Food Security Challenge in the Context of Climate Change
Transcript of Food Security Challenge in the Context of Climate Change
Bruce Campbell, Director
CGIAR Program on Climate Change,
Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
Food Security Challenge in the Context of
Climate Change
Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and
Climate Change
• “Business as usual in our globally
interconnected food system will not
bring us food security and environmental
sustainability”
• “The window of opportunity to avert a
humanitarian, environmental and climate
crisis is rapidly closing”
Beddington et al. (2012) Science 335: 289-290 www.ccafs.cgiar.org/commission
In 15 years there will be another billion
people to feed
A billion people go hungry
Another billion suffer nutrient deficiencies
Another billion over-consume
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4 5 6 7 8 9 11
Wealth (log per capita GNP) IFPRI, FAO, ILRI: Livestock to 2020
10
Major shifts in diet as the world
gets wealthier
Meat consumption
(log per capita)
100% (+/- 11%) more food by 2050
Tilman et al 2011
Proc. National Academy Science
with current trajectories of
diets & populations
To 2090, taking 14
climate models
Four degree rise
Thornton et al. (2010) Proc. National Academy Science
>20% loss 5-20% loss No change 5-20% gain >20% gain
Length of growing period (%)
Length of growing season is likely to decline..
Food prices are likely to increase… %
price
incre
ase
20
10
-20
50
Nelson et al., 2010
Maize Rice Wheat
% p
rice
in
cre
ase
20
10
-20
50
Climate change will add
greatly to price increases…
Nelson et al., 2010 IFPRI
Maize Rice Wheat
Historical impacts on wheat (1980-2008)
% Yield impact
for wheat
Changes in growing season temperature
Lobell et al (2011)
China
India
US
Russia
France
Global
Weather catastrophes
Overall losses Insured losses
US$ billion (2010 values)
Source: Munich RE NatCatSERVICE
Vermeulen et al. 2012 Annual Review of Environment and Resources (in press)
19-29% global
GHGs from food
systems
48
23
15
16
11
2 6
China UK
686
99
48
59
40
18
393
Agriculture
Transport & packaging
Primary & secondary processing
Retail & catering
Domestic food management
Waste disposal
Fertilizer manufacture
Vermeulen et al. 2012 (UK data from Garnett 2011) Annual Review of Environment and Resources (in press)
80-86% of GHGs from food systems come from
agriculture
0,0
500,0
1000,0
1500,0
2000,0
2500,0
3000,0
3500,0
USA & Canada Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa China South and Southeast Asia
Other, largely burning
Rice cultivation
Manure management
Enteric fermentation
Agricultural soils
Indirect emissions
Vermeulen et al. 2012 Annual Review of Environment and Resources (in press)
Emissions by
agricultural activity
Rockström et al. (2009); Bennett et al. (in prep.)
Global
freshwater
use Change in land
use
Biodiversity
loss
Phosphorous
cycle
Nitrogen
cycle
Ocean
acidification
Climate
change
Safe
operating
space
Current
status
Role of
Agriculture
• Identify and develop pro-poor
adaptation and mitigation
practices, technologies and
policies for agriculture and food
systems.
• Support the inclusion of agricultural
issues in climate change policies,
and of climate issues in agricultural
policies, at all levels.
• Commit to partnerships, data
availability, cross-center
cooperation, and making an
impact from global to local levels.
