 2. Through the implementation of both World Bank projects, teams will seek to develop NSIFT as a long-term national counterpart on local development, including in high-risk regions. Fiduciary risks, including procurement, are assessed as high. Overall fiduciary responsibility will lie with NSIFT, which has long track record of implementing donor projects, including CDD operations. However, the governance and sector strategy risks identified above pose fiduciary risks for the Project. To address them, NSIFT will hire additional fiduciary staff immediately after the Project is effective and develop terms of references and oversee the procurement of the TFPs and IPs with implementation support from the World Bank. Finally, social risks are substantial because Project areas are intrinsically diverse and are exposed to regular conflict and fragility risks, which will impact Project outcomes. The border-related vulnerabilities and the absence of sustainable job opportunities and income-generating activities has led to unemployment and poverty rates that might—along with many other factors—contribute to youth joining extremist groups. The Project areas are thus characterized by: (i) geographic border-related risks—both interregional and international; (ii) economic risks, including high unemployment rate, particularly among youth, and significant dependency on remittances for household incomes, which is vulnerable to external economic conditions and fluctuations; (iii) social risks, where some groups may be excluded due to inherent structural deficiencies, elite capture, or both; and (iv) institutional risks, such as inadequate capacity of NSIFT in ESS application. The first two above-cited risks are external to the Project; the other two have been addressed. The efficacy of these measures largely relies on institutional and implementation arrangements, especially the performance of the IPs and TFPs. Finally, by design, the Project will avoid undertaking any activity that would result in physical or economic displacement. No structures will be destroyed. There is a remote chance of land acquisition along with the related risk of

resettlement. All social risks are identifiable and can be mitigated..


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VI. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING

Results Framework COUNTRY: Tajikistan

Tajikistan Socio-Economic Resilience Strengthening Project

Project Development Objectives(s)

The development objectives of this project are to strengthen participatory local governance, improve the quality of local infrastructure, both in targeted communities, and increase extracurricular or livelihood opportunities for youth.

Project Development Objective Indicators

RESULT_FRAME_T BL_ PD O

Indicator Name DLI Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target

1

Improving the quality of basic infrastructure

Percentage of sampled community respondents (male/female) reporting that the project investments in basic rural infrastructure met their needs (Percentage)

0.00 40.00 60.00

Increasing extra-curricular opportunities for youth

Percentage of youth beneficiaries (male/female) 0.00 60.00


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RESULT_FRAME_T BL_ PD O


1

who utilize skills gained through the extracurricular activities (Percentage)

Increasing livelihoods opportunities for youth

Percentage of youth beneficiaries (male/female) who continue their livelihood activities one year after receiving livelihood tools and equipment (Percentage)

0.00 40.00

Strengthening participatory local governance

Percentage of beneficiaries (male/female) who participate in planning, decision-making, or monitoring subprojects (Percentage)

0.00 60.00 60.00

PDO Table SPACE

Intermediate Results Indicators by Components

RESULT_FRAME_T BL_ IO


1 2 3 4

Improving the quality of basic infrastructure

Percentage of subprojects that support climate change adaptation or mitigation

0.00 25.00


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1 2 3 4

(Percentage)

Percentage of subproject investments of high technical quality (Percentage)

0.00 80.00

Percentage of sampled community respondents (male/female) reporting improved access to basic rural infrastructure (Text)

TBD 40 percent 60 percent

Strengthening participatory local governance

Percentage of Village Project Committees, Jamoat Project Commissions and social accountability (monitoring and oversight) roles, that are female (Percentage)

0.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00

Percentage of target jamoats completing agreed local governance training curriculum (Percentage)

0.00 50.00 100.00

Percentage of women's group priorities that receive subgrant financing (Percentage)

0.00 50.00

Increasing extra-curricular opportunities for youth

Number of youth centers that have been refurbished (Number)

0.00 15.00


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1 2 3 4

Number of direct project beneficiaries (male/female) who successfully complete the youth inclusive soft skills curriculum (Number)

0.00 1,000.00 2,000.00 3,000.00 4,000.00 10,000.00

Number of direct project beneficiaries (male/female) who successfully complete the gender-based violence prevention curriculum (Number)

0.00 2,800.00

Number of direct project beneficiaries (male/female) who complete the psychosocial services curriculum (Number)

0.00 2,800.00

Number of direct project beneficiaries (male/female) who successfully complete the digital literacy and skills curriculum (Number)

0.00 4,000.00

Increasing livelihoods opportunities for youth

Number of direct project beneficiaries who successfully complete the livelihoods training (Number)

0.00 5,000.00

Number of direct project beneficiaries who receive livelihoods tools and

0.00 3,500.00


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1 2 3 4

equipment (Number)

Percentage of female heads of female-headed household beneficiaries who continue their livelihood activity after a 12-month period (Percentage)

0.00 40.00

Project Management and Capacity Building

Number of women in: project staff roles in the project implementation unit (Number)

3.00 10.00

Percentage of grievances which are received that are resolved (Percentage)

0.00 100.00

IO Table SPACE

UL Table SPACE


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Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: PDO Indicators

Indicator Name Definition/Description Frequency Datasource Methodology for Data Collection

Responsibility for Data Collection

Percentage of sampled community respondents (male/female) reporting that the project investments in basic rural infrastructure met their needs

Measures the percentage of survey respondents in beneficiary communities who report that they are satisfied with the project investments in basic rural infrastructure. The types of infrastructure that the project is financing cannot be identified ex ante. This indicator will be gender disaggregated.

Baseline, Midline and Endline

Project monitoring surveys

Quantitative surveys as defined in the POM; MIS information on actual project investments

NSIFT

Percentage of youth beneficiaries (male/female) who utilize skills gained through the extracurricular activities

Measures whether youth are applying the skills they are learning through the youth inclusive services subcomponent.

Annual starting year 2

MIS

These figures will be compiled based on field reports and uploaded into the MIS.

NSIFT

Percentage of youth beneficiaries (male/female) who continue their livelihood activities one year after receiving livelihood tools and equipment

Measures the sustainability of livelihood activities (training and tools and equipment) for both young men and women. Specifically, it will measure the percentage of young male and female

Annual starting 12-months following the launch of livelihood activities and specifically

MIS


NSIFT


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beneficiaries who continue their livelihood activities after a 12-month period from the time that they receive the livelihood tools and equipment.

the delivery of tools and equipment to the beneficiaries of livelihood activities.

Percentage of beneficiaries (male/female) who participate in planning, decision-making, or monitoring subprojects

Measures the level of community engagement in the planning, decision-making and oversight of sub-project investments.The total number of beneficiaries (denominator) is expected to be 449,944 individuals. The denominator for the intermediate target will be less than 449,944 and the exact number with be confirmed during project implementation.

