Floodgates or Turnstiles? Post-EU enlargement migration flows to (and from) the UK

8/14/2019 Floodgates or Turnstiles? Post-EU enlargement migration flows to (and from) the UK

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WWW.IPPR.ORG

Floodgatesor

turnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUKbyNaomiPollard,MariaLatorreandDhananjayanSriskandarajah

April2008

ippr2008

InstituteforPublicPolicyResearchChallengingideas Changingpolicy


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ippr|FloodgatesorTurnstiles?Post-EUenlargementmigrationflowsto(andfrom)theUK2

Aboutippr ........................................................................................................................................... 3

Aboutthisreport ................................................................................................................................ 3

Abouttheauthors................................................................................................................................ 3

Acknowledgements............................................................................................................................. 3

Noteonthedata ................................................................................................................................ 4

Acronymsandglossary ....................................................................................................................... 4

Executivesummary ............................................................................................................................. 5

1.Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 7

2.Methodology.................................................................................................................................... 8

3.Background:joiningtheEU.......................................................................................................... 13

4.Thescaleofpost-enlargementmigration..................................................................................... 16

5.Thedemographicprofileofpost-enlargementmigrants.............................................................. 24

6.Thespatialprofileofpost-enlargementmigration ....................................................................... 28

7.Thesocio-economicprofileofpost-enlargementmigrants.......................................................... 30

8.Migrationpatterns ......................................................................................................................... 39

9.MigrantsmotivationsforcomingtotheUK................................................................................ 41

10.MigrantsexperiencesoftheUK ................................................................................................. 46

11.Futuremigrationflows................................................................................................................ 48

12.Conclusion .................................................................................................................................. 54

References......................................................................................................................................... 57

AppendixA.WRSregistrationsbyregionofemployer2004-2007 ................................................. 61

AppendixB.WRSregistrationsandestimatedcurrentA8stockbylocalauthority ........................ 62

Contents


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TheInstituteforPublicPolicyResearch(ippr)istheUKsleadingprogressivethinktank,producing

cutting-edgeresearchandinnovativepolicyideasforajust,democraticandsustainableworld.

Since1988,wehavebeenattheforefrontofprogressivedebateandpolicymakingintheUK.Throughourindependentresearchandanalysiswedefinenewagendasforchangeandprovidepractical

solutionstochallengesacrossthefullrangeofpublicpolicyissues.

WithofficesinbothLondonandNewcastle,weensureouroutlookisasbroad-basedaspossible,

whileourinternationalandmigrationteamsandclimatechangeprogrammeextendourpartnerships

andinfluencebeyondtheUK,givingusatrulyworld-classreputationforhighqualityresearch.

ippr,30-32SouthamptonStreet,LondonWC2E7RA.Tel:+44(0)2074706100E:[email protected]

www.ippr.org.RegisteredCharityNo.800065

ThispaperwasfirstpublishedinApril2008.ippr2008

Aboutippr

AbouttheauthorsNaomiPollard isaresearchfellowatippr.SheleadstheMigration,EqualitiesandCitizenshipTeams

surveyandqualitativeresearch.BeforejoiningipprNaomiworkedatIpsosMORIsSocialResearchInstitute,whereshemanagedpublicopinionresearchprojectsonbehalfofabroadrangeofpublic

sectorbodies.

MariaLatorre isaresearchassistantatippr.Shehasexperienceinabroadrangeofquantitative

methods,econometricanalysisandusinglargedatabases.MariahasworkedwiththeColombian

governmentandwithresearchcentresfocusedontheeconomicdevelopmentofthirdworldcountries,

particularlyinLatinAmerica.

DhananjayanSriskandarajahisdirectorofresearchstrategyatippr,wherehehasworkedsince2004.

Healsooverseestheinstitutesworkonasylum,migration,integrationanddiversity.Dannyhas

writtenextensivelyonmigrationissues,particularlypost-enlargementflows,andisaregular

commentatorinthemedia.

AcknowledgementsThereportincludesdatafromasurveyofmigrantswhohadreturnedfromtheUKtoPolandundertaken

byipprinpartnershipwiththeInstituteofPublicAffairs,Warsaw(www.isp.org.pl/?ln=eng).Wewould

liketothankJustynaFrelakattheInstituteofPublicAffairsandMichalWenzatCBOSfortheirhelp

indesigningandimplementingthesurvey.

Wearealsogratefulfortheadviceandinputofipprcolleaguesinproducingthisreport,particularly

JillRutter,HowardReedandJaideepShah.GeorginaKyriacoucopyeditedandformattedthereport.

Weareparticularlygratefultothesurveyrespondentsandinterviewees,whogavetheirtimetohelp

uswiththisresearch.

Wewouldalsoliketoacknowledgethoseorganisationsthathavesupportedtheresearchthatinforms

ipprsEconomicsofMigration project,ofwhichthisreportisanoutput:BusinessforNewEurope,

AboutthisreportThisreportupdatesandsupersedestwopreviousipprpublicationsonEUenlargementandmigration:

onepublishedinFebruary2004lookingaheadtomigrationimplicationsofthe2004roundofEU

enlargement(Sriskandarajah2004)andanotheronthemigrationimplicationsofRomanianand

BulgarianaccessionpublishedinApril2006(DrewandSriskandarajah2006).Astimeandresources

allow,wehopetofurtherupdatethisreportinthefuture.


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CommissionforRuralCommunities,CompassGroupPLC,FCOMigrationFund,HomeOffice,and

TradesUnionCongress,aswellastheUKForeignandCommonwealthOfficesMigrationFund,who

supportedtheipprprojectThe EmigrationofImmigrants.Apollconductedforthatprojectisdrawn

oninthisreport.

TheviewsexpressedinthisreportarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheDirectorsorTrusteesofippr,orthoseoftheprojectfunders.

Abbreviationsandglossary

A8 TheeightCentralandEasternEuropeancountriesthatjoinedtheEuropean

UnioninMay2004(Poland,CzechRepublic,Estonia,Hungary,Latvia,

Lithuania,SlovakiaandSlovenia)

A2 BulgariaandRomania,whichjoinedtheEuropeanUnioninJanuary2007

EEA EuropeanEconomicArea,afreetradeareamadeupofthe27EUmember

statesplusIceland,LiechtensteinandNorway

EU EuropeanUnion

IPS InternationalPassengerSurvey

LFS LabourForceSurvey

Newaccession TheA8andA2memberstatesoftheEU

states

NI NationalInsurance

NiNo NationalInsuranceNumber

ONS OfficeforNationalStatistics

Post-enlargement MigrantstotheUKfromcountriesaddedtotheEUbyenlargement

migrants

SAWS SeasonalAgriculturalWorkersScheme

WRS WorkerRegistrationScheme

Noteonthedata

MaterialfromtheLabourForceSurveyisCrownCopyrightandhasbeenmadeavailablebyNational

StatisticsthroughtheUKDataArchiveandhasbeenusedwithpermission.NeitherNationalStatistics

northeDataArchivebearsanyresponsibilityfortheanalysisorinterpretationsofthedatareported

here.


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TomarkthefourthanniversaryoftheenlargementoftheEuropeanUnion(EU)in2004,ipprhas

undertakenamajorstudythataimstoprovideasdefinitiveapictureofpost-enlargementmigration

flowstoandfromtheUKaspossible.ThisreportpresentsfreshevidenceonthescaleandnatureofmigrationfromtheeightnewCentralandEasternEuropeancountriesthatjoinedtheEUin2004(the

so-calledA8countries)and,toalesserextent,fromRomaniaandBulgaria,whichjoinedin2007(the

so-calledA2).

Thereportisbasedonnewanalysisofarangeofexistingsourcesofdataonmigrationflows(for

example,administrativedataonregisteredworkersandnationalinsurancenumbers,thequarterly

LabourForceSurvey,carriedoutbytheOfficeforNationalStatistics).Italsodrawsontheresultsofa

speciallycommissionedsurvey,believedtobethefirstofitskind,ofPoleswhohaverecentlyreturned

fromtheUKtotheirhomecountry.ThereportalsodrawsonqualitativeinterviewswithPolish

migrantslivingintheUK.

Mainfindings

Ourresearchfindsthatthepatternsofpost-enlargementmigrationareverydifferentfromthoseof

significantwavesofmigrationtoBritaininthepast.Incontrasttopreviousmigrants,itisfinancially

andlogisticallypossibleformigrantsfromthenewEUmemberstatestocometotheUKona

temporaryorseasonalbasis,andtoregularlyvisithomewhilelivinginBritain.Oneintenofthose

returnedPolesinthesurveyhadbeenintheUKforthreemonthsorlongeronmorethanone

occasioninrecentyears.Thefactthatpost-enlargementmigrantsarealreadymovingbackhome

supportsthehypothesisfrequentlymadeinthemigrationliteraturethatlowerbarrierstomobilitylead

tolesspermanentimmigrationinthelongterm.

Someofipprskeyfindingsinclude:

WeestimatethatthecurrentpopulationofA8andA2nationalsresidentintheUKis665,000,anincreaseofaround550,000sinceearly2004.

Polishnationals,byfarthebiggestnationalitywithinthisgroup,arenowthesinglelargestforeignnationalgroupresidentintheUK,upfrom13thlargestgroupinearly2004.

Weestimatethatatotalofaround1millionA8migrantworkershavearrivedintheUKsince2004,butthataroundhalfofthisgrouphavealreadylefttheUK.

ThenumberofA8migrantsarrivingintheUKhasstartedtoslowsubstantially,with17percentfewerWRSregistrationsinthesecondhalfof2007thanduringthesameperiodof2006.We

estimatethatsome30,000fewermigrantsarrivedinthesecondhalfof2007asdidinthe

secondhalfof2006.

ThevastmajorityofPolishmigrantscometotheUKforeconomicreasons,butleavebecausetheymisshomeorwanttobewiththeirfriendsandfamilyinPoland.

Post-enlargementmigrationisnotapurelyeconomicphenomenon:manycometotheUKtolearnEnglish,startabusiness,liveinamoresociallyliberalsocietyorsimplytobroadentheir

horizons.

Three-quartersofallA8andA2nationalsresidentintheUKin2007wereaged16-39yearsold.

At84percent,theemploymentrateamongpost-enlargementmigrantsisamongthehighestofallimmigrantgroups,andisninepercentagepointshigherthantheUK-bornaverage.

Veryfewpost-enlargementmigrantsclaimstatebenefits(only2.4percentofthoseregisteringforNationalInsurancenumbersbetweenMay2004andDecember2007claimedbenefits).

A8andA2nationalsworkonaveragefourhourslongerperweekthanUK-bornworkers(46hourscomparedwith42hours).

Executivesummary


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ThenumberofdoctorsfromA8/A2countriesregisteredwiththeGeneralMedicalCouncilhasincreasedby25percentinthelasttwoyears.

InDecember2003some40,000passengersflewbetweenthreeBritishairportsandWarsawandKrakowinPoland.ByDecember2007,itwaspossibletoflyfrom22BritishairportstotenPolish

cities,andpassengernumbersbetweenthesedestinationsthatmonthwerealmost385,000.

