Food Security in Afghanistan
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Transcript of Food Security in Afghanistan
Status of Food Security in Status of Food Security in AfghanistanAfghanistan
PRESENTED BY:Masaood Moahid MAJOR ADVISOR : PALB 2110 Dr. T.N Prakash Kammaradi
SEMINAR TEACHERS: Dr. G.S. MAHADEVIAH
Sri. HONNIAH
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Introduction
Afghanistan
Food security & its four aspects
World food scenario
Major characteristics of food insecurity in Afghanistan
Physical availability of food in Afghanistan
Importance of wheat in Afghan food security
Inflation & consumers’ price index
Food security by region and terrain
Food Security and Strategic Framework of MAIL
Wheat Flour Price Shocks and Household Food Security in Afghanistan by USDA in 2011
Main causes of food insecurity in Afghanistan
Conclusion
References
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Afghanistan
The center or heart of Asia
A landlocked country, making the trade
of goods difficult and expensive.
Capital: Kabul
Area: 6.5 lack km = Rajistan + MP
Population: 33.4 millions (FAO
Estimate 2013)
More than99 % Muslim, some Hindu and
Sikh communities
Main ethnic groups: Pashtun, Tajik,
Hazara, Uzbek
Currency: Afghani (AFN) 1 Rs = 0.93
AFN
Latitudes 29° N and 39° N, Latitudes 29° N and 39° N,
and longitudes 60° E and 75° Eand longitudes 60° E and 75° E
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Conti…. It has rugged mountains and plains and is prone
to natural disasters such as earthquakes and drought.
Temperatures are extreme, [(49.9 °C)- (−46 °C)]
A highly mineral-rich country
Agriculture - products: wheat, fruits, nuts, Saffron, onion, cotton, wool, meat.
Export commodities: fruits and nuts, carpets, wool, cotton, hides, precious and semi-precious gems.
Imports : machinery and other capital goods, food, textiles.
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Figure: 1: Conceptual Model of Food SecurityFigure: 1: Conceptual Model of Food Security99
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World Food Security Scenario
Worldwide around 842 million people are chronically hungry due to extreme poverty.
17,000 children die of hunger and undernutrition related diseases every day, which equals 6 million children who die of hunger every year.
The number is declining due to:- increased economic growth-the fall in international food prices since 2008
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Table1: Undernourishment around the world, 1990-92 to 2011-13 (millions)
1990-92 2000-02 2005-07 2008-10 2011-13*
World 1015.3 957.3 906.6 878.2 842.3
Developed Regions 19.8 18.4 13.6 15.2 15.7
Developing Regions 995.9 938.9 992.9 863 826
Africa 177.6 214.3 217.6 226 226.4
Northern Africa 4.6 4.9 4.8 4.4 3.7
Sub-Saharan Africa 173.1 209.5 212.8 221.6 222.6
Asia 751.3 662.3 619.6 585.5 552
Central Asia 9.7 11.6 7.3 7 5.5
Eastern Asia 278.7 193.5 184.8 169.1 166.6
South-Eastern Asia
140.3 113.6 94.2 80.5 64.5
Southern Asia 314.3 330.2 316.6 309.9 297.7
Western Asia 8.4 13.5 16.8 19.1 20.6
Latin America and the
Caribbean65.7 61 54.6 50.3 47
Caribbean 8.3 7.2 7.5 6.8 7.2
Latin America 57.4 53.8 47.2 43.5 39.8
Oceania 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2
Source: FAOSTAT
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Figure 2: (%) of undernourishment around the world Source: FAOSTATSource: FAOSTAT
%%
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MAJOR CHARACTERISTICS OF FOOD INSECURITY IN AFGHANISTAN
Food insecurity in Afghanistan is a complex problem with multiple sources that reportedly affects over 30 percent of the population. (World Bank)
At the household level, food insecurity in Afghanistan is largely caused by inadequate access to food.
The lack of food has been the cause of food insecurity in Afghanistan in times of drought and in isolated communities located at high elevations during winter months.
As of World Bank: “Even where household access to food is sufficient, utilization of food and nutritional outcomes is inadequate.
“access” can be broadly considered as the major or primary characteristic of food insecurity in Afghanistan, but the “availability” and “utilization” of food are also important factors which, depending on the subject beneficiary population.
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Table 2: Cereal Production in Afghanistan, Demand and Gap 2004-2012 (thousands of tons)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20112004-11
(Av.)