Annually starting year 2

MIS

MIS

NSIFT

ME PDO Table SPACE


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Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: Intermediate Results Indicators

Indicator Name Definition/Description Frequency Datasource Methodology for Data Collection

Responsibility for Data Collection

Percentage of subprojects that support climate change adaptation or mitigation

Measures the contribution of subgrants to enhanced resilience (e.g. of roads infrastructure, approved designs), as well as climate change mitigation (e.g. through retrofitting measures or alternate energy sources).


PIU field reports; Technical checklists of subproject designs

PIU detailed review of sub-project designs

NSIFT

Percentage of subproject investments of high technical quality

Measures the technical quality of the infrastructure subprojects

Endline

Technical audit

A sample of infrastructure projects are audited using technical audit procedures

NSIFT

Percentage of sampled community respondents (male/female) reporting improved access to basic rural infrastructure

Measures the percentage of community respondents who report increased access to social and economic infrastructure improvements in terms of the time reduction to travel to roads, bridges, markets, water supply systems, etc. (gender disaggregated). Due

Baseline, midline and endline

Project monitoring surveys and MIS

Quantitative survey as defined in the POM

NSIFT


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to the demand-driven nature of the project, it is not possible to determine ex-ante the type of investments communities will choose. These figures will be reported upon after sub-projects are completed. This indicator will be constructed as an index across the infrastructure sub-project types.

Percentage of Village Project Committees, Jamoat Project Commissions and social accountability (monitoring and oversight) roles, that are female

Measures progress against 50% women targets for Project roles at community/Jamoat level.


Membership lists for Project roles

Review of membership lists for VPCs, JPCs, and social accountability role to count the number of total participants and female participants

NSIFT

Percentage of target jamoats completing agreed local governance training curriculum

Measure progress of training and capacity building activities for target jamoats. Numerator is the number of jamoats who have completed project training curricula.


MIS (progress reports and minutes of jamoat training sessions)

Review of participant lists and minutes of project training sessions for jamoats.

NSIFT


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Denominator is total number of jamoats in project area.

Percentage of women's group priorities that receive subgrant financing

Measures women's voice - whether women's priorities as identified in women's focus group discussions are prioritized for project investments


MIS

Comparison of women's priorities identified in focus group discussions with sub-projects designed/funded

NSIFT

Number of youth centers that have been refurbished

Measures the implementation progress of subomponent 2a and specifically, the refurbishment of youth and mobile spaces


MIS

PIU field reports, which will be regularly uploaded in the MIS

NSIFT

Number of direct project beneficiaries (male/female) who successfully complete the youth inclusive soft skills curriculum

Measures the implementation progress of subcomponent 2a and specifically, the soft-skills curriculum in the youth inclusive services


PIU field reports which are collated from the records of the Implementing Partners

The Implementing Partners will be responsible for reporting the progress of trainings to the PIU, which will then upload the monitoring data to the MIS

NSIFT

Number of direct project beneficiaries (male/female) who successfully complete the gender-based violence prevention

Measures the implementation progress of subcomponent 2A and

Annually starting Year 2

PIU field reports which are

The Implementing Partners will be responsible for

NSIFT


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curriculum specifically, the GBV prevention training.

collated from the records of the Implementing Partners

reporting the progress of trainings to the PIU, which will then upload the monitoring data to the MIS

Number of direct project beneficiaries (male/female) who complete the psychosocial services curriculum

Measures the implementation progress of subcomponent 2a and specifically, the psychosocial services curriculum




NSIFT

Number of direct project beneficiaries (male/female) who successfully complete the digital literacy and skills curriculum

Measures the implementation progress of subcomponent 2a and specifically, the digital literacy and skills curriculum




NSIFT

Number of direct project beneficiaries who successfully complete the livelihoods training

Measures the implementation progress of Sub-Component 2b and specifically, the livelihoods


PIU field reports which are collated from

The Implementing Partners will be responsible for reporting the progress

NSIFT


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trainings the records of the Implementing Partners

of trainings to the PIU, which will then upload the monitoring data to the MIS

Number of direct project beneficiaries who receive livelihoods tools and equipment

Measures the implementation progress of Sub-Component 2b and specifically, the distribution of livelihood tools and equipment.




NSIFT

Percentage of female heads of female-headed household beneficiaries who continue their livelihood activity after a 12-month period

Measures the sustainability of livelihood activities (training and tools and equipment) for both the heads of female-headed households and abandoned wives. This indicator will measure the percentage of female beneficiaries who continue their livelihood activities after a 12-month period from the time that they receive the livelihood tools and equipment.

Annual starting 12-months following the launch of livelihood activities

MIS


NSIFT


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Number of women in: project staff roles in the project implementation unit

Measures progress of gender action plan commitments to increase representation of women in the project implementation team. This includes women hired as part of the team in headquarters and regional offices


PIU hires

Representation of women on the project team will be tracked annually through project team lists and contracting records

NSIFT

Percentage of grievances which are received that are resolved

Measures whether the Project has established a feedback mechanism receiving and addressing complaints and feedback according to procedures


PIU field reports and MIS

Review of whether all complaints have been addressed

NSIFT

ME IO Table SPACE


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ANNEX 1: Implementation Arrangements and Support Plan

Strategy and Approach for Implementation Support

1. This Implementation Support Plan (ISP) describes how the World Bank will assist the client in achieving the Project development objective (PDO) of the Socio-Economic Resilience Strengthening Project (SERSP). The plan emphasizes the importance of accomplishing the following objectives: (i) provide necessary technical advice to the client and bring international experience and good practices to promote successful implementation; (ii) ensure that Project investments in socio-economic infrastructure and youth inclusion and livelihood activities meet World Bank technical standards;

(iii) finance oversight and capacity-building support for community mobilization, social accountability, and local governance capacity building under the Project to ensure high-quality and accountable community-based decision making and monitoring according to Project design; and (iv) ensure appropriate targeting, high-quality services and activities, and monitoring according to Project design for youth-inclusive services, the refurbishment of youth facilities, and livelihood activities. This ISP will also support the objective of developing national capacity for community-driven development (CDD) and youth development and ensure that the required fiduciary, social, and environmental safeguards are put in place and implemented according to the loan agreement and other project documents.

2. The Project will be implemented over a period of four years. This ISP includes support to the implementing agencies prior to project effectiveness to meet the Project’s capacity-building and design goals.

3. This ISP will be coordinated with that of the community support project (CSP) of the Central Asia South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade Project (CASA-1000) and include support from a State and Peacebuilding Fund (SPF); a World Bank-executed grant to implement Tajikistan’s risk mitigation regime program for building national CDD capacity in high risk areas; training and capacity building for the National Social Investment Fund of Tajikistan (NSIFT); and measuring and monitoring local-level risks and resilience. Through this comprehensive approach, the ISP seeks to help mitigate the risk of NSIFT implementing two new World Bank projects at the same time and to begin developing a national platform for CDD, including in high-risk areas of the country.

