Following lives from birth and through the adult years Longitudinal Research on Education using the...
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following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Longitudinal Research on Education using the British
Cohort Studies
Alice Sullivan, Director British Cohort Study
Centre for Longitudinal Studies
CLS is an ESRC Resource Centre based at the Institute of Education
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Structure of presentation
• The British Cohort Studies• Examples of Research• Future plans
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Birth Cohort Studies
National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD)Those living in GB born in one week in 1946
National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD)Those living in GB born in one week in 1946
National Child Development Study (NCDS)All those living in GB born in one week in 1958
National Child Development Study (NCDS)All those living in GB born in one week in 1958
1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70)All those living in GB born in one week in 1970
1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70)All those living in GB born in one week in 1970
Millennium Cohort Study (MCS)All those born in selected areas of UK over 12 months
beginning September 2000 in England and Wales, and December 2000 in Scotland and Northern Ireland
Millennium Cohort Study (MCS)All those born in selected areas of UK over 12 months
beginning September 2000 in England and Wales, and December 2000 in Scotland and Northern Ireland
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
1946 Birth Cohort Study National Maternity Survey to investigate costs of
childbirth and quality of associated health care (16,500 births) after WW2
A sample of 5,362 of this original survey have been followed over time
21 contacts most recently at age 53 Continuously funded by MRC since 1962 Approximately 3,500 remain in the study
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
1958 Birth Cohort Study Representative sample of over 17,000 infants born in March 1958 Not initially planned as a longitudinal study Sample followed at ages 7, 11, 16, 23, 33, 42, 46, 50 (prospective study) Retrospective life history data collected at age 23, 33, 42, 46, 50 Rich data collected from parents, schools, and the respondents themselves.
For example work history partnership history fertility history housing history
Approximately 12,000 individuals are still participating Information on individuals can be linked from birth and childhood through
into adult life Now funded by ESRC with data collected every four years
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NCDS Follow-ups & information sources
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Hypothetical life history: for a member of the 1958 cohort
x
Born
19581st child 1984
Age 7 Age 42 Age 46Age 16 Age 23
Age 33
Gets married
Parental interest in school work
Free school meals
Mother’s smoking behaviour
Parental divorce
Maths and reading tests
Exam results
Job 1 Job 2 Job 3 (part time)
Age 50
1991 2000 20041981 20081965 1969 1974
Age 11
2nd child 1987
Voting behaviour
Psychological well being
Working hours preferences
Savings
Domestic division of labour
Union membership
Training and skills
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Imagine that you are now 60 years old...please write a few lines about the life you are leading (your interests, your home life, your health and well-being and any work you may be doing).
Cohort members’ views of the future…
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BCS70: 1970 Birth Cohort Study Representative sample of over 16,000 infants born in 1970 Sample followed at ages 5, 10, 16, 26, 30, 34, 38 Approximately 12,000 individuals are still participating Now funded by ESRC with data collected every four years Co-ordination with NCDS facilitates cross cohort
comparisons
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BCS70 Follow-ups & information sources
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Millennium Cohort Study
18, 818 babies. So far followed up at ages 3 and 5. Cohort born over 12 month period
Season of birth effects Spread workload of professional interviewers
Geographically clustered by electoral ward
Over-sampling of ethnic minorities. Better approach to issue of community & local services
Content multi-purpose & multidisciplinary but with greater emphasis on social rather than medical
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
MCS Follow-ups & information sources
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Objectives of MCS
To chart the initial conditions of the social, economic and health advantages and disadvantages facing new children in the new century and their consequences
To capture information for the future
To compare patterns of development with other cohorts
To collect information on previously neglected topics, such as father’s involvement and child care
To investigate the wider social ecology of the family, including community and services, splicing in geo-coded data
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Questions Addressed by Birth Cohort Data
How have trends over time changed? E.g. In educational attainment/ inequalities between groups.
How do life-course trajectories develop? E.g. Educational trajectories.
How do earlier events affect later outcomes? E.g. Returns to education.
What happens at key transition points? E.g. Transition to higher education, family formation.
What is the impact of changes in social and education policies? E.g. Change in school systems.
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Longitudinal Research Questions in Education 1
Assessing social trends over time Have educational inequalities increased or decreased
over time? Bynner, J. and Joshi, H. (2002) ‘Equality and
opportunity in education: evidence from the 1958 and 1970 birth cohort studies’, Oxford Review of Education, 28 (4): 405-425.
Comparison of two birth cohorts.
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Longitudinal Research Questions in Education 2
Assessing lifecourse trajectories How do educational inequalities emerge and develop
during the early years? Feinstein, L. (2003) ‘Inequality in early cognitive
development of British children in the 1970 cohort’, Economica, 70: 73-97.