Thedistributionofpost-enlargementmigrantsaroundtheUKdifferssignificantlyfromthatofotherimmigrantgroups.A8/A2nationalsofworkingagearehalfaslikelytoliveinLondonas

otherimmigrantsonaverage,andhavegonetopartsofthecountrythathavepreviously

attractedveryfewmigrants.

Some10millionpeopleflewbetweentheUKandtheA8/A2countriesin2007,athree-foldincreaseintrafficsincepre-enlargement,reflectingtheincreaseinmigration,tourismandtrade

inbothdirections.

70percentofPoleswhohavereturnedfromtheUKhadfoundtheUKbetterorthesameastheyhadexpected,yettwothirdsofthereturneesthoughtthattheymadetherightdecisionto

returntoPoland.

Before2004,PolishbeerswerenotwidelyavailableintheUK.Todaysome44millionpintsofLechandTyskie,Polandstwoleadingbrands,aresoldannuallyintheUK.

Lessmigration,morereturns

WebelievethatthefollowingfactorswillleadtofewermigrantsfromthenewEUmemberstates

arrivingintheUKandmoreofthosewhoareintheUKreturninghomeinthecomingmonthsand

years:

Developmentinsendingcountries AstheeconomicconditionsinthenewmemberstatesimproveincomparisontothoseintheUK,economicmotivationsformigratingarelikelyto

weaken.FourintenofthereturnedPolishmigrantswesurveyedthinkthatbetteremployment

prospectsinPolandwouldencouragePoleslivingintheUKtoreturntoPolandforgood.

DiversiontoalternativedestinationsAsotherEUmemberstatesloosentheirrestrictionsonA8andA2workers,itislikelythatincreasingnumbersofmigrantswillchoosetoliveand

workinthesecountriesratherthantheUK.

Demographicpatternsinsendingcountries Asaconsequenceofdecliningbirthratesinthemid1980s,thepooloflikelymigrantstotheUKisgettingsmallerandissettocontinueto

dosointhecomingyears.

Devaluationofthepoundsterling ThepoundhasalreadyfallenbyaroundaquarterrelativetothePolishZlotysinceearly2004.Furtherdevaluationwillnarrowthegapbetween

potentialearningsinBritainandPoland,reducingtheincentivefornewmigrantstocometothe

UKandincreasingtheincentiveforthoseintheUKtogohomeorelsewhere.

Questioningkeyassumptions

Muchofthediscussionaboutthescaleofpost-enlargementmigrationassumesthatmostofthose

whohavearrivedarestillhere,thatmorewillcome,andthatmanywillstaypermanently.Thisreport

suggeststhatallthreeoftheseassumptionsarequestionableandthatinsteadarrivalsfromthenew

memberstateswillstarttofallconsistentlywithinthenextfewyears,withthetotalstockremaining

constantorfallingasmigrantsreturnhomeorgoelsewhere.


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MigrationtotheUKfromthecountriesthathaverecentlyjoinedtheEuropeanUnion(EU)(theso-

calledA8andA2countries)isoneofthemostimportantsocialandeconomicphenomenashaping

theUKtoday.Thismovementofpeoplehasdramaticallychangedthescale,compositionandcharacteristicsofimmigrationtotheUK.Yet,despiteitsprominenceinpublicdebates,thereis

relativelylittlecomprehensivedataonthescaleandnature,letaloneimpact,ofthatmigration.Wedo

notyetknowforcertainhowmanyEasternEuropeansareintheUK,whattheydo,howlongtheyare

hereforandwholeaves.

Purposeofthisreport

TomarkthefourthanniversaryoftheEUenlargementin2004,ipprhasundertakenamajorstudy

thataimstofillthisinformationgap.Thisreportisanattempttouseexistingdatatoitsfullestin

ordertopiecetogetherasdefinitiveapictureofpost-enlargementmigrationflowsaspossible.Itdoes

thisbyanalysingexistingsourcesofdataonmigrationflowstoandfromtheUK,drawingonthe

resultsofaspeciallycommissionedsurveyofPolishmigrantswhohavereturnedtotheirhomecountry

fromtheUK,anddrawingonqualitativeinterviewswithPolishmigrantslivingintheUK.Theresearch

takesadvantageofthefactthat,althoughoftenincompleteinitscoverage,thereisnowagrowing

literatureandconsiderabledatasetonvariousaspectsofpost-enlargementmigration.

Thisreportpresents:

FreshestimatesofthegrossflowsofA8andA2migrantsintoandoutoftheUKoverthelastfouryears(since2004)

EstimatesofthecurrentstockofthesemigrantsintheUK

Analysisofthesocio-economicanddemographiccharacteristicsofA8andA2migrantsintheUK

Projectionsofwhatislikelytohappeninthefuture.Wepresentthisinformationwithmanycaveatsandqualificationsaboutthequalityandcoverageof

thedata.Seethemethodologysectionbelowforanexplanationofsomeofthecomplexitiesand

limitationsofexistingdata.Giventheselimitations,thisreportisasdefinitiveaswebelieveitcan

reasonablybe;wedonotclaimitisthe definitivepicture.

Wehopethatourfindingswillhelppolicymakers,journalists,andotherresearchersunderstandthe

natureofrecentmigrationflows,bycreatingahandyreferencepointforthoseinterestedinpost-

enlargementmigration.

Whoarewetermingmigrants?

Weacknowledgethat,formanypeople,themovementofpeoplearoundtheEUisabouttheUnions

citizensexercisingtheirrighttomobility,andshouldthereforebetreateddifferentlyfrommigrationof

peoplewhocomefromcountriesoutsidetheEU.Whilethisisanimportantdistinction,forthe

purposesofthisreportwelabelthosewhomovefromthenewmemberstatestotheUKasmigrants.

Asdiscussedinthemethodologysectionbelow,weusevariousdefinitionsofwhatamigrantis,

includingthosebornoutsidetheUK,andthosewhodonotholdBritishnationality,asappropriatein

eachcontext.

Structureofthereport

Inthefollowingsectionweoutlineourmethodology,especiallyintermsofthequantitativedata

analysis.Afterthatcomesabriefbackgroundtotheenlargementprocessandtherightsthatnew

memberstatenationalsenjoyintermsofmobilityandwork.Then,thesubstantialsectionsofthis

reportlookateachmajoraspectofpost-enlargementflows,includingthescaleandnatureofrecentmigration.Thereportconcludesbylookingaheadtofuturemigrationpatternsandthedriverslikelyto

shapethem.

1.Introduction


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Thisresearchisinformedbythreemaincomponents:

Quantitativeanalysisofexistingsurveyandadministrativedata

AspeciallycommissionedsurveyofPolishmigrantstotheUKwhohavenowreturnedtoPoland

QualitativeinterviewswithPolishmigrantslivinginLondon.

Quantitativeanalysis

InordertoestimatethenumberofA8andA2migrantscurrentlylivingintheUK(thestock),we

needtounderstandhowmanypeoplewereinthecountrypriorto1May2004,howmanyhave

arrivedsincethen(theinflow)andhowmanypeoplehaveleft(theoutflow).

TheUKdoesnotcurrentlycountindividualsinandoutofitsbordersassomeothercountriesdo.The

availabledataonthenumberofmigrantsfromnewaccessionstateswhowereinthecountrybefore

2004,andthosewhohavearrivedorleftsince,hasseverelimitations.Wethereforedrawonfourmain

sourcesofquantitativedatatobuildascompleteapictureaspossible:

i)Census2001

Censusdatacollectedin2001precedesthisnewwaveofmigration,renderingprojectionsbasedon

thesefiguresoflittlevalue.Itdoeshoweverprovideusefulbackgroundinformationaboutpre-

accessionstocksofA8andA2nationalsintheUK.

ii)InternationalPassengerSurvey

TheOfficeforNationalStatisticsInternationalPassengerSurvey(IPS)collectsannualdatafrom

passengersenteringandleavingtheUK.TheIPSisanexcellentsourceofinformationonaggregate

flowsinandoutoftheUKbutithasseverallimitationsforthepurposesofthisreport:

ThesurveydefinesamigrantassomeonewhointendstostayintheUKforatleastayear(overlookingthemajorityofpost-enlargementmigrantswhointendtostayforlessthanayear).

Therelativelysmallsamplesizeofmigrants(goingonthedefinitionabove)intheIPSlimitsitsusefulnessasatoolforestimatingmigrationtoorfromparticularcountriesorregions.Further,

IPSdataisonlyavailableattheaggregatedlevelofEuropeanUnionA8nationals,withno

breakdownsbycountryavailable.

InformationonA8nationalsisonlyavailablefrom2004,anddataonA2nationalsisnotyetavailableasadifferentcategorybutinthegroupofotherforeignnationals.

Therefore,broadassessmentsofthestocks,flowsofA8andA2migrantsintheUKcanonlybemade

bytriangulatingadministrativeandsurveydatadrawnfromaccessionmonitoringstatisticscollatedby

theHomeOffice,andtheLabourForceSurvey(LFS).Thesedatasourcesalsoprovideinformation

aboutthedemographic,socio-economicandspatialcharacteristicsofA8andA2migrations.

iii)Accessionmonitoringstatistics

TheHomeOffice,inpartnershipwithanumberofothergovernmentdepartments,publishes

accessionmonitoringstatisticsrelatingtoA8andA2migrantseveryquarter.

ThesereportsprovideinformationaboutthenumberofA8andA2nationalsregisteringtoworkinthe

UK,theirdemographiccharacteristics,economicactivityandgeographicallocation.ForA8nationals

thisinformationisgatheredviatheWorkerRegistrationScheme(WRS)andforA2nationalsby

MigrantWorkerCardsandRegistrationCertificates.Informationaboutbothgroupsofmigrantsisalso

gatheredthroughtheissuingofNationalInsuranceNumbers(NiNo)fortaxandbenefitclaiming

purposes.

Accessionmonitoringstatisticshaveanumberoflimitationsasdatasources:

Theyfailtocapturepre-accessionflowsandarethereforelimitedintheirusefulnessasalongitudinaldatasource.

2.Methodology


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TheyrelyonvoluntaryregistrationsandsignificantnumbersofmigrantsareexemptfromhavingtoregisterontheWRSandA2workpermitschemes,mostnotablythosewhoareself-employed

arenotrequiredtobeWRSregistered.

TheydonotcaptureanydataaboutstudentswhoarenotworkingoraboutdependantsofworkerswhodonothavetheirownNiNo.

iv)TheLabourForceSurvey

Animportantelementofthemethodologyforthisreportreliesonnewandinnovativewaysof

analysingLabourForceSurvey(LFS)data.

TheLFS,carriedoutbytheOfficeforNationalStatistics,isacomprehensivequarterlysurveyof

householdsthataimstoprovideinformationonthelabourmarket.Whileitdoesnotcollectdataon

immigrationstatus,itdoesincludequestionsoncountryofbirthandnationality.TheLFSprovides

dataonaconsistentsetofvariablesoverlongtimeframesandishighlyregardedbecauseituses

internationallyagreedconceptsanddefinitions.