4. Technical implementation support. The following are key areas for technical supervision support during Project implementation:

• Engagement of experienced social development, youth, gender, governance, citizen engagement, monitoring and evaluation (M&E) and conflict prevention specialists during implementation of components 1 and 2 to support youth-inclusive services and livelihood activities and the cycle of community engagement, community monitoring, and local governance capacity building. This will include hands-on capacity-building support for NSIFT based on the Bank’s global experience in CDD, youth inclusion, social accountability, and citizen engagement, gender mainstreaming, and work in fragile and conflict-affected areas. Supervision will focus on supporting NSIFT to detail the youth, CDD, social accountability, and capacity-building activities in the Project Operations Manual (POM); training and exchanges with regional and global experts; and close supervision of the implementation progress at the national, regional, and local levels. Additional resources have been secured through the SPF grant to cover increased supervision costs, thus ensuring that the World Bank team can provide


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adequate technical support and inputs, including a capacity-building program for NSIFT on CDD and more frequent supervision support to remote areas of GBAO. The SPF will also complement SERSP project-level investments in M&E to support the mapping and monitoring of risks, including: (i) support for the design of a survey instrument to capture micro-data on risk and resilience in SERSP Project areas to be implemented through Project M&E funds; and (ii) capacity building and just-in-time TA support on participatory M&E to NSIFT, supervision of Project-level M&E efforts, and risk monitoring.

• Intermittent engagement of sectoral experts and energy efficiency and climate change experts, as needed, during implementation of component 1’s subproject investments in village-level, socio-economic infrastructure. Because the Project includes only small-scale investments and refurbishment, only limited technical support will likely be needed. This support could include a review of standard designs, recommendations for “green designs,” environmental sustainability, climate change considerations, and disaster risk management into the technical designs of infrastructure and facilities, and in alignment with other World Bank investments in socio-economic infrastructure in Tajikistan (e.g., coordination with water supply and sanitation, climate and disaster risk mitigation, and agriculture projects). Support should also include relevant World Bank sectoral specialists to carry out random physical checks and audits of completed works to ensure the safety and quality of construction following cycle 1 subproject investments in socio-economic infrastructure and to recommend any improvements under cycle 2.

5. Technical implementation support missions will be carried out three times a year during the first 18 months of Project implementation, followed by semiannual supervision missions. The Project team will carry out regular site visits to communities in the targeted districts during implementation.

6. Specific support measures are envisaged for the implementation of component 2 to ensure that technical capacity is strengthened at all levels to deliver activities geared at socio-economic resilience. At the PIU level, the World Bank team will ensure that youth and gender specialists with appropriate skills are embedded in the PIU at the national and regional offices. IPs will provide capacity building for the staff of Centers of Additional Education, teachers, counselors, and other relevant institutions that operate in the seven target districts, so they can continue to provide youth-inclusive services beyond the Project’s duration. Subcomponent 2b is also expected to prepare up to 200 local trainers from local nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and other relevant providers to deliver the livelihood activities. These support measures will allow for the scale-up of modules already tested in Tajikistan and in countries with similar challenges and opportunities as well as for the introduction of innovative elements from other countries.

7. Financial management implementation support. This includes: (i) initial support to NSIFT for the development of flow-of-funds arrangements to target communities, including for subgrants; (ii) technical support and oversight of NSIFT in detailing these procedures in the POM and SGM; (iii) desk review of the Project’s quarterly interim financial reports and review of the Project’s annual audited financial statements and management letter; and (iv) onsite supervision (twice annually) to review the continuous adequacy of the Project’s FM and disbursement arrangements, including visits to jamoats to review the flow of funds and FM arrangements under community procurement and to monitor and manage FM risks, including monitoring and reviewing any agreed actions; issues identified by the auditors; randomly selected transactions; and any other issues related to Project accounting, reporting, budgeting, internal controls, or flow of funds, including at the community level.


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8. Procurement supervision and implementation support. This will include initial support to NSIFT for the development of procurement arrangements for the Project, including the procurement of works and goods for the youth facilities, livelihood tools and equipment for youth beneficiaries, the design of community procurement procedures for the subgrants to target communities, and technical support and oversight of the implementing agencies in detailing these procedures in the POM and SGM. In addition to routine reviews, the team will conduct procurement supervision during their missions. Postreviews of procurement will be conducted annually. Supervision will include an additional review of the community procurement process after the first cycle of component 1’s subgrants. Based on the review of the community procurement process, the World Bank task team will make recommendations to NSIFT on any improvements and revisions required before the second cycle. Procurement implementation support will include training for NSIFT and other stakeholders involved in the Project procurement process.

9. Implementation support for environmental and social safeguards. Prior to effectiveness, social and environmental safeguard specialists will support NSIFT in developing social and environmental guidelines to include in the POM, based on the Environmental and Social Management Framework, Resettlement Policy Framework, Stakeholder Engagement Plan, Inclusion Plan, and Labor Management Plan. It will include a negative list of subproject investment categories ineligible for financing. The social safeguards specialist will support NSIFT in developing a beneficiary feedback mechanism, including a GRM that meets World Bank standards. The team will have an experienced country consultant for just-in-time support. As communities select subprojects for implementation, social and environmental safeguard specialists will be engaged to ensure that subprojects and youth livelihood activities comply with the guidelines and provide training and capacity-building support to NSIFT specialists. These specialists will join implementation support missions three times per year for the first 18 months and biannually thereafter to track compliance with safeguard policies and to monitor activities under the GRM.

10. Communications implementation support. A key aspect of successful implementation will involve communicating with project-area communities regarding components 1 and 2. A field-based communications specialist will work as part of the World Bank team to support NSIFT in advancing a communications strategy and action plan, reviewing the design of communications products, and providing ongoing guidance and support for communications and outreach efforts. To manage expectations and possible perceptions of exclusion, the World Bank project team and the PIU communications specialist will ensure regular information sharing and transparency to communities and interested stakeholders regarding Project interventions, especially around grants. The PIU communication specialist is expected to work closely with the IPs under component 2 on community outreach, awareness raising, and capacity building; most importantly, the specialist will have regular feedback mechanism with communities. The World Bank team will also ensure that after the Project is approved, the PIU organizes several roundtables to inform all local players about what the Project is going to do and how it is going to do it before it begins.

11. Training and facilitating partners (TFPs). As part of Project design, TFPs—entities skilled in in community mobilization and local capacity building—will implement subcomponent 1b, including developing a training curriculum and coaching and mentoring local officials and communities in community mobilization, participatory planning, social accountability, and a range of community development topics. During early supervision, technical implementation support will include working with NSIFT as it designs appropriate terms of reference for various functions of TFPs in line with the POM and as a basis for a competitive selection process. After TFPs are hired, the World Bank will review training plans and


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curriculum to ensure high-quality and consistent knowledge sharing on CDD, social accountability and citizen engagement, and local governance that is in line with global best practices.

