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Government.

HAITI Food Security Outlook February to September 2019

Fragile food security in an uncertain macroeconomic context

KEY MESSAGES

• While markets are well supplied with seasonal local products, their prices remain high, and prices for imported rice and maize are on the rise as a result of the socio-political conditions and the rise of the US dollar against the gourde.

• Livelihoods in areas such as Nord-Est and Plateau-Central are affected by drought, which is impacting almost all agricultural and livestock activities. Thus, much of the area is in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), while the other regions, including Grand-Anse and Côte Sud, are either Stressed or Minimal (IPC Phases 1 and 2).

• The rains from January to February improved agricultural activities in other parts of the country, including in Grand Sud and the wet mountain areas of Ouest and Sud-Est.

SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR

Source: FEWS NET

NATIONAL OVERVIEW

Current situation

Socio-political disruptions: During January and February, a number of events disrupted the country’s socio-political climate. The exchange rate in 2018 led to continued increases in the price of imported goods, which make up a significant proportion of the products that Haitians commonly consume. This situation led to some rice importers and distributors threatening to temporarily suspend any rice imports until an exchange rate supporting more balanced commercial transactions had been re-established. This marked the beginning of negotiations between the sector and the Government, which resulted in subsidies being proposed for a number of basic necessities, particularly rice.

However, the severe strain on household budgets and the prospect of the cost of living escalating further, coupled with political demands, led to almost two weeks of demonstrations throughout the country. There were some violent hotspots

Projected food security outcomes, February 2019

Source: FEWS NET

FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows

key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of

national food security partners.

HAITI Food Security Outlook February to September 2019

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

and economic activities almost ground to a halt. Markets slowed down and in some cases even closed and supplies to community stores were interrupted. Household’s sources of income were also affected.

Many households had to consume their stocks and resorted to various strategies to meet their minimum consumption needs, including traveling to markets further away from home, sharing meals or reducing portion sizes. The most affected areas were urban areas where economic activities were most affected by demonstrations, including Port-au-Prince, Cap Haïtien, Gonaïves and Les Cayes.

At the time of this report’s publication, the situation appears to have calmed down and the impact on food security could be short-lived. The assumptions set out here will be revised if the situation changes in the near future.

Climatic conditions and outlook: Current weather conditions are characterized by drought in various areas of the country, caused by low rainfall. Nevertheless, close-to-normal rainfall is observed in Grand-Anse, Sud, Sud-Est, Ouest, Artibonite, Nord (with the exception of the communes of Bahon, Ranquit and Victoire) and the lower Nord-Ouest.

The vegetation index (NDVI) shows very close-to-average conditions (figures 1 and 2), especially in regions with average rainfall. In drought-prone areas, the negative vegetation difference is evident, especially in Plateau-Central and the lower Nord-Est areas.

Impact on seasonal crop production: Precipitation has proven to be very favorable to the winter crops that were sown in November. Harvesting began in January and is continuing in most of these regions, and preparations for the next growing season have begun with soil preparations and sowing activities. Apart from the Nord-Est plains and the communes of Haut-Plateau, these rainfall conditions have favored the cultivation of beans, particularly in Côte Sud and Grand-Anse. The same is true for bananas, root vegetables and tubers (e.g. yams and sweet potatoes), groundnuts, citrus and certain fruits such as corossol or papaya. In addition, the agricultural situation has been good in other regions, such as Sud-Est (particularly in mountain areas), Nord-Ouest, Artibonite and some Ouest municipalities.

In the rice-growing areas (Artibonite and Les Cayes plain), rains have improved water flow through irrigation channels. This has resulted in harvests and also helped plant nurseries prepare for transplanting, particularly in Sud (Torbeck), where Taiwanese technicians help rice growers with seed preparation. In addition, soil preparation activities and bean, maize and millet seedlings were sown with the rains recorded in February.

However, in areas affected by drought (Nippes, Nord), the situation hampered agricultural activities and farmers were unable to plant winter crops. There were therefore no agricultural activities. Despite these setbacks, farmers are working toward the spring growing season, even if they do not yet have adequate economic resources.

