Food security in Iran (Based On FSI Indicator) · Food security is one of the world’s current...

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AbstractFood security is one of the world’s current challenges and problems. This is a matter of particular importance, especially in the Middle East region, with respect to its climatic conditions and political considerations. Population growth and shortage of production resources are the two concepts that will beset food security provision with challenges. Without being aware of the present status, weaknesses, strengths, opportunities, and threats, we will face a crisis while meeting a challenge. For this purpose, this paper discusses food security status in Iran. Food security is calculated and examined here from the perspective of food supply and with respect to the FSI index proposed by the IFAD (The International Fund for Agricultural Development). As per the calculations results, the index shows a value exceeding 90 percent for most of the studied years. Although the results indicate a favorable food security condition in Iran, it is necessary to consider that foodstuff imports played a major role in realization of the value. KeywordsFood security, Iran, FSI. I. INTRODUCTION The Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) recognizes right of access to food as one of the rights that humans enjoy inherently. Article 25 of the declaration stipulates that everyone has the right to a standard of living adequate for the health and well-being of himself and his family, including food. Today, food security is recognized as one of the criteria of appropriate governance [2] . Moreover, the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran - as final laws to determine country’s direction in different principles, especially articles 3, 29 and 43 - holds a clear position on food security and emphasizes provision for human needs [1]. Corn, rice, and wheat prices will increase by 104, 79, and 88 percent respectively during 2005 - 2050. In the meantime, dairy price will increase by 70 percent on average. On the other hand, number of those suffering from huger in the world will increase from 881 million in 2005 to more than 1 billion in 2050. Supply and demand factors will increase costs. Population growth and economic condition improvement will raise demand for foodstuff. Rapid growth of demand for milk and meat will increase price of corn and forage crops. Such a Mohammad Emami, Department of agricultural mechanization, Science and research branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran (PhD Student), email: [email protected] Hossein Bakhoda, Department of agricultural mechanization, Science and research branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran (Faculty member), email: [email protected] Ali Davoodi, Department of agricultural mechanization, Science and research branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran (MSC), email: [email protected] Rauf Hazinia, Department of agricultural mechanization, Science and research branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran (MSC), email: [email protected] price increase will endanger food security, particularly in the developing countries. As productivity growth in most developing countries is not sufficient to meet the growing demand, they are expected to have a considerable increase of foodstuff import. Climatic changes for a long time are also considered as a serious threat to food security [3]. The most optimistic predictions and demographic data estimated populations of 88.34 and 100.75 million for Iran in 2025 and 2050, respectively [5]. This prediction indicates that approximately 41 percent will be added to Iran population if current trend continues within the following four decades. Therefore, regardless of the current needs and shortages, we will face a crisis for provision of foodstuff and consequently a food security challenge. It is necessary to note that the demand rate, which is growing constantly, will face production environmental constraints, especially production resources, qualitative limitations of products, rate of wastes, economic and social conditions, and phenomenon of manufacturers immigration on the one hand, and will encounter global changes more seriously on the other hand [1]. Regional conditions also emphasize its importance. As one of the world’s developing regions, the Middle East has to entangle in most intended and unintended consequences of modernization. Increased birth rates, rapid expansion of population in the region, increased attention of policymakers to urbanization and neglect of rural development that has led to further immigration from villages to cities, uncontrolled expansion of government are among these factors. Agricultural development in this region was not in a way to provide a favorable level of national claims for food security and accessibility of foodstuff internal resources. Across Iran in the east and Morocco in the west, the Middle East suffers from an increasing dependency on foodstuff imports. This leads to a food security threat in the region and continues rapidly. Meanwhile, the Arab Spring showed that availability of foodstuff with its affordable or unaffordable prices is still one of the outstanding features of most economic, social, and political perspectives in the Middle East [4]. In spite of the great attention to hunger and malnutrition at the global level, world’s foodstuff security has remained vulnerable. New information of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations indicate that the world will not succeed to achieve the Millennium Development Goals to halve malnutrition prevalence by 2015 [6]. Therefore, we have to be prepared for what we will face in future. Such preparedness will not be possible without knowing the present status. Therefore, this paper discusses food security using the FSI index. Food security in Iran (Based On FSI Indicator) Mohammad Emami, Hossein Bakhoda, Ali Davoodi, and Rauf Hazinia 2nd Int'l Conference on Advances in Environment, Agriculture & Medical Sciences (ICAEAM'15), June 11-12, 2015, Antalya (Turkey) http://dx.doi.org/10.17758/IAAST.A0615040 47

