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4This document is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investmentproduct. The document contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Active Weighting Advisors LLC (EventShares) or its subsidiaries. The author's opinions aresubject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this article maybe reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of EventShares.
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6Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/13/coronavirus-update-here-is-everything-the-fed-has-done-to-save-the-economy.html
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7Source: Visual Capitalist, UBS, The Economist
8Source: Yahoo!Finance
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10This document is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investmentproduct. The document contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Active Weighting Advisors LLC (EventShares) or its subsidiaries. The author's opinions aresubject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this article maybe reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of EventShares.
1 Forbes.com; MIC.com; Civilrights.org 2 “Legislating Stock Prices.” National Bureau of Economic Research. Data represents 1989-2008.
Policy
Investing
11This document is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investmentproduct. The document contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Active Weighting Advisors LLC (EventShares) or its subsidiaries. The author's opinions aresubject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this article maybe reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of EventShares.
12This document is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investmentproduct. The document contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Active Weighting Advisors LLC (EventShares) or its subsidiaries. The author's opinions aresubject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this article maybe reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of EventShares.
13Past performance does not guarantee future performance returns. Indexes are unmanaged and do not reflect fees and expenses.Source: Guggenheim Investments, Bloomberg. For Financial Professional use only. Do not distribute to the public.
As of 9/13/2019
14Past performance does not guarantee future performance returns. Indexes are unmanaged and do not reflect fees and expenses.Source: Guggenheim Investments, Gallup. Data as of 04/30/2019. For Financial Professional use only. Do not distribute to the public.
1. IMO 2020 …Lower sulfur regulations are disruptive
2. Sports Betting …Legalizing a Multi-Billion Dollar Opportunity
3. U.S. Infrastructure Spending …Focus on State Spending, Not Federal
4. Sales Tax Compliance …Headwind for e-commerce, tailwind for providers
5. Defense Spending …Recession Proof?
16This document is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investmentproduct. The document contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Active Weighting Advisors LLC (EventShares) or its subsidiaries. The author's opinions aresubject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this article maybe reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of EventShares.
IMO 2020: Disruptive Sulphur Fuel Regulation
Source: EventShares, https://www.legalsportsreport.com/sportsbetting-bill-tracker/
Low-Sulphur – High-Sulphur Fuel Spread Widened During 4Q19
Talking Points
• Low sulfur regs change oil shipping routes
and increase the complexity of fuel logistics
o Inequality in refining ability across
countries and current capacity
constraints
o Crude oil AND refined product need to
be moved
• Exiting cyclical lows
o Ship overcapacity, above-average oil
inventories, and lack of arbitrage
opportunities limited pricing power
• Increasing Time Charter Equivalent (TCE)
rates
o In our view, tanker companies with
young shipping fleets, strong balance
sheets, and leverage to the spot
market = strong FCF, ultimately for
shareholders
• Multi-Year Impact
• Effective date January 1st 2020;
Significant disruption in in shipping
market could potentially last through
2022
17This document is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investmentproduct. The document contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Active Weighting Advisors LLC (EventShares) or its subsidiaries. The author's opinions aresubject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this article maybe reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of EventShares.
Sports Betting: Legalizing a Multi-Billion Dollar Industry
Source: EventShares, https://www.legalsportsreport.com/sportsbetting-bill-tracker/
States that have legalized or introduced betting legislation
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18This document is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investmentproduct. The document contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Active Weighting Advisors LLC (EventShares) or its subsidiaries. The author's opinions aresubject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this article maybe reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of EventShares.
U.S. Infrastructure Spending: States in Focus
Source: EventShares, https://www.multistate.us/blog/top-10-state-legislative-trends-for-2019
States that have passed gas tax increases to boost infrastructure spending
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19This document is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investmentproduct. The document contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Active Weighting Advisors LLC (EventShares) or its subsidiaries. The author's opinions aresubject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this article maybe reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of EventShares.
Sales Tax Compliance: Durable Tailwind for AVLR?
AVLR stock performance (+164% in 2019)
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Source: FactSet Analytics.
This document is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investmentproduct. The document contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Active Weighting Advisors LLC (EventShares) or its subsidiaries. The author's opinions aresubject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this article maybe reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of EventShares.
Defense Spending: Recession Proof?
Source: EventShares, FactSet Research, U.S. Congressional Budget Office.
U.S. Defense Spending Growth Versus S&P 500 Sales Growth (2001-2019)
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During RecessionOutperformance
During Recession
Inflection
Point?
21This document is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investmentproduct. The document contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Active Weighting Advisors LLC (EventShares) or its subsidiaries. The author's opinions aresubject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this article maybe reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of EventShares.
1. 5G Telecom …Multi-year build-out supported by FCC & White House
2. Renewable Fuels …Supporting new technology; State low carbon fuel standards
3. Media Deregulation …Local TV station consolidation? 2020 political ad spending
4. Cannabis Legalization …Plenty of unanswered questions
23This document is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investmentproduct. The document contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Active Weighting Advisors LLC (EventShares) or its subsidiaries. The author's opinions aresubject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this article maybe reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of EventShares.