The CCAFS Framework
Adapting Agriculture to
Climate Variability and Change
Technologies, practices, partnerships and
policies for:
1. Adaptation to Progressive Climate
Change
2. Adaptation through Managing
Climate Risk
3. Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation
Improved
Environmental
Health Improved
Rural
Livelihoods
Improved
Food
Security
Enhanced adaptive capacity
in agricultural, natural
resource management, and
food systems
4. Integration for Decision Making
• Linking Knowledge with Action
• Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis
and Planning
• Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis
Some examples from CCAFS in our
quest for solutions
1. Ensuring that the research is user driven
2. New approaches to partnership and
collaboration
3. Focusing on women farmers
4. Farms of the future
5. Breeding for 2030 climates
6. Scaling up climate information services
7. Measuring GHGs in smallholder systems
8. Incentives for smallholder mitigation
9. Working with global policy makers
10.Regional scenarios
1. User-driven agendas: East Africa
Regional Learning Partnership Platform launched in April,
2011
Participatory action research
across 5 sites
3 National workshops -
Setting policy and research
priorities
2. Partnership/collaboration: the baseline
•Household, village and organisational
•36 sites, 252 villages, with 5,040 households in 12 countries and 3 regions
•Better understanding of local and regional differences to guide selection of
best-bet technologies and institutional options
• Clarifies social differentiation of access to natural resources and
infrastructure through participatory interpretation of satellite imagery
•Formal baseline for future program assessment
http://ccafs.cgiar.org/resources/baseline-
surveys
Dataverse: http://dvn.iq.harvard.edu
• More than 20 partners
• Six CGIAR organisations
• Open access data six months after
field collection
Mo
nth
s o
f fo
od
sh
ort
ag
e p
er
yr
Rainfall, food shortages, enterprise diversity …
Rufino et al. (2012)
How far can “adaptation” go in such systems – when will
other livelihood strategies be needed under particular
scenarios?
Then, what are the implications for GHG emissions?
3. Focussing on women farmers
• Climate-related shocks have had much greater
negative impacts on women than men
• Women have less access to climate information than
men
• Women crucial for food security – when have more
power, access and earnings, then more income
allocated to food, child nutrition and education
http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/analogues/
Farms of the future The Analogue tool
4. Farms of the future
Run Analogues Protocol – Beora (Nepal) Farms of the future Journey to Beora’s plausible futures
Blog story: http://www.trust.org/alertnet/blogs/climate-conversations/finding-the-future-of-beora/
Changes in Beans Suitability
• Average global area of suitability for growing beans may be
reduced by 6.6% by 2020
• But wide range of change in suitability across regions.
5. Breeding for 2030 climates
• Breeding drought resistance into bean
– 3.9 million ha of current bean area more suitable
– 6.7 million ha currently not suitable would be
suitable
• Breeding heat tolerance into bean
– 7.2 million ha of current bean area more suitable
– Increase highly suitable areas by some 54%
Potential breeding strategies
http://www.agtrials
.org:8080/
20 crops
2483 trials
Agtrials: Assembling public data in a common portal
•Calibrates and validates crop models
•Indicates adaptation options: Genetic improvement, on-farm management, etc.
•Improves access to technology transfer options
• Climate information to
farmers in Mali
• National Met Service,
WMO, ACMAD
• Forecasts provided for
three‐days, ten‐days,
and seasonal (inc. crop
health...)
• Major increases in
yields for participating
farmers
6. Scaling up climate information services
(Kitale – Kenya Ag. C Project)
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50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
450 000
500 000
550 000
600 000
Trees - biomass Trees - SOC Residue management -
SOC
Composting - SOC
ABMS/ SALM Methodology
EX-ACT (project values)
EX-ACT (default values)
Cool Farm Tool
tCO2
Seebauer 2012
7. Measuring GHGs in smallholder systems
CP
Plot
Landscapes
Farming systems
Scale and boundaries
Linking to
yields and
food
security
Mixed production systems
Management
& activity data
Knowledge generation &
information exchange
ICRAF, ILRI, IRRI, FAO, University of Hohenheim, Global Research Alliance for Agricultural
Greenhouse Gasses
Measurement equipment
Developing a shared protocol for GHG
emissions
Geographic Databases
GHG & Ecosystem Service Markets
Inventories
Remote Sensing Data Models
Measurement Networks
Policy Assessments
Climate, food and farming
research network (CLIFF)
• Call for proposals
• PhD research grants on climate
change mitigation in smallholder
agriculture
e.g. Carbon market benefits (Action
research with 4 NGOs, E. Africa)
8. Incentives for smallholder
mitigation
Real benefits from yields, not selling C credits, only US$2-
10; mitigation is co-benefit
Women better able to benefit where contracts were signed
with small groups, did not require land ownership, trainings
targeted at women.