12. Implementing partners (IPs). During Project implementation, specialized entities skilled in youth-inclusive services and livelihood support will be responsible for delivering component 2 activities. The World Bank’s task team will provide technical implementation support to NSIFT in preparing appropriate terms of reference for the various functions of IPs, to be included in the POM and used as a basis for a competitive selection process. The IPs will be responsible for mobilizing state-of-the art expertise in order to provide: innovative training of trainers; curriculum development and curriculum adaptation and learning tools for the youth-inclusive services and livelihood activities; specific M&E modules; quality control of results during the Project implementation process; establishment of databases on community-based organizations, young participants, and trainers/coaches in targeted districts; and support for the creation of a forum for discussion and dialogue at the local level. The IPs will deliver a range of youth services to youth and other community members, including parents and teachers.

13. NISFT will competitively procure two or more IPs. Given the Project’s requirements, the IPs are expected to form a consortium (i.e., international or national consortium of NGOs and/or other types of organizations such as universities) to deliver youth-inclusive services and livelihood activities in each region. The IPs will consist of: (i) organizations specialized in supporting the creation of economic activities, micro and small businesses, cooperatives and/or in the awareness raising and support of youth; and (ii) community-based organizations with organizational competencies to ensure local outreach to young people, youth groups, and cooperatives and to liaise between them and local representatives and institutions. The terms of reference for the IPs will include: (i) the delivery of comprehensive and properly targeted youth-inclusive services, including modules adaptation, training of trainers and quality control; (ii) support for the creation of local microentrepreneurship projects among disadvantaged youth through a set of nonfinancial services, including training and continuous support in the regions of intervention; (iii) supervision of beneficiaries’ engagement in their regions of intervention during the Project cycle; and (iv) implementation and quality assurance of activities foreseen in the different phases of the Project, such as outreach and Project launch, completion of local market assessments, livelihood trainings, and post-creation support to individual and groups or cooperatives of young microentrepreneurs. In addition, the World Bank is seeking to establish a partnership with an international specialized agency to provide overall TA to local agencies involved in Project implementation.

14. The IPs must demonstrate suitable expertise in Project management and fiduciary capacity with similar interventions. If the IP consists of a consortium, the consortium should identify a lead IP to assume responsibility for assuring the overall financial, technical, and managerial aspects of the activities, as well as adequate reporting and M&E on behalf of the consortium to NSIFT. In coordination with local partners, particularly mahallas and jamoats, the IPs will be responsible for supporting and monitoring the performance of CBO in implementing Project activities. In partnership with local leaders, local NGOs and CBOs will be responsible for reaching out to and mobilizing young people at the community level. Awareness sessions will consist of workshops and/or open informational sessions to inform youth about the Project, its objectives, expected results, and the selection process of potential candidates. With respect to the launch of livelihood activities, IPs will be responsible for ensuring high-quality market assessments to identify marketing niches and relevant value chains that will utilize beneficiaries’ services and products. Specialized private sector development specialists will conduct the market assessments. The IPs will facilitate knowledge sharing across communities and districts regarding the various experiences and lessons learned.


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15. Tools and equipment for livelihood groups. Young women and men who have successfully completed training, elaborated viable business plans, and registered their business will be eligible to receive in-kind tools and equipment as a livelihood group. Market assessments will pre-identify relevant livelihood activities. Tools and equipment are expected to pertain to service sectors such as automobile repair, local shops, home services, electrical repairs, plumbing, construction, and where possible, specialized computer and Internet services and/or relevant information technology services. For young women, tools and equipment may be related to hairdressing; cosmetology; home baking; sewing; and production material for embroidery, tapestry, and local crafts. In rural areas, they may enable groups or cooperatives to offer services to farmers in their localities or engage in small farm or off-farm activities, such as beekeeping, goat breeding, small-scale processing of agricultural products, packaging, and marketing. Such tools and equipment are readily available on the local market and can therefore be locally procured. Once the IPs identify the required tools and equipment, NSIFT will periodically purchase them in bulk and deliver them to the responsible IPs, who will then ensure their delivery to the livelihood groups. One designated young person in a livelihood group will be entrusted with materials and equipment through a contractual arrangement, using modalities specified in the POM. The arrangement may involve a tripartite contract among the IP, beneficiary, and jamoat authority or other relevant public agency, which would provide some sort of guarantee that the resources will be used for the intended purposes.

16. Implementation support plan with budget. The ISP for SERSP is presented in the matrices below, including timeline, focus, skills needed, and estimates of available resources for supervision. Additional trust fund resources will also be sought for the international technical assistance (TA) of component 2.

Table 1. Implementation Support Plan

Time Focus Skills Needed Resource Estimate

Preeffectiveness

Support NSIFT in the development of the POM, SGM, and terms of reference for TFPs and IPs; capacity-building support for NSIFT on CDD and youth inclusion, including the selection and agreements for the refurbishment of youth facilities and livelihood activities; technical design; design of a baseline survey, including monitoring module on local risks; communications strategy/action plan/design of materials; and coordination with international partners ahead of Project launch

Technical specialists, FM, procurement, and communications

US$50,000

(Project preparation budget); US$20,000 SPF Bank Executed Trust Fund (BETF))

Years

1–2

Oversight and capacity-building guidance to implementing agencies in staffing and Project team development and up-skilling. Technical support for:

• Ongoing capacity building and organizational development support to NSIFT

Task team

US$185,000 annually

(Bank Budget (BB)


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• Supervision of cycle 1 of subproject investments in small socio-economic infrastructure, including FM, procurement, safeguards, and technical supervision

• Outreach and recruitment of community volunteers; oversight of cycle 1 community mobilization and social accountability process as defined in POM

• Design and launch of jamoat capacity-building activities

• Early implementation of gender action plan

• Design of youth outreach and engagement activities across the Project cycle

• FM/procurement/safeguards supervision/site visits and trainings for relevant communities and local officials; implementation oversight of initial phases of the communications action plan

• Supervision of the refurbishment of youth spaces, the purchase of equipment for these spaces, and delivery of youth-inclusive services and livelihood activities, including FM, procurement, safeguards, and technical supervision

• Oversight of the outreach and selection of youth who will participate in youth-inclusive services and livelihood activities, the content and delivery of the curriculum, and the delivery of livelihood tools and equipment to youth beneficiaries

for supervision);

US$100,000

SPF BETF

Years

3–4

Oversight and capacity-building support to implementing agencies, including after-action reviews of POM-defined Project cycle and revisions to POM, as necessary. Technical support for:

• Supervision of cycle 2 investments in small socio-economic infrastructure, including FM, procurement, safeguards, and technical supervision based on investment area; and taking into account lessons learned from the cycle 1

• Spot checks and technical audits of small socio-economic infrastructure investments to ensure quality and safety of construction

• Further training and capacity building of community volunteers; oversight of cycle 2 of community mobilization and social accountability process as defined in the POM and based on lessons learned from cycle 1

• Review of training curriculum and training delivery for jamoats

• Support for implementation of the Jamoat Youth Development Fund in year 4

• Monitoring implementation of the gender action plan and incorporating lessons learned

Task team

US$185,000 annually

(BB for supervision)


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• Monitoring implementation of youth outreach and engagement activities across the Project cycle and incorporating lessons learned

• Continued supervision of the refurbishment of youth spaces and the purchase, maintenance, and use of equipment for these spaces; delivery of youth-inclusive services and livelihood activities including FM, procurement, safeguards, and technical supervision

• Continued oversight of the outreach and selection of youth who will participate in youth-inclusive services and livelihood activities, the content and delivery of the curriculum, and the delivery of livelihood tools and equipment to youth beneficiaries

• Oversight of the youth beneficiaries who receive tools and equipment to ensure that they are using these them for their intended purposes and supervision of the postcreation support (mentoring) for these groups.