Transcript of Food security in Iran (Based On FSI Indicator) · Food security is one of the world’s current...

Page 1: Food security in Iran (Based On FSI Indicator) · Food security is one of the world’s current challenges and problems. This is a matter of particular importance, especially in ...

Abstract— Food security is one of the world’s current challenges

and problems. This is a matter of particular importance, especially in

the Middle East region, with respect to its climatic conditions and

political considerations. Population growth and shortage of

production resources are the two concepts that will beset food

security provision with challenges. Without being aware of the

present status, weaknesses, strengths, opportunities, and threats, we

will face a crisis while meeting a challenge. For this purpose, this

paper discusses food security status in Iran. Food security is

calculated and examined here from the perspective of food supply

and with respect to the FSI index proposed by the IFAD (The

International Fund for Agricultural Development). As per the

calculations results, the index shows a value exceeding 90 percent for

most of the studied years. Although the results indicate a favorable

food security condition in Iran, it is necessary to consider that

foodstuff imports played a major role in realization of the value.

Keywords— Food security, Iran, FSI.

I. INTRODUCTION

The Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR)

recognizes right of access to food as one of the rights that

humans enjoy inherently. Article 25 of the declaration

stipulates that everyone has the right to a standard of living

adequate for the health and well-being of himself and his

family, including food. Today, food security is recognized as

one of the criteria of appropriate governance [2] . Moreover,

the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran - as final laws

to determine country’s direction in different principles,

especially articles 3, 29 and 43 - holds a clear position on food

security and emphasizes provision for human needs [1].

Corn, rice, and wheat prices will increase by 104, 79, and 88

percent respectively during 2005 - 2050. In the meantime,

dairy price will increase by 70 percent on average. On the

other hand, number of those suffering from huger in the world

will increase from 881 million in 2005 to more than 1 billion

in 2050. Supply and demand factors will increase costs.

Population growth and economic condition improvement will

raise demand for foodstuff. Rapid growth of demand for milk

and meat will increase price of corn and forage crops. Such a

Mohammad Emami, Department of agricultural mechanization, Science

and research branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran (PhD Student),

email: [email protected] Hossein Bakhoda, Department of agricultural mechanization, Science and

research branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran (Faculty member),

email: [email protected] Ali Davoodi, Department of agricultural mechanization, Science and

research branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran (MSC), email:

[email protected] Rauf Hazinia, Department of agricultural mechanization, Science and

research branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran (MSC), email:

[email protected]

price increase will endanger food security, particularly in the

developing countries. As productivity growth in most

developing countries is not sufficient to meet the growing

demand, they are expected to have a considerable increase of

foodstuff import. Climatic changes for a long time are also

considered as a serious threat to food security [3]. The most

optimistic predictions and demographic data estimated

populations of 88.34 and 100.75 million for Iran in 2025 and

2050, respectively [5]. This prediction indicates that

approximately 41 percent will be added to Iran population

if current trend continues within the following four decades.

Therefore, regardless of the current needs and shortages, we

will face a crisis for provision of foodstuff and consequently a

food security challenge. It is necessary to note that the demand

rate, which is growing constantly, will face production

environmental constraints, especially production resources,

qualitative limitations of products, rate of wastes, economic

and social conditions, and phenomenon of manufacturers

immigration on the one hand, and will encounter global

changes more seriously on the other hand [1]. Regional

conditions also emphasize its importance. As one of the

world’s developing regions, the Middle East has to entangle in

most intended and unintended consequences of modernization.