Food availability: Locally, the food available is mostly bananas, roots and tubers, pigeon peas, vegetables, wild produce such as breadfruit, and some fruits (citrus, corossol). On the whole, the markets are well supplied, though mostly through imports.

Projected food security outcomes, February to May 2019

Source: FEWS NET

Projected food security outcomes, June to September

2019

Source: FEWS NET

Figure 1. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index

(NDVI) anomaly, 11 to 20 February 2019

Source: FEWS NET/U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)

HAITI Food Security Outlook February to September 2019

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Price trends: Food commodity prices rose significantly in January and February, exacerbated mainly by the political situation and the upward fluctuations of the United States dollar. The price of local grain maize increased by more than 11 percent, from 89.3 gourdes/6 lb marmite to over 100 gourdes. The increase is most significant in the markets of Les Cayes (almost 36 percent), Cap Haïtien (over 22 percent), Fond-des-Nègres and Jérémie (over 18 percent). The price of black beans shows a moderate increase (3 percent), from 281 gourdes/6 lb marmite to almost 289 gourdes. The increase is very significant in Les Cayes market (over 36 percent) and, consequently, in Fond-des-Nègres (14.1 percent). However, it has fallen in the markets of Port-de-Paix (-9.5 percent), Jacmel (-5 percent) and Jérémie (about -4 percent), due to the harvest in December, which is still available in these markets.

At the national level, the price of imported rice has shown an upward trend. The 6 lb marmite price rose from 207.63 gourdes to more than 218 gourdes in January: an increase of about 5 percent on average. Owing to threats from importers and distributors to close their shops as a result of the deepening socio-economic and political crisis throughout the country, and during the February disturbances, the price of all varieties of imported rice increased significantly. For example, an increase of more than 50 percent was observed in the Port-au-Prince market (Figure 3) and this market has a significant impact on rice prices in other parts of the country.

Animal production: The current situation is not good due to drought, with the exception of departments with near-regular rains in the last two months.

Supply and demand for agricultural labor: In February, agricultural activities were dominated by winter harvests in areas where rainfall conditions had been favorable, and preparations for the spring growing season in areas where the growing season begins earlier. Labor demand is relatively low due to the dry period in the rest of the country. However, the pattern is different in some areas, particularly in Sud where workers are hired on vetiver plantations and paid 100 gourdes a day. This sector is very active in Sud, as this crop is important in the production of Haitian essential oils that are in high demand on the international market. It is reported that land formerly allocated to traditional crops is now being used for vetiver cultivation, which is considered more cost-effective by some farmers.

In addition, many households in border areas make income from other sources, including urban and foreign migration. Low demand for labor has an impact only on households that have difficulties accessing other sources of income or migrating.

Other sources of income: Poor households are also engaged in subsistence activities such as small-scale trade, especially the sale of charcoal, which gradually intensifies in the Stressed and then Crisis phases. In border areas, in addition to charcoal, migration continues to be an attractive alternative to the deteriorating socio-economic conditions in the country, given the more competitive working conditions in the Dominican Republic.

With regard to the movement of migrant workers, the growth rate shows an increase of about 10 percent from October to December 2018 compared with the previous year. It should be stressed, however, that this did not really reduce pressure on the dollar/gourde exchange rate, which depreciated significantly, i.e. more than 83 gourdes to one US dollar in the first half of February.

Figure 2. Haiti: Rainfall trends in mm and NDVI 2019

Source: WFP-VAM CHIRPS/MODIS

Figure 3. Port-au-Prince: Retail price of imported rice

(4% broken rice) (HTG/6 lbs)

Source: FEWS NET

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Food consumption and changes in current livelihoods: The poorest people, who largely depend on market purchases for their food consumption, have seen their purchasing power diminish as a result of a significant decline in income-generating agricultural activities and high food commodity prices, with the February riots exacerbating this situation. Repeated shocks and their lasting impact are therefore key elements that affect the stocks and savings of the poorest people. In rural areas in particular, intensifying the manufacture and sale of charcoal, in addition to other small-scale trade, still offers an alternative to the situation created by these shocks.

