Folke Günther [email protected] Holon Ecosystem Consultant Ruralisation Will ecology show a pathway...
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Transcript of Folke Günther [email protected] Holon Ecosystem Consultant Ruralisation Will ecology show a pathway...
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Ruralisation
Will ecology show a pathway to sustainability?
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Part I
The dont’s
Rules for sustainability
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Rules for sustainability
1.You can not be dependent on storages
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Why is that?
A society that is dependent on a storage will not survive longer than the storage
• Typical examples of storage dependency:– Fossil energy– Phosphorus
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Ultimately found
Used
Fossil energy
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Different utilization modes of remaining resources:
Rule: You can not use what is not found
A: The Bush/Cheney mode
(Same amount)
(Estimated amount)
B: Unprobable mode
(Estimated amount)
(Same amount)
C: Probable mode
(Estimated amount)
(Same amount)
Efforts to increase or delay the peak vill make the downsloap steeper
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Liquid fossil fuels, actual and forecasted production, the Peak
1% annual increase in demand
We
are
her
e
6,300 nuclearreactorsto fill the gap
2031:
520 new per year
IEA: 1.6%
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Other storages that support our society
Plant nutrients !
Why plant nutrients ?
Without plant nutrients, no food !
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
The constituents of an animal (or vegetable) body:HHOOCCNNSSPPNaNaKKCaCa……6464
PP
HHOOCCNNSS
NaNaKKCaCa……6464
With gaseous phases — can be transported by the air
Without gaseous phases — must be transported as solids or liquids
More common in the Earth crust than in the body
Nutrients
– phosphorus is the most important nutrient !
PP 10 times more common in the body than in the Earth crust
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Nutrients
Will energy price affect phosphorus
availability?
– phosphorus is the most important nutrientPP
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Extraction horizons of phosphorus
At higher energy price: ?? years
100 – 150 yearsAt current energy price:
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Will phosphorus availability constrain the
population?
This problem was encountered by the first terrestrial ecosystems, 400 million years ago
They found a solution:
Recycling of phosphorus!
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Ancient newspaper, found in the Devon –Carbon geosynclinal in SW England
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Part II
The must’s
Rules for sustainability
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
2.To survive, you must have a supportive function on your support system
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Cell
Assume you are a cell (subsystem) in a body (supersystem)
Body
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Cell
The cell receives a lot of free and beneficial services from the body
BodyA nice
temperature: 37°
Good pH: 7,4Sugar for nutrition
Oxygen
Waste removal sevices
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
To keep all these services, the cell (the subsystem) can only behave in
three fundamentally different ways towards the body (the supersystem)
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Cell
Body
+Positive influence
– Negative influence
±0 No influence at all1
23
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
The cell has a negative influence on its supersystem. It will, for example, develop a
cancer
Survival strategy 1
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Cell
Body
By that, the body will be less able to deliver its free services
--
As a survival strategy for the cell, it sucks
Either, the macrophages will find the cancer cell and destroy itOr, the body will die
Survival strategy 1: The subsystem has a negative influence on the supersystem
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
The cell is perfectly neutral towards its supersystem
It doesn’t cause any harm, neither it does anything that is
useful to the body
Survival strategy 2
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Cell
BodyThe capacity of the body to deliver its free services is not affected by the actions of the cell
As a survival strategy for the cell, it is, at least, risky!
The cell is invisible to the body
What will happen if there is a tidying-up drive ?
Survival strategy 2, no harm, no use
±0
The cell might be eliminated, but this will not affect the body
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
The cell does something (little) that makes it useful to the body
Survival strategy 3, better to be there
This makes it easier for the body to deliver services to the
cell
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Cell
BodyBy that, the body will have an increased ability to deliver its free services
+
This is the only reliable survival strategy for the cell
The cell fulfils some function that makes the body more able
Therefore, it is somewhat better for the body that the cell is there, than not
+
+
Survival strategy 3, better to be there
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
This goes for any
subsystem
Survival strategy 3, better to be there
For example humans in an ecosystem !
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
What is ’good’ for an ecosystem?