Increased birth rates, rapid expansion of population in the

region, increased attention of policymakers to urbanization

and neglect of rural development that has led to further

immigration from villages to cities, uncontrolled expansion of

government are among these factors. Agricultural

development in this region was not in a way to provide a

favorable level of national claims for food security and

accessibility of foodstuff internal resources. Across Iran in the

east and Morocco in the west, the Middle East suffers from an

increasing dependency on foodstuff imports. This leads to a

food security threat in the region and continues rapidly.

Meanwhile, the Arab Spring showed that availability of

foodstuff with its affordable or unaffordable prices is still one

of the outstanding features of most economic, social, and

political perspectives in the Middle East [4]. In spite of the

great attention to hunger and malnutrition at the global level,

world’s foodstuff security has remained vulnerable. New

information of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the

United Nations indicate that the world will not succeed to

achieve the Millennium Development Goals to halve

malnutrition prevalence by 2015 [6]. Therefore, we have to be

prepared for what we will face in future. Such preparedness

will not be possible without knowing the present status.

Therefore, this paper discusses food security using the FSI

index.

Food security in Iran (Based On FSI Indicator)

Mohammad Emami, Hossein Bakhoda, Ali Davoodi, and Rauf Hazinia

2nd Int'l Conference on Advances in Environment, Agriculture & Medical Sciences (ICAEAM'15), June 11-12, 2015, Antalya (Turkey)

http://dx.doi.org/10.17758/IAAST.A0615040 47

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II. METHODOLOGY

Two groups of factors affect food security. One group

includes the factors involving production, consumption,

business, and food and the other consists of social and climatic

conditions such as wars, struggles, revolutions, draughts, and

storms. Complexity of food security estimation is beyond its

definition and analysis. The indices such as ratio of food

supply per capita to required food, self-sufficiency, changes in

production and consumption that shows sustainability in

supply are usually used at global and national levels. This

study used an index, which provides an almost satisfactory

and comprehensive estimation by considering an important

part of the factors effective in food security. The index was

offered by IFAD and it was calculated as follows:

1 2 4 3

6 5

10.77 0.23

1 1

nx x x x

FSIx x

In the above relation:

xl is the daily calories supply per capita in proportion to the

required calories,

x2 is the annual growth rate of daily energy supply per capita,

x3 is food products production index,

x4 is self-sufficiency index,

x5 is production changes,

and x6 is consumption changes.

This index is mean of weight of the two expressions on the

right side of the equation, which contains a combination of the

single indices used in other studies; therefore, it is

comprehensive. The first relation shows food security on the

side of supply and demand (production and import) and the

second relation shows it on the side of production. The

expression of x1/(1+x6) shows the daily consumption index

weighted by changing consumption rates around its mean

during the study. Its multiplication by consumption growth

index reveals food security on the consumption side. (1+x2)n

indicates the differences among countries during the study

period (n). x3/(1+x5) is the production index weighted by its

changes around mean of production during the study period,

and its multiplication in self-sufficiency ratio (x4) shows

population ability to satisfy food requirements. Means of

weight of the two expressions, i.e. food consumption security

with a coefficient of 0.77 and food production security with a

coefficient of 0.23, shows food security index. If the second

coefficient is equal to zero, only calorie supply (consumption)

per capita will be considered in the calculation and its internal

supply of economy is ignored. The index increases in this

mode. Therefore, both the overall foodstuff supply and

internal production role should be considered for a correct

estimation of food security condition. Of course, further

weight is considered for the first relation because supply

provision in the first place is important - even through

importing.

The overall foodstuff supply including production and

essential goods import during one year was extracted in tons

from the food balance sheets of Islamic Republic of Iran for

estimating this index. The overall supplied (consumed)

calories were then calculated for addibility of different goods.