Farmers need suites of enabling conditions and larger
institutional frameworks to support start-up costs
•Bringing together 500+
policy-makers, farmers,
scientists and development
experts
•Reaching 600,000 through
social media
•Not a stand-alone event
9. Linking with global policy processes
Exploring interacting socio-economic and climate
uncertainties regarding food, environments and
livelihoods with regional policy makers, private sector,
civil society, media, researchers
Scenarios: alternate plausible futures to help
understand key uncertainties we need to deal with and
evaluate the feasibility of policies, strategies,
technologies to do with adaptation, risk management,
pro-poor mitigation
Qualitative: narratives, conceptual models, images,
videos
Quantitative: graphs, maps,
interactive models
10. Regional scenarios & visioning
Industrious Ants Herd of Zebra
Lone Leopards Sleeping Lions
+ Wide range of benefits for food security, environments and livelihoods - difficult international relations; costly battle with corruption, challenges of being competitive with crops and products aimed at domestic markets
+ Region reaches out to international markets: economic boom - Trade-off with food security and environment, not sustainable economically; dependency on service and industrial markets; new vehicles for corruption sap effectiveness
+ Visionary action by individual orgs, initiatives facilitated by governments - Winners and losers world, uncoordinated trade and shared resources, instability, selfishness, fallings out; corruption prevents coordination
+ Massive public mobilizations, international investments, informal trade, personal and community psychological resilience - No win-win, latent capacity and wasted opportunities, revolutions that lead nowhere. Leaders making money through crises.
Fragmented status quo
Rea
ctiv
e go
vern
ance
Pro
acti
ve g
ove
rnan
ce
Regional integration
Quantified for each scenario using IMPACT and GLOBIOM: • GDP • Yields, production costs, prices, trade
measures for crops and livestock • Area change for a range of arable land
types and livestock production systems • Forest and other non-agricultural land
cover change • Various indicators for quantity and
quality of water systems • Infrastructure change • Effects of IT developments • Indicators for livelihoods and social
capital
www.ccafs.cgiar.org/scenarios
Example: National sovereignty
fears holding back achievement of
a vision of a more integrated and
competitive East African
Community
Strategic futures: scenarios
‘Industrious Ants’ Scenario: • EA moves towards regional
political and economic integration
• State and non-state actors take a
proactive stance towards food security, environment and livelihoods
Cassava: Could be an important crop for adaptation – more productive under
rising temperatures and has unrivalled drought resistance. Under the ‘Ants’
scenario, cassava production costs decrease by 50% and yields increase
by 30% plus high demand - a “climate smart” crop, compared to scenario with
no regional integration and a reactive stance (‘sleeping lions’) – low
demand, and cassava functions as a food security crop
An example: cassava under one East African scenario
Broad context provided by the
regional scenarios
Impacts on key outcomes of
different adaptation options
Hybrids of systems dynamics,
mathematical programming,
agent-based models
Some development work needed:
moving towards a small
community of practice
Household & community-level modelling
Data collection protocol
• Climate
• Family structure
• Land management
• Livestock management
• Labour allocation
• Family’s dietary pattern
• Farm’s sales and expenses
• Mitigation practices
Impact-household
Rights & entitlements
Safety nets
Political voice Access to services
Economic opportunities
For food insecure people, need actions on
Food
availability
Adaptive capacity
Technology
Knowledge &
skills Governance
&
institutions
Income & assets
Access
to
information
Infrastructure
Social capital
1970 1990 2010 2010 2050
Reducing the demand
Brian Keating, 2010, pers comm.
Improving production
Avoiding food losses and waste
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Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change
Supply could go down if no action,
combined with climate change
Global
food
demand
(Peta
cal/day)
PhD Network (?) • Common topic:
– E.g. Institutional arrangements for enhancing
adaptive capacity
– E.g. Transforming food systems
• c. 30 PhD students from 20-30 institutions
(>50% developing country)
• Research grants (c. $5000) and logistical
support
• Networking possibilities (supervision, peer
support, min. 2 face-to-face meetings)
• Practical outcomes
• CCAFS sites