Tracks development from 22 months to age 10.
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
The SEG gap in early years
High SES; low early rank
Low SES;low early rank
High SES;high early rank
Low SES; high early rank
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
22 28 34 40 46 52 58 64 70 76 82 88 94 100 106 112 118
Age in months
Av
era
ge
po
sit
ion
in
th
e d
istr
ibu
tio
n
Source: Feinstein (2003)
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Longitudinal Research Questions in Education 3
Assessing the effects of education on later outcomes in the labour market
How do qualifications effect womens’ later labour market experiences?
Elliott, J., Dale, A. and Egerton, M. (2001) ‘The influence of qualifications on women’s work histories, employment status and earnings at age 33’, European Sociological Review, 17 (2): 145-168.
Examines the impact of women’s qualifications and work histories on wages.
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Longitudinal Research Questions in Education 4
Assessing the impact of life events on later outcomes Do the negative ‘effects’ of teenage motherhood are
real or spurious Hobcraft, J. and Kiernan, K.E. (2001) Childhood
poverty, early motherhood and adult social exclusion. British Journal of Sociology 52 (3): 495-517.
Examines whether the negative effects of early childbearing can be explained by childhood precursors such as child poverty.
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Longitudinal Research Questions in Education 5
Assessing the impacts of poverty during the early years using MCS
http://www.cls.ioe.ac.uk/text.asp?section=00010001000500150021 Causes and consequences of disadvantage for young children in Britain and Northern Ireland (Sullivan, Joshi, Ketende, Obelenskaya, Cara).
Tracks inequalities at age 5 and then 7.
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Analytical strategy
1. Descriptive analysis
2. Regression (linear or logistic as appropriate) analyses for both UK and NI separately.
4 Nested models
1. NI, Poverty and child-specific controls
2. Social background controls
3. Neighbourhood characteristics
4. Other potential mediating and moderating factors
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BAS mean scores MCS3
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Education assessment score
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Behavioural (SDQ)
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Less than ‘excellent’ health
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Overweight
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Example of a research project using NCDS: The debate over single-sex schools Is there a real impact on academic attainment for girls
or boys? Success in later life? Are there effects on social outcomes – relationships
with the opposite sex, etc?
Exam attainment at 16+: competing hypotheses
• Traditional view – boys and girls distract one another in co-ed.
• ‘Progressive view’ (Dale) girls have a civilising influence on boys in co-ed, and girls are not harmed.
• Some feminists have argued that girls are disadvantaged in co-ed.
• Proponents of ‘different learning styles’ say boys and girls need to be taught differently.
• Recent arguments that boys are disadvantaged by ‘feminised’ co-ed schools.
Frequencies – 5+ O levels
Male Female Co-ed Single-sex Co-ed Single-sex
Count % Count % Count % Count % < 5 passes
3778 85.0% 876 63.3% 3521 85.8% 851 57.6%
5+ passes
667 15.0% 508 36.7% 583 14.2% 627 42.4%
Total 4445 100.0% 1384 100.0% 4104 100.0% 1478 100.0%
Broken down by school sector5+ O level passes
01020304050607080
%
Boys Co-ed
Boys school
Girls co-ed
Girls school
Divorce: Men
% Men Divorced or separated by age 42
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Co-ed Boys Co-ed Boys Co-ed Boys Co-ed Boys
Private Grammar Sec Mod Comprehensive
% Divorced or separated
Hourly Wages age 42: Women School at 16 School sex Mean
£ N
Co-ed 9.42 27 Private Girls’ school 11.89 151 Co-ed 10.18 137 Grammar & tech Girls’ school 11.37 280 Co-ed 6.74 507 Secondary mod Girls’ school 7.54 187 Co-ed 7.92 1662 Comprehensive Girls’ school 8.33 219 Co-ed 7.81 2333 Total Girls’ school 9.81 837
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Project findings
Sullivan, A., Joshi, H. and Leonard, D. (forthcoming) ‘Single-sex schooling and labour market outcomes’. Oxford Review of Education.
Sullivan, A., Joshi, H. and Leonard, D. 2010 ‘Single-sex Schooling and Academic Attainment at School and through the Lifecourse’. American Educational Research Journal 47(1) 6-36.
Sullivan, A. 2009. ‘Academic self-concept, gender and single-sex schooling’ British Educational Research Journal 35(2) 259-288.
following lives from birth and through the adult years www.cls.ioe.ac.uk
Future Plans
MCS and BCS70 will be in the field in 2012 NCDS will be in the field in 2013 We welcome external input into our consultative
processes Consultative conference: http://www.cls.ioe.ac.uk/even
ts.asp?section=000100010004&page=2&item=1042
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Website
www.cls.ioe.ac.ukPlease register for regular updates