Therefore, production and consumption rates of the major

essential goods were converted into calories based on the food

value of each goods after deducting livestock and seed wastes

and consumptions. The overall production and consumption of

foodstuff was then obtained in calories and considered as a

basis for estimating the index.

III. CALCULATION OF DAILY CALORIES SUPPLY PER CAPITA

IN PROPORTION TO REQUIRED CALORIES

Access to foodstuff per capita is one of the effective

parameters in food security calculations, i.e. the average

amount of foodstuff allocated to each individual. To do so,

daily calories supply per capita was calculated. Of course,

there are different definitions for supply and its components

including production, import, export, and changes (increase or

decrease) of reserves. Production and import of major food

products between 1989 and 2006 were extracted from the

balance sheets of Islamic Republic of Iran for calculating

supply per capita, and total internal production and imports

were considered as the overall supply. The supplied calories

per capita was calculated after deducting the used items such

as import and feedstuff from the whole supply and dividing it

by the country’s total population.

IV. REQUIRED CALORIES FOR EACH INDIVIDUAL

First, frequencies of age and gender groups in each year

were calculated for an accurate estimation of the required

calories of each individual with respect to the various

nutritional needs of individuals in different gender and age

groups and the statistics obtained from Statistical Center of

Iran. Calories required for any group were then calculated as

per Table 1. Finally, the annual average of weight of the

required calories for different groups was obtained.

TABLE 1

CALORIES NEEDED BY THE BODY IN DIFFERENT AGE GROUPS AND GENDERS

Active Average

Activity

Daily

Activity

Age Gender

1000-1400 1000-1400 1000 2-3 Child (Boy & Girl)

1400-1800 1400-1600 1200 4-8

Female 1800-2200 1600-2000 1600 9-13

2400 2000 1800 14-18

2400 2000-2200 2000 19-30

2200 2000 1800 31-50

2000-2200 1800 1600 +51

1600-2000 1400-1600 1400 48

Male 2000-2600 1800-2200 1800 9-13

2800-3200 2400-2800 2200 14-18

3000 2600-2800 2400 19-30

2800-3000 2400-2600 2200 31-50

2400-2800 2200-2400 2000 +51

2nd Int'l Conference on Advances in Environment, Agriculture & Medical Sciences (ICAEAM'15), June 11-12, 2015, Antalya (Turkey)

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Regarding the above points, an estimation of the annual food

supply per capita was offered for each individual as far as

quantity and its nutritional values are concerned. It was then

calculated as x1 for each year by dividing the daily energy

consumption per capita on the daily calories required for each

individual. x1 was calculated for each year and inserted in the

relevant formula for calculating the food security index (Table

2).

TABLE II ENERGY CONSUMPTION

Year

Population

Total energy

consumption

(Million

calories)

Per capita

energy

consumption

per person

per year

(One million

calories per

year)

Per capita

energy

consumption

per person

per year

(One calorie

per year)

Energy

consumption

per capita

per day

(One calorie

per day)

1989 53185939 49356925 0.928007 928007 2542.485

1990 54495055 51095580 0.937619 937618.7 2568.818

1991 55837163 50236752 0.899701 899701 2464.934

1992 56655577 58306685 1.029143 1029143 2819.57

1993 57486453 57242985 0.995765 995764.8 2728.123

1994 58329984 55804507 0.956704 956703.6 2621.106

1995 59186372 63095536 1.066048 1066048 2920.68

1996 60055488 65566125 1.091759 1091759 2991.121

1997 60939744 65920363 1.08173 1081730 2963.644

1998 61842210 72253065 1.168345 1168345 3200.946

1999 62816928 69992267 1.114226 1114226 3052.675

2000 63861815 64362577 1.007841 1007841 2761.209

2001 64906702 71011204 1.09405 1094050 2997.398

2002 66300418 75774093 1.14289 1142890 3131.206

2003 67314814 74686354 1.109508 1109508 3039.749

2004 68344731 75851242 1.109833 1109833 3040.639

2005 69390405 79176392 1.141028 1141028 3126.104

2006 70495782 79831655 1.132432 1132432 3102.552

As shown in Diagram 1, the daily energy consumption per

capita had minor fluctuations during the study and it had

ultimately an increasing trend. Energy consumption per capita

increased from 2542.485 calories per person in 1989 to

3102.552 calories per person in 2006. Meanwhile, the

minimum and the maximum energy consumption per capita

were obtained as 2464.934 and 3200.946 in 1991 and 1998,

respectively.