Weneedtobearinmind,though,thatwhereastheCensusisacountofthetotalpopulation,theLFS

isbasedonpopulationsamples,andisthereforesubjecttosamplingerror.Thestandarderrorforan

estimateof500,000people,forinstance,is13,800andthe95percentconfidenceintervalis+/-

27,100(seeOfficeforNationalStatistics2003),meaningthatwecanbe95percentsurethatthe

actualfigureiswithin27,100of500,000.Theseerrorsbecomeproportionallylargerthesmallerthe

estimate.Furthermore,therearealsolikelytobenon-samplingerrors,causedbyfactorssuchas

potentialrespondentsunwillingnesstotakepartinthesurveyorrespondentsansweringquestions

inaccurately.Responseratestendtobelowerforminoritygroupsandinthecaseofmigrantworkers

therecanbeunder-reportingbecausenon-privatecommunalaccommodation,inwhichmigrant

workershaveahighpropensitytolive,isnotcoveredbythesurvey.

InordertoanalysespecificcharacteristicsofA8andA2nationalsforwhichthesamplesizeistoo

smalltobestatisticallyrobust,wehaveannuallyappendedfourquartersofLFSdatatogether.This

increasesthetotalsamplesizeandthereforeallowsformoredetailedanalysisofsocio-economic

characteristicsthanispossibleusingasinglequarterofdata,andensuresthattheresultsare

representative.SinceeachhouseholdintheLFSissurveyedinfivesuccessivequarters,wehaveused

thethiswvvariabletoensurethateachhouseholdisonlyincludedonceintheappendeddataset.

Whenselectingwaves,thereshouldbeapreferenceforwaves1and5,sincethesearethewavesin

whichdataonincomeiscollected.

TheselectionprocesswehaveusedforeveryyearisrepresentedinFigure1.Representationsof

individualrespondentsarecolour-codedinthediagram.Forexample,arespondentinwave1in2007

quarter(Q)1isshadedgrey.Hisorherprogressthroughthesurveywavescanbetracedbyfollowing

thegreyshadingdiagonallythroughtowave4in2007Q4,onequarterbeforehisorherparticipation

comestoanend.Theobservationsusedintheanalysisareasterisked,andrepresentthemaximum

numberofwavesthatcanbeincludedwithoutanyonerespondentbeingrepresentedmorethanonce

inthesample.

Figure1.Labour

ForceSurveywave

selection

2007

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

1* 1* 1* 1*

2 2 2 2

3 3 3 3

4 4 4 4Surveywave

5* 5* 5* 5* *Includedinthesample


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Itisimportanttobearinmindthatthenumbersobtainedfromtheappendeddataarenotestimates

ofthecurrentpopulationintheUK.ThesampleofeachquarteroftheLFSisdesignedtoprovide

estimatesoftheUKpopulationaswellastheireconomicandsociodemographiccharacteristics.

However,sinceintheappendeddatasomeofthewavesaredroppedofftoavoiddoublecounting,

theresultingsamplerepresentsagroupofobservationsthatcannotbecomparedwiththequarterly

samplesoftheLFS.Forthisreason,thefiguresbasedonaggregateddataareanalysedinproportions

ratherthannumbers.Thesefiguresallowustoprovidedistributionswithinagroupandnottotal

numbers,takingintoaccountthedifferencesbetweensamples.

SincetheLFSisasample-basedsurveyratherthanapopulationcensus,datafromitshouldbe

treatedasestimatessubjecttotheerrorsoutlinedabove.WehaveroundedthedataintheLFS-based

tablesinthisreport,usuallytothenearestonepercentorthousand,butthefiguresremainestimates

ratherthandefinitive.Ifitwerepossibletocollectactualdataontheentirepopulation,ratherthanvia

asample,therankingsinsomeofthetables,particularlythosewhereseveralgroupshaveveryclose

values,maydiffersomewhatfromthosepresentedhere.

SurveyofreturnedPolishmigrants

AspartofthisresearchipprandtheInstituteforPublicAffairs,WarsawcommissionedthePolish

researchagencyMillwardBrownSMG/KRCtoundertakeasurveyofPoleslivinginPolandwhohad

livedintheUKforatleastthreemonthssince1998.Interviewersconducted370face-to-face

interviewsbetween28Februaryand12March2008withmigrantswhohadreturnedtotheirhome

country.

Asnowballquotasamplingmethodwasusedwherebyinterviewerswereaskedtofindinterviewees

fittingallthespecifiedquotaswithinthegeographicalareaoftheirsamplepoint.Quotaswereplaced

onrespondentsage,gender,levelofqualificationandwhentheylastlivedintheUK.Quotaswere

basedontheprofile,asestablishedbypreviousresearchbyCBOS(CentrumBadaniaOpiniiSpoecznej

orPublicOpinionResearchCentre),ofmigrantswhohavereturnedtoPolandfromworkingintheEU

since1998.

ThesetandachievedquotasareoutlinedinTable1below.

Interviewstookplacein23locationsacrossPoland,asshowninTable2(nextpage).

AlthoughthesurveysampledreturnedmigrantstoPolandonly,wearguethattheresultscanbe

treatedasindicativeofthebehavioursandattitudesofA8migrantsasagroup.Polesarebyfarthe

largestnationalgroupofpost-enlargementmigrants,makingup66percentofthosewhohave

registeredontheWRSsinceMay2004,andtheyarenotsubstantiallydifferentfromotherA8

migrantsintermsofdemographicorsocio-economicprofile.

WehaveusedthesurveyfindingstoestimatethelikelyextenttowhichWRSregistrations

underestimatethenumberofA8migrantswhohavecometotheUK,andbasedoncomparisonsof

thisfigurewithLFSdata,thelikelynumberofA8migrantswhohavearrivedinandleftthecountry

sinceMay2004(seesection4below).

Table1.Quotasandachievedinterviews

Male Female

Age18-34 Age35+ Age18-34 Age35+

Vocationaleducation Quota 28 28 14 14

Achieved 28 26 15 15

Secondaryeducation Quota 56 56 37 37


Highereducation Quota 28 28 23 23



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Theseestimationsareballparkfigures,andarebasedonthefollowingassumptions:

ThattheprofileandmigratorybehaviourofA8migrantsasawholeisnotsignificantlydifferentfromthatofPolishmigrants

ThattheproportionofPolishmigrantsnotregisteredontheWRSissimilartotheproportionofA8migrantsnotregisteredontheWRS

ThatalthoughtheLFShasanumberoflimitationsasatoolforestimatingnumbersofmigrantsintheUK,thefiguresdiscussedaresufficientlylargetobeusedasthebasisofballpark

estimations.

Allsurveyfindingsaregiventothenearestpercentagepointandwherethesamplesizeislessthan

50,thesamplesize(n)isalsogiven.

Qualitativemethodology

Weconductedtenin-depthinterviewsofanhourinlengthwithPolishmigrantslivinginLondon,

manyofwhomhadarrivedsince2004.Thefindingsoftheseinterviewsarereferredtothroughoutthe

report.

Table2.Geographicalbreakdownofinterviews

Area Numberofinterviewsachieved

Biaystok 16

Bydgoszcz 13

Czstochowa 13

Gdask 20

Katowice 18

Kalisz 18

Koszalin 18

Lublin 16

d 18

Olsztyn 14

Pozna 17

Radom 15

Dbica/Tarnw 10

Siedlce 17

Wocawek 10

GorzwWielkopolski 16

Warszawa 24

Opole 22

Bolkw/JeleniaGra 14

Wrocaw 15

Szczecin 8Krakw 21

Pia/Toru 18

Total 371


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Definitions

Ingeneral,werefertomigrantsasthosewhohavespentaminimumofthreemonthslivingintheUK.

However,asoutlinedabove,theIPSusesadifferentdefinition,definingmigrantsasthosewhointend

toliveintheUKforatleastayear.OuranalysisofLFSdataisbasedonnationalsofthenewmember

states,unlessstatedthatitisbasedonrespondentsborninthosecountries(whomaynowholdBritishcitizenship).ItshouldbenotedthatLFSdoesnotaccountfordualnationality,anduses

whicheversinglenationalitytherespondentgives.

WerefertomigrantswhohaveleftPoland,theCzechRepublic,Estonia,Hungary,Latvia,Lithuania,

SlovakiaandSloveniasince1May2004asA8migrants,andtothosewhohaveleftRomaniaand

Bulgariasince1January2007asA2migrants.WerefertoA8andA2migrantscollectivelyaspost-

enlargementmigrantsorpost-accessionmigrantsormigrantsfromthenewEUmemberstates.


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FollowingthedeclarationoftheEuropeanCouncilinCopenhagen(1993)whichallowedEuropean

statestoapplyforEUmembership,tenformerlycommunistcountriesinCentralandEasternEurope

Bulgaria,theCzechRepublic,Estonia,Hungary,Latvia,Lithuania,Poland,Romania,SlovakiaandSlovenia,aswellastheMediterraneanislandsofCyprusandMalta,didsoin1995.TheEuropean

Councilstarteditsnegotiationsandassessmentswiththisgroupin1999.Inordertoqualifyfor

membership,EUapplicantcountriesmustmeetaseriesofpoliticalandsocio-economiccriteria,the

so-calledCopenhagenCriteria.

TheA8countriesoftheCzechRepublic,Estonia,Hungary,Latvia,Lithuania,Poland,Slovakia,

Slovenia,aswellasCyprusandMalta,metthecriteriaintimetojointheEUon1May2004.Bulgaria

andRomaniadidnotqualifyformembershipintimeforthe2004accession,butmettheCopenhagen

CriteriainordertobecometheA2countries,joiningtheEUon1January2007.

Freemovement

Accessionnationalshavethesamerightsoffreemovementbetweencountriesasnationalsofthepre-enlargementEU15.EUnationalscanenterothermemberstateswithoutavisaforaperiodofupto

sixmonthsonproductionofvalididentificationandcanresideinanothermemberstateformorethan

sixmonthsiftheyareatleastoneofthefollowing:

Employed

Self-employed

Inpossessionofsufficientresourcesandhealthinsurancetoensurethattheydonotseekstateorsocialbenefits

Astudent

Afamilymember(includingnon-EUcitizenspouses)ofanEUcitizenwhofallsintooneoftheabovecategories.

Leadinguptothe2004enlargement,therewaswidespreadconcernaroundtheimpactsfrom

migrationoftheextensionofEUmembershiptoanunprecedentedtennewstatesatonce.Fearsofa

massexodusofaccessionnationalsintothelabourmarketsofexistingEUmemberscompetingfor

jobs,deflatingwagesanddisruptingsocialcohesionwerewhippedupandintensifiedbysometimes

vitriolicpresscoverage.InresponsetothisconcerntheTreatyofAccessionallowedfortheexisting

EU15toimposetransitionalrestrictionsonthefreemovementofworkersfromallthenewmember

stateswiththeexceptionofCyprusandMaltaforamaximumofsevenyears(EuropeanCommission

2003).Inotherwords,whilenewmemberstatenationalswerefreetotraveltoexistingmemberstates

tobeself-employedorstudyandsoforth,theyfacedpotentialrestrictionstotheirabilitytoworkas

employees.ThesameapproachwasadoptedinrelationtoRomaniaandBulgariasaccessionin2007.ForbothA8andA2migrants,thetransitionalperiodlastsforsevenyearsandisdividedintothree

phasesaccordingtoa2+3+2formula.Theprovisionsoutlinethatforthefirsttwoyearsfollowing

accessionaccesstothelabourmarketsofexistingEUmemberstatesdependsonthenationallawand

policyofthosememberstates.Nationalmeasuresmaybeextendedforafurtherperiodofthreeyears.

