FONASBA Buenos Aries Tanker Chartering Report October 2007.

FONASBAFONASBABuenos AriesBuenos Aries

Tanker Chartering ReportTanker Chartering Report

October 2007October 2007

Tanker MarketTanker MarketDeclineDecline

2005-20072005-2007 2006-2006-20072007

BDTIBDTI - 60%- 60% - 46%- 46%

BCTIBCTI - 61%- 61% -45%-45%

Baltic Dirty Tanker IndexBaltic Dirty Tanker IndexJanuary 2005-October 2007January 2005-October 2007

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Baltic Clean Tanker Index Baltic Clean Tanker Index January 2005-October 2007January 2005-October 2007

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Rotterdam I FO380 Bunker Prices

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J ul-05 Oct-05 J an-06 Apr-06 J ul-06 Oct-06 J an-07 Apr-07 J ul-07 Oct-07

$/to

nne


Bunker Prices in RotterdamBunker Prices in Rotterdam

Rose from $240 to $390 per tonneRose from $240 to $390 per tonne

Plus 62.5%Plus 62.5%


• Global Oil Demand up 0.8% yoyGlobal Oil Demand up 0.8% yoy

• Forecast +1.5m b/d 2007Forecast +1.5m b/d 2007

+2.2m b/d 2008 +2.2m b/d 2008

• Oil Price $80/bbl July 07Oil Price $80/bbl July 07


Mild winter in N hemisphereMild winter in N hemisphere

Benign hurricane season N AmericaBenign hurricane season N America

Decline of OPEC oil on waterDecline of OPEC oil on water

Refinery maintenanceRefinery maintenance


• China + 4.6% yoy driven byChina + 4.6% yoy driven by

Car ownership + 16% yoyCar ownership + 16% yoy

air travelair travel

constructionconstruction

agricultureagriculture

petrochemicalspetrochemicals

oil stocksoil stocks


Oil DemandOil Demand

IndiaIndia +5.6%+5.6%

North AmericaNorth America +1.7%+1.7%

JapanJapan -10.5%-10.5%

EuropeEurope -3.4% -3.4%


• Clean Tanker TradesClean Tanker Trades

Comparatively buoyantComparatively buoyant

Refinery problems in the Atlantic basin.Refinery problems in the Atlantic basin.

Nigeria and USA importing from EuropeNigeria and USA importing from Europe

Congestion in both discharge areasCongestion in both discharge areas

India increasingly a supplier to Europe India increasingly a supplier to Europe and Asiaand Asia


• Growth of tanker fleet 3.6% dwt in Growth of tanker fleet 3.6% dwt in first first

8 months of 20078 months of 2007

• Fleet removals started in an Fleet removals started in an interesting way over 30 single hull interesting way over 30 single hull VLCCs converting to FPSO or VLOCsVLCCs converting to FPSO or VLOCs

• Double Hull Fleet = 74% of existing Double Hull Fleet = 74% of existing fleetfleet


• LNG continues to grow + 11% y o yLNG continues to grow + 11% y o y

Korea Korea + 12.6%+ 12.6%

JapanJapan + 1.3%+ 1.3%

SpainSpain + 2.3 m t+ 2.3 m t

UKUK + 2.2 m t+ 2.2 m t

BelgiumBelgium + 1.2 m t+ 1.2 m t

Existing fleet 233 vsls + 11% y o yExisting fleet 233 vsls + 11% y o y


•Future influences (Short Term):Future influences (Short Term):

Alternative Alternative

Suppliers Suppliers

FuelsFuels

Response to Green Issues / Response to Green Issues / emissionsemissions


•Future influences (long term):Future influences (long term):

•15 years/+ end of production from 15 years/+ end of production from the largest fields found in last 40 yrs:the largest fields found in last 40 yrs:

North SeaNorth SeaAlaskaAlaskaSakhalinSakhalin


•Future influences (Long Term):Future influences (Long Term):

Current finds are smaller capacity Current finds are smaller capacity – indicating maintenance of high – indicating maintenance of high oil price oil price = $ ???= $ ???

or no return to low oil priceor no return to low oil price

= $ 20 = $ 20

TankerTanker MarketMarket

THE THE

ENDEND

BEGINS ?BEGINS ?

FONASBA Buenos Aries Tanker Chartering Report October 2007.

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