Diagram 1: Energy consumption (calories per day)

V. ANNUAL GROWTH OF DAILY ENERGY SUPPLY PER CAPITA

The annual growth of daily energy supply per capita or the

annual growth of consumption, which is calculated and

inserted in the main formula of food security index as x2, is

obtained by the following relation:

x2 = (Total energy consumption in the relevant year - total

energy consumption in previous year) / Total energy

consumption in the relevant year

TABLE III

TOTAL CONSUMPTION AND ITS ANNUAL GROWTH RATE

year

Total

Consumption

Annual

Growth Rate

1989 49356925 -

1990 51095580 0.034028

1991 50236752 -0.0171

1992 58306685 0.138405

1993 57242985 -0.01858

1994 55804507 -0.02578

1995 63095536 0.115555

1996 65566125 0.037681

1997 65920363 0.005374

1998 72253065 0.087646

1999 69992267 -0.0323

2000 64362577 -0.08747

2001 71011204 0.093628

2002 75774093 0.062856

2003 74686354 -0.01456

2004 75851242 0.015358

2005 79176392 0.041997

2006 79831655 0.008208

2nd Int'l Conference on Advances in Environment, Agriculture & Medical Sciences (ICAEAM'15), June 11-12, 2015, Antalya (Turkey)

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Diagram 2: The annual growth rate of consumption

As Diagram 2 shows, the annual consumption growth has an

oscillatory mode and the oscillation is incremental with this

trend.

VI. FOOD PRODUCTS PRODUCTION INDEX

This index, which is shown by x3 in the main formula of

food security index, is obtained by dividing total production of

foodstuff in million calories in that year by the earlier year.

This index was considered as one for the base year. Total

amount of foodstuff in every year was obtained by adding the

annual production of each food item in tons and calculation

and conversion of the unit into calories.

Table IV

Calculate of the function of food production

Year

Total Food

production

Production

Function

1989 47328240 1

1990 57464775 1.214175

1991 60316884 1.274437

1992 67603098 1.428388

1993 70922557 1.498525

1994 72734390 1.536807

1995 72556473 1.533048

1996 69078122 1.459554

1997 68694239 1.451443

1998 80300636 1.696675

1999 65902597 1.392458

2000 59689405 1.261179

2001 69467250 1.467776

2002 87238900 1.843274

2003 93311695 1.971586

2004 97927213 2.069107 2005 98802609 2.087604

2006 101496098 2.144515

The research findings show that production function in Iran

had a growing trend during the study as compared with the

base year (1989), as it reached from 1.214175 in 1990 to

2.144515 in 2006. Diagram 3 shows the trend.

Diagram 3: Trend of the production function

VII. SELF-SUFFICIENCY INDEX

One of the major indices of food security measurement at

the macro level is self-sufficiency coefficient of food

products; in other words, the extent to satisfy the needs of a

country for essential good using internal production resources.

Although self-sufficiency of a country is not stable on

essential food products (from the perspective of foodstuff),

increasing foodstuff supply and strengthening country’s self-

sufficiency factor is very effective in developing access to

foodstuff, reducing foodstuff, and accessing deprived as well

as vulnerable and low-income rural groups to foodstuff. On

the other hand, increasing self-sufficiency coefficient is

considerably effective in improving international reputation of

political system and developing power and its legitimacy. It

also implies improvement of agriculture optimization,

effectiveness of capital and labor in agriculture sector,

efficiency of state policies, rural development, and research

and development of agriculture implicitly, all of which lead to

improve economic growth of a country, save money in foreign

currency expenditures, reduce dependency, and consequently

strengthen national security. This study calculated the

coefficient for any food product in each year with respect to

the following formula in order to calculate self-sufficiency

coefficient. It then considered mean of sum of the coefficients

for any year as the self-sufficiency coefficient of that year and

inserted it in main formula of the index (FSI):