Assumptions

The most likely scenario for February to September 2019 is based on the following assumptions:

• Seasonal forecast. El Niño conditions could affect the beginning of the spring season for 2019, particularly in semi-arid and dry areas.

• Winter harvesting activities and the start of the Spring growing season will generate substantial income. However, the purchasing power of the poorest is expected to remain low, given the rising prices of both domestic and imported products.

• The Summer growing season, which depends on the performance of the Spring growing season and regular rainfall during the second season (July–September), is expected to yield near-average results.

• The demand for agricultural labor is expected to increase in March and April with the official start of the spring growing season. Harvesting activities, starting in April for certain regions (Grand-Anse and Sud) and in July for others, as well as the start of the summer growing season, will also further increase demand for agricultural workers. Supply may be limited because of the many workers who choose to migrate for more attractive working conditions elsewhere.

• Prices for imported and locally grown foodstuffs. Rising food commodity prices could be exacerbated by the current socio-political and economic crisis and the lean season. The price of imported food, particularly rice, will also remain stable but with downward rigidity due to the gourde’s depreciation against the dollar, which is already above 80 gourdes. However, rice prices are expected to return to normal, following a recent subsidy from the Haitian Government, which aims to reduce rice prices by 30 percent.

• General inflation. Annual general inflation currently stands at more than 15 percent, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the business climate and the Haitian Government’s changing financial situation.

• Private migrant remittances. Remittances from the Haitian diaspora might stagnate during the first four months of the outlook period, and then increase when classes restart in September. Although this will not directly benefit very poor households in general, its possible impact on the availability and circulation of the United States currency in Haiti could help reduce pressure on the gourde/dollar exchange rate and, consequently, make imported food more affordable.

• Trends in the exchange rate. Haiti’s currency is continuing to lose value against the United States dollar and the Dominican peso. This will have a significant impact on imported food commodity prices. Consequently, access to food could be very limited, especially for products such as rice, vegetable oils, wheat flour or maize.

Most likely food security outcomes

From February to May, in the northeast of the country, particularly in the lower regions, the communes of Haut-Plateau, some communes in Nippes (Petit Trou, Grand Boukan, etc.), some communes in Grand-Anse such as Pestel and Corail, and others in Ouest and Sud-Est that are already facing major structural problems, it is expected that the economic situation will force many households to increasingly use certain strategies in an unusual way to access food and non-food items, leading to these areas being in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

In the rest of Haiti, winter harvests should ensure that food is available, including beans and other seasonal crops, such as pigeon peas and especially root vegetables, tubers, bananas, breadfruit and fruit, particularly mango. It seems that these crops should be fairly available locally until the lean season (March–May). Moreover, income generated through the sale of their labor and crops will allow the very poor to gain access – albeit limited – to the market, as food prices are unlikely to fall. Thus, most regions will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

HAITI Food Security Outlook February to September 2019

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 5

From June to September which is the period coinciding with the Spring harvests and with the start of the second agricultural season (summer), consumption is expected to return to normal levels. This is partly because of the harvest but also because of the seasonal increase in agricultural income. Moreover, the sale of labor and other income should enable households to access local and imported products whose prices could fall or remain stable. The whole country will therefore remain in IPC Phase 1 or 2, while some of the areas currently in Crisis may become Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

AREAS OF CONCERN

HT02: Nord-Est (lowlands)

Current situation

Seasonal progress. Since December, there has been a significant drop in rainfall in the HT02 zone. Rainfall is below average, although there was more rain than normal in the second and third ten-day periods in January. Areas in drought are predominantly located on lowlands (Fort Liberté, Ferrié, Terrier Rouge).

Although it is common for lower rainfall to be recorded in the region from November to April, in these specific communes the dry season began earlier and has lasted longer than usual. The period under consideration has seen a vegetation deficit when compared with the average (Figure 5).

