Food security policy challenges in central Asia: example of Tajikistan

Global Food and Financial Crises, Economic Development and Food Security Challenges in

Tajikistan

Kamiljon T. Akramov International Food Policy Research Institute

Washington, D.C., USA

Technical Workshop on Knowledge Tools and Lessons for Informing the Design and Implementation of Food Security Strategies in Asia

Kathmandu, Nepal November 14-16, 2011

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Outline

• Background • Recent trends in economic growth and poverty reduction • Global food, financial crises and food security in

Tajikistan • Impact on macro level food security • Price transmission • Household level effects

• Agriculture is key for improving overall food security • Policy challenges and resource constraints

• Conclusions and policy implications


Tajikistan is one of the most food insecure countries in the region

GNI per capita, $ PPP (2009)

Food Supply (kcal/capita/day,

2007)

Total Exports /food imports (2005-2008)

Global hunger index, % (2010)

Prevalence of undernourishment,

% (2005-2007)

Armenia 5410 2280 5.5 9.8 22

Azerbaijan 9020 2961 32.3 7.7 -

Georgia 4700 2859 4.7 5.8 -

Kazakhstan 10320 3490 32.5 <5 -

Kyrgyzstan 2200 2644 6.3 <5 10

Tajikistan 1950 2118 4.9 (8.2) 15.8 30

Turkmenistan 6980 2731 70.6 6.3 6

Uzbekistan 2910 2581 17.3 7.1 11

Bangladesh 1550 2281 6.3 24.2 27

Nepal 1180 2360 3.8 20.0 16

Yemen 2330 2068 5.0 27.3 31

Source: World Bank (2011), FAO (2011) & authors’ calculations


Cereals are main source of calorie intake and domestic cereal consumption highly dependent on imports

Composition of calorie intake Cereal balance

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

Perc

ent

Cereals Fruits Vegetables Vegetable oil

Sugar Animal products Other

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Perc

ent

Production Import Stock variation


Outline

• Background • Recent trends in economic growth and poverty reduction • Global food, financial crises and food security in Tajikistan

• Impact on macro level food security • Price transmission • Household level effects




Tajikistan enjoyed significant economic growth during last decade but income levels still remains below pre-transition levels

Source: World Bank (2011) & National statistical agencies

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

1990–2000 2000–09 1990–2000 2000–09

Gross domestic product Agricultureav

g a

nn

ua

l %

gro

wth

Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

1990

19

91

1992

19

93

1994

19

95

1996

19

97

1998

19

99

2000

20

01

2002

20

03

2004

20

05

2006

20

07

2008

20

09

2010

Perc

ent

GDP Per capita GDP Agricultural GDP


Strong inflow of remittances and macroeconomic stability played important role in boosting economic growth

Workers remittances in Tajikistan, 2002-09

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

curr

ent U

S$ m

illio

ns

% o

f GDP

Workers' remittances and compensation of employees, received (current US$ millions)

Workers' remittances and compensation of employees, received (% of GDP)

Source: World Bank, 2010


Poverty and undernourishment declined significantly but still very high and widespread …

Source: World Bank and FAO


Outline






Global food and financial crises: Macroeconomic, price and welfare effects

• Likely impact on • Macroeconomic stability and economic growth • Domestic food and consumer price inflation • Food security: macro level - country’s ability to finance its food

imports & micro level - household welfare

• Tajikistan’s economy suffered downturn due to global economic crisis (World Bank 2011) • Terms of trade significantly worsened due to declining world

cotton and aluminum prices and rising fuel and food prices • Remittances inflow contracted due to global financial crisis • Economic growth slowed down to 3.9% in 2009


Macro-level food security deteriorated due to global food and financial crises

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Rat

io

Year

Exports/food imports Exports+remittances/food imports Exports+remittances/food & energy imports

Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from National Bank of Tajikistan


Food prices in Tajikistan rise with global food prices

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

一月

-06

二月

-06

三月

-06

四月

-06

五月

-06

六月

-06

七月

-06

八月

-06

九月

-06

十月

-06

十一

月-0

6 十

二月

-06

一月

-07

二月

-07

三月

-07

四月

-07

五月

-07

六月

-07

七月

-07

八月

-07

九月

-07

十月

-07

十一

月-0

7 十

二月

-07

一月

-08

二月

-08

三月

-08

四月

-08

五月

-08

六月

-08

七月

-08

八月

-08

九月

-08

十月

-08

Food price inflation in central Asia (Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2008)

Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Uzbekistan Global Global food

inflation

Rising food prices in Central Asia

Source: Akramov (2011)