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TABLE V

THE CALCULATION OF SELF-SUFFICIENCY INDEX (IN PERCENT)

year wheat rice potato suger bean Oil & fat Meats &

eggs milk

Other

cereal

Fruit &

vegetable total

1989 0.523565 0.702539 1 0.546432 0.988764 0.214176 0.927318 0.848464 0.630092 1.017586 0.681064

1990 0.703177 0.737253 0.9925049 0.462212 0.94186 0.204052 0.979452 0.893445 0.713018 1.01689 0.701844

1991 0.739885 0.825503 1.0063202 0.588945 0.937337 0.204074 0.922337 0.8384 0.190169 0.994985 0.631783

1992 0.780728 0.73665 1.0032126 0.524268 1.069088 0.254652 0.956865 0.911014 0.732467 1.023196 0.746585

1993 0.827743 0.679496 1.0091871 0.65325 1.213115 0.21006 0.933728 0.905358 0.777684 1.035195 0.760019

1994 0.825147 0.834185 1.0335621 0.562914 1.061083 0.218084 0.967296 0.961067 0.738744 1.056731 0.763434

1995 0.75906 0.689815 1.0004185 0.520352 0.99983 0.208663 0.95582 0.964385 0.748887 1.040482 0.726296

1996 0.725819 0.745775 1.0007314 0.401731 1.036785 0.178274 0.966226 0.989789 0.658224 1.037274 0.694921

1997 0.628373 0.786621 1.0361232 0.453957 1.265977 0.20921 0.96849 0.990237 0.636897 1.04392 0.723434

1998 0.771828 0.814427 1.001686 0.514812 1.16757 0.169838 0.973579 0.99076 0.824024 1.049175 0.746311

1999 0.584892 0.696879 1.0136746 0.431354 1.073058 0.147148 0.982488 0.998067 0.702004 1.066815 0.678463

2000 0.590537 0.628211 1.0217821 0.512189 1.019542 0.149533 0.98455 0.991394 0.458144 1.052653 0.652237

2001 0.582825 0.740145 1.0339713 0.494114 1.354161 0.186322 0.987693 1.000735 0.573199 1.045683 0.710849

2002 0.81431 0.733826 1.0017136 0.57654 1.275184 0.291634 0.986958 0.995348 0.723334 1.014707 0.788192

2003 0.945588 0.770183 1.0092724 0.825474 1.149265 0.284805 0.975481 0.942504 0.617867 1.021437 0.805672

2004 0.988435 0.691327 1.0094023 0.89727 1.139555 0.335153 0.976586 0.986064 0.631122 1.015192 0.824874

2005 0.992715 0.723987 1.048582 0.653579 1.109381 0.229621 0.989248 0.99408 0.597891 1.015167 0.771691

2006 0.935858 0.681896 1.027924 0.346371 0.88912 0.252243 0.980446 0.990286 0.610146 1.034154 0.707036

As Table 5 shows, the country’s self-sufficiency coefficient

for most food products including potatoes, cereals, types of

meats and eggs, milk is above 0.9, which indicates that the

country is in an appropriate condition. Meanwhile, self-

sufficiency values for wheat and rice are lower than other

foodstuff. Here, wastes take an effective role in the low level

of this rate. There will be a tangible increase in self-

sufficiency coefficient by controlling the value. For instance,

self-sufficiency coefficient of wheat increased incrementally

from 80.77 percent in 2002 to 103.81 percent in 2006; it

indicates an average annual growth of 6.47 percent. Self-

sufficiency coefficient of wheat during these years had some

fluctuation with the approximate average of 63 percent. Self-

sufficiency coefficient of potato exceeded one hundred percent

within this period, as it reached about 105 percent in 2006.