• Oversight of the midline (after two-and-a-half years of Project implementation) and endline project monitoring surveys, including risk modules

FM, procurement, safeguard supervision, site visits, and trainings for communities and local officials as relevant. Monitoring results of the communications action plan and supporting additional communications and outreach in communities on Project implementation. Conduct midterm review in year 3 following cycle 1 of socio-economic subgrants and ICR

Table 2: Required Skill Mixes

Skills Needed Number of Staff Weeks

for Four Years

Number of Trips Location

(Indicative/Initial)

Staff

Task team leader (CDD) 40 12

Europe and Central Asia region-based staff

Task team leader (Youth Inclusion, Livelihoods and Violence Prevention Specialist)

40 10 Europe and Central Asia region-based staff


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for Four Years



Engineering Specialist 12 6


M&E and Gender Specialist 20 6


Youth Inclusion and Livelihoods International Consultant

8 2 International consultant

Local Government Specialist 8 - CO consultant

Water Supply and Sanitation Specialist

8 CO-based staff

Sector Specialists 2 - Field-based staff

Disaster Risk Mitigation Expert 3 - Field-based staff

Climate Change/Energy Efficiency Expert

3

Environmental Safeguards Specialist 12 6 HQ staff

Social Safeguards Specialist 12 6 HQ staff

Social Safeguards Consultant 20 - CO consultant

FM Specialist 8 - CO staff

Procurement Specialist 12 - CO staff

Communications Specialist 10 - CO staff

Consultants

Dushanbe-Based Local Consultant/Liaison for RMR Program/NSIFT

40 - CO

Organizational Development Expert for NSIFT Capacity Building

8 Dushanbe


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for Four Years



Youth Inclusion and Livelihoods International Consultant

8 2 International consultant

CDD Experts Under Training and Capacity-Building Program

4 2 International expert


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ANNEX 2: Detailed Description of Subcomponent 1b and Component 2

Subcomponent 1b will support three interrelated sets of activities: (i) the subgrant implementation cycle; (ii) social accountability and transparency; and (iii) capacity building for improved local governance practices.

Subgrant Implementation Cycle

1. Step 1: Outreach and orientation. Training and Facilitating Partners (TFPs) will conduct orientation meetings at the village, jamoat, and district levels to provide local stakeholders and community members with detailed information about the Project. During these meetings, government actors and communities will learn about Project objectives, the cycle of subproject activities, the specific requirements to include women and youth, the role of community representatives and community committees, the role of jamoat representatives and commissions, the approach to procurement, and the social accountability and oversight mechanisms. The orientation will also provide information on the subgrant allocation to each jamoat.

2. Step 2: Participatory village needs assessment and subproject prioritization. Adopting the participatory rural appraisal approach, TFPs will recruit and train community development advisors to work with existing mahalla committees as the entry point through which to organize village project committees (VPCs) and facilitate focus group discussions aimed at engaging women, the elderly, youth, entrepreneurs, professionals, and vulnerable households. The discussions will provide an opportunity for these community groups to identify and prioritize their needs. With TFP support, participants will discuss and rank their priorities at village prioritization meetings; the identified priorities will then be included in village development plans and communicated to the jamoat-established jamoat project commission (JPC) for endorsement. During their review of the village development plans, the JPCs will ensure that the prioritized subprojects are aligned with district and regional development plans and priorities. To ensure that women’s concerns are heard, the Project will track and measure the percentage of investments in the priorities identified by women’s groups. To ensure the adequate representation of the concerns of youth in the village development plans, the decisions made by youth participants in the focus group discussions will be included in a youth chapter of the plans, with the aim of identifying possible youth-related interventions that are eligible for funding.

3. Step 3: Subproject development. The JPC will check the feasibility of the proposed subproject against the subgrant amount included in the jamoat development plan, work with the VPC to develop the subproject proposal, and request NSIFT engineers to carry out feasibility checks and the detailed design. The JPC will also work closely with NSIFT on the development of the subproject design, including addressing any safeguard requirements. NSIFT will prepare the technical designs and tender packages in accordance with regulations, utilizing relevant standard government designs as appropriate. For water supply and sanitation investments, NSIFT will also check the subproject proposal against the master plans and expansion plants of the water utilities operating in the area and ensure that the subproject designs meet appropriate technical standards.

4. Step 4: Participatory implementation, procurement, and subproject management. The JPC will execute community procurement with the support of NSIFT, as described in the POM and SGM. The VPC will be empowered and trained to confirm that the facility or infrastructure proposed in tender documents reflect the village’s priorities; to sign off on documentation for tender by the JPC; to nominate one of its members to sit on the tender committee; and to


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oversee onsite implementation, such as safety of materials and progress against schedule, utilizing a structured process to provide feedback to the NSIFT Project management team. NSIFT will remain responsible for FM over the course of two subgrant cycles.

5. Step 5: Participatory monitoring. Young women and men will be nominated from each community to carry out active participatory monitoring and oversight roles. With the necessary capacity building from the TFPs, community monitoring and social accountability is envisaged; procedures will be established to ensure there is no conflict of interest between implementers and monitors. The results of the monitoring and community perceptions will be aggregated for interim reporting.

6. Step 6: Participatory O&M. During subproject implementation, communities will be mobilized through the mahalla-associated VPCs to form committees that will supplement the O&M provided by the line ministries. These O&M committees will work to ensure the effective management and sustainability of the village investments following the completion of subprojects. For relevant subprojects (defined in the POM), an O&M subcommittee will establish the necessary village maintenance fund through voluntary or in-kind contributions. Minor repairs will be undertaken by the villagers, while more major repairs and maintenance will be undertaken by the relevant government department at the jamoat or district level. TFPs and NSIFT engineers will conduct O&M training for communities under subcomponent 1b. For subproject investments in water supply systems, the utilities and WUAs for irrigation will be responsible for recovering costs through tariffs in line with the approach supported through RWSSP. Before the subprojects are approved, the TFPs and NSIFT will inform communities about these expected cost-recovery mechanisms.