5G Telecom: Multi-Year Build Out; White House Support
Source: Business Insider Intelligence; https://www.businessinsider.com/tmobile-tower-delays-could-have-ripple-effects-2019-10
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24This document is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investmentproduct. The document contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Active Weighting Advisors LLC (EventShares) or its subsidiaries. The author's opinions aresubject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this article maybe reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of EventShares.
Renewable Fuels: Low Carbon Fuel Standards
Source: Third Way; https://www.thirdway.org/report/clean-energy-standards-how-more-states-can-become-climate-leaders
► More states adopting renewable portfolio standards that mandate electricity providers produce a certain fraction of power from renewable sources.
Talking Points
• Renewable Fuel Standards
o EPA finalized rule allowing year-
round sales of E15 = increase
ethanol demand
o Dec. 2019 legislation reinstated
ethanol tax credit back to 2018
= cash boost
o State low carbon fuel
standards, such as CA's, that
provide tax credits based on a
fuel's low carbon intensity
• Don’t forget Uranium
o Section 232 study preventing
market from functioning
effectively
o Cyclical recovery from
overproduction and then
secular growth due to 50+ new
reactors under construction
globally
25This document is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investmentproduct. The document contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Active Weighting Advisors LLC (EventShares) or its subsidiaries. The author's opinions aresubject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this article maybe reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of EventShares.
Media Deregulation: TV Station M&A; Political Ads
Source: BIA Advisory Services; https://www.tvtechnology.com/news/campaigns-to-shell-out-6-5b-on-local-ads-in-2020-47-for-tv
► TV remains an attractive political advertising venue.► FCC reviewing ownership caps, which could be raised.
Talking Points
• FCC review of local market ownership rules may
lead to consolidation and economies of scale
o Local broadcast owner growth is
constrained by national audience caps
o Digital advertisers (e.g. FB, GOOGL, TWTR,
SNAP) have grown exponentially due to
limited regulation
• Pricing power increase in fee negotiations
o Broadcast consolidation leads to
increased pricing power / retransmission
fees with traditional and virtual cable
distributors
• Business model outweighs fear of “cord cutting”
o Local news = strong relationship with
viewers
o Growing retransmission fees, over-the-top
digital advertising, and 2020 political
advertising drive revenue growth
o Low capex supports strong FCF and
support deleveraging the balance sheet
26This document is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investmentproduct. The document contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Active Weighting Advisors LLC (EventShares) or its subsidiaries. The author's opinions aresubject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this article maybe reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of EventShares.
Cannabis Legalization: Plenty of Unanswered Questions
Note: Volume weighted averages derived from wholesale transactions for all grow types and market types (price per pound).
Source: Cannabis Benchmarks - 2018 Marijuana Business Daily, a division of Anne Holland Ventures Inc.
► Price has dropped severely in recreationally-legalized states.
Talking Points
• More states are legalizing medical
and recreational marijuana
• While this trend likely continues,
there are significant policy hurdles
that come with legalizing
marijuana, which could slow down
federal legalization
o Taxation and regulation
o Employer concerns about
liability and drug testing
o Monitoring for DUIs
o Federally-insured banking
• We question the attractiveness of
investing in marijuana
o If legalized, what is defensible
about a grower’s business?
o Just another commodity with
unattractive economics?
o Valuations and volatility?
-3% -2%-5%
-22%-19%
-27%
-65%
-53%
-75%
0%
New Mexico Arizona Michigan Nevada California Colorado Oregon Washington
Legal for Medical Use Only Legalized for Recreational Use
$2,874
$2,069 $1,880 $1,813
$1,066 $860
$626 $595
$-
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
New Mexico Arizona Michigan Nevada California Colorado Oregon Washington
Average Wholesale Price Year-over-Year Change
Average Wholesale Cannabis Price
27This document is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investmentproduct. The document contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Active Weighting Advisors LLC (EventShares) or its subsidiaries. The author's opinions aresubject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this article maybe reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of EventShares.
1. Healthcare …Managed Care facing low probability of Single-Payor
2. Healthcare Innovation …Value Based Care technology; Opioid free
alternative drugs; Outsourced clinical trial research
3. Government Services …Law enforcement body cameras; Property REIT;
Labor compliance software
28This document is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investmentproduct. The document contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Active Weighting Advisors LLC (EventShares) or its subsidiaries. The author's opinions aresubject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this article maybe reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of EventShares.
29This document is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investmentproduct. The document contains opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of Active Weighting Advisors LLC (EventShares) or its subsidiaries. The author's opinions aresubject to change without notice. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this article maybe reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of EventShares.
• Policy catalysts are long-term with own unique drivers
• A new factor for tilts
• Thematic exposure to companies experiencing fundamental
change due to government policy and regulation
• Policy catalysts may show low correlation to broad markets
• Emotional decisions including personal political biases
• Long-term policy trends = productive investing dialogue
• Themes are relatable (e.g. tax reform, deregulation, healthcare,
global trade)
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