Afterthat,amemberstatethatappliednationalmeasurescanbeauthorisedtocontinuetoapply

suchnationalmeasuresforafurthertwoyearsbutonlyifitexperiencesseriousdisturbancesinits

labourmarket.Theapproachesadoptedbymemberstatesinrelationtothemovementofworkers

fromtheA8andA2countriesaresummarisedinTable3(nextpage).

TheWorkerRegistrationScheme

InordertocalmpublicworriesintherunuptoMay2004aroundanticipatedmigrationfromA8

countries,theUKGovernmentinsertedalast-minuteclausethatallowedfreemovementofworkers

providedthataccessionnationalshadregisteredwiththeWorkerRegistrationScheme(WRS).

ApplicantsarerequiredtoregisterontheschemeassoonastheystartworkingintheUK.Thecostof

3.Background:joiningtheEU


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registrationwas50initiallyandiscurrently90.Oncetheyhavecompleted12monthsworkwithno

morethan30daysbreak,workersnolongerneedtoregisterontheWorkerRegistrationScheme.

Applicantsrequireanewregistrationcertificateforeachnewjob.

Workersarenotrequiredtoregisterifthey:

areself-employed

havebeenworkinglegallyintheUKfor12monthswithoutabreakinemployment areprovidingservicesintheUKonbehalfofanemployerwhoisnotestablishedinthiscountry

havedualcitizenshipoftheUK,anothercountrywithintheEuropeanEconomicArea(EEA),orSwitzerland, or

arethefamilymemberofaSwissorEEAcitizen(exceptA8andA2nationals)andthatpersonisworking,astudent,retiredorself-sufficientintheUnitedKingdom.(HomeOfficeUKBorder

Agency2008)

Theserestrictionswillremaininplaceuntilatleast30April2009.

A2migrantworkersintheUK

InOctober2006theGovernmentannouncedthatgradualaccesstotheUKlabourmarketwouldbe

giventoRomanianandBulgariannationals.Skilledworkerscontinuetohaveaccesstothelabour

marketviatheHighlySkilledMigrantProgramme.Accessforlow-skilledworkersisquotalimitedand

restrictedtoexistingschemes(SeasonalAgriculturalWorkersScheme[SAWS]andSectorsBased

Scheme)fortheagriculturalandfoodprocessingsectors.Since1January2008participationinthese

low-skillschemeshavebeenrestrictedtoBulgarianandRomaniannationalsonly.

Low-skilledmigrantsarerequiredtoapplyforanAccessionWorkerCard,unlesstheyhaveaworkcard

issuedbytheSeasonalAgriculturalWorkersSchemeorwereaworkpermitholderbefore1January

2007.OncemigrantshavebeenworkinglegallyasanemployeeintheUKfor12monthswithouta

breaktheyhavefullrightsoffreemovementandnolongerneedpermissiontotakework.

Somehighlyskilledmigrantsarerequiredtoapplyforaregistrationcertificate,whichprovestheirrighttoworkintheUK.Otherhigh-skilledworkersareexemptfromthisrequirement,butmaychooseto

seekaregistrationcertificate,ascanmigrantswhoareself-employed.

Table3.RestrictionsonA8andA2migrantworkers,2004-2008

Levelofrestriction FirstPhaseA8,1May SecondPhaseA8,1May FirstPhaseA2,1January

200430April2006 200630April2009 200731December2008

Openaccesstolabour UK,IrelandandSweden Finland,Greece,Portugal, CzechRepublic,Cyprus,Estonia,

market Luxembourg,Netherlands Finland,Latvia,Lithuania,andSpainhavealllifted Poland,Slovenia,Slovakia,

theirrestrictionsduringthe Sweden

secondphase.

Workpermitsystem Austria,Belgium,Denmark, Austria,Belgium,France, Austria,Belgium,Denmark,

FinlandFrance,Germany, Denmark,Germany,Italy FinlandFrance,Germany,

Greece,Italy,Luxembourg, Greece,Hungary,Ireland,Italy,

Netherlands,Portugal,Spain Luxembourg,Malta,Netherlands,

Portugal,Spain,UK

Reducedrestrictionsfor Belgium,France,Denmark,

someprofessions Germany

Additionalrestrictions Austria,Germany

forsomeprofessions

Source:EuropeanCommissionstransitionalprovisionswebsite


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On30October2007theGovernmentannouncedthatitwouldmaintaintheserestrictionsonlabour

marketaccessuntilatleasttheendof2008(seeHomeOfficesBorderandImmigrationAgency

website).

Welfareentitlements

Thefreemovementofworkersisaseparateissuetotheaccessrightsofmigrantstoentitlementsfrom

theUKgovernment.Membersofbothnewandoldmemberstatesareallsubjecttothesame

stringentrequirementswhenitcomestoaccessingentitlementsfromtheUKgovernment,although

thelevelofprovisiondoesvarybetweenvisitorandmigrantworker.Indeed,therulesgoverningthe

welfareentitlementsofA8andA2nationalsintheUKarebroadlythesameasthoseofBritish

nationalswholiveorworkinotherEUmemberstates.

Untiltheyhavebeenincontinuousemployment(withbreaksoflessthan30days)for12months,A8

andA2workersareonlylegallyentitledtoresideintheUKiftheymeettheconditionsoutlined

above.A8andA2migrantshaveaccesstochildbenefitsandtaxcreditsassoonastheystartworking

(althoughtheylosethisentitlementiftheybecomeunemployedbeforeworkingfor12months)and

canclaimincome-relatedbenefitsafterhavingbeeninemploymentforoneyear.


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In2003,therewereanestimated850,000accessionstatenationalsresidingwithintheEU15countries

(excludingCyprusandMalta,butincludingRomaniaandBulgaria)(Brckeretal2003).Thisaccounted

for0.2percentoftheEU15populationandjustoveronepercentofthetotalpopulationoftheaccessioncountries.Ofthose850,000,onlyaboutfivepercent,around50,000people,wereestimated

toberesidingintheUK.The2001UKCensusfoundtherewere240,000peopleborninEastern

Europe(includingtheformerUSSR)livinginEnglandandWales,ofwhom58,000wereborninPoland.1

Thiscomparesto1.3millionbornoutsidetheUKbutwithinexistingEUmemberstates.

Ofthenewaccessioncountries,Polandhadthemostsignificantlevelofpre-2004migrationtotheUK,

withthemigrationroutehavingbeenentrenchedimmediatelyaftertheSecondWorldWar.ManyPoles

cametotheUKtosetupbusinessesfollowingtheratificationin1994oftheEuropeAgreement,which

allowedcandidatecountrynationalstobeself-employedinexistingEUcountries.Itisestimatedthat

thelevelofundocumentedmigrationamongPolestotheUKpriorto2004wassubstantial(Eadeetal

2006b),indicatingthatthenumberofPoles(andtoalesserextentotheraccessionstatenationals)

countedbythe2001Censuswaslikelytobeasignificantunderestimation.

Pre-enlargementmigrationforecasts

ThemostwidelycitedpredictionofwhatwouldhappenafterenlargementfoundthatnetinflowsofA8

nationalswouldbebetween5,000and13,000annuallyupuntil2010(Dustmannetal2003).The

updatetotheEuropeanCommissions2000reportestimatedslightlylargernetinflowstotheUK,

peakingat17,000twoyearsafterfreemovementofworkersispermitted,beforeslowingdown.The

reportalsoconcludedthatstockswouldrisefromjustunder60,000in2004,reachingjustunder

180,000in2030(Brckeretal2003).

TheseestimationsassumedlargenumbersheadingforGermanyaspertraditionalmigrationpatterns,

butbothstudiesarguedthatevenifGermanydidplacerestrictionsonentry,anydiversiontotheUK

wouldbesmall.ThetemporarynatureofA8migration,asdemonstratedbyanearlierInternational

OrganisationofMigrationsurvey(IOM1998),wouldencouragemostpotentialmigrantstowaituntil

restrictionswerelifted.

ThatmanymoreA8nationalsregisteredtoworkintheUKthanthepredictednetinflowscanbe

explainedbythefollowingreasons:

TheforecastedfiguresmentionedabovedidnottakeintoaccounttheunforeseenrestrictionsimposedbyfourfifthsofEUmembers.Evenwithoutthewidespreadrestrictions,thepredictions

underestimatedthediversioneffectthatotherEUmemberstatesimpositionoflabourmarket

restrictionswouldhave.Thepost-enlargementdiversionhasbeensogreatthatA8migrationto

Germany,traditionallythemostpopulardestinationformanyA8nationals,hasreacheditslowest

levelsince1991(Traser2005).

Thepredictionswerebasedonpermanent,ratherthantemporarymigrationflows.Asweoutlinebelow,ahighproportionofA8nationalshavecometotheUKforashortperiodoftimebefore

returningtoEasternEurope.

Around30-40percentofthosewhoregisteredwereworkingintheUKpriortoaccession,ratherthanenteringasnewmigrants.2 Aproportionofthesewouldhavebeenworkinglegallyorhave

beenresidentasstudents,butmanywouldhavebeenirregular.

Aparticularlybuoyanteconomy,lowunemploymentratesandhighlabourdemandproducedaparticularlystrongpullfactortotheUK.

1.NationalStatistics,TableS104Ethnicgroupbyreligion:

www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Expodata/Spreadsheets/D7547.xls2.Between1Mayand31December2004,theAccessionMonitoringReport(HomeOfficeetal 2005a)

showsthat24percentstatedtheyhadbeenintheUKpriortoaccession,and16percentdidnotstate

theirtimeofarrival(37percentintotal).ByJune2005,thesefigureshadfallento15percentand16

percentrespectively(31percentintotal)(HomeOfficeetal 2005b).

4.Thescaleofpost-enlargementmigration


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Inthewakeofthesignificantunderestimationofthelikelynumberofpost-A8-accessionmigrantsto

theUK,theGovernmentwasreluctanttomakepredictionsaboutthenumberofRomanianand

BulgariannationalswhowerelikelytocometotheUK.However,intheperiodbeforethe

announcementinOctober2006ofrestrictionsonRomanianandBulgarianworkerscomingtotheUK,

abroadrangeofpredictionswasmadeaboutthelikelyflowsifthesamerestrictionswereappliedto

BulgariaandRomaniaastotheA8countries.

ipprpredictedthattheinflowsofRomanianandBulgarianmigrantstotheUKwouldbe40percentof

A8inflows,assumingthatA2nationalswereallowedtomigrateunderthesameconditionsasA8

nationals.Weestimatedthat50,000Romaniansand18,000Bulgariansapplicantscouldbeapprovedto

workintheUKduringthefirstyearofaccession,andthat18percentoftheseapplicantswouldhave

beenintheUKpriortoRomaniaandBulgariajoiningtheEU(DrewandSriskandarajah2006).