Support for Social Accountability and Transparency

7. Social audits, conducted twice a year, will take the form of “community check” meetings—public forums for the VPCs and JPCs to present a report back to their target communities on the Project’s progress, challenges, and fiduciary (procurement and FM) information. All communities will conduct these meetings to ensure that decisions are inclusive and poverty-focused; that they are really made from the bottom up; that there is continuity in the chain of decisions made by focus groups (e.g., women); and that they enable the VPC, JPCs, and NSIFT to explain the expenditures of Project subgrants. Transparency will be a key parameter. Community development advisors will provide community and committee members with a list of information and documents that should be presented at a community check meeting. TFPs will provide logistical support to ensure broad attendance by community members and representatives of VPCs, JPCs, and NSIFT, including 50 percent women. The subcomponent will fund the technical support needed to prepare, organize, and document these meetings through TFPs.

8. Communities will engage in semiannual community scorecard activities, which will provide opportunities for quick and simple feedback on Project implementation (Project processes and outcomes). The VPC and JPC will independently facilitate the scorecard process with support from the cadre of youth selected for monitoring and oversight roles. The annual scorecard will be conducted, and results collated prior to the community check meeting to promote feedback and discussion at the meeting and to identify any areas to improve during the following cycle. The scorecard results will be used to monitor Project outcomes. All results will be disaggregated to identify any gender bias, and corrective actions will be included in the gender action plan.


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Capacity Building for Improved Local Governance

9. The policy and legal framework for local governments in Tajikistan includes the Law on Bodies of Self-Governance of Townships and Villages (2009, as amended), which assigns jamoats a range of mandates to support community efforts at addressing local socio-economic needs. Jamoat development and investment priorities are set in district development

plans prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade.48 Districts define and decide priority areas to invest central government fiscal transfers and own revenues—mostly from local sales tax—for jamoat needs. In reality, funding is limited and covers some recurrent costs, salaries of social workers, and, to a limited extent, local physical infrastructure projects. However, district development plan funding is not linked to the annual budget framework set by the Ministry of Finance. Amid insufficient funding, there is still a substantial gap in jamoat capacity to carry out these reforms and deliver services. To address these constraints and help fulfill their potential to perform these roles, subcomponent 1b will finance capacity-building activities for jamoat councilors and administrators, JPC, and mahalla committee leaders. The Project will provide facilities and equipment for the commissions in target jamoats to use, including computers, printers, office furniture, and conference room furniture. Capacity building for local governments will focus on community engagement and the management of local finances. TFPs will provide training for local governments to improve their awareness and disseminate knowledge and experience on climate change and disaster risk reduction in the projects.

10. Component 3 will finance capacity-building activities to assist local governments in mitigating governance and anticorruption risks.

11. Community engagement: participatory planning, Project management, and oversight. Because most local government actors lack experience with CDD, training will be provided on its principles and practice; the Project procedures for community mobilization, social accountability, gender- and youth-related inclusion and equality as relevant for the jamoat; and Project safeguard procedures to mitigate environmental risks and to prepare environmental and social impact assessments and environmental and social management plans with support from NSIFT engineers. This capacity building will be complemented by training on the jamoat mandate—local development planning, infrastructure planning, operations, and Project management—to deepen skills in participating jamoat structures and to enhance capacity for managing inclusive and responsive investments.

12. Managing local finances—learning by doing. Subcomponent 1b will build capacity for managing local finances, both through training and learning by doing. Starting in year 1, training will cover fiduciary topics ranging from small procurement, accounting and bookkeeping, cost estimation, FM, gender budgeting, and equitable use of resources. This training will continue in years two and three, when jamoats will open designated accounts and be able to manage small transactions (up to US$1,000) that target communities’ requests as a part of the approved subprojects (e.g., kindergarten playground equipment) if NSIFT has assessed their capacity as satisfactory and in accordance with the procedures defined in the SGM. In year 4, NSIFT will provide support to jamoats, which NSIFT determine as having satisfactory capacity, to work with youth representatives on small subprojects selected from the youth development chapters of the jamoat development plans. Specifically, NSIFT will provide jamoats with the necessary capacity building and technical support to engage with the selected youth representatives, carry out the FM and procurement, and coordinate with the districts for

48 http://medt.tj/en/Development%20of%20the%20regions.

http://medt.tj/en/Development%20of%20the%20regions


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implementation. Jamoats will be encouraged to establish youth accountant internships for the six-month implementation period.

13. Subcomponent 1b will ensure that decisions are needs-based and poverty-focused and that mobilization specifically engages women, youth, and vulnerable households. Relevant trainings will target community representatives, youth monitors, VPCs, and jamoat stakeholders (JPC, councilors, and administrators). Training and TA activities for communities will cover the participatory process set out above; for JPCs, it will also cover small procurement, accounting and bookkeeping, Project management, participatory community monitoring, O&M, and safeguards. The TFPs will conduct the trainings as set out in a consolidated training plan in the POM.

Component 2

14. Figure 1 outlines the criteria for selecting jamoats within the target districts for the refurbishing. The POM will reflect these selections. For the rural localities, the Project will target jamoats based on the presence of preexisting youth facilities (e.g., CAEs, youth centers, and jamoat-owned communal spaces); the density of the youth population; their distance to Afghanistan; and reported incidents and risks of violence, radicalization, and recruitment into violent extremist groups. The presence of a youth facility is not a requirement for a jamoat’s inclusion in component 2 because the Project will also finance a limited number of mobile teams to deploy to jamoats meeting the other criteria. Within the seven districts, the Project will target low-income, peri-urban, and rural youth ranging in age from 15 to 30 who are underemployed; NEET; returning migrants, especially those with reentry bans; or the head of female-headed households. Local representatives at the mahalla and jamoat level and participants of student councils, parent-teacher associations, local NGOs, and local volunteer groups will participate in the outreach and identification of potential beneficiaries. Subsequently, the IPs will conduct a detailed validation process to ensure that the identified beneficiaries meet eligibility criteria. Clear eligibility criteria and a transparent selection process will ensure that only those identified as vulnerable will benefit from Project activities. Any individual not selected for an activity can submit a complaint through the Project’s GRM. NSIFT will be responsible for addressing any complaints. IPs will engage representatives of jamoats and mahallas or trusted local NGOs to help with communication efforts about the selection process, particularly regarding the livelihood activities, to groups who are not selected. Boot-camp participants who are not selected to receive livelihood training and subsequently tools and equipment can apply to participate in future boot camps for potential selection into the livelihoods support activities. When possible, partners will refer individuals not selected for the youth-inclusive services or livelihood activities to other programs that public entities or donors are supporting.


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Figure 1. Targeting Criteria for Subcomponents 2a and 2b

15. Figure 2 visualizes the sequence that beneficiaries will undergo under subcomponent 2b from their participation in boot camps to the obtainment of tools and equipment and postcreation coaching. Oversubscription to boot camps is necessary to ensure that plenty of participants will qualify to enter the subsequent phases. Based on similar projects implemented elsewhere, an estimated 50 percent of boot-camp participants will be ineligible to participate in subsequent phases either because they drop out of the activity or due to technical constraints in their livelihood proposals. Boot-camp participants interested in pursuing other activities will receive referrals to other potential programs.