A sharp drop in water flow in rivers and irrigation channels has not allowed farmers to water rice plantations, which has affected their yield. At present, many lands are ready for the spring season. Farmers are still waiting for rain so they can start sowing.

Food availability. The availability of local products has not improved during winter. Low water levels in irrigation channels led to lower rice yields from lagoons and therefore rice is not available in sufficient quantities on local markets. For the same reasons, many farmers missed the Winter season for beans grown on plains. Currently, local foods available are predominantly root vegetables, tubers, bananas and pigeon peas from harvests from the wet mountain areas of the Nord and Nord-Est. On the other hand, imported products of all types and those from other regions are available on the markets in more or less normal quantities.

Livestock situation. There are severe issues with animal health and fodder and water are not readily available during the dry season. This is having a significant impact on livestock, especially cattle, which have lost a lot of weight. Deaths have even been recorded, particularly in Terrier Rouge.

Price and market developments. As mentioned above, the markets are supplied with local products from the area: root vegetables, tubers, bananas, black peas, pigeon peas, etc. In addition, they are supplied with imported products throughout the year, mostly from the Dominican Republic. There have been significant price increases of products such as milk, cooking oil, pasta and condiments.

The volatility of the dollar and peso against the gourde is an important factor behind inflation in the area, particularly as Haiti is heavily reliant upon the Dominican Republic to supply its markets. All food prices are above their five-year average, particularly rice, black beans and local maize.

Demand for labor. In Nord-Est, the decapitalization experienced by middle-income and wealthy farmers following losses from successive growing seasons, combined with the residual effects of Hurricane Irma, has made them less able to rely on local farm labor for winter crops. The demand for agricultural workers is therefore at its lowest. This has prompted workers to seek income in other activities or in other parts of the country or the Dominican Republic.

Figure 4. Area of concern: Nord and Nord-Est, HT02

Source: FEWS NET

Figure 5. Nord-Est: Rainfall trends in mm and NDVI 2019

Source: VAM-WFP/ CHIRPS/ MODIS

HAITI Food Security Outlook February to September 2019

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In addition, the Caracol industrial park, which also employs hundreds of young people in the area at lower but stable wages, is a significant employer of the poorest. Others who are unable to migrate engage in tree-cutting and charcoal production, which is increasing during the drought period especially as other sources of income, including agricultural work, are declining.

Other sources of income. The sale of crops and fruit is a major source of income for very poor households. A lot of citrus fruits, pineapples and corossols are currently being harvested and sold at market, which is good news for farmers after the losses of previous growing seasons. However, this cannot make up for the income lost due to low harvests in 2018.

Fire wood and charcoal production have increased considerably in this dry period, especially in the most vulnerable areas. In the absence of large-scale agricultural activities, a large number of households (predominantly women) are still involved in small-scale trade, especially with the Dominican Republic, until the spring growing season. Motorcycle taxis are another increasingly popular activity among the area’s young people, but the poorest do not own motorcycles. They rent them from wealthier people, promising to purchase them after six months.

Assumptions

The most likely scenario for February to September 2019 is based on the following assumptions:

• Near-normal rainfall is expected for the February–April period.

• The spring growing season may start a little late, but this rainfall will support sowing operations and the growth of seasonal plants and other perennial crops. This should result in near-average harvests.

• The Dominican agricultural labor market will continue to be important, offering the casual labor force living in the HT02 zone significantly higher pay than they would receive in Haiti.

• A large number of workers who are unable to migrate should participate in activities for the Spring growing season.

• The prices of local products (maize, beans, etc.) will follow their seasonal trend. They are expected to increase between January and June 2019, following the sowing activities during the spring growing season and also the lean season, and then to fall with the harvest from July onward.

• The prices of certain products from the Dominican Republic, especially broken rice, may increase as a result of the rise of the peso against the gourde.

Most likely food security outcomes

From February to May, the share of own production in food sources is expected to decrease. In this context, the market share in food consumption should increase. However, rising food commodity prices would likely mean lower purchasing power and limited access among the poorest to food commodities, even in households that rely more on traditional strategies.