Self-sufficiency coefficients of sugar in 2003 and 2004 were

74.62 and 86.18, respectively, which are considered high rates.

However, with a reduction of 20.22 percent versus 2004, it

reached 68.75 percent in 2005, and it reached 40.33 percent in

2006 after a severe drop of 41.33 percent. Self-sufficiency

coefficient of cereals reduced from 127.51 in 2002 to 115.9

percent in 2005. On average, it indicates an annual reduction

of 4.5 percent, but it reached its lowest rate (88.91) in 2006

during these years. After a short period of reduction in 2003,

self-sufficiency coefficient of milk increased, this process is

evident in its supply per capita.

Diagram 4: Trend of food self-sufficiency

VIII. CHANGES IN PRODUCTION AND CHANGES IN

CONSUMPTION

The variables x5 and x6, which are respectively called changes

in production and changes in consumption and defined as the

standard deviation of deviation percentage of a process, were

calculated as follows:

With respect to the following relation, the production and

consumption process was estimated:

tx a bT

Where x is the rate of production during period t and T is the

time.

Each variable was then calculated for each year after

estimating the coefficient of this equation (b).

5

ˆ

ˆ

P xb

txb

5

ˆ

ˆ

P xb

txb

IX. FOOD SECURITY STATUS IN THE COUNTRY WITHIN THE

STUDIED YEARS

Finally, the index was calculated for the studied years after

calculating main components of the index, preparing final

table on Excel, and defining FSI calculation formula on Excel.

2nd Int'l Conference on Advances in Environment, Agriculture & Medical Sciences (ICAEAM'15), June 11-12, 2015, Antalya (Turkey)

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TABLE VI

CALCULATE THE INDEX OF FOOD SECURITY

year X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 FSI

1989

1.271242 0.034028

1 0.681064

18.31503 26.30435

0.907395

1990

1.284409 -0.0171

1.2141752 0.701844

22.45183 27.26618

0.963611

1991

1.232467 0.138405

1.2744375 0.631783

23.6158 26.79107

0.885489

1992

1.355562 -0.01858

1.4283882 0.746585

26.58936 31.25538

1.099051

1993

1.311597 -0.02578

1.4985251 0.760019

27.94406 30.66693

0.963279

1994

1.260147 0.115555

1.5368074 0.763434

28.68349 29.87117

0.937575

1995

1.404173 0.037681

1.5330482 0.726296

28.61088 33.90458

1.099878

1996

1.438039 0.005374

1.459554 0.694921

27.19133 35.27131

1.032825

1997

1.424829 0.087646

1.4514429 0.723434

27.03467 35.46728

1.004339

1998

1.538917 -0.0323

1.6966749 0.746311

31.77133 38.97054

1.148425

1999

1.467632 -0.08747

1.3924582 0.678463

25.89538 37.71986

0.966651

2000

1.327504 0.093628

1.2611795 0.652237

23.35972 34.60551

0.846334

2001

1.441057 0.062856

1.4677759 0.710849

27.35014 38.28354

1.065985

2002

1.449632 -0.01456

1.8432737 0.788192

34.60289 40.91838

1.090144

2003

1.407291 0.015358

1.971586 0.805672

37.08125 40.31664

1.027533

2004

1.407703 0.041997

2.0691074 0.824874

38.96488 40.96106

1.063251

2005

1.44727 0.008208

2.0876037 0.771691

39.32213 42.80054

1.079111

2006

1.436367

1.027239 2.1445145 0.707036

40.42137 43.16303

1.027239

Table 6 provides the FSI calculation results for 1989–2006.

According to the results, food security in Iran within the

studied years exceeded 90 percent on average and the index

was even exceeded 100 percent in some years. Maximum and

minimum rates of the FSI calculations were 1.14 (year 1998)

and about 0.84 (year 2000), respectively. In general, based on

the FSI index, the calculation of food security index in Iran

implies food security provision in the country. In fact, based

on the index, it can be stated that Iran acted successfully on

food security during the studied years (1989-2006) and

experienced a favorable condition. Diagram 5 shows changes

process of the index within this period.

