FMI dispersion modelling systems...2005/06/16 · FMI dispersion modelling systems Air Quality...
Transcript of FMI dispersion modelling systems...2005/06/16 · FMI dispersion modelling systems Air Quality...
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FMI dispersion modellingsystems
Air Quality Research
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ECMWFHIRLAMAtlantic
HIRLAMNorth-Europe
HIRLAMLINUX
Weather prediction models
Dispersion models -long-range, regional
Dispersion and effects models – urban, local
MATCH
BUOYANT meso, micro, fires
SILAM LRT, meso, radioactivity
MATCH (SMHI) LRT, meso
Modelling system - FMI
MATCH
ESCAPE, chemical accidents
OSPM (NERI), streetcanyon
MATCH
UDM-FMI, urban
CAR-FMI, roadside
HILATAR LRT, meso
MONO32 (U Helsinki, Stadia) aerosol processes
EXPAND (FMI, YTV) population exposure
Process models
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Regional and large-scale models
• SILAM (Sofiev et al., submitted)– Regional; Lagrangian; PM, ~500 radioactive nuclides, pollen,
probability• MATCH (SMHI) (Robertson, et al., 1999)
– Regional; Eulerian & Lagrangian; SOx, NOx, NHx, O3, VOC, PM
• HILATAR (Hongisto et al, 2004)– Regional-to-hemispheric; Eulerian; SOx, NOx, NHx O3 (crude),
PM, aerosol-based and long-living toxic metals and organics• DMAT
– Regional-to-hemispheric; Eulerian; SOx, NOx, NHx O3 (crude), PM, aerosol-based and long-living toxic metals and organics
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Meso-to-regional modelling system SILAM
Control unit
Dispersion interface
Lagrangeanpollution
cloud
Euleriandatabuffer
Emissioncomposer
Control flow
Processing
Interface
Data storage
Data flow
Dispersiondynamics
AreaBomb
Pointemission
Dispersionphysics &chemistry
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Evaluation of SILAM against data– ETEX experiment, – ENSEMBLE & NKS model inter-comparisons, – mid-term PM deposition from Estonia (on-going)
On-going or planned applications– emergency applications– PM transport over Europe and Finland– biomass emission and transport (pollen)– biomass burning (forest fires)– data assimilation, inverse studies (source
apportionment)– dispersion and deposition of PM from Estonian power
plants
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Oletetun onnettomuustilanteen simulaatio SILAM mallilla (vasen kuva),verrattuna Ruotsin, Norjan, Tanskan ja Englannin ilmatieteen laitosten mallien vastaaviin ennusteisiin (oikea kuva).
SILAMSILAMThreshold level = 10-3
Bq/m3
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PM 2.5 from European and Finnish sources, mean 2000
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Alcaline dust from Estonian power plants
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Inverse problem solution with SILAM
European Tracer Experiment ETEX-1. Left panel: observations [ng m-3]; right panel: probability density for the source location [m-2]
True source place
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BUO-FMI –malli (Dispersion from Strongly Buoyant Sources – Finnish Meteorological Institute)
• Arvioi paloissa syntyvien savukaasujen jahiukkasten leviämistä.• Liitetty savukaasujen nousulisää kuvaava virtausmalli.• Tuloksina saadaan mm. pitoisuudet kartalla• Voitaisiin käyttää yhdessä myös SILAM:in kanssa.
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Scope of the BUO-FMI model
• local scale (~ 20 - 30 km)• continuous, steady-state release• homogeneous terrain• no wet deposition
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Laskentaohjelmistokemikaalionnettomuuksien seurausten
arvioimiseksi
ESCAPE
An Expert System for Consequence Analysis using a Personal Computer
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Akrylonitriili Fosgeeni PentaaniAkryylihappo Freon 12 PropaaniAmmoniakki Heksaani PropyleenioksidiAsetoni Hiilidisulfidi RikkidioksidiAsetonitriili Hiilitetrakloridi RikkivetyBentseeni Isobutaani RikkitrioksidiBromi Kloori TolueeniButaani Kloorivety VetyfluoridiButadieeni Kumeeni VetysyanidiEtaani Metaani VinyylikloridiEtyleenioksidi Metanoli
ESCAPE –ohjelmisto sisältää fysikaalis-kemiallisetominaisuudet seuraaville aineille (32 kpl)
Käyttäjä voi lisätä aineita verrattain helpostiohjelmiston ainetietokantaan (CHEMIC-malli).
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Example results of the Windows 95 ESCAPE application: gas plume formed in a conceived release of liquified chlorine from a ruptured pipe (map (©) Karttakeskus).
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volatile droplets + gas
u_
transport of the cloud
entrainment of air
gravity slumping
The model AERCLOUD
• Describes the nonequilibrium thermodynamics of a multicomponent aerosol cloud
• Includes a detailed mathematical description of the mass and heat transfer processes from the droplets into the gas
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Atmospheric Dispersion of Chemical Warfare Agents in
Accidental Releases from Warehouse Fires
(MATINE)
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Seven Declared CWStorage Sites in Russia
Source: Russian Federation, Conception: Destruction of Chemical Armament (draft), 1994, p. 5
Storage site Percentageof CW stock
VX Sarin Soman Yperite Lewisite Yperite/lewisitemixture
Phosgene
Pochep, Bryansk oblast
18.8 x x x
Maradikovsky, Kirov oblast
17.4 x x x x
Leonidovka, Penza oblast
17.2 x x x
Shuchye, Kurgan oblast
13.6 x x x x
Kizner, Udmurtia Republic
14.2 x x x x
Kambarka, Udmurtia Republic
15.9 x
Gorny, Saratov oblast
2.9 x x x