Evidence on food price transmission

Wheat Wheat flour Bread Food price CPI

Global wheat prices (GWP) One month lag Two month lag

0.456

(0.158)** 0.038

(0.158)

0.058

(0.052) 0.169

(0.053)**

0.029

(0.036) 0.035

(0.035)

0.003

(0.018) 0.046

(0.018)**

-0.000 (0.013) 0.028

(0.013)**

Global food crisis (GFC) Interaction of GWP and GFC Exchange rate

0.601 (2.289) 0.685

(0.322)** -0.240 (0.891)

0.698 (0.764) 0.385

(0.105)** -0.488 (0.290)

-0.123 (0.515) 0.224

(0.071)*** -0.307 (0.196)

0.309 (0.227) 0.077

(0.037)** 0.045

(0.101)

0.147 (0.189) 0.054

(0.026)** 0.049

(0.076)

R=squared N F-stat

0.17 106 1.81

0.37 106 5.06

0.25 106 2.78

0.28 106 3.29

0.25 106 2.87


Household level food insecurity (extreme poverty) increased in Khatlon and GBAO provinces

2007 2009 Change (n=4860) (n=1503) Dushanbe 16.1 12.5 -3.6 Sogd 31.8 14.8 -17.0 Urban 24.5 11.2 -13.3 Rural 34.3 16.0 -18.3 Khatlon 8.7 20.1 11.4 Urban 15.1 29.0 13.9 Rural 7.4 18.3 10.9 RRP 13.6 11.9 -1.7 Urban 23.8 14.6 -9.2 Rural 12.1 11.5 -0.6 GBAO 10.3 25.5 15.2 Urban 2.2 11.0 8.8 Rural 11.5 27.7 16.2 Tajikistan 17.4 16.2 -1.2 Urban 18.9 16.2 -2.7 Rural 16.9 16.1 -0.8

Source: TLSS 2007 & 2009


Transient and chronic food insecurity

Source: TLSS 2007 & 2009 (panel)

2009 TLSS Total

Non-poor Moderately poor Extreme poor

2007

TLS

S

Non-poor 561 184 68 813

37.7% 12.4% 4.6% 54.7%

Moderatly poor 249 140 75 464

16.7% 9.4% 5.0% 31.2%

Extreme poor 85 68 57 210

5.7% 4.6% 3.8% 14.1%

Total 895 392 200 1487

60.2% 26.4% 13.4% 100.0%


Outline






Promoting agricultural productivity and growth can improve domestic food security

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

rural population (%) agricultural employment (%) agric. Gdp (%)

Source: Agency on Statistics of Tajikistan


Agricultural reforms during last decade stimulated agricultural diversification and improved productivity

• Land allocation patterns changed in favor of food crops

• Wheat and potato yields constantly increasing

• Growth in non-cotton agriculture was very strong

• Nevertheless, agricultural productivity and crop yields still lower than potential

• Further policy and institutional reforms needed to increase productivity and profitability of agriculture

Wheat yields

Source: FAOSTAT 2011


Also, there are significant differences in cereal yields across farm types

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Tons

/ha

Agric Enterprises Dekhan Farms Household Plots

Source: WB (2010)


Addressing existing policy and institutional constraints necessary to improve agricultural performance

• International agrarian reform conference – April 15, 2011

• Land use rights and enabling farmers to make production and marketing decisions

• Improving access to farm machinery and modern inputs (seeds, fertilizer) (ICARDA 2008; Lerman 2009)

• Addressing problems with irrigation infrastructure

• Limited access to agricultural extension and finance

• Institutional reform of Ministry of Agriculture and local governments

Access to improved seed in Tajikistan

Source: ICARDA (2008)


However, agriculture’s potential in improving food security in Tajikistan is limited due to serious resource constraints

• Mountainous terrain with high prevalence of steep lands (54%), high shallowness (48%) & erosion risk (26%)

• Limited land base for agriculture • About 0.1 ha arable land per

person • 0.56 ha unimproved pastures

per person • Both arable and pasture land

per capita is declining due to land degradation and high population growth (Lerman 2009)

Source: World Bank 2011


Outline



• Agriculture is key for improving overall food security • Challenges and constraints



Conclusions and policy implications

• Tajikistan is highly vulnerable to external shocks • Clearly defined agricultural sector development strategy

and investment plan are necessary • Establishing strategic food (grain) reserves may help • Improving connectivity between regional markets and

market access • Encouraging nonfarm employment in rural areas • Developing targeted social safety net • Improving domestic analytical and M&E capacity is

crucial


Thank you

Food security policy challenges in central Asia: example of Tajikistan

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