Food Security in Ethiopia Depth of Issue and Stakeholder Analysis Prepared By: Catherine Thompson,...

Food Security in EthiopiaDepth of Issue and Stakeholder Analysis

Prepared By: Catherine Thompson, Jennifer Prenger, Mark MacKew, Michael Plevan,

Sarah Cruikshank, Sean Jellow, Siobhan Keer

Date: Friday September 29th 2011

Wilfrid Laurier University & Balsillie School of International Affairs

FAO Definition

… “food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and

food preferences for an active and healthy life”…

Source: FAO

Presentation Overview

• Depth of Issue• Nutrition• Demographics• Agriculture• Economics• Governance/Rule of Law

• Stakeholder Analysis• Local Level• National Level• International Level

Source: FAO Stats 2005-2007

Nutritional Health: Overview

Prevalence of Undernourishment • 41% of the total Ethiopian population is undernourished

• 31.6 million people • Higher than sub-Saharan average (30%)

Nutritional Health: Overview

Source: FAO Stats 2005-2007; International Food Policy Research Institute 2010

Source: WHO 2005

Nutritional Health: Vulnerable Populations

Women• 26.9% of women are undernourished (2005)• Twice the sub-Saharan average (13.3%)• Affects overall health, including ability to survive

childbirth • Maternal mortality ratio: 470 per 100,000 births• Women’s undernourishment significantly affects the

health of their children


Children• 20% of infants have low birth weight (2009)• Pregnancy and the first two years of life are a vital time

period for nutrition and developmental health• Undernourishment in the first two years can cause

irreversible, long-term damage

Source: UNICEF 2009

Source: WHO 2005


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<5 Underweight; moderate and severe<5 Stunting; moderate and severe<5 Wasting; moderate and severe

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Source: UNICEF 2003-2009


Children• Infant mortality rate: 67 per 1000 live births• Under-5 mortality rate: 106 per 1000 live births• Malnutrition is the underlying cause in 57% of deaths of

children under five years of age

Demographics: Population Distribution

Source: UNICEF 2005-2008

Demographics: HDI and Poverty Index

• Human Development Index: 0.328• Rank: 157th worst out of 169• HDI trends since 2000 have been below sub-Saharan

average every year• In the UNDP Human Poverty Index, Ethiopia is the fourth

poorest country among those surveyed (130th out of 134)

Source: UNDP(a) 2010; UNDP(b) 2007

Demographics: Ethnic groups

Source: Ethiopia Country Report, 2010

Note: Not to Scale

Demographics: Education

• Adult literacy 36% • Combined gross enrolment in primary education (both

sexes) is 49% • Mean years of schooling of adults is 1.5 years• Expected years of schooling of children is 8.3 years

Source: UNDP 2010

Agriculture: Overview• Potential arable land 55 million ha (50% of total land

mass)• 14% of total land mass under crop cultivation• 96 % of farms are smallholder farms

Source: UNDP & ESSP

Agriculture: Importance• Employs 80+ % of Ethiopian labour force• Accounts for 40% of GDP• Average growth rates of 8% annually in past 10 years

Source: UNDP 2011

Agriculture: Main Crops• 93% of total area cultivated in grains, of which 73.4%

cereals• Cash crops account for 4.2 % of total area cultivated.

Major cash crops are coffee and chat

Source: USDA & ESSP

Agriculture: Farmer Profile

Source: Chamberlin and Taffesse

Agriculture: Yields• Cereal production more than doubled from 1997-98 to

2007-08• Mostly due to increased acreage farmed, rather than

increased yields• Cereals yields still lower than Least Developed Countries

average

Source: ESSP

Agriculture: Intensification • 39% of land growing cereals used fertilizers• 4.7 % used improved seeds• 1.1 % irrigated• 14.5% used extension packages

• Result: low yields, vulnerability to poor weather

Source: Chamberlin and Taffesse

Agriculture: Annual Rainfall Averages

Source: National Meteorically Services, 2000

Agriculture: Land Degradation• Costs of lost soil and nutrients estimated at 3% of GDP

annually• 30,000 hectares lost to water erosion• 62,000 hectares of forest land cleared annually