To cope with the sustained rise in food prices, the poorest will rely even more heavily on strategies that usually form an integral part of their livelihoods, such as temporary migration or the sale of charcoal. These strategies intensify when areas are firstly Stressed and then in Crisis, such as now, when shocks are sustained and intensifying. Thus, these populations will have barely enough food to eat, and sometimes a slight shortfall. The poorest, who depend largely on market purchases for their food consumption, have seen their purchasing power diminish. This is the result of a significant decline in income-generating agricultural activities and high food commodity prices. This means that the lowlands area is expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the first outlook period.

Between June and September, consumption is not expected to worsen as households should be able to amass adequate reserves from the next harvest. There should therefore be a substantial increase in the proportion of domestic production in food consumption. Nevertheless, food purchases will remain important and will help some households diversify their diet. As local availability increases, local commodity prices will decrease, somewhat improving household purchasing power.

Agricultural income will also increase with the sale of crops, which is the main source of income for the poorest, followed by labor. It is therefore expected that different groups of households, especially the poorest, will see a slight improvement in their access to food, suggesting Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes.

HAITI Food Security Outlook February to September 2019

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HT03: Central Haut-Plateau (Thomassique, Cerca La Source, Cerca Carvajal)

Current situation

Seasonal progress: The HT03 zone is currently in the dry season, when rainfall is considerably lower. Agricultural activities have therefore slowed down and are concentrated mainly in irrigated areas or in some wet mountain areas. In Centre department, it usually rains from April to September, with increased rainfall between April and May and then from August to October. Like Haiti’s other agro-ecological regions, the HT03 zone has been experiencing significantly less rainfall since December. It is important to note, however, that the rains stopped earlier than usual, with the most affected communities located in Haut-Plateau (Thomassique, Cerca Carvajal, Cerca la Source).

Finally, in some localities in Hinche, Cerca Carvajal, Maissade and Thomonde, there are some small irrigation systems that allow farmers to water their land. These systems have enabled farmers to plant beans in winter, which will be harvested soon. In addition, the Ministry of Agriculture is setting up a food security project in these communes, which includes support for crop watering as one of its main components.

Close-to-average cumulative rainfall was recorded in the HT03 zone, especially from the second dekad period in January (Figure 7). The NDVI effectively shows a slight difference in vegetation to date, indicating stable vegetation cover in the area, despite an intense dry season.

Impact on seasonal crop production: For many farmers in the area, the current situation is normal and agricultural activities are slowing down until the next rainy season, which usually begins in April. For example, the 2018–2019 winter growing season has only begun in the localities of Haut-Plateau that have small irrigation systems or spray pumps, where bean plantations are being developed. Apart from beans and some banana plantations in these localities, agricultural activities are at a standstill.

The last harvests therefore go back to October for maize, groundnuts and beans and to November/December for pigeon peas. Mango trees are flowering at the moment and are likely to produce a good yield. Moreover, the water deficit is working in their favor, strengthening their flowering.

Food availability: Domestic production normally accounts for 15 percent of the food sources of poor households in the HT03 zone. Local food availability currently comprises groundnuts, black peas, maize and especially dried pigeon peas. In general, whether harvest time or not, the markets are still very well supplied by products imported mainly from neighboring Dominican Republic, while local products come from other parts of Haiti, as there is a structural deficit in food production in the HT03 zone. Another point to highlight is the fact that because of high food commodity prices, poor households still consume more affordable products from across the border, especially broken rice, known as “cabecit”.

Livestock situation: Most domestic animals are not in good physical condition due to drought, which is making water and fodder scarce and causing problems with their health. However, goats are in good shape as the current conditions suit them. Meanwhile, pigs and poultry are still at risk due to the prevalence of Teschen and Newcastle diseases.

Price and market developments: Food commodities are becoming less and less affordable, with high prices due to the gourde-dollar and gourde-peso exchange rates and the diminishing local food supply. For this reason, the poorest are consuming much more broken rice, which is more accessible, given their financial situation. As for the price of maize, a typical product in the zone, there is an upward trend throughout the year (Figure 8.a) until September. Moreover, maize prices remain significantly higher than last year and the five-year average.

