Food Security andThe “Bottom of the Pyramid”

Professor Paul PS TengSenior Fellow (Food Security)

S Rajaratnam School of International StudiesCentre for non-Traditional Security Studies

and Dean, Graduate Studies & Professional Learning

National Institute of Education

18 April 2011

Why is food a security issue?

Food Shortages

Food Contamination

Food Price Increases

Deterioration of Health

Deterioration of Nutrition

Loss of Life

Economic Instability

Political Instability

Civil Unrest

Social Instability

Food Hoarding

FoodInsecurity

Globalisation

Conflict

Climate Change

DRIVERSSYMPTOMSCAUSES

Poverty

Hunger

Riots, instability spread as food prices skyrocket

14 April, 2008

(CNN) -- Riots from Haiti to Bangladesh to Egypt over the soaring costs of basic foods have brought the issue to a boiling point and catapulted it to the forefront of the world's attention, the head of an agency focused on global development said Monday."This is the world's big story," said Jeffrey Sachs, director of Columbia University's Earth Institute."The finance ministers were in shock, almost in panic this weekend," he said on CNN's "American Morning," in a reference to top economic officials who gathered in Washington. "There are riots all over the world in the poor countries ... and, of course, our own poor are feeling it in the United States.“

World Bank President Robert Zoellick has said the surging costs could mean "seven lost years" in the fight against worldwide poverty.

What governments fear!

Date: Page last updated at 09:00 GMT, Thursday, 29 May 2008 10:00 UK

By David Loyn International development correspondent, BBC News

Peering just a few months ahead to estimate food prices has been a tough game recently.

Peering 10 years ahead might seem impossible, especially when some of the assumptions made for the new UN Food and Agriculture Organization report already look questionable.

For example, one key assumption made is that crude oil prices will peak at $104 a barrel by 2017, within variations along the way. The price is already well above that, and some reputable analysts are now predicting oil will go to $200 a barrel.

High oil prices push up costs for farmers in the developed world. Fertiliser needs oil for its manufacture, while shipping costs have risen substantially.

But it is the poorest in the world who face the bleakest future -800 million people who did not have enough to eat on a daily basis even before the recent huge rise in prices.

Long era of cheap food is over

Food Price Crisis

Source: The State of Food Insecurity in the World, FAO (2009).

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e, 2

006-

2008

Trends in World Hunger

Source: The State of Food Insecurity in the World, FAO (2009). Value for 2009 is a projection.

Where do the Hungry Live ?

Source: The State of Food Insecurity in the World, FAO (2009)..

Jeffrey Sachs. 2005. The end of Poverty. Penguin

• At present, 50% of the world’s population lives in cities –2008 was turning point

• By 2050, 70% will be urban (mostly in developing countries)

• Low-income urban dwellers spend between 40%-60% of their income on food per year

• 800 million people involved in urban agriculture and contribute to feeding urban residents; 200 million produce for the market; 150 million are full-time employees

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1960

1965

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1975

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1995

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2010

2015

2020

2025

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2035

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2045

2050

Pop

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(Bill

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Year

Urban

Rural

World Population, 1961 to 2050 (Urban vs Rural)

9 Billion by 2050

URBAN- Most food is purchased- Net buyers of staple foods- Higher consumption of meat,

dairy, fruits, vegetables, processed foods

- Wider variety of foods available- More vulnerable to changes in

the international markets- Supermarket chains and control

of access- Higher food prices have greater

adverse effects

RURAL- Most food is produced locally- Net producers of staple foods- Lower consumption of

meat, dairy, fruits, vegetables, processed foods

- Limited variety of foods available- Less connected to world markets- Wet markets, small traditional

retailers- Agriculture acts as a buffer

VS

What differentiates the urban environment from the rural with respect to agriculture production and food availability?

Why Urban Food Security versus Rural Food Security?

FoodProduction

and consumption

At source

FoodProduction

and consumption

Export ofsurplus

Role of public sector

Role of private sector

URBAN

RURAL

RURAL

URBAN

PERIURBAN

PERIURBAN

Who are the food producers?Most food is produced in rural areas!Most food producers are small farmers and fishers!Most food is eaten where it is produced!Urban dwellers depend on rural producers!

Contextualizing Asia

Asia has the largest number of small farmers and fisherfolks!

Most farming is done in rural areas and fishing in coastal zones

Average farm size is small in Asia compared to Europe and the Americas

To ensure food security in Asia is to ensure food security for both poor producers (mainly in rural areas) and poor consumers (mainly in urban areas)

Most small farmers and fishers belong to the “bottom of the pyramid”

Empowerment of small growers“Bottom of pyramid” phenomenonScience + Technology + Entrepreneurship

= Surplus food plus cash for livelihood

Linking food security to poverty reduction: Livelihood creation

Micro-FinanceMicro-Insurance

Farmers need to be entrepreneursto get out of the poverty trapby using modern science andtechnology to produce surplusesand add value to their produce

“Food Security exists when all people, at alltimes, have physical, social and economic accessto sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meetstheir dietary needs and food preferences for anactive and healthy life.”

(Food and Agriculture Organization, U.N.)