Total Cereal production
3,057 5,243 4,447 5,443
3,860 6,333 5,726 4,444 4,819
Total Demand 5,717 5,866 6,018 6,175 6,500 6,630 6,410 6,340 6,207
Demand-Supply Gap 2,660 623 1,571 732 2,640 297 684 1,896 1,388
Self-Sufficiency Rate (%)
53 89 74 88 59 96 89 70
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Source: www.mail.gov.af (2012)Source: www.mail.gov.af (2012)
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Source: mail.gov.af (2012)Source: mail.gov.af (2012)
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Source: FAOSTATSource: FAOSTAT
Table 3: CID ratio of Afghanistan and regional countries (%)
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0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
Afghanistan India Iran (Islamic Republic of) Pakistan
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Figure 3: CID Ratio, Afghanistan and Region (%)
Source: NRVA 2009Source: NRVA 2009
Figure 3: Food Consumption by Product Category Figure 3: Food Consumption by Product Category
2020
Source: FAOSTATSource: FAOSTAT
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Figure 5: Average value of Food Production, USD
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Afghanistan 170
Pakistan 106
Iran 160
Uzbekistan 164
Asia Region 66
Table 4: Per Capita Wheat Table 4: Per Capita Wheat Consumption (Kg) Selected Consumption (Kg) Selected Countries and Asia RegionCountries and Asia Region
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Source :FEWS NET, ‘Northern Wheat Trader Survey and Afghan Food Security, Bruce Schulte, 2007.
Table 5: Production Imports, Aid and MAIL est. Requirement of Wheat in Afghanistan (000, MT), (2006-2001)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20112006-11
(Av.)
Production 3363 4343 2767 5115 4532 3388
3,918
Imports 555
316
324
583
1,135
803
619
Food Aid ( Cereals)
84 174
212
218
82
Nil 154
MAIL Est. Requirement
4,820
4,917
4,722
5,260
5,231
5,163
5,019
Total Supply 4002 4833 3303 5916 5749 4191
4,666
Deficit as of Total Supply 818
84
1,419
(656)
(518)
972
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Deficit as % of Total Supply
20.44% 1.74% 42.96% -11.09% -9.01% 23.19% 7.57%
Source: MAIL (2012)
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Source: MAILSource: MAIL
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Source: www.mail.gov.afSource: www.mail.gov.af
Figure 8: Irrigated & Rainfed Wheat Production in Afghanistan
Source: MAIL (2012)
Figure 9:Retail Wheat Prices in Afghanistan (USD $) 2006-2012
Jan. 2006 Jan. 07 Jan. 08 Jan. 09 Jan. 10 Jan. 11 Jan. 12
Series1 0.28 0.274 0.76 0.44 0.42 0.44 0.43
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Robert Robert GiffenGiffen
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Figure 10: Afghan households spent more on grains and less on other foods as wheat prices increased between August 2007 and September 2008
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Figure 11 : Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year
Source: www.cso.gov.afSource: www.cso.gov.af
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Figure 12 : Consumer Price Index (2005-06)-(2009-10)
Table 8: National Consumer Price Index, Annual Inflation Rate (%) Items 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10
Overall Index 9 4.5 22.5 4.9 -4.5 Food 7.7 6 31.9 4.3 -9.1
Bread and cereals 8.1 4.8 52.3 3 -19
Fall Winter Spring Summer
Price of domestic wheat flour per (kg)
18.09 23.51 34.19 36.51
Price of vegetable oil per (kg)
64.81 76.93 88.9 91.7
Price of domestic rice per (kg)
33.93 33.99 46.16 55.26
Price of lamb per (kg) 182.34 186.2 189.28 180.27
Price of milk per (kg) 23.44 25.66 27.23 30.75
Price of fuel gas per (kg) 43.15 63 46.83 55.48
Note: Estimated population weighted means. Prices in Afghani per kilogram
Source: NRVA 2007/08Source: NRVA 2007/08
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• Afghan households coped with the sudden rise in food prices by cutting back on overall food consumption and, to a lesser extent, on calories consumed.
• Households were able to buffer the effects of the wheat flour price shocks on calories consumed by changing the composition of their diets, moving away from micronutrient-rich foods, such as meat, fruits, and vegetables, toward grains.
• The decline in household food security was felt across both rural and urban areas. Urban households made changes that led to large declines in food consumption, but were able to maintain calories by greatly reducing the diversity of their diets and buying cheaper foods. Rural households made changes that led to smaller declines in their food consumption and in the variety of foods they consumed, but relatively larger declines in calories.
• As the price of wheat flour increased, demand for wheat products was relatively steady in rural areas, but rose in urban areas.