Source: Berry

Economics: Overview

Sources: Ethiopia Country Report, 2010

Economics: Ability to Purchase FoodFactor Value

GDP, Overall $8.6Billion US, 2010

GDP per capita $358 US/year, 2010

Purchasing Power Parity $1,033 US/year, 2010

Consumer Price Index 223 (base year =2005), 2010

Food Price Index 231.8, August 2011

Inflation 8.1% Consumer Rate, 2010

Poverty Line 38.7%, 2006

Source: CIA World Factbook, 2011, FAO 2011 & World Development Indicators, 2010

Economics: Ability to Produce Food• Financing is not easily accessible

• State-run Banks & No foreign banks allowed• Hard to find start-up loans rurally

• Lending Rates – 8% in 2010• Household Consumption Expenditure – 89.4% in 2010• Government Deficiencies

• $4.8B Cash Deficit as of 2005• Trade Deficit, 21% of GDP in 2010

Sources: Ethiopia Country Report, 2010 & World Development Indicators, 2010

Economics: Imports & Exports

Factor Imports Exports

Days 45 in 2010 44 in 2010

Container Costs $2,993US in 2010 $1,898US in 2010

Food (% of Total) 10.9% in 2009 77% in 2009

Trade Deficit Total $4B in 2008 Net 21% in 2010

Sources: World Development Indicators, 2010

Governance/Rule of Law: Power of Government

• One party (EPRDF) dominance since 1994• Extent of central government’s influence is embedded in

society• Ethiopian citizens are denied real access to a democratic

process

Sources: Ethiopia Country Report, 2010 & Freedom in the World Ethiopia, 2011

Governance/Rule of Law: Corruption• Corruption has become a normal way of life for

Ethiopians• “Land of 10%”

• Preferential treatment (land agreements, business contracts, university positions) is given to party members

• Collusion between private sector players and government officials

Sources: 2011 Index of Economic Freedom & Global Corruption Report, 2009

Governance/Rule of Law: Judiciary• Independent but appointed by key political actors• Very rarely review or change government legislature

• Tendency to follow EPDRF party rhetoric • 2009 Proclamation for the Registration and Regulation of

Charities and Societies

Sources: Ethiopia Country Report, 2010; Freedom in the World: Country Report Ethiopia, 2011 & Leicht, 2009

Local Stakeholders

Sources: von Braun and Olofinbayi, 2007 & World Food Program and UNICEF, 2009

Local Stakeholders

• Local business• Significant decrease in sales• Increase in credit-seeking buyers

• Lack of accountability in local government• Local NGOs

• Council of elders • Community grassroots organizations

Sources: World Food Program and UNICEF, 2009& Paarlberg, 2002

National Level Stakeholders

• Federal Government• Federal Ethics Anti-corruption Committee (FEAC)• Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE)• Professional Alliance for Development Ethiopia (PADet)• Civil Society• National Bank of Ethiopia• Universities• Private Business• Epistemic Community


Federal Government• Issues:

• Handles the majority of its resources inefficiently• Corruption low accountability and transparency• Current practices do not address the World Food

Program’s “Threats to Food Security”• Several development and poverty reduction plans

already implemented that do not produce adequate results

• Has the potential to be a positive contributor or a negative contributor

Sources: Ethiopia Country Report, 2010 & World Food Program


Federal Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission• Independent federal government body accountable to the Prime Minister• Head office in Addis Ababa• The commissions objectives:

• In cooperation with relevant bodies, to strive to create an aware society where corruption will not be condoned or tolerated by promoting ethics and anti-corruption education;

• In cooperation with relevant bodies, to prevent corruption offences and other improprieties;

• To expose, investigate and prosecute corruption offences and impropriety.

• Potential positive contributor = need to bolster and utilize• Possible venue through which to curtail negative government involvement

Sources: FEAC, 2011

National Level StakeholdersEthiopian Grain Trade Enterprise• Head Office in Addis Ababa, has 10 branch offices and 91 trade centers

throughout the country• Vision:

• “To see [a] stabilized agricultural product market in [the] country and be a leader in export revenue earning.”