Security for Whom?IndividualFamily Unit

(Households)Communities

(Country)Regions

What is Food Security?

SufficiencySafetyEconomic AccessPhysical AccessNutrition

2.Access to Food

(Market Supply Chain)

1a. Availability (Primary Production)

Crops/Animals

1b.Availability(Food Supply)

Production, Imports Stockpiles

3. Access to Food(Income)

4. UtilitySafety/Quality/Nutritive Value

Demand for Food

Inputs

Labor Land Water

Sunshine

Fragility of Agro-ecosystemsClimate Change Competition for Land

Changing Demographics (e.g. fewer/ageing farmers)

Other Uses

Fish

Distribution

Biofuels

Animal FeedPoultry

Mammals

AquacultureCapture

Natural Ecosystems

Population IncreasesDiet DiversificationLifestyle Changes

Urbanization

Processing/Distribution Losses

Household Food

Security

Science/Technology

Urban Food Security

Trade

4 – Dimensional FoodSecurity Conceptual Model

• AFP NEWS BRIEFS LIST

MONDAY, JANUARY 26, 2009 - 16:40

FAO SAYS WORLD FOOD PRODUCTION MUST DOUBLE BY DANIEL SILVA

• Global food production, already under strain from the credit crunch, must double in the next four decades to head off mass hunger, the head of the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation said on Monday.

• Speaking at the start of a two-day international conference in Madrid, FAO director general Jacques Diouf said the global economic crisis was already undermining efforts to tackle food insecurity and the need would become more pressing in the years ahead.

• "We face the challenge now of not only ensuring food for the 973 million who are currently hungry, but also ensuring there is food for nine billion people in 2050. We will need to double global food production by 2050," Diouf said.“

Latest: 70% increase by 2050!

High input-throughput systems

Conventional, external inputsystems

Subsistence systems

Natural, undisturbedsystems

1: >30

1: 10-30

1: 1-5

1: 1

FeedingCapacity

SimplifiedTypology of agricultural systems

INVESTMENTS

High

Medium - High

Low

Low

Investment and productivity

• Most of world’s agricultural output (79%) is from high income countries

• Agriculture offers employment to 44% of world’s population, c 2.5 Billion.

• As percent of GDP: low income countries – 31%; middle income –12%; high income – 1-3%.

Who are the producers with surplus?

ASEAN

ASIA-PACIFIC

EUROPE & AMERICAS

Global Food Supply Chain

Conceptualization of the inter-relationships between Food Supply and Demand at regional and global levels --

Distribution

Food Security: geographic connectivity

Crop Item 2006/07 2009/10Corn (Maize) Global/Asia Production, Million M T 698.0 810.9/190.1

Global Exports, Million M T(% of global production)

84.4(12%)

88.8(11%)

Asian Imports, Million MT(% of Global Exports)

43.3(51%)

36.2(41%)

Rice (Milled) Global/Asia Production, Million M T 417.0 441.0/383.4

Global Exports, Million M T(% of global production)

29.0(7%)

30.1(7%)

Asian Imports, Million MT(% of Global Exports)

7.4(25%)

7.9(26%)

Wheat Global Production/Asia, Million M T 594.0 680.0/ 242.1

Global Exports, Million M T(% of global production)

110.0(19%)

134.0(19.8%)

Asian Imports, Million MT(% of Global Exports)

28.8(26%)

35.0(26%)

Soybean (For Meal) Global Production, Million M T 153.8 163.8

Global Exports, Million M T(% of global production)

54.6(35%)

55.3(34%)

Asian Imports, Million MT(% of Global Exports)

12.8(24%)

13.9(25%)

Urban and Peri-Urban Agriculture (UPA)

Urban agriculture: the growing of plants and the raising of animals within and around cities.

• Integrated into the urban economic and ecological system; urban agriculture is embedded in -and interacting with- the urban ecosystem.

• Provides complementary strategy to reduce urban poverty and food insecurity

• Enhances urban environmental management• Contributes to local economic development, poverty

alleviation and social inclusion of the urban poor, particularly women

• Saves energy (e.g. lower transport and storage costs)

• Responds to market demand

Building more Resilient Citiesthrough UPA

http://www.ruaf.org/node/512

Bioscience Enterprises in Asia

1. Hybrid Plant and Seed Varieties2. Tissue Culture3. BioFermentation4. BioFertilizers5. BioPesticides6. Mushroom culture as a bioscience enterprise7. BioFuels8. BioRemediation9. BioDetection – Diagnosing plant diseases and Detecting Genetically

Modified food10.Biotechnology Crops (Genetically Modified Plants)

Value chain

Creativity

Innovations

Enterprises

Value CreationValue additionValue captureValue preserve

Competitiveness

Science, Technology

Products, Processes

Increased market share

Blockbusters

The farmer as Entrepreneur

Rice and its extended value productsPlant part 1st Stage Product 2nd Stage Product 3rd Stage Product

Panicle (Grains)

Milled rice

Brown RiceHull (Husks)Embryo and/or Endosperm

Human food staple, FlourHuman food stapleFuel, Briquettes

Bran, Bran Oil

Alcoholic drinks, etc.Noodles, etc.

