XBRL - North America William J. L. Swirsky. XBRL - North America.
Focus on North America, February 2014 · 2017. 4. 11. · North America Asia Europe North America...
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© 2014 BP p.l.c. Focus on North America, February 2014 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats
Transcript of Focus on North America, February 2014 · 2017. 4. 11. · North America Asia Europe North America...
© 2014 BP p.l.c.
Focus on North America, February 2014
bp.com/energyoutlook#BPstats
© 2014 BP p.l.c.
Regional energy trends
Fuel by fuel
Carbon emissions and the fuel mix
Contents
Energy Outlook 2035 – Focus on North America
© 2014 BP p.l.c.
North American energy use rises slowly and peaks in the US
Billion toe
Consumption by region
0
1
2
3
1965 2000 2035
Canada &Mexico
US
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035
Canada &Mexico
US
Billion toe
Ten year increments by region
Energy Outlook 2035 – Focus on North America
© 2014 BP p.l.c.
Falling transport demand offset by ‘other’ (including power)
Consumption by sector
Billion toe
0
1
2
3
1965 2000 2035
Electricity share
Transport
Billion toe
Ten year increments by sector
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035
Industry
Other
TransportOther
Industry
Energy Outlook 2035 – Focus on North America
© 2014 BP p.l.c.
Decline in oil demand, increases for natural gas & renewables
Consumption by fuel
Billion toe
0
1
2
3
1965 2000 2035
Oil
Gas
Coal
HydroNuclear
Renew.*
*Includes biofuels
Ten year increments by fuel
-0.3
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.8
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035
Renew.*HydroNuclearCoalGasOil
Billion toe
Energy Outlook 2035 – Focus on North America
© 2014 BP p.l.c.
North American output growth led by gas, oil & renewables
OECD
Non-OECD
Billion toe
New energy formsProduction by region
Oil
Coal
Gas
Billion toe
0
1
2
3
4
1990 2005 2020 2035
Canada &Mexico
US
0%
25%
50%
0
1
2
1990 2005 2020 2035
Renewables in power
Shale gas
Tight oil, oil sands,biofuels
% of total (RHS)
Energy Outlook 2035 – Focus on North America
© 2014 BP p.l.c.
Shares of primary energy
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1965 2000 2035
Oil
Coal
Gas
HydroNuclear Renewables*
*Includes biofuels
Energy decouples from economic growth and fuel shares shift
1
4
7
10
4
13
22
31
40
1965 2000 2035
GDP and energy
Trillion $2012 Billion toe
GDP
Energy (RHS)
Energy Outlook 2035 – Focus on North America
© 2014 BP p.l.c.
The power sector takes an increasing share of energy use
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1965 2000 2035
Inputs to power as a share of total primary energy
Primary inputs to North American power
Coal
Gas
Oil
Hydro
Nuclear
Renew.
30%
40%
50%
1990 2005 2020 2035
WorldNorth America
Energy Outlook 2035 – Focus on North America
© 2014 BP p.l.c.
-4
-2
0
2
4
1990 2005 2020 2035
FSU
Africa
S & CAmericaMiddleEastNorthAmericaAsia
Europe-4
-2
0
2
4
1990 2005 2020 2035
North America switches from net importer to net exporter
Primary energy net balances
Billion toe
-0.5
-0.3
0.0
0.3
0.5
2005 2015 2025 2035
Coal
Gas
Oil
Billion toe
Regional fossil fuel balances
Energy Outlook 2035 – Focus on North America
© 2014 BP p.l.c.
Regional energy trends
Fuel by fuel
Carbon emissions and the fuel mix
Energy Outlook 2035 – Focus on North America
© 2014 BP p.l.c.
Oil: Falling transport demand and rising unconventionals
Mb/d
Liquids demand by sector
0
10
20
30
1990 2005 2020 2035
Can/MexOther
US Other
Can/MexTransport
US Transport
0
10
20
30
1990 2005 2020 2035
Biofuels
US tight oil
Mexico
Oil sands
Other Canada
Other US
Liquids supply by source
Mb/d
Energy Outlook 2035 – Focus on North America
© 2014 BP p.l.c.