• Objectives:• To purchase grain from local farmers in order to sell it primarily in the

export market• To facilitate the stabilization of the market for local farmers and encourage

them to increase production• Issue: not effective in accomplishing its goals on a large scale, possibly due

to lack of resources available to them• Are a potential positive contributor• Not including this agency would be a waste of resources and would create

overlap Source: EGTE, 2011


Professional Alliance for Development Ethiopia• An indigenous, not-for-profit, non-governmental

humanitarian organization established in 1998 by a group of voluntary development professionals• funded primarily by international organizations• A member of many networks, alliances

• Issue: mission/vision of the agency are commendable, but today is not an abundantly effective agency

• A potential positive contributor• Involving this agency as a primary stakeholder is an

opportunity to revive the organization and utilize its resources

Source: PADet, 2011

National Level StakeholdersCivil Society• National NGOs• Advocacy Groups• Interest Groups• Social Movements• Community Level self-help networks• Councils of Elders• Issues:

• Rudimentary system of organized groups• Ignored and undermined by government• Only accepted mechanism of mediation between government and society are

councils of elders• Potential positive contributors• Some groups show high resiliency • Civil society can reach rural areas that are often left out• Bolstering civil society will produce positive externalities

Sources: Ethiopia Country Report, 2010

International StakeholdersUnited Nations• The UN Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) 2008-2011 and Ethiopia’s 5 Year

Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) set goals for agricultural and industrial growth. UNDAF then set out priority areas in which it can best help achieve the goals set forth in the GTP.

• Organizations Involved• World Food Program (WFP)

• Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP)• Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation Ethiopia• Managing Environmental Resources to Enable Transition (MERET)• School Meals programme

• Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) • Asset development• Education • Climate change adaptation • Small scale irrigation

• UN Environment Programme (UNEP)• Programme in Africa• Strategic Framework for Africa

International Stakeholders

International Financial Institutions• Provide the vast majority of loans, funding and economic assistance for Ethiopian

development programs. These cover programs vary in scope and funding levels. • Organizations Involved

• World Bank, through the International Development Association (IDA) is Ethiopia’s largest provider of official development assistance: has committed over US$7 billion to more than 60 projects in Ethiopia since 1991

• Country Assistance Strategy• Irrigation and Drainage• Agricultural Growth Project• Food Security Project

• World Trade Organization• Observer Status• Currently processing Accession• Working Party Established in2003

• International Monetary Fund• Qualified as a Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) in 2001 and received

$1.3B in debt relief

International StakeholdersInternational Civil Society• In 2008 the Proclamation to Provide for the Registration and Regulation of Charities

and Societies was signed into law. This law discriminates against Ethiopian CSOs that receive more than 1/10 of their income from abroad, by preventing them from working on vital issues of public importance and contributing to national life in Ethiopia. This severely limits domestic NGO activity. Nonetheless, there are many international organizations involved in Ethiopia food security crisis.

• International Food Policy Research Institute • Ethiopian Strategy Support Program in conjunction with Ethiopian Development

Research Institute, CSA and the Ministry of Agriculture to conduct research, develop research capacity, increase informational databases and develop agricultural and food security analysis.

• Global Agriculture and Food Security Programme • Raising Agricultural Productivity• Linking Farmers to markets• Capacity building

• Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR)• Connection building and research coordination (such as IFPRI)

International Stakeholders

Other Nations• Since 2003, investment in the agricultural and infrastructure sectors,

particularly from India, China and Saudi Arabia has increased substantially.

Principle Investors• India

• In 2007-2008, investment agreements with reached close to $1 billion• Ethiopia has offered 1.8 million hectares of its farmland to Indian investors

for export to India• May top $10 billion by 2015

• China • Construction of the 300-megawatt Tekeze hydroelectric project in Ethiopia

began in 2002. The $224 million project is the largest African joint venture with China and will

• Last year, Ethiopian exports to China rose by 140%.• Saudi Arabia

• Purchased 100,000 acres of Ethiopian land to produce food for export back to the kingdom.

To Conclude…

Q&A Period

Works CitedAfrican Development Bank. “IMF/ World Bank HIPC Document for Ethiopia.”. African Development

Bank. Online. Accessed September 2011http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Financial-Information/ADB-BD-WP-2002-12-EN-ETHIOPIA-HIPC-APPROVAL-DOCUMENT.PDF

Berry, Leonard. 2003. Land Degradation in Ethiopia: its Extent and Impact. Global Mechanism, UN Convention to Combat Desertification.

Bertelsmann Stiftung, BTI 2010 — Ethiopia Country Report. Gütersloh: Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2009.

Chamberlin, Jordan and Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse. 2009. Crop Production in Ethiopia: A Spatial-Structural Analysis. International Food Policy Research Institute ESSP II/EDRI seminar 16 Mar 2009.