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Ecosystem dynamics
A crasch course
Interlude
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Ecosystem
Exergy consuming processes, ’life’
Ecosystems, like all self-organizing processes, thrive on energy with high exergy content
Sunlight with high exergy content
Low temperatureradiation with lowexergy content
The ’life’ processes consume exergy
The energy with consumed exergy content must be expelled, otherwise the system will ’choke’
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
The driving force is a corollary of the Second Law
This is reflected by the spontaneous change of ecosystem;
their maturation processes
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Ecosystem maturation
A v a i l a b l e s o l a r e x e r g y
Immature system• Low diversity• Annual plants• Competition• Parasitism• Nutrient leakage• Export• Fast change• Water export by drainage
Mature system• High diversity• Perennial plants• Co-operation• Mutualism• Nutrient circulation• On-site consumption• Slow change• Water export by evaporation
All these changes increase the exergy consumption capacity of the ecosystem
Mat
urat
ion
Mat
urat
ion
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
PO4
DNA
Urine
Consumption
Recycling
Reconstruction
The regenerative cycle, basic for living systemsecosystem level:
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
PO4
DNA
Urine
Consumption
Recycling
Reconstruction
The regenerative cycle at ecosystem level, summing up:
High exergy
Low exergy
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
This is typical for a natural ecosystem
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
In fossil fuel powered systems, the general ecosystem
principles are seldom enforced
…which leads to devastating faults
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
HHamperedamperedEEffluentffluentAAccumulationccumulationPProcessrocess
The HEAPHEAP trap
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
PO4 PO4
AgricultureAgriculturePO4
Food
Urine
PO4
Urine
PO4
PO4
Food
City
Mining industry
PO4 PO4
Long-range transportation makes recycling practically
impossible
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
FoodFood
PO4 PO4PO4 PO4
PO4
PO4PO4PO4
City
PO4PO4
The HEAP-effect, in a saturated system
When saturated, the system leaks at the same rate as it is
loaded
With effiecient waste water treatment
methods (P precipitation),
this state is attained faster
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Linear flows
HEAP
HEAP
A linear flow from sources to seaPO4
Energy demanding and unsustainable
Fossil fuel demand
Resource depletion
Fossil fuel demand
Fossil fuel demand
Fossil fuel demand
Fossil fuel demand
Fossil fuel demandResource depletion
Resource depletion
Fossil fuel demand
Fossil fuel demand
Fossil fuel demand
PO4
Feed
PO4 Food
PO4
Food
Urine
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
The HEAP effectThe HEAP effect-- diffuse nutrient leakage
• Is an inevitable effect of urban agglomerations
• Is an inevitable effect of deficient nutrent recycling
• Can be solved by a changed settlement infrastructure– (or an extremenly expensive transportation system)
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Balanced agriculture with its inhabitants
─ a possible model for a nutrient recycling settlement
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Balanced agriculture: Animals are fed with
plants growing from their manure ─ about 80%
circulation of nutrients .. 3-4 kg of the phosphorus is exported as food products
.. these nutrients must be returned if the
system is to be sustainable
The 3-4 kg amounts to the P content of the excrements from 5 persons
With source-separating toilets,
these nutrients can be recycled
PO4
Feed Urine
Food
Urine
PO4
= 0,2 ha/pers
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Energy use of an everyday family
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Assume: Four persons living in a house
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
House Car Food
En
erg
y u
se,
kWh
/yea
r
Potential for efficiency increase
about 8 000 kWh/yr
Super-isolated house
Conventional house (according to ’Byggnorm 80’)
Increasing the energy efficiency of a settlement
17 000 kWh/yr
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Assume: Four persons living in a house
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
House Car Food
En
erg
y u
se,
kWh
/yea
r
about 8 000 kWh/yr
Heavy car (10-12 l/100 km)
Light car (5-7 l/100 km)
about 6 000 kWh/yr
Potential for efficiency increase
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
House Car Food
En
erg
y u
se,
kWh
/yea
r
Super-isolated house Light car
(5-7 l/100 km)about 8 000 kWh/yr
about 6 000 kWh/yr
Metabolic needs:About 4000 kWh/yr
Food system (in)efficiency: About 0.1
Energy needed for food: About 40 000 kWh/yr
Assume 4 000 kWhfor local management
Saving potential forlocal production and management of food:About 32 000 kWh/yrStrongly associated with vulnerability to high energy prices
Four persons, applying energy conservation
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
We are in troubleCheap energy will soon be a
memory of forlorn times
1. Whithout cheap energy, phosphorus need to be recycled
2. Whithout cheap energy, supply lines need to be short
3. Whithout cheap energy, we have to rely on ecosystem services
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Therefore, we need a lifeboat
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
The eco-unit, a small population maintained by a permaculture
agricultureBalanced agriculture
Providing most of the human foodand all of the animal fodder
Area: 50 ha for 200 inhabitants
• High diversity• Perennial plants• Co-operation• Nutrient circulation• On-site consumption
•Nutrient reclaim•Landscape diversity•Predator habitat•Lee – planting•Biomass production
Open ditches
Nutrients from the settlement is recycled to agricultural land
Balanced agriculture,aimed at the
support of thelocal population
Small population,about 200,
supported by the
agriculture
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
The eco-unit
Biological greywater treatment plant (wetpark)Clean water is returned to
the households
• High diversity• Perennial plants• Co-operation• Mutualism• Nutrient circulation• On-site consumption• Water export by evaporation
Feed
PO4FoodPO4
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
The eco-units might work as lifeboats
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
# The rules are:You can imagine the most ridiculous thingsBut you have to render a statement of the effects
# A scenario is an imagination made by a scientist
The ruralisation scenario
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
The ruralisation scenario – start point
In this scenario, the following is assumed:
4. They decide that, instead of building new houses on the same place as the old ones were torn down, they will build eco-units in the periphery of the town.