Thesepredictionswerealsobasedontheobservationsthat,incontrasttocountrieslikePolandthat

hadlong-establishedmigratorylinkswiththeUK,thereweresmallexistingpopulationsofBulgarians

andRomaniansintheUK.(The2001Censusrecordedaround7,500Romaniansand5,350Bulgarians

legallyresidinginUK,comparedwitharound60,000Poles.)Also,RomanianisaRomancelanguage,

makingcountriesinSouthernEuropesuchasItaly,FranceandSpainwhoselanguagesarealsofromthatfamilymoreattractivethantheUKforlargenumbersofRomanianmigrants(seealsoDuvell

2007).

TheupperendofthescaleofpredictionscamefromorganisationssuchasthethinktankOpen

Europe,whichsuggestedthatbasedonmakingcomparisonswiththeeconomiccharacteristicsofthe

A8countries,theUKcouldexpect450,000Romanianmigrantsand170,000Bulgarianmigrantsinthe

firsttwoyearsaftertheA2accession(OpenEurope2007).

Intheevent,asdiscussedbelow,theUKGovernmentsdecisiontoestablishaworkpermitsystemfor

BulgarianandRomanianmigrantsmeantthattheactualnumberofregistrationsinthefirstyearwas

muchsmallerthanthesepredictions.

A8arrivalssinceMay2004TheInternationalPassengerSurveycarriedoutbytheOfficeforNationalStatisticsestimatesthat

53,000migrantsfromtheA8countriesarrivedintheUKin2004withtheintentionofstayingforat

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Thousands

EU 15 EU A8* Commonwealth Old Commonwealth New Other foreign

*EU A8 are classified as Other foreign before 2004

Figure2.ImmigrationtoandfromtheUKbycountryofcitizenship,1991-2006

Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics2006a


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leastayear.Thisisthestrictestoftheusualdefinitionsofamigrantbecauseitrequiressomeoneto

knowwhentheyarriveintheUKthattheyintendtostayformorethanayear.Giventhenatureof

migratoryflowsfromnewEUmemberstates,relativelyfewmigrantsfallintothiscategory

comparedwithmigrantsfromoutsidetheEUwhoaremorelikelytoembarkonlong-term

migration.

Nevertheless,evenbythisstrictdefinition,therewasanincreaseinarrivalsfromtheA8in2005to

76,000andto92,000in2006.Between2004and2006,A8migrantswentfrommakingup11per

centofallimmigrantstotheUKto18percent,andincreasedasaproportionofEUcitizens

arrivingfrom41percentto55percent.Figuresarenotyetavailablefor2007.

Anothermeasureofgrossarrivals,likelytogiveabetterindicationofthescaleofA8migration,

comesfromtheWorkerRegistrationScheme(seeFigure3).Thisindicatesthatintotal796,000

initialapplicationsweremadetoregisterontheWRS,ofwhich766,000initialapplicationswere

approvedbetweenApril2004andDecember2007.

However,thosewhoarerequiredtoregistermaynotalwaysdosoandsomeworkersareexempt

fromregisteringontheWRS,mostnotablythosewhoareself-employed(seeBackgroundsection

above).AccordingtotheLFS,theproportionofA8migrantswhoareself-employedstandsat14

percent,andothersurveyshaveestimatedthatthenumberofA8workersnotregisteredonthe

schemestandsatbetweenaroundaquarterandathird(FifeResearchCoordinationGroup2008,

UniversityofSurrey2006).

OursurveysuggeststhatmorethanfourintenPoles(42percent)whohaveworkedintheUK

since2004andnowreturnedtoPolandwerenotregisteredontheWorkerRegistrationScheme.It

maybethatthosewhohavereturnedtoPolandwerelesslikelytoberegisteredonthescheme

thanotherswhohaveremainedintheUK.Ontheotherhand,themigrantswhohadreturnedto

Polandweinterviewedmayprovideamoreaccuratepictureofthescaleofnon-registrationthan

migrantsinterviewedforsurveysintheUK,whomaybemorecautiousaboutadmittingtheyare

notregisteredonthescheme.

Whilethereisuncertaintyabouttheexactscaleofnon-registrationamongA8migrants,wehave

takenaccountoftheconsiderationsabovetoscaleupthegrossnumberofarrivalsbetweenMay2004

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Q2-2004 Q3-2004 Q4-2004 Q1-2005 Q2-2005 Q3-2005 Q4-2005 Q1-2006 Q2-2006 Q3-2006 Q4-2006 Q1-2007 Q2-2007 Q3-2007 Q4-2007

Thousands

Year/quarter

Figure3.WorkerRegistrationSchemeregistrations,May2004-December2007

Source:HomeOfficeetal2005a,2008a


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andDecember2007.Ourcalculationsusethemid-point3ofourandtheothersurveysestimatesof

theproportionofmigrantworkerswhoarenotWRSregistered(33percent)toproduceafigurefor

estimatedgrossarrivals.Usingthismethod,weestimatethatthetotalnumberofmigrantworkers

fromA8countrieswhohavearrivedsince2004standsatjustoveronemillion(1,018,400)4.

ThenumberofNationalInsurancenumbers(NiNos)issuedprovidesanotherindicationofhowmanymigrantshavearrivedintheUKsince2004beyondthosewhoarerequiredtoregisterontheWRS.

TheGovernmentestimatesthat807,115NiNoswereissuedtoA8migrantsbetweenMay2004and

December2007foremployment,benefitandtaxcreditpurposes(HomeOfficeetal2008a).However,

itislikelythatthesefiguresalsounder-representthenumberofpeopleworking,withonestudy

estimatingthat13percentofA8workersdonothaveaNiNo(FifeResearchCoordinationGroup

2008).Basedonthisestimate,912,000A8workerswouldhaveregisteredforaNiNoduringthis

period.

ItisworthnotingthatevidencefromIreland,oneoftheothercountriesthathastakenaliberal

approachtothemovementofA8workers,hasissuedatotalof467,267PersonalPublicService

Numbers(similartoUKNiNosbutthoughttohavemoreuniversalcoverage)toA8/A2nationals

between1May2004andtheendofMarch2008(DSFA2008).AlmostasmanyPoleshavebeenissuedwiththesenumbersasIrishnationalsinthelastfewyears.

BothWRSregistrationsandNiNoallocationsindicatethatthenumberofA8migrantsarrivinginthe

UKpeakedinthelastquarterof2006,whentherewere63,350approvedWRSregistrationsand

76,460NiNosallocated.Therewereaquarter(18,789)fewerNiNosallocatedandaquarter(16,020)

fewerWRSregistrationsapprovedinthelastquarterof2007thaninthelastquarterof2006.

A8departuressinceMay2004

AccordingtotheInternationalPassengerSurvey(IPS),just40,000A8migrantspermanentlyleftthe

UKbetween2004and2006.Thereasonsforthissignificantunderestimationofthelikelynumbersof

A8migrantswhohaveleftareoutlinedinthesectiononmethodology.However,theIPSrecordsthat

between2004and2006,A8migrantswentfromconstitutingtwopercentofallpermanentnon-UKemigrantsto11percentandthepercentageofEUnationalsleavingtheUKpermanentlywhocame

fromA8countriesrosefromsevenpercentin2004to33percentin2006.Althoughthese

percentagesmaynotbecompletelyaccurate,theyprovideanindicationthatthenumberofA8

migrantsleavingtheUK,aswellasarrivinginthecountryhassignificantlyincreasedsincethe

enlargementoftheEUin2004.

AbetterestimationofthenumberofA8migrantswhohaveleftthecountrycanbeobtainedby

comparingestimatedinflowfigureswithstockfigures.Thismethodologybroadlysuggeststhataround

halfofA8migrantswhohavearrivedsinceMay2004hadlefttheUKbytheendofDecember2007.

Forexample,Table4(nextpage)showsthatcomparingtheyearofarrivalofLFSrespondentsresident

intheUKinQuarter42007withgrossarrivalsofworkingmigrantsindicatesthataroundhalfofthose

whoarrivedin2004,2005and2006hadlefttheUKbytheendof2007.

3.ThelowestestimatebasedonsurveydataisthatoftheFifeResearchCoordinationGroup,which

foundthat23percentofA8migrantsinFifewerenotregisteredontheWRS.Oursurveyfoundthe

highestestimateofthescaleofunderestimationwehaveseen,suggestingthat42percentofworkersare

notregistered.

4.Thisfigureexcludesfull-timestudentswhoarenotregisteredontheWRS.DatafromtheHigherEducationStatisticsAgency(HESA)indicatesthatthenumberofA8nationalsinfull-timeeducationis

notsufficientlylargetosubstantiallyaffectthesecalculations.Thefigurealsoexcludeschildrenof

migrantworkers,andadultdependantswhoarenotworking.47,170childrenwereregisteredbyWRSworkersbetweenMay2004andDecember2007.37,855adultdependantswerealsoregisteredbyWRS

workersduringthisperiod.However,itislikelythatmanyoftheseadultdependantswerealsoworking

andwerethemselvesregisteredonWRS.


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AsFigure4illustrates,thereisasignificantdifferencebetweenthecumulativetotalofWRSandNiNo

registrationsbyA8migrantsbetweenMay2004andDecember2007andtheincreaseinstock,asrecordedbytheLFSduringthisperiod.ThediscrepancybetweenthenumberofnewWRS

registrationsandtheincreaseintheLFSstockofA8nationalsofworkingageduringthisperiodis

289,000,anditislikelythatasignificantproportionofthisfigurehasreturnedhomeorgone

elsewhere.However,asdiscussedabove,WRSfiguresunderestimatethenumbersofA8migrantswho

havearrived.Again,usingthemidpointestimateof33percentnotregisteredontheWRS,around

541,000A8migrantworkersmayhaveleftthecountrybetweenMay2004andDecember2007,

whichisjustoverhalfofthoseweestimatetohavearrived.

OursurveydataindicatesthatthepaceofreturntoPolandamongmigrantsintheUKhas

acceleratedduring2007and2008,indicatingthatanecdotalevidencethatPolesarestartingto

returningreaternumberspaintsanaccuratepicture.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Q2-

2004

Q3-

2004

Q4-

2004

Q1-

2005

Q2-

2005

Q3-

2005

Q4-

2005

Q1-

2006

Q2-

2006

Q3-

2006

Q4-

2006

Q1-

2007

Q2-

2007

Q3-

2007

Q4-

2007

Thousands

WRS cumulative total LFS population of working age stock

NiNo registrations cumulative total Projected cumulative total arrivals

Figure4.StockandcumulativefiguresofA8nationalsofworkingageintheUK,March2004-December2007

Source:HomeOfficeetal2005a,2008a,LFSandipprcalculations

Table4.A8nationalsofworkingagebyyearofarrivalinQ42007,comparedwithgrossarrivals

Year WRSregistrations Totalannualgross A8nationalsbyyear Proportionofgrossarrivals

arrivalsofA8workers* ofarrival,Q42007** estimatedtohavelefttheUK

byQ42007

2004 125,880 167,420 83,000 51%

2005 204,970 272,610 141,000 49%

2006 227,875 303,074 131,000 57%

Notes:LFSfiguresroundedtothenearestthousand.