Silica-based productsTocotrienols, Vitamin EAntioxidants

Leaves Straw

Phytochemicals

Fuel, Paper, Medium for mushroom growingPurified compounds

Culms (Stems)

StrawPhytochemicals

As aboveAs above

Roots Straw

Linking food security to poverty reduction: Livelihood creation

Micro-Finance, Micro-Insurance

Improved livelihoods =Increased economic access to food

Threats to Food Security: Risks

Transitory/Transient/ Acute

Permanent/Chronic/”Normalized”

Food Insecurity

Natural CalamitiesPolicy ChangesUnseasonal Weather PatternsSupply DisruptionsPest Outbreaks

Low Investment in AgriculturePovertyDemographics/ HIVClimate ChangePolicy ChangesPest Crop LossesAlternative Uses of Biomass

Desecuritizing Actions

Emergency preparednessmeasures

Risk ManagementDiversification of supply

sources (includes stockpiles)Int’l consensus on biofuelsSocial and safety nets

Desecuritizing Actions

Investments in technologiesand infrastructure

Open & fair trading systemAgriculture as priority in

developmentPromotion of sustainable

agriculture & livelihoodPolicy interventions

Yield LossesIndica Rice: 3-6%Japonica Rice: 5-14%Glutinous Rice: 25-36%Upland Rice: 26-50%

Losses in intensive systems: rice blast disease

TRENDS WHICH IMPACT ON FOOD SECURITY

Mid to Long term• Demographics – numbers, shifts, age• Changes in demand for food –

Quantity and Qualitative• Investments in food entrepreneurship• Production and farmer-unfriendly policies• Climate and Natural Resource Base changes• Declining number of farmers

Immediate• Disruptions in supply• Input cost spiral• Alternative uses of biomass

State of Food Security in Asia

Is there a problem?

• 947 Million Asians live on less that US$ 1.25 per day (UN MDG Summit, 20-22 Sept 2010)

• Asia is home to 2/3rds of the world’s poor and hungry• Asia is home to the largest number of hungry and

malnourished (580 million) with over 40% in China and India alone.

• Destabilizing factors persist– Economic uncertainty, competition for land, – Rapid urbanization, an increasing population – Climate change, unseasonal weather patterns, – Failing water availability, energy security and – Resource scarcity, Degradation of the natural resource base

trends

New Farming land?Can Asia Learn from Brazil’s Agricultural Success? Over the last four decades, Brazil has transformed its agricultural sector to become the first tropical agricultural giant and the first to challenge the dominance of the world’s major food exporters. This paper examines the secrets of Brazil’s success and ponders whether Asia should try to emulate the Brazilian model to help achieve food security for its people and contribute to an increased level of self-sufficiency in the region.By Margarita Escaler and Paul Teng.

Coffee trees cultivated under irrigation in Brazil's cerrado farms. www.rsis.edu.sg/nts

Credit: Anderson Galvao

NTS Insight October 2010

The International Conference on Asian Food Security (ICAFS)(http://www.rsis.edu.sg/nts/article.asp?id=163)

About the Centre:

Date: 10 – 12 August 2011Venue: Grand Copthorne Waterfront Hotel Singapore.

The International Conference on Asia Food Security (ICAFS)

brings together stakeholders from government, non-governmental organisations, the business community, academic institutions and other interested parties

to explore the prevailing challenges and opportunities for promoting long-term food security in Asia.

ICAFS has secured the presence of leading experts and practitioners in the food security field to discuss issues ranging from urban-rural food interdependencies and small-scale agricultural progress to cutting-edge agro-technologies and advancements in food processing, distribution and market assessment.

This ensures that ICAFS will provide valuable information across a comprehensive set of food security topics.

(http://www.rsis.edu.sg/nts/article.asp?id=163)

References

• <http://www.rsis.edu.sg/NTS/resources/research_papers/MacArthur%20Working%20Paper_Paul_Teng_and_Margarita_Escaler.pdf> Working Paper.Food (In)Security in Urban Populations By Paul Teng and Margarita Escaler The food crisis at the end of the last decade and the resulting food riots that occurred in cities all over the world exposed the vulnerability and fragility of the current global food system and highlighted the increasing problem of urban food security. Urban households were among the hardest hit by the food and economic crises as they saw their purchasing power decline drastically. Though aggregate world food availability was relatively good during this period, access to that food by the urban poor had been severely compromised. This working paper aims to analyse the factors that influence urban food security and argues the case for why an urban focus will increasingly matter in the international discourse on food security. A truly “systems approach” will be needed to study and deal with the many inter-related factors and players in food security. Too often have professional communities maintained disciplinary barriers when addressing such complex problems.

• http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/Perspective/RSIS0922010.pdfCommentary. Facing Food Shortages: Urban Food Security in An Age of Constraints Abstract: Seventy per cent of the world’s population are expected to live in urban areas by 2050. Food production to feed this larger, more urban and richer population will have to be done in the face of changing consumption patterns, the impact of climate change and the growing scarcity of land and water. It is time that urban centres take charge to usher in a new era of “urban green revolution”.