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Table 10: Population statistics by area and household type
National Rural Urban Agricultural Household
Nonagricultural households
Nominal value of monthly per capita total consumption (AFN) 19,25.60 1,675.50 2,931.47 1,752.20 2,159.44
Nominal value of monthly per capita food consumption (AFN) 1,158.22 1,104.57 1,370.82 1,133.96 1,189.42
Food Consumption Score 60.95 59.58 66.46 61.59 60.07
Price of domestic wheat flour (AFN per kg) 25.33 25.52 24.5 25.77 24.7
Price of vegetable oil (AFN per kg) 43.8 43.9 43.2 44 43.6
Price of domestic rice (AFN per kg) 37.2 37.2 36.9 37.3 37
Price of fuel gas (AFN per kg) 44.6 46 43.2 45.8 43.3
Note: Estimates are population-weighted means
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Source: USDA, Economic Research Service
Table 11:3636
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service
Table 12: The impact of higher food prices on household well-being
Log real value of per capita monthly food consumption
Log per capita calories availability
Log food consumption score
Log per capita daily protein availability
Log wheat flour price -0.202*** -0.070*** -0.102*** -0.249***
Std. error [0.021] [0.020] [0.024] [0.069]
Observations 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491
R2 0.663 0.421 0.639 0.606
Notes: Each column represents a separate regression; OLS estimates are population weighted. Robust standard errors -in brackets- are clustered by stratum and adjusted for survey design.
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service
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Table 13: Changes in expenditure shares by food group
Grain Meat Dairy Oil/fat Vegetable Fruit Sugar
Log wheat flour price
0.191*** -0.032 -0.019 -0.031 -0.028 -0.07 -0.012
Standard error [0.011] [0.009] [0.007] [0.004] [0.004] [0.007] [0.002]
Observations 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491
R^2 0.674 0.419 0.261 0.241 0.46 0.533 0.434
Table: Each Column represents a separate regression; dependent variable is the household expenditure share from the food group listed at top of column..
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service.
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Table 14: Changes in calorie shares by food groupGrain Meat Dairy Oilfat Vegetable Fruit Sugar
Log wheat flour price
0.042*** 0 -0.004 -0.017*** 0 -0.02*** -0.002
St. error [0.008] [0.002] [0.004] [0.004] [0.002] [0.003] [0.002]
Observations 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491
R^2 0.324 0.289 0.287 0.241 0.26 0.233 0.234
Table: Each Column represents a separate regression; dependent variable is the household calorie share from the food group listed at top of column. All control variables listed in table 4 are included in the regressions.
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service.
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Figure 13 : Map of Afghanistan & its RegionsFigure 13 : Map of Afghanistan & its Regions
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Figure 14: Food Security by Regions, Main Findings
Source: USDA, Economic Research Services
The prevalence of food insecurity is generally higher in mountains and plateaus of Afghanistan.
people residing in mountainous regions of Afghanistan experience much higher calorie and protein deficiency compared to those living in lowlands.
Similarly, the population in the plateaus also experience higher food insecurity outcomes vis-à-vis their counterparts who live in the plains.
The terrain characteristics affect food security outcomes by impacting access to markets, transportation costs, and livelihood opportunities.
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Figure 15: Major Faming Systems & Food Security by Terrain Type, % deficiency.
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Provision of relief ration Provision of relief ration to people who suffer to people who suffer from man-made and from man-made and natural disasters.natural disasters.
During 2006-2008, 21 During 2006-2008, 21 percent of percent of Government’s overall Government’s overall food aid.food aid.
Food is given to the people as incentive for their labor contribution in building or repairing productive community infrastructure such as roads, bridges, reservoirs and irrigation systems.
The projects are selected in consultation with the local communities..
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FFE aims to bridge nutritional gaps among children and promote school enrollment, particularly among girls, by providing school meals and take-home rations.
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FFT is designed to help the poor acquire vocational skills.
The ultimate objective of FFT is to improve economic and social prospects for vulnerable members of the community, particularly women.
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Table 9 : Number of Recipients/Beneficiaries by Program Activities (in, 000)
Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
GFD 1,138 765 1,240 1,400 1,800
Food for Work 271 642 859 4,400 1,500
Food for Education 1,972 2,203 2,228 2,800 1600
Food For Training 55 75 150 180 140
TB Patients 25 22 22 20 20
Source: WFP (2010)Source: WFP (2010)
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Source: FAO STATSource: FAO STAT
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Figure 17: Population of Afghanistan, (1990-12)-(2011-13)Figure 17: Population of Afghanistan, (1990-12)-(2011-13)
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Conclusions
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ReferencesD. S. ANNA, 2011, Wheat Flour Price Shocks and Household Food Security in Afghanistan, Economic Research Services, USDA.
H. MALLETA, 2004, Seasonal Changes in Wages and Food Prices in Afghanistan, Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock, Kabul.
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, Ministry of Economy and the World Bank, ‘Poverty and Food Security in Afghanistan: Analysis based on the National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment’ February 2012. Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock, ‘Agricultural Commodity Price Bulletin’ selected issues. Central Statistics Office (CSO), Afghanistan Statistical Yearbook, 2012.www.cso.gov.af Food and Agriculture Organization of The United Nations (2012). Statistics Division.http://faostat.fao.org/default.aspx World Food Programme (2008) Food Security Overview, http://www.wfp.org/country_brief/indexcountry.asp?country=004
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DiscussionDiscussionQuestionsQuestions
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