*ThisisourestimateofthetotalnumberofA8nationalsarrivingintheUK,includingestimatesofthosenotregistered

(basedonanon-registrationfigureof33%,themiddleoftherangeofnon-registrationestimates)

**A8nationalsofworkingageexcludingfulltimestudents.

Source:LFS,Q42007andHomeofficeetal2008a


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A2arrivalssinceJanuary2007

AccordingtotheAccessionMonitoringStatistics,2,185applicationsforAccessionWorkerCardsby

Bulgariannationalsandby1,430Romaniannationalswereapprovedin2007.Duringthesameperiod,

18,995Romaniansand8,410Bulgarianswereissuedwithregistrationcertificates,and29,083

NationalInsurancenumberswereissuedtoRomanianandBulgariannationals(HomeOfficeetal2007a-c,2008b).DataindicatingthenumberofA2migrantswhohavelefttheUKsinceJanuary

2007arenotyetavailable.

CurrentpopulationofA8andA2migrantsintheUK

Webelievethatdespiteitslimitationsasatoolforestimatingthenumberofmigrantsinthecountry,

theLFSisthemostaccuratedatasourceavailableasanestimateofthenumberofpost-enlargement

migrantscurrentlyintheUK.Accordingtothesurvey,therewere665,000nationalsofA8andA2

countrieslivingintheUKinthelastquarterof2007.Thisisanincreaseof548,000sincethefirst

quarterof2004,justpriortotheA8accession.

Thisincreasecanalsobeseeninthetwolargestcountry-of-origingroupsamongA8andA2

population,PolesandLithuanians,theonlytwogroupswhicharesufficientlylargetoanalyseindividuallyfromthelatestLFSfigures.Table5showsthatthenumbersofPolish-bornandPolish

nationalpeopleresidentintheUKhasincreasedsignificantlyinrecentyears.Polishnationalshave

gonefrombeingthe13thbiggestgroupofimmigrantsintheUKbeforePolandjoinedtheEUto

beingthesinglebiggestimmigrantgroupattheendof2007.Thisrisecanalsobeseeninthosewho

wereborninPoland,whoarenowestimatedtobethesecondlargestcountry-of-birthgroupbehind

thoseborninIndia.Interestingly,Censusdatafrom2001suggeststhatthePolish-bornpopulation

hadbeengrowingevenbefore2004.WhilesamplesizesandlackofdatafromtheCensusmeanthat

theincreasesintheLithuanianpopulationcannotbetrackedinthesameway,itistellingthat

LithuaniannationalshavegonefrombeingastatisticallyinsignificantgroupintheLFSinearly2004

tobeingthe23rdlargestforeignnationalgroupintheUKattheendof2007.

Otherindicatorsonthescaleofpost-enlargementmigration

Intheabsenceofrobustdataonthescaleofpost-enlargementmigration,itisalsousefultosee

whetherotherindicatorsthatarenotdirectlymigration-relatedsuggestasimilarscaleofincrease.

PerhapsthemostobviousindicatoristhehugeincreaseinthenumberofflightsbetweentheUK

andthenewEUmemberstates,withsubstantiallymorepassengersflyingbetweenmanymore

destinationsthanbefore2004(seeFigure5,nextpage).InDecember2003some40,000

passengersflewbetweenthreeBritishairportsandWarsawandKrakowinPoland.ByDecember

2007,itwaspossibletoflyfrom22BritishairportstotenPolishcities,andpassengernumbers

betweenthesedestinationsthatmonthwerealmost385,000(CivilAviationAuthority2008).In

totalsome10millionairpassengerstravelledbetweentheUKandA8/A2countriesin2007,a

three-foldincreaseonpre-enlargementairtraffic.

Table5.PolesandLithuaniansintheUK,variousyears

Census2001 LFS2004Q1 LFS2007Q4

Number Rankamongall Number Rankamongall

immigrantgroups immigrantgroups

Polishnationals Nodataavailable 53,000 13 447,000 1

Polish-born 58,000 84,000 14 458,000 2

Lithuaniannationals Nodataavailable * * 51,000 23

Lithuanian-born 4,200 * * 52,000 32

*Notstatisticallysignificant

Source:Census2001,LFSandipprcalculations


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TheincreaseinthenumberofflightsfromtheUKtothenewmemberstatesappearstohavebeenaccompaniedbyadeclineinthenumberofcoachesmakingthesejourneys.InJuly2007,around80

coachesranperweekbetweenLondonsVictoriaCoachStationanddestinationsinA8countries,

including67inPoland.AtthebeginningofMarch2008,thisnumberstoodataround45coaches

(TransportforLondon2008).Evenaccountingforseasonaldifferencesbetweenthesetwosnapshots,

thereisacleartrendofdecliningpopularityofcoachtravelbetweentheUKandthenewmember

states.AnecdotalevidencesuggeststhatwhilemigrantsmayarriveintheUKforthefirsttimeby

coach,sothattheycanbringlargeamountsofbaggage,theyoftenchoosetoflywhenmaking

subsequenttrips.

TherehasalsobeenasimilarincreaseinthetouristvisitstoUKbyA8nationals.AsFigure6(next

page)indicates,visitstotheUKhaveincreaseddramaticallysinceMay2004.Whilemanyaccession

nationalshavecometoworkintheBritisheconomy,inthelastthreemonthsof2006(thelastperiodforwhichdataisavailable),48percentofthe611,000visitsfromA8nationalsduringthatperiod

wereforleisurepurposes,ahighproportionofwhichwerepresumablytovisitfriendsandfamilywho

havemovedtotheUK.TheseadditionalnumbersarelikelytohaveapositiveimpactontheBritish

tourismsector(OfficeforNationalStatistics2006b).

AnotherindicatoristhegrowthinsalesofA8primarilyPolishgoodsandservicesintheUK.For

example,therehavebeenseveralhundredPolishdelisestablishedthroughoutthecountryoverthe

lastfouryears.EstablishedsuppliershavebeencateringtotheincreaseddemandforPolishgoods.In

July2007,TescoannouncedthatitwasdoublingbothitsrangeofPolishproductsandthenumberof

storesstockingthem.TesconowsellsPolishfoodinmorestoresintheUKthanPoland,whereithas

280shops(Tesco2007).Similarly,theleadingPolishbeerbrandsLechandTyskiewerenotwidely

availableintheUKpriorto2004.AccordingtothebrandsownerSABMiller,annualUKsalesofthetwobeersnowexceed44millionpintsperyear(SABMiller2008).

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Numberofpassengers(Millions)

Poland Rest of A8 A2

Figure5.InternationalpassengertraffictoandfromUKairports,1997-2007*

Source:CivilAviationAuthority2003

*Includesallpassengerscarriedonscheduledandcharteredservicesexcludingthosecarriedonaircraftcharteredby

Governmentdepartments


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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1 Qtr-

2003

2 Qtr-

2003

3 Qtr-

2003

4 Qtr-

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2004

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3 Qtr-

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4 Qtr-

2004

1 Qtr-

2005

2 Qtr-

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2005

1 Qtr-

2006

2 Qtr-

2006

3 Qtr-

2006

4 Qtr-

2006

VisitstotheUK(thousands)

Czech Republic

Poland

Other A8

Figure6.VisitstotheUKfromA8nationals,2003-2006

Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics2006b


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Nationality

Thelargemajorityofpost-accessionmigrantstotheUKhavecomefromPoland.Twothirds(66

percent)ofallapprovedapplications(508,385)totheWRSbetweenMay2004andDecember2007werefromPoles.ThePolishStatisticalOffice(CSO)estimatesthat580,000Poleswereliving

intheUKin2006,andthat30percentofPolishmigrantslivingintheEUwereinBritain.The

secondlargestpopulationofPolishmigrantswasinGermany,wheretheCSOestimates23per

centofmigrantswere.AccordingtotheCSOtheoutflowofmigrantstotheUKincreasedby127

percentbetween2004and2005,causingtheUKtoovertakeGermanyasthemostpopular

destination.TheincreaseinoutflowtotheUKbetween2005and2006was71percent(Kepinska

2007).

ThenexttwolargestgroupsofmigrantstohaveregisteredontheWRSareSlovakian(78,830)

andLithuanian(73,315),intotalamountingtoaroundtwoineverytenapplicants.Moderate

numbersofpeoplehavecometoworkfromtheCzechRepublic,LatviaandHungary(34,555,

37,300and25,755respectively).Only6,845Estoniansandjust695Slovenianshaveregisteredonthescheme.

TheproportionsofA8migrantscomingtotheUKfromeachcountryhaveremainedbroadly

constant,withtheexceptionofLithuania,whosemigrantpopulationintheUKhasdeclinedsince

theendof2005.ThenumberofLithuanianswhoregisteredontheWRSwasalmost30percent

lowerinthelastquarterof2007thaninthelastquarterof2006(2,870comparedwith4,015).

DatafromtheLabourForceSurvey,presentedinFigure8(nextpage),suggestsasimilarnational

profile.

5.Thedemographicprofileofpost-enlargementmigrants

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

2004 2005 2006 2007

Thousands

Slovenia

Slovakia

Poland

Lithuania

Latvia

Hungary

Estonia

Czech Republic

Figure7.WorkerRegistrationSchemeregistrationsapprovedbynationality,2004-2007



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Gender

OfthosemigrantworkerswhoregisteredontheWRSbetweenMay2004andDecember2007,57per

centweremenand43percentwerewomen(HomeOfficeetal2008a).ThesamegenderratiowasfoundamongRomaniansandBulgarianswhocametotheUKbetweenOctoberandDecember2007

(HomeOfficeetal2008b).

Thehighernumberofmenthanwomenarrivingsince2004hassignificantlyalteredthegenderprofile

ofthestockofmigrantsfromthenewaccessioncountrieslivingintheUK.Theolderprofileofpeople

borninEasternEuropelivingintheUKpre-accessionmeantthatthereweresignificantlymorewomen

thanmenamongthisgroup(duetowomenlivinglongeronaveragethanmen).

Age

AsFigure9indicates(nextpage),post-accessionmigrantsareoverwhelminglyagedbetween18and

34.MorethaneightintenA8workers(82percent)whoregisteredbetweenMay2004and

December2007fellintothiscategory.Morethanfourinten(43percent)wereaged18-24,and39percentwereaged25-34.

MorethansevenintenRomanianandBulgariannationals(73percent)registeringforanAccession

WorkerCardorregistrationcertificatebetweenOctoberandDecember2007wereaged18-34.In

comparisonwithA8workers,moreofthoseregisteringfromA2countriesfellintothe25-34ageband

(46percent)thanthe18-24band(27percent).