1

2

3

1. Districts

• Proximity to Afghanistan border

• Rural and urban representation

• Risks/incidents of violence, radicalization, and recruitment

• Presence of youth inclusive spaces (e.g., Centers for Additional Education, and to make it youth centers and communal spaces)

2. Towns/Jamoats

Target Beneficiaries• Low-income, peri-urban and rural youth aged 15 to 30

who are:• Underemployed• NEETs• Returning migrants, especially those with re-

entry bans• Minimum of 50 percent women, with a focus on the

heads of female-headed households

Outreach and Validation of Eligibility• The IPs will set up a community process whereby they

introduce and consult with community organizations (mahalla committees and jamoat administrations, VPCs and JPCs), student councils, PTAs, and local volunteers to spread awareness and identify potentially eligible youth. The IPs will be responsible for screening the youths to ensure that they meet the criteria as laid out above and in detail in the POM.

• The IP will be responsible for reviewing livelihood group proposals to determine their business viability and eligibility for tools and equipment.

• A GRM will be in place for any project-related complaint, including those regarding youths deemed ineligible to participate in subcomponent 2a or 2b or to receive the tools and equipment under subcomponent 2b.

3. Beneficiaries

• Limited donor presence with youth programs

• High population size• Rural and urban

representation• Proximity to

Afghanistan border• Contiguous districts for

economies of scale• Presence of

radicalization and recruitment


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Figure 2. Subcomponent 2b: Sequence of Beneficiaries Participation in Livelihood Activities

There are 50 people at boot

camp on the first day.

• Some of the 50 youths will drop out on the first day of boot camp.

On the second day of boot camp,

several youth drop out.

• Youth who will not have met the minimum parameters in relation to business ideas and displayed high participation in groupwork, punctuality, commitment.

By the end of boot camp, 25 finalists

remain.

• These youth have promising ideas for businesses, have actively participated in group work, were punctual and displayed a commitment to their idea.

After boot camp, finalists transition

into business livelihood training.

• Following the boot camp, only 25 youth are admitted into intensive livelihood training and postcreation mentoring; these youths will also be eligible to receive tools and equipment.


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ANNEX 3: Gender

1. The Project will focus on closing four gender gaps: (i) the gender gap in voice and participation in community-level and local governance decision making; (ii) gender gaps in access to services; (iii) gender gaps in livelihood opportunities; and (iv) gender-based violence (GBV).

2. First, in terms of voice and participation, a broad set of analyses highlights the lack of voice and agency among women in rural Tajikistan. While mahallas are an important community-based organization for collective decision making, they are traditionally dominated at the local level by older men. In a 2013 baseline survey,49 50 percent of respondents indicated that at the jamoat level, the influence of men is stronger than that of women; only 11 percent said women had more influence than men. In 2017, women occupied 19 percent of seats in the national parliament.50 The Midterm Development Strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2016-2020, includes a target of increasing the share of women in leadership positions to 30 percent and senior leadership positions to 25 percent. Currently, of the 48 jamoats that will receive subgrants under subcomponent 1a, women serve as jamoat administration heads in only three, and two women out of 48 serve as accountants. Only 15 percent of the deputy jamoat council positions and only 11 percent of jamoat administrative positions are held by women. This gender gap in local decision-making structures has a direct impact on whether local investments meet women’s infrastructure and service needs. For example, the findings from a 2017 WASH survey51 finds that only 31 percent of rural households have access to an improved water supply. Tajik women are primarily responsible for water collection (90 percent spend more than one hour a day on this), so they incur the largest nonmonetary burden of inadequate water supply services; Demand and willingness-to-pay for water supply improvements is much greater among women than men. But these preferences might only translate into actual improvements if women are empowered to meaningfully participate in local decision-making—and to be heard—regarding the types of infrastructure and service projects that the local government should fund. In addition, a 2016 gender assessment52 indicates that lack of access to health and education services has significant consequences on maternal mortality and birth outcomes, with 35 percent of rural women reporting distance to health care facilities as a primary factor. The absence of preschool educational facilities was frequently mentioned in participatory discussion as a factor preventing rural women from working outside the home.

3. To address the gender gap in voice and participation, the Project has established 50 percent targets for training, participation, and representation at each level and in each activity, and will track as intermediate indicators the percentage of women in village project committees (VPCs)—established to expand the male-dominated mahallas (target: 50 percent women), the percentage of women in jamoat project commissions (JPCs) (target: 50 percent women), and the percentage of women trained and carrying out social accountability roles, i.e., monitoring and oversight (target: 50 percent). The baseline levels for women’s current representation in VPCs, JPCs, and social accountability roles in the Project’s target jamoats will be collected and included in the POM. Engagement in the CDD Project cycle will be measured through a

49 USAID, Tajikistan Local Governance Project Impact Evaluation (2013). 50 World Development Indicators Dataset (2017). 51 World Bank, 2017, see footnote 16. 80 percent of women compared with 64 percent of men said they would pay more for better water. 52 Thirty-two per 100,000 live births in 2015, compared with 23 for the Europe and Central Asia region, according the Asian Development Bank, Tajikistan Country Gender Assessment (Manilla: ADB: 2016).


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project development objective indicator: the percentage of beneficiaries (male/female) who report having participated in the planning, decision making around, or monitoring of subprojects.

4. Second, the Project seeks to address gender gaps in public service provision, taking specific actions to ensure that women both influence the decision-making process and are beneficiaries of the subproject investments. By increasing women’s participation in VPCs and JPCs, the Project gives women a stake in decision making to ensure service delivery meets their specific needs and priorities. The literature provides ample evidence that women’s participation in community-level decision-making increases budget allocations for services that benefit them and makes the services more accessible and responsive, particularly local health services, in addition to personal safety and social protection. In India, for example, increasing women’s participating in local government led to a greater investment in drinking water infrastructure and increased availability of public goods.53 As an intermediate results indicator of women’s access to services and infrastructure, the Project will track and measure the number of women’s priorities recorded in focus group discussions that become a functioning facility, service, or infrastructure project (target 50 percent). At the PDO level, the Project will track the percentage of beneficiaries (male/female) who report that Project investments in basic rural infrastructure met their needs. At the intermediate-level, the Project will track the percentage of female beneficiaries who report that the Project investments improved their access to infrastructure.54