Oil trade continues to shift from West to East
Mb/d
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1995 2015 2035
Net importsTight oilOther supply
Mb/d
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1995 2015 2035
Net importsTight oilOther supply
US China
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
1995 2015 2035
Middle East FSUEurope Asia PacificAfrica S&C AmericaN America
Regional imbalances
Mb/d
Energy Outlook 2035 – Focus on North America
© 2014 BP p.l.c.
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1980 1991 2002 2013 2024 2035
Electricity
Gas
Coal
Biofuels
Oil:
Road
Non-road
Regional transport demand declines driven by fuel economy
Transport demand by fuel
Billion toe
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Mtoe
Five year increments by fuel
Energy Outlook 2035 – Focus on North America
© 2014 BP p.l.c.
Policy and technology enable efficiency improvements
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Plug-ins incl.BEVs
Full hybrid
Mild hybrid
Conventionalincludingstop-start
Vehicles sales by type
0
20
40
60
80
100
1975 1995 2015 2035
EUUS light vehiclesChina
Fuel economy of new cars
Miles per gallon*
*New European Driving Cycle Basis
Energy Outlook 2035 – Focus on North America
© 2014 BP p.l.c.
US natural gas use rises in all sectors; shale dominates supply
Bcf/d
Gas demand by sector
0
30
60
90
120
1990 2005 2020 2035
Can/Mex
US Other *
US Industry
US Power
0
30
60
90
120
1990 2005 2020 2035
Can/Mex Shale
US Shale
US Other
Can/Mex Other
Gas supply by source
Bcf/d
Energy Outlook 2035 – Focus on North America
*Includes transport
© 2014 BP p.l.c.
Different regional prospects for unconventional gas and trade
Bcf/d ChinaBcf/d North America Bcf/d Europe
Sources of gas supply by region
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1995 2015 2035-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1995 2015 2035-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1995 2015 2035
Net pipeline importNet LNG importShale gasOther unconventionalConventional
Energy Outlook 2035 – Focus on North America
© 2014 BP p.l.c.
US oil and gas supply
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
1970 1983 1996 2009 2022 2035
Billion toe
Gas
The US shale revolution: An example of market adjustment
Oil
0%
15%
30%
45%
1965 2000 2035
Gas share of US sector demand
Transport
Industry
Power
Energy Outlook 2035 – Focus on North America
© 2014 BP p.l.c.
North American coal demand declines; renewables expand
Billion toe
Coal demand by sector
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1990 2005 2020 2035
Can/Mex
US Other
US Power
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1990 2005 2020 2035
Renewables
Biofuels
Hydro
Nuclear
Billion toe
Non-fossil fuel demand
Energy Outlook 2035 – Focus on North America
© 2014 BP p.l.c.
Regional energy trends
Fuel by fuel
Carbon emissions and the fuel mix
Energy Outlook 2035 – Focus on North America
© 2014 BP p.l.c.
CO2: Emissions from energy rise globally, fall in North America
Billion tonnes CO2
Emissions by region
0
9
18
27
36
45
1965 2000 2035
OECD
Non-OECD
IEA 450 Scenario
North America
Tonnes CO2
Emissions per capita
0
5
10
15
20
25
1965 2000 2035
China
US
India
EU
World
Energy Outlook 2035 – Focus on North America
© 2014 BP p.l.c.
0%
30%
60%
90%
1990 2035
Coal
Gas
1990 2035 1990 20351990 2035 1990 2035
Share of power sector fuel consumption
North America EU China Other non-OECD Asia
Power sector is the main driver of regional fuel mix changes
1990 2035 1990 2035 1990 2035
Energy Outlook 2035 – Focus on North America
© 2014 BP p.l.c.
Efficiency, not fuel mix, restrains North American emissions
Billion tonnes CO2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Emissions growth 2012 to 2035
GDP growth effect
Projected decline
Energy intensity
Fuel mix
Index: 1990 = 100
100
200
300
1990 2005 2020 2035
CO2
Energy
GDP
GDP, energy and emissions
Energy Outlook 2035 – Focus on North America
© 2014 BP p.l.c.
Conclusion
Sufficient and available?
− Yes – new energy sources and efficiency improvements
− North America leads the way
Secure and reliable?
− Mixed – improving for North America, a concern for others
Sustainable?
− Room for improvement, even with lower North American emissions
Meeting the global/North American energy challenge
Energy Outlook 2035 – Focus on North America