Figure 6. Area of concern: HT03 Plateau-Central

Source: FEWS NET

Figure 7. Centre: Rainfall trends in mm and NDVI

2019

Source: VAM-WFP/ CHIRPS/ MODIS

HAITI Food Security Outlook February to September 2019

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The price of beans is also on the rise, following its fall in December due to competition from pigeon peas that were readily available. This trend will continue throughout the lean season coinciding with the planting season, until the next harvest from June onward (Figure 8.b). The price of this product followed its seasonal trend during the analysis period. However, as its price remains well above its five-year average, this product is becoming less and less affordable, despite being the only source of protein for poor and very poor households.

Demand for labor: For the very poor in the HT03 zone, their primary source of income still comes from selling their labor. Small-scale trade, including the sale of timber, charcoal and (to a very small degree) crops allow the very poor to make up for losses or supplement their income. At present, the absence of agricultural activities means there is almost no demand for workers, with farmers employing barely anyone. While they wait for the start of the new season, most agricultural laborers are working in the Dominican Republic border area as day laborers for Dominican farmers. At the same time, tree-cutting is taking place for the manufacture and sale of charcoal.

Assumptions

The most likely scenario for February to September 2019 is based on the following assumptions:

• Near-normal rainfall is expected, which would be favorable for the next agricultural season.

• Relations between Haiti and the Dominican Republic will be normal and the border will not be closed. Market supplies will be maintained.

• The Dominican agricultural labor market will continue to be important, offering the casual labor force living in the HT03 area significantly higher pay than they would receive in Haiti.

• The prices of certain products from the Dominican Republic, including broken rice, may increase as a result of the rise of the peso against the gourde.

• The prices of local products will follow their seasonal trend, i.e. they will increase during the sowing and lean season and decrease with the harvests in July and August. However, projections show prices well above the five-year average.

Most likely food security outcomes

Between February and May, local food availability will decrease due to Spring sowing activities and diminishing stocks. Domestic production will therefore account for only a small proportion of the food consumed by the poorest. In short, food consumption is expected to center slightly more around bananas, cassava and especially mango.

Although the demand for agricultural workers could increase with the activities of the Spring growing season, labor (the main source of income for the poorest) should continue as normal during this period. However, the amount of employment that will be created will depend much more on farmers’ ability to hire, as labor costs are rising, driven by Dominican demand. In addition, migration and small-trade, including the production and sale of charcoal may increase, especially with the lean season. However, the high or rising prices of some products will reduce the purchasing power of the income that will be

Figure 8.a. Hinche: Retail price of local grain maize (HTG/6 lbs)

Source: FEWS NET

Figure 8.b. Hinche: Retail price of local black peas (HTG/6 lbs)

Source: FEWS NET

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HAITI Food Security Outlook February to September 2019

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generated. The poorest are therefore expected to adopt crisis coping strategies, such as reducing portion sizes and the number of meals, and to increasingly resort to more common strategies in order to cope with a food security Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

From July, with the spring harvests, domestic production will return to its normal level of food supply. However, markets will still be important in terms of the source of food. Working in the neighboring Dominican Republic will remain a strong option. In addition, soil preparation activities for the Summer/Fall growing season will require more daily workers. Furthermore, normal Spring harvests in 2019 are expected not only to increase household availability but also to lower the prices of some local products, bringing the use of crisis or other strategies to a more or less normal level. These price reductions could help improve purchasing power somewhat. However, given the high vulnerability of some communities in Haut-Plateau, some municipalities are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), although a number of households are expected to gradually return to Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

EVENTS THAT MIGHT CHANGE THE OUTLOOK

Area Events Impact on food security outcomes Whole country Socio-political issues related

to the Petrocaribe case Reduced market supply and higher food prices Reduced food consumption among the poorest

Whole country Late start and irregular rainfall

Poor harvests

Grand Sud, Grand Nord

A significant climate shock: drought, flooding, etc.

Crop losses Reduced food availability

ABOUT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. To learn more, click here.