5. Third, the Project seeks to address the large and widening gender gap in paid employment.55 By age 25, 70 percent of women have become inactive, meaning they are doing unpaid work at home, compared with 20 percent of men who become inactive at that age. Over 43 percent of Tajik women engage in unpaid home-based work, yard work, and caregiving compared with only 9 percent of men.56 The percentage of households headed by women is growing—often driven by labor migration.57 One-third of men aged 20 to 39 emigrate for most of the year or longer; and about 41 percent of men divorce their Tajik wives after leaving the country.58 Around 80 percent of Tajik women in divorce cases are denied property rights and child support. Women cope by taking on traditionally male-led responsibilities, including household maintenance and budgeting and the tending of fields and animals, on top of their traditional roles as caregivers to children and the elderly. These additional duties limit their participation in educational and income-earning activities outside the home. Further, women’s paid employment is hampered by the significant decline of the number of preschool educational facilities, especially in rural areas, a result of the collapse of the socialist system and the country’s civil war.59 In 2017, preprimary gross enrollment in Tajikistan stood at 10 percent compared with 59 percent in the Europe and Central Asia region and 95 percent in the European Union.60 To address the gender labor force participation, the Project expects to

53 Chattopadhyay, Raghabendra and Esther Duflo, “Women as Policy Makers: Evidence from a Randomized Policy Experiment in India.” Econometrica 72 (5, 2004): 1409–43; Duflo, Esther and Petia Topalova, “Unappreciated Service: Performance, Perceptions, and Women Leaders in India,” Working Paper (Cambridge: Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2004). 54 Because the types of subprojects are not known, it is not possible to specify the investments in advance, but a large share will likely involve improving the water supply, which would especially benefit women. 55 Women’s labor force participation declined from 46 to 27 percent between 2003 and 2013. The participation rate among men is 63 percent, according to World Bank, Tajikistan Systematic Country Diagnostic (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018). 56 Statistical Agency under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan, Labor Force Survey (2016). 57 Asian Development Bank, Gender Assessment (2016). 58 Tajik State Agency on Social Protection, Employment, and Migration (2009). 59 Asian Development Bank, Gender Assessment (2016); International Labor Organization, Maternity Protection and the Childcare Systems in Central Asia: National Studies in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan (Moscow: ILO, 2014). 60 World Development Indicators.


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finance kindergarten facilities, which will help women work outside the home; these facilities will also employ women as teachers. The Project will also direct create livelihood opportunities for women, especially the heads of female-headed households and abandoned wives. Under subcomponent 2b, with the help of gender specialists in the Project implementation unit and TA, IPs will provide tailored services to female beneficiaries, including entrepreneurial mindset,61 financial accounting, and business development skills training; in addition to tools and equipment for viable group-based livelihood proposals. Following the creation of the livelihood groups, female beneficiaries will receive mentoring and additional business-related support. Further, under subcomponent 2a, the Project will finance youth-inclusive services tailored to young women, following a systematic assessment of their needs. These services will generally include basic digital literacy; psychosocial services that promote healing; and a package of soft skills—critical thinking, teamwork, communication, decision making, conflict resolution, violence prevention, and problem solving.

6. To ensure that the Project reaches its targets for female beneficiaries, including the heads of female-headed households and abandoned wives, trained facilitators will reach out to women at the grassroots level by, for example, working with female leaders in communities. The Project will deliver services at jamoat-level communal spaces and will deploy mobile teams to remote areas. It will include indicators for each intervention, including: (i) the percentage of beneficiaries who continue their livelihood activities one year after receiving livelihood tools and equipment (target: 40 percent of young men and women); (ii) percentage of beneficiaries who are heads of female-headed households and who continue their livelihood activity after a 12-month period (target: 40 percent); and (iii) the percentage of beneficiaries (male/female) who utilize the skills gained through the extracurricular activities (target: 60 percent).62 In addition, the Project is taking steps to ensure that women have equal access to employment opportunities and skills training created as part of Project implementation. This is particularly important given the current lack of women in technical roles in the selected implementing agencies and the need to establish gender equity during outreach to communities. Within the NSIFT project team, from a baseline of 3, the Project will measure the number of female staff members there are on the Project implementation team (target: 12 women) and will require contractors (TFPs and IPs) to meet 50 percent targets.

7. Fourth, the Project will address the high prevalence of GBV in Tajikistan, especially in Khatlon. According to the 2017 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), the percentage of women who have experienced physical violence since age 15 increased from 19 percent in 2012 to 24 percent in 2017.63 In Khatlon, this figure increased from 20 percent in 2012 to 35.8 percent in 2017. In GBAO, this figure increased from 14.4 percent to 18.4 percent in the same period. Within the 12 months prior to the 2017 DHS survey, 24.1 percent of women experienced physical, emotional, or sexual violence. In Khatlon and GBAO, this figure is 34.5 percent and 26.1 percent, respectively. Women who are divorced, separated, or widowed are more likely to have experienced spousal violence (47 percent) than those who are currently married (30 percent). To address the high rate of GBV, as one of the youth-inclusive services, the IPs will train young men and women, parents, and community leaders—including teachers—on ways to prevent GBV, building on a tested and proven

61 This training is based on the “Personal Initiative” curriculum, which has shown promising results in poor contexts, especially among women. Randomized control trials have found that training focused on developing proactive and “entrepreneurial” mindsets leads to better outcomes, including higher levels of income generation compared with traditional business training, especially for young women. Campo, F. et al., “Teaching Personal Initiative” (2017). 62 The Project will collect the baseline data for these indicators before youth receive the services. 63 Statistical Agency under the President of Tajikistan, Ministry of Health [Tajikistan], and DHS Program. 2018. “Tajikistan Demographic and Health Survey 2017”; Statistical Agency under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan, Ministry of Health [Tajikistan], and ICF International. 2013.“Tajikistan Demographic and Health Survey 2012.”


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curriculum in the local context that is based on global best practices. In designing the curriculum, the IPs will build on a body of evidence of what works to prevent violence against women, including recent impact evaluation evidence from Pakistan and Tajikistan.64 The project’s investment in creating livelihood opportunities for women could also indirectly contribute to the reduction of GBV by reducing household stress65 and improving women’s intra-household bargaining power.66 The Project will track the number of beneficiaries who complete the GBV prevention training (target: 2,800, 50 percent female).

64 See What Works to Prevent Violence Against Women, “Preventing Violence Against Women and Girls through Sport and Play in Pakistan” at www.whatworks.co.za/global-programme-projects/right-to-play-pakistan, and “No More Violence: A Gender-relational Approach to Building Community Resilience and Responses to Violence Against Women and Girls” at www.whatworks.co.za/global-programme-projects/international-alert-tajikistan. 65 Kim, Julia C. et al., “Understanding the Impact of a Microfinance-based Intervention on Women’s Empowerment and the Reduction of Intimate Partner Violence in South Africa.” American Journal of Public Health 97 (10, 2007): 1794–802. 66 Thomas, Duncan, “Intra-household Resource Allocation: An Inferential Approach,” Journal of Human Resources 25: 635–64 (1990); Duflo, Esther, “Grandmothers and Granddaughters: Old‐age Pensions and Intrahousehold Allocation in South Africa," The World Bank Economic Review (17.1, 2003): 1–25.

http://www.whatworks.co.za/global-programme-projects/right-to-play-pakistan


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ANNEX 4: Map of Tajikistan

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