AccordingtotheLFS,75percentofA8andA2nationalsresidentintheUKin2007wereaged16-

39.Similarlyaswithgender,thepost-accessionwaveofmigrationhastransformedtheageprofileof

thestockofpeopleborninthosecountriesnowlivingintheUK.(SeeFigure10,nextpage.)

Maritalstatus

In2007,theLFSfoundthat58percentofA8andA2nationalsintheUKweremarried,cohabitingor

inacivilpartnership.OursurveyfoundthatoneinfivereturnedPoles(19percent)arrivedintheUK

withtheirpartnerorspouse.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Countrynationalsas%o

fA8/A2nationalsintheUK

Czech Republic Lithuania Poland Slovakia A2 Other A8

Figure8.DistributionofA8/A2nationalsintheUKbynationality,2001-2007

Source:LFSandipprcalculations


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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

A8/A2nationalsbyageas%o

fA8/A2nationalsintheUK

Under 16 16-24 25-39 40-64 65+

Figure10.DistributionofA8/A2nationalsintheUKbyage,2001-2007


Ageinyears

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Countrynationalsas%oA

8/A2nationalsintheUK


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Dependants

TheproportionofworkersfromtheA8countrieswithdependantslivingwiththematthetimethey

registeredisverylow.OnlysevenpercentofworkerswhoregisteredontheWRSbetweenMay2004

andDecember2007declaredtheyhaddependantslivingwiththemintheUK.Intotal,theWRSrecords

85,270dependantswhohavearrivedwithregisteredworkerssince2004,55percentofwhomwereagedunder17(HomeOfficeetal2008a).Theproportionofregisteredworkerswhohavedependants

increasedbetween2004and2007,yetevenin2006,whenthenumberofnewly-registeredworkerswith

dependantsappearstohavepeaked,onlyninepercentofnewarrivalsregistereddependentadultsor

children.AsthoseregisteringontheWRSmayrecorddependantswhoarealsoworkingandregistered

onthescheme,thesefiguresarelikelytooverestimatethenumberofadultdependants.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%


Workers with dependants/Total workers Dependants under 17/Total workers Dependants 17 and over/Total workers

Figure11.WorkerswithdependantsregisteredattheWorkerRegistrationScheme,May2004-December2007

Source:HomeOfficeetal2005a,2008aandipprcalculations

TheLFSestimatesthat13percentofaccessionstatenationalslivingintheUKin2007areaged16

orunder.AccordingtotheDepartmentforChildren,SchoolsandFamilies,Polishisnowthemost

commonly-spokenfirstlanguageamongnon-English-speakingnewly-arrivedmigrantschoolchildren

acrossEngland(DepartmentforChildren,SchoolsandFamilies2008).

Levelofeducation

Definitivedataonnewaccessionmigrantslevelofeducationisnotavailable.WhiletheLFSprovides

dataonthequalificationsheldbyrespondents,qualificationsnotobtainedintheUKareclassifiedas

otherandnootherdetailaboutthemisprovided.However,arangeofsurveyandadministrativedata

suggeststhatasagrouptheyarehighlyeducated.

EadeetalusetheagevariableoftheLFSdatasetandWorldBankeducationstatisticstocalculatethe

averagenumberofyearsspentinfull-timeeducationamongA8migrants.Theyfindthatonaverage

PolishmigrantsintheUKhave13.6yearsoffull-timeeducation,andthattheaverageforotherA8

migrantsis11.9years.Theysuggestthatthehigherproportionofstudentsamongnon-PolishA8

migrantscouldexplainthisdifference.ippranalysisofLFSdatainDecember2007foundthatthe

averageageforleavingfull-timeeducationamongPolishnationalsis20.1,comparedwith17.5among

UKcitizens.Ofthe25largestimmigrantgroupsintheUK,Polesranksixthintermsoflengthoftime

spentinfull-timeeducation(Sriskandarajahetal2007).

Asurveyofmorethan900A8workersinFifefoundthatnearly30percenthadauniversitydegree,and

afurther22percenthadanunder-graduatelevelqualification(FifeResearchCoordinationGroup2008).


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Post-enlargementmigrantshavemovedtoalargernumberofdifferentareasoftheUKthanhaveany

previousgroupsofmigrants.Thisreflectsthefactthatthisgroupsoverwhelmingmotivationfor

comingtotheUKistowork.Asagrouptheyhavehighdegreeofmobility,movingtowhereworkisavailable.

Overall,thehighestnumbersofNiNoandWRSapplicationsfromA8andA2nationalssince2004

havebeeninLondonandtheSouthEast.However,asignificantlysmallerproportionofA8andA2

migrantsliveinandaroundthecapitalthanforeign-bornresidentsasawholeandallregionshave

receivedsignificantnumbersofpost-enlargementmigrants.In2007PolishNiNorecipientswere

registeredineverylocalauthorityinBritain(Rabindrakumar2008).AsTable6shows,areasthathave

nottraditionallyattractedlargenumbersimmigrants,suchastheEastofEngland,theSouthWest,

ScotlandandNorthernIreland,havedrawnasignificantproportionofpost-enlargementmigrants.

Thereisalsoevidencetosuggestthatsomeofthesespatialpatternshavechangedovertime.Initially,

A8migrantswereconcentratedinLondonandtheSouthEast.Thiscanbepartlyexplainedbythefact

thatmanymigrantsfromtheA8countriesalreadyworkingintheseregionswouldhaveregisteredon

WRSin2004,althoughthefallintheproportionofnewregistrantsinLondonbetween2004and

2005wasdramatic(ninepercent),aswastheincreaseinthenumbersregisteringinotherregions

(seeAppendixA).However,theLFSfiguresforstockineachregionattheendof2007suggestthat

peoplewhoinitiallyregisteredinsomeregions,particularlytheEastofEngland,mayhave

subsequentlymovedaway.ManyofthesepeoplemayhavemovedtoLondonandtheSouthEast,

wherethestockfiguresarehigherthantheproportionofWRSregistrationsinthoseareas.

Table7liststhetenlocalauthoritiesthatweestimatehavethehighestnumberofA8workersin

proportiontotheirresidentpopulation.TheCityofLondon,whichtopsthelist,isanomalousbecause

ofitsverysmallresidentpopulation.WiththeexceptionoftheCityandtheLondonBoroughof

Westminster,thelistismadeupofplaceswhichhavenotpreviouslyreceivedsignificantnumbersof

migrants.

6.Thespatialprofileofpost-enlargementmigration

Table6.A8/A2nationalscomparedwithotherforeignnationalsandUKnationalsofworkingagebyregion,

2007Government A8/A2NiNo WRSapprovals A8/A2nationals NonA8/A2 UKnationalsof

OfficeRegion applications2006/7 2004-2007 ofworkingage foreignnationals workingage

arrivedsince2004 ofworkingage

NorthEast 1.7% 1.2% 2.0% 1.8% 5.2%

NorthWest 8.6% 8.4% 7.2% 6.7% 10.7%

Yorks&Humber 7.3% 8.2% 6.9% 5.5% 8.6%

EastMidlands 8.1% 10.3% 11.1% 4.4% 7.3%

WestMidlands 8.0% 8.5% 7.6% 7.5% 8.8%

EastofEngland 9.1% 12.0% 4.8% 3.2% 3.7%

London 21.8% 15.4% 21.4% 40.9% 11.1%SouthEast 11.2% 13.4% 17.1% 17.3% 19.3%

SouthWest 7.4% 7.6% 8.4% 4.2% 8.5%

Wales 2.9% 2.9% 3.8% 2.2% 5.1%

Scotland 9.3% 8.3% 5.3% 4.6% 8.8%

NorthernIreland 4.7% 3.9% 4.3% 1.8% 3.0%

Note:Sometotalsmaynotsumto100%duetorounding

Source:DepartmentforWorkandPensions2007,HomeOffice2008c,LFSandipprcalculations


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AfulllistoflocalauthoritiescanbefoundinAppendixB.Itpresentssomeinterestingdifferencesthat

needtobeexploredinmoredepth.Forexample,somelocalauthoritiesinNorthernEngland,suchas

Sheffield,StockportandWigan,haveattractedrelativelylownumbersofA8migrantsinproportionto

thesizeoftheirpopulations.Itmaybethatthesepatternsarerelatedtotheavailabilityof

employment,butfurtherexaminationofthesetrendsisnecessary.

Althoughthearrivalofnewmigrantstoareaswithnohistoryofimmigrationmayinalimitednumber

ofcasescreatesomeshort-termissuesforlocalauthoritiestoaddress,itisclearthatthemovementof

post-enlargementmigrantstosomepartsoftheUKhasbroughtsignificanteconomicbenefitsand

assistancetoregionaldevelopment.AsignificantproportionofA8migrantshavemovedtoruralareas,

providinglabourinareaswhererecruitmentcanbedifficult.AccordingtotheCommissionforRural

Communities(CRC),120,000migrantworkersregisteredintheruralareasofEnglandbetweenMay

2004andSeptember2006,representingalmostaquarter(23percent)ofWRSregistrationsduring

thatperiod.TheCRCalsofoundahigherdegreeofseasonalityinWRSregistrationsinruralareasthan

nationally,withSeptemberbeingthepeakregistrationmonth(CommissionforRuralCommunities

2007).

Table7.LocalauthoritieswithhighestnumbersofWRSworkersper1,000residents

Localauthority ApprovedWRSapplications 2006populationestimate NumberofA8workersper

May2004-December2007 1,000residentsbasedonour

estimateofcurrentA8stock*

CityofLondon 3,590 7,800 306

Boston 7,875 58,300 90

Westminster 19,275 231,900 55

Northampton 14,250 200,100 47

SouthHolland 5,195 82,100 42

Peterborough 9,995 163,300 41

Fenland 4,760 90,100 35

Dungannon 2,735 52,300 35

CountyofHerefordshire 9,285 177,800 35

EastCambridgeshire 4,115 79,600 34

Source:HomeOffice2008candONSwithipprcalculations

*OurestimateofthecurrentA8stockisbasedontheassumptionsoutlinedearlierinthereport;thattheWRS

underestimatestheactuallevelofworkerregistrationby33percent;andthat50percentofA8migrantswhohavearrived

sinceMay2004arenolongerintheUK.


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Employment

Thevastmajorityofpost-enlargementmigrantslivinginBritainareworking.AccordingtotheLFS,84

percentofA8andA2nationalsofworkingagelivingintheUKinDecember2007wereinwork.ThisfigureishigherthanthepercentageofUKnationalsofworkingageinemployment(76percent)and

isoneofthehighestlevelsamongallforeignnationalslivingintheUK.Table8showsthehighrates

ofemploymentamongA8andA2migrantsofworkingage.Itillustratesthatthelargemajorityof

post-enlargementmigrantshavecometotheUKtowork,withtheproportionofA8andA2nationals

ofworkingageinemploymentincreasingsteeplyduring2004and2005assignificantnumbersof

migrantsarrived.