At start point, the centre of the municipality has a population of 33 000The periphery: 3 000 1. The city is inhabited by decision-makers who have the
capacity to make far-sighted and strategic decisions
3. Furthermore, they understand that the city is not static, but dynamic. Old houses are torn down and new are built. (The average life-time for a house is supposed to be 60 years, which gives the city a
rate of change of 1,6%)
2. They have the same knowledge of limiting resources, ecology and the rules for long-term survival as you.
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Ruralisation – after 12 years
The town center: 24 000The periphery : 12 000
Groups of four Eco-unitsEach group is inhabited by 800 people
Local parks replacing the old houses
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Ruralisation – after 25 years
The town : 12 000The periphery : 24 000
Reversed ditching:Underground streams are brought to the surfaceCleaner water
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Ruralisation – after 50 years
The endpoint of the ruralisation process: The municipality : 3 000The periphery : 36 000
Area with 5,600 inhabitants in eco-unitsPopulation density closing to 500/km2
• High diversity• Perennial plants• Co-operation• Mutualism• Nutrient circulation• On-site consumption• Slow change• Water export by evaporationBy changing into a more
resilient and less fuel dependent state, the ecological maturity of the area is considerably increased
May be, the human impact on this area has changed from a parasitic to a supportive type
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
In this calculation, it is not possible to account for sudden, non-linear energy price changes that might occur after the Peak .
Therefore, continuous, steady changes of energy price are assumed.
The economy of ruralisation
Several different energy price change scenarios were calculated. However, only one will be demonstated:
5% annual increase in price for industrial energy, and 2% for renewable energy sources are assumed
All the other scenarios showed the same general trend
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
In the scenarios, energy cost for a town with a constant population was compared with the same population in ruralisation
The economy of ruralisation
Only energy costs were accounted for, like:
•food production and delivery
•housing
•sanitation and water purification
Other costs, like mobility changes and changed mechanization in agriculture, were not accounted for
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
The economy of ruralisation
The energy costs of a rural person was assumed to be less than those of an urban due to:
• Less energy demand for food production and delivery
• Less energy demand in the sanitation system
• Larger amount of renewable energy sources
The energy costs of a rural person was assumed to be higher than those of an urban due to:
• Larger amount of single family houses
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Assumed annual energy cost increase:Industrial energy: 5%, Renewable energy: 2%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
Years from now
WW
T m
aint
enan
ce a
nd e
nerg
y co
st, M
SE
K/y
ear
Ruralisation Unchanged town
Annual expenditure difference 2 000 MSEK
The economy of ruralisation
Ruralisation
Unchanged town2,000,000,000 SEK difference
Initial price difference: Very small
Increased building costs equals diminished food transport R$ 1,000,000,000
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Total energy investment: about 40.000 kWh / 4 pers
Energy delivered to household: about 4.000 kWh/ 4 p.
The energy economy of food production
Energy invested in agriculture: about 4.000 kWh/ 4 p.
Energy invested by middlemen: about 36.000 kWh/ 4 p.
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
0 kr
15 000 kr
30 000 kr
60 000 kr Annual consumer cost for food (four person Swedish family)60.000 SEK (about R$ 30.000)
Payment to producer, less than 25%
Trade, distribution and processingabout 75% of the total price
Producer cost (fuel, interests etc.)80% of producer payment
Producer salary, about 3.000 SEK (5% of consumer cost)
The economy of food production
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Assume a group of consumers subscribe for food from a local farmer
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
They will drive the industry out of the market by paying the double industrial price (half of the consumer price)
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
0
15 000
30 000
45 000
60 000
Expenses
Salary
Distribution and trade
Traditional system
Because of the increased food diversity produced, the expenses are assumed to increase with 50%
..but the remaining is the salary, which will increase from 3.000 to
12.000, 400%
The consumer cost for the food has decreased by 50%
13.000
18.000
60.000
30.000
12.000
3.000
Folke Gü[email protected]
Holon Ecosystem Consultantwww.holon.se/folke/
Let’s hope that the consumers will usetheir saved money to invest in the agriculture…
Cheaper food
Saved money