Diagram 5: Food security changes

X. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

From the perspective of the potential power of food

consumption in the society, the research results show Iran’s

status at a favorable level during the study period. Country’s

internal production has been responsible for maintaining a

portion of the favorable level and another portion has been the

result of the imports during these years. The import trend of

ten major food products during the study period is shown

Diagrams 6 and 7. As in the diagrams, exports of other food

products were increasing except for milk and the group of

types of meats and egg. Wheat import has had a descending

trend since 2001 and has reached its minimum rate in 2004

when authorities stated that Iran had been self-sufficient in this

field. However, an increasing trend of import has started since

the following year, as wheat import was about 100 tons in

2005. Wheat import reached about one million tons in 2006,

which is approximately 10 times bigger than the one in 2005.

Diagram 6: Trend of imports of Wheat, Rice & Other cereals

As shown by Diagrams 4-9, rice and other cereals groups

had also increasing import trends during 1989-2006. The

maximum and the minimum rates of rice import were recorded

in 2006 and 1991 as 1,220,601 and 498,173 tons, respectively.

The maximum rate of import (5,122,162 tons) and the

minimum rate of import (1867646 tons) for other cereals

group were recorded in 2006 and 2000, respectively.

Diagram 7: Trend of imports of Meats and Eggs, Milk & Oil and Fat

Diagram 6 shows that only milk group import had a

descending import trend among the three groups of types of

meats and egg, milk, types of oils and fats. The annual milk

import in 1989 was 671,000 tons whereas it reached its

minimum amount in 2001 during the study period. Milk

import in 2001 was 5494 tons; however, it has had an

increasing import trend since 2001, as it had a great leap

(386,620 tons) in 2003. Finally, milk import in Iran was

194,111 tons in 2006. There was also a descending trend in

importing group of meats and egg. The trend’s slope was

lower than the ones of milk group. Import of types of meats

and egg in 1989 was 116,000 tons, which decreased to 70,099

tons in 2006 whereas the import of types of oils and fat had an

increasing trend during 1989-2006 as import of this group

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http://dx.doi.org/10.17758/IAAST.A0615040 52

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increased from 139,000 tons in 1989 to 387,428.6 tons in

2006.

In conclusion, the agriculture sector plays a crucial and

influential role in realization of food security in each country,

as it takes major responsibilities for providing food security.

There is no doubt about enjoying a robust and stable

agriculture to provide present and future needs of a country

and taking a suitable role of this sector, but it requires the

special attention of country’s policymakers to the agriculture

sector..

REFERENCES

[1] Emami, M.. M.sc's thesis, “The Effects of Mechanization indices on

Food Security in Iran”. Tehran, Islamic Azad University, Science and

Research Branch , (2012).

[2] Lahoz, C., Ossorio, E. D., & Ekwall, B. “Guidance Note: Integrating

the RIGHT TO ADEQUATE FOOD into food and nutrition security

programmes”. FAO, (2013).

[3] Rosegrant, M. W., Koo, J., Cenacchi, N., Ringler, C., Robertson, R.,

Fisher, M., et al. “Food Security in a World of Natural Resource

Scarcity, The Role of Agricultural Technologies”. Washington, DC:

IFPRI , (2014).

[4] Abi Said, M., Hakimi, A., Babar, Z., Bush, R., Chaaban, J., Crist, J. T.,

et al. “Food Security and Food S” , (2012).

[5] Population Reference bureau. “The 2007 World Population data

sheet”.Washington: POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU [PRB] ,

(2007).

[6] FAN, S. F. Global Food Policy Report. “Washington, DC: International

Food Policy Research Institute”, (2013).

2nd Int'l Conference on Advances in Environment, Agriculture & Medical Sciences (ICAEAM'15), June 11-12, 2015, Antalya (Turkey)

http://dx.doi.org/10.17758/IAAST.A0615040 53