In2007,fivepercentofA8andA2nationalsintheUKwereunemployedandtenpercentwere

economicallyinactive.Thefactthattheproportionofthisgroupthatwaseconomicallyinactivestood

at33percentpriorto2003suggeststhatmanyofthisgrouparepensionerswhoarelong-time

residentsoftheUK(seeFigure12,nextpage).

7.Thesocio-economicprofileofpost-enlargementmigrants

Table8.A8andA2nationalsofworkingageandinemploymentintheUK

Year/quarter Total Workingage Inemployment %ofthoseofworkingage

inemployment

2004

Q1 117,000 90,000 56,000 63

Q2 94,000 76,000 59,000 78

Q3 146,000 125,000 90,000 72

Q4 174,000 150,000 114,000 76

2005

Q1 180,000 156,000 117,000 75

Q2 228,000 198,000 159,000 80

Q3 271,000 235,000 190,000 81

Q4 305,000 265,000 215,000 82

2006

Q1 348,000 297,000 245,000 83

Q2 365,000 314,000 260,000 83

Q3 428,000 373,000 308,000 83

Q4 501,000 430,000 356,000 83

2007

Q1 533,000 458,000 374,000 82

Q2 620,000 530,000 435,000 82

Q3 616,000 521,000 434,000 83

Q4 665,000 567,000 474,000 84

Note:Figuresareroundedtothenearestthousand

Source:LabourForceSurvey


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Benefitsclaimants

AsmembersoftheEuropeanUnion,A8andA2nationalsenjoybroadlythesameentitlementsto

benefitsandsupportasBritishnationalswholiveandworkintheEUoutsidetheUK.Thepossibility

ofenlargementresultinginlargenumbersofwhatthetabloidpresshaslabelledbenefittouristscomingtotheUKtoenjoyrelativelybetterstatebenefitswasaprominentconcernindiscussionsof

EUenlargement.Yettheevidencesuggeststhatonlyasmallproportionofpost-enlargementmigrants

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Employed Unemployed Inactive

Figure12.DistributionofA8/A2nationalsofworkingageintheUKbyeconomicactivity*,2001-2007

*Excludesfulltimestudents


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


Allocated for employment purposes Allocated for benefit purposes Allocated for tax credit purposes Refused

Thousands

Figure13.NiNoapplicationsfromA8nationals,May2004-December2007



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haveclaimedbenefits,andwheretheyhaveclaimedbenefitsthesehaveprincipallybeentaxcredits

andChildBenefitclaimedbymigrantswhoareworking.Ofthe819,000NiNosissuedtoA8nationals

betweenApril2004andDecember2007(seeFigure13),97.6percentwereissuedforemployment

purposes,with1.6percentallocatedforthepurposeofclaimingtaxcreditsand0.8percentforthe

purposeofclaimingbenefits(HomeOfficeetal2008a).

WhiletherehasbeenanincreaseinthenumberofA8nationalsapplyingfortaxcreditsandbenefits

overthelastfouryears,theoverallnumberssuccessfullyapplyinghaveremainedlow.BetweenMay

2004andDecember2007,51,518applicationstoreceiveTaxCreditswereapproved,aswere89,281

applicationstoreceiveChildBenefit.Duringthesameperiod4,872applicationsforincome-based

JobseekersAllowance,IncomeSupportandStatePensionCreditwereallowedtoproceedforfurther

considerationofwhethertheclaimantsmeettheotherconditionsofentitlement(HomeOfficeetal

2008a).

Just121NiNoswereissuedtoBulgarianandRomaniannationalsbetweenJanuaryandDecember

2007forthepurposeoftaxcreditapplicationsand307wereissuedforbenefitspurposes(Home

Officeetal2007a-c,2008b)(seeFigure14).

LFSdataforQuarter4of2007suggeststhatalmostexactlythesameproportionofA8/A2nationals

claimchildbenefit(fourpercent)andtaxcredits(ninepercent)asUKnationals(fivepercentand10

percentrespectively).While26percentofUKnationalsareinreceiptofotherstatebenefits,the

proportionofA8/A2nationalsclaimingtheseislikelytobelessthanfivepercent.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Q1-2007 Q2-2007 Q3-2007 Q4-2007

Thou

sands

Refused

Allocated for taxcredit purposes

Allocated for benefitpurposes

Allocated foremployment purposes

Figure14.NiNoapplicationsfromA2nationals,2007

Source:BulgarianandRomanianAccessionStatistics,DepartmentforWorkandPensions

Table9.NumbersandproportionsofA8andA2nationalsclaimingchildbenefitandtaxcredits,compared

withUKnationals

Typeofbenefitclaimed NumbersofA8/A2 NumbersofUK ProportionofA8/A2 ProportionofUK

nationalsarrivedsince nationalsclaiming nationalsarrivedsince nationalsclaiming

2004claimingbenefits benefits 2004claimingbenefits benefits

Childbenefit 22,759 2,464,006 4.4% 4.5%

Taxcredits 47,687 5,225,001 9.2% 9.5%

Source:LabourForceSurveyandipprcalculations


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Students

Table10showsthatthenumberofhighereducationstudentsfromPolandincreasedby56percent

from4,325in2005/06to6,770in2006/07.Polishstudentsarenowthesixthlargestnationalgroup

ofEUstudentsintheUK.ThenumberofstudentsfromLithuaniaandLatviaalsoincreased,by53per

centand64percentrespectively(HigherEducationStatisticsAgency2008).

Theincreasednumberofstudentsfromthenewaccessioncountrieshascontributedtoanoverall

increaseinthenumberofEUstudentsintheUK,andthefinancialbenefitstotheUKinherentinthis.

OnestudyestimatesthatEUstudentspaidatleast180millionperyearintuitionfeesalonein2004-

2005(VickersandBekhradnia2007).

ipprsqualitativeresearchwithPolishmigrantshasfoundthatmanymigrantsenrolonpart-time

coursesasawayoflearningnewskillsandexploringcreativesubjectssuchasphotographyand

potteryandthatsuchopportunitiesareoftennotavailableatanaffordablepriceintheirhome

countries.Eveningorweekendclassarealsotakenasanopportunitytomeetpeople,makefriends

andimproveEnglish-languageskills.Somemigrantsmoveintocreativecareersfromlow-skilled,low-

paidjobsasaresultofdevelopingskillsthroughpart-timecourses.Somefeltthatsuchopportunities

wouldnotbepossibleintheirhomecountries.

OnefemalePolishmigrantinLondon(25-34agegroup)toldus:It[photography]wasahobbythat

becameapotentialearner.ItwasalwaysatthebackofmymindthatIneedtodosomethingwiththis,becauseIreallyloveit.

Workers

AccordingtotheLFS,86percentofA8andA2nationalswhoareworkingareemployees,and14per

centareself-employed.Morethanhalf(52percent)ofthosewhoareself-employedareagedunder

30,andapproachingthreequarters(73percent)ofself-employedaremen.Self-employedworkers

arehighlyconcentratedinLondon,withalmostthreeineveryfour(74percent)locatedinthecapital

(LFSandipprcalculations).AsFigure15shows,theproportionofthoseinself-employmentisfalling.

Table10.ToptenEUcountriesofdomicilein2006/07forHEstudentsinhighereducationinstitutionsintheUK

Countryofdomicile 2005/06 2006/07 %change

RepublicofIreland 16,790 16,255 -3

Greece 17,675 16,050 -9

Germany 13,265 14,010 6

France 12,455 13,070 5

Cyprus 7,205 8,710 21

Poland 4,325 6,770 56

Spain 6,225 6,350 2

Italy 5,460 5,990 10

Sweden 3,325 3,380 2

Portugal 2,885 3,010 4

TotalEU* 106,225 112,260 6

Note:*TotalEUexcludesUKandthe2007accessioncountriesofRomaniaandBulgaria

Source:HigherEducationStatisticsAgencyStudents2008


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Sectoralprofile

In2007,morethanhalf(52percent)ofthoseregisteringontheWRSwereintemporary

employment.Theagriculturalandbusiness,administrationandmanagementindustrysectorsemployveryhighproportionsoftemporaryworkers,whileamajorityofemployeesinthehospitalityand

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Employee Self-employed

Figure15.DistributionofA8/A2nationalsofworkingageintheUK,bytypeofemployment,2001-2007


0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Thousands

Admininstration, business & managerial services Hospital ity and catering

Agriculture Manufacturing

Food/fish/meat processing Health & medical services

Figure16.WRSregistrationsintop60industrysectors,May2004-December2007



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cateringandmanufacturingsectorsarepermanent(HomeOfficeetal2008a).

ThetopfivesectorsinwhichworkersregisteredtoworkbetweenMay2004andDecember2007were

administration,businessandmanagement5 (39percent),hospitalityandcatering(19percent),

agriculture(10percent),manufacturing(sevenpercent)andfood,fishandmeatprocessing(fiveper

cent).Theproportionsofmigrantsworkingineachofthesesectorshaveremainedbroadlyconstantoverthelastfouryears.However,thereareclearseasonalpatternsinsomesectors,mostnotably

agriculture,whichemployshigherproportionsofmigrantsinthesummermonths.

Figure17showsthefourindustrialsectors,asdefinedintheLFS,inwhichthehighestproportionof

A8/A2nationalsintheUKareemployedandcomparesratesofemploymentwiththoseofBritish

nationals.Ineachcase,asignificantlyhigherproportionofA8/A2nationalsareemployedthanamong

UK-bornnationals.Thispatternisparticularlystarkinrelationtomanufacturing,thesectorinwhich

32percentofA8/A2nationalsareemployed,incontrasttojust13percentofBritishnationals.

Figure18(nextpage)showsthatalthoughthemostcommonsectorsofworkareconsistentacrossthedifferentgroupsofA8nationals,therearesmalldifferencesintheproportionsofeachgroupof

nationalsworkingineachsector.

ExaminingtheoccupationsundertakenbyregisteredA8workersshowsthatasignificantmajority

workinfactoriesandwarehousesasoperativesandpackers.Theseasonalnatureofagricultural

employmentisagainapparent,withanincreaseinthenumberofpeopleworkingasfarmhands

betweenAprilandSeptember.

Themostsignificantnumbersofmigrantsregisteredtoworkinadministration,businessand

managementbetweenMay2004andSeptember2007wereinEastAngliaandtheMidlands.The

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Manufacturing Construction Distribution, hotels and restaurants Transport and communication

%o

fworkingagepopulation

A8/A2 nationals arrived since 2004 UK nationals

Figure17.A8/A2nationalsarrivedsince2004comparedwithUKnationals,byindustrysector,2007

Source:LFS2007,Q4

5.Themajorityofworkersinthissectorworkforrecruitmentagenciesandcouldbeemployedinavarietyofoccupations


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NorthEast,NorthWestandCentralregionsalsohavehighnumbersofmigrantsregistering

Floodgates or Turnstiles? Post-EU enlargement migration flows to (and from) the UK

Documents

Transcript of Floodgates or Turnstiles? Post-EU enlargement migration flows to (and from) the UK