“Buying Farmland Abroad: Outsourcings Third Wave”. The Economist. May 21st 2009. Online. Accessed September 2011. http://www.economist.com/node/13692889?story_id=13692889

Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research. “Who We Are”. CGIAR. Online. Accessed September 2011 http://www.cgiar.org/who/index.html

Davison, William. “India Investment in Ethiopia May Double to $10 Billion by 2015, Meles Says” Bloomberg. May 25, 2011. Online. Accessed September 2011. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-25/india-investment-in-ethiopia-may-double-to-10-billion-by-2015-meles-says.html

England, Andrew and Javier Blas. “Arable Land, the new gold rush” Afrik-News. August 20 th, 2008. Online. Accessed September 2011. http://www.afrik-news.com/article14301.html

Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise. 2011. Web. 24 Sept. 2011. http://egtemis.com/.

Food and Agriculture Organization. Statistics Division http://www.fao.org/economic/ess/ess-fs fs-data/ess-fadata/en/ Accessed: Sept. 25, 2011

Works CitedFAO. “Projects in Ethiopia”. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Online.

Accessed Sept 2011 hcoin.fao.org/cms/world/ethiopia/Projects.html.

Freedom House. 'Freedom in the World: Country Report, Ethiopia'. http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=22&country=8036&year=2011 (accessed September 27 2011)

Global Advice Network. 'Business Anti-corruption Portal: Ethiopia Country Profile'. http://www.business-anti-corruption.com/country-profiles/sub-saharan-africa/ethiopia/general-information/ (accessed September 27 2011)

International Food Policy Research Institute, “2010 Global Hunger Index.” http://www.ifpri.org/publication/2010-global-hunger-index. Accessed Sept. 27, 2011

Joachim von Braun, Tolulope Olofinbiyi (2007). Case Study #7-4, "Famine and Food Insecurity in Ethiopia". In: Per Pinstrup-Andersen and Fuzhi Cheng (editors), "Food Policy for Developing Countries: Case Studies." http://cip.cornell.edu/dns.gfs/1200428184

Leicht,Lotte. 'EU should not tolerate Ethiopia's repression'. Published in European Voice. Published online by Human Rights Watch. http://www.hrw.org/en/news/2009/02/18/eu-should-not-tolerate-ethiopias-repression (accessed September 28 2011)

"Major Objectives of the FEAC." The Federal Ethics and Anti-corruption Commission. 2011. Web. 24 Sept. 2011. http://www.feac.gov.et/web_collection/main_objectives_feac_english_starter.htm.

Paarlberg, Robert M., "Governance and Food Security in an Age of Globalization". Food, Agriculture, and the Environment Discussion Paper 36, International Food Policy Research Institute. 2002. http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/pubs/2020/dp/2020dp36.pdf

Professional Alliance for Development Ethiopia. 2011. Web. 24 Sept. 2011. http://www.padet.org.et/about_padet/about_padet.html.

Works CitedThe Heritage Foundation and the Wall Street Journal. '2011 Index of Economic Freedom.'

http://www.heritage.org/index/Country/Ethiopia (accessed September 28 2011).

Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum, Paul Dorosh and Sinafikeh Asrat. 2011. Crop Production in Ethiopia: Regional Patterns and Trends. Ethiopia Strategy Support Program II (ESSP II) ESSP II Working Paper No. 0016 March 2011 Int’l Food Policy Research Institute.

Tefera, Derbrew. “Ethiopia offers India Farmland for investment” The Economic Times. Feb 2, 2011. Online. Accessed September 2011. http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-02-02/news/28432446_1_indian-investors-cultivable-land-indian-exports.

Transparency International. 'Global Corruption Report 2009: Africa and the Middle East'. 2009. http://www.transparency.org/publications/gcr/gcr_2009#6.1

United Nations Development Programme. “Ethiopian Crop Yields to Get Boost From UNDP, Gates Foundation.” News release, 21 July, 2011.

UNICEF, “Statistics.” http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/ethiopia_statistics.html Accessed Sept. 26, 2011

UNDP, “Ethiopia: Country profile of human development indicators.” http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/ETH.html Accessed Sept. 28, 2011

UNDP, “Human Development Report 2009.” http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/indicators/96.html Accessed Sept. 27, 2011

U.S. Department of Agriculture. Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, Foreign Agricultural Service http://www.fas.usda.gov/pecad2/highlights/2002/10/ethiopia/baseline/Eth_Crop_Production.htm

Food Security in Ethiopia Depth of Issue and Stakeholder Analysis Prepared By: